.383, .487, .591 AL MVP, or should I say best player!

Skinpinch

I'm reading about MVP's etc..., and you can get into that whole nonsense of "they would be here with him or without him..." You know all the stuff that is basically irrelevant and out of said players control. We will call that the nonsense factor, which we will use later. But here are the big three candidates for the MVP....Jeter, Morneau, and Mauer.

Lets look at some real evidence. First, lets look at the guys contributions with the bat, measured in batter runs(runs above what an average replacement contributes). This is park adjusted, and considers all hitting events, and not simply looking at a faulty RBI total. In a nutshell it is near the top of the pyramind in measurement tools.

Jeter 37
Mauer 33
Morneau 32

OK, that should say something. Now, even if there is a +- margin of error, one can easily conclude that there isn't much difference at all between the three candidates, in fact, even with Jeter's lead lets just call them all EVEN with bat contributions.

But this measurement doesn't include men on hitting! Here are Jeter's numbers with Runners in Scoring Position, .385 AVG, .487 OB%, .591 SLG%. Monsterous! The other guys have done well there too! Again, even with a super slight edge by Jeter, lets call all three totally even at the bat.


BASE RUNNING!! Do people forget that this counts in baseball??? The obvious, stolen bases! Jeter 32 SB 5 CS!! That is equivalent to about an extra 10 more batter runs!! The other two have no extra value here. So Jeter has now added an extra 10 more offensive runs to his total, giving him an offensive lead without a doubt! Keep in mind that this does not account for 'non stolen base' baserunning. I don't have any actual figures on base advancing, but I am quite certain Jeter has done it better than the other two.

So total offensive value puts these three something like this(not actual men on numbers tabulated, but those are basically even)

Jeter 47
Mauer 33
Morneau 32


DEFENSE. Yes, people forget that these guys play defense. A SS's defensive contributions are more valuable to a team than a 1B. A cathers are too! As to how much is debatable, but there is no question that there is a difference. Knowing this, Jeter simply lands a hard knock down punch to an already staggering case of Morneau's MVP(or best player) candidacy. And by virtue of Mauer not playing as many games as Jeter (and the offensive advantage by Jeter), he to is knocked out.

NONSENSE FACTOR. Jeter's team was killed with injuries, and their supposed best hitter had the worst year of his career. His key hits, and his 'presence', and importance cannot be exceeded by anybody in the league(maybe equaled). The Twins MVP isn't even a hitter, it is simply the best pitcher in baseball, and I'm not sure how anybody doesn't see this. I'm quite positive that if Jeff Gilooly were to be sent to the TWins dugout by AL GM's that his target would be Johan Santana and not Morneau.

BEST AL PLAYER THIS YEAR = Derek Jeter
MVP this year = Derek Jeter

bri2327

Skin,

You said it all, thank you for that breakdown.

ToppsCo1lector

stown

Very impressive research, skin.

See, it is possible for you to present facts without coming off as a pompus arse

Well done!

Axtell

Of course it helps his numbers tremendously to sit in front of a roster of all stars, where pitchers can't pitch around him like other players.

Jeter is a very good hitter, but he's always benefitted from that lineup behind him.

ToppsCo1lector

<< <i>Of course it helps his numbers tremendously to sit in front of a roster of all stars, where pitchers can't pitch around him like other players.

Jeter is a very good hitter, but he's always benefitted from that lineup behind him. >>



How many Leadoff/#2 hitters get pitched around? Grrrreat arguement twit. Jete has one of the best eyes in the game, that's why he's able to work pitchers and get hits.

Axtell

damnit topps-

you are going to say if he didn't have a murder's row behind him he'd get anything to hit? It's ignorant at best to say that if he was on a team of guys who didn't crush the ball that he'd see anything worthwhile to hit.

ToppsCo1lector

lol, you conviently forget about Errods worst season ever, Matsui and Sheffield out for the majority of the season, and Cano out for a good time. Luckily Bernie Williams had a resurgent season, Melky Cabrera proved he's just ANOTHER successful Yankee prospect. Subtract all those guys I listed, then you see Jete have a career year and LEAD the Yankees to the playoffs. Without Jete, they wouldn't be in the playoffs.

bri2327

If you put 8 mediocre hitters around ANY good hitter in the history of baseball and they wouldnt see pitches either.

Typical no brains insight ( or lack of )

Dope

riccaboni

While this is Axtell you are rebutting, I feel the same way. Jeter, yes, is a great player, but if you put him on the Tigers, Padres, or pretty much any other playoff team but the Mets, he doesn't put up those numbers.

-Ian

Axtell

<< <i>lol, you conviently forget about Errods worst season ever, Matsui and Sheffield out for the majority of the season, and Cano out for a good time. Luckily Bernie Williams had a resurgent season, Melky Cabrera proved he's just ANOTHER successful Yankee prospect. Subtract all those guys I listed, then you see Jete have a career year and LEAD the Yankees to the playoffs. Without Jete, they wouldn't be in the playoffs. >>



With those players out, you still have Damon, Arod, and Giambi hitting around him.

Without Jeter, they wouldn't be in the playoffs? Do you really, truly honestly believe that?

Wait a minute, of course you do! Like you believe last year, if Arod hadn't been on the team, they would have been in the playoffs.

80sToyguy

I have to say I agree with Axtell on this too! I'm sorry Skinpinch, I do enjoy your insight, but you are just WRONG on this one. I don't care who you are, but when you see good pitches because the pitcher would much rather pitch to a singles hitter (Jeter), than get hammered by Giambi or A-rod or whoever else bats behind Jeter and essentially throws Jeter MORE HITTABLE pitches than anyone else maybe in baseball. I just can't stand the fact that you throw that out--WHY?!?!? I don't know about you, but if I'm Roy Halladay I would rather walk (or essentially not throw any DECENT pitches to) Justin Morneau and pitch to Bartlett or Tyner or whatever other nobody bats there (no offense to the Twins), than take my chances with A-Rod or Giambi. Everytime you want to throw that out I just can't understand you--a NONSENSE FACTOR--WTF? Is that a joke? I really can go on and on with this and Im not trying to make the arguement for one player over the other, forget everything I said about Morneau weeks ago. The MVP is the guy who, if NOT hitting for that particular team and someone else was in his place, would be missed the most. Take Morneau or Mauer out of Minny, take Big Papi out of Boston, Christ, take Vladdy out of Anahiem and what have you got? Those teams are FAR worse off than where they sit. The Yankees don't have Jeter and the beat goes on for them, and 99% of any impartial non-Yankee fans would say the same .
Jay

Axtell

<< <i>Also, I personally believe that the Yankees may not be in the playoffs without Jeter this year had the Red Sox not had such a collapse. However, I am quite confident that A-Rod has not made any difference in any year that he has been with the Yanks for all his so called great stats. They would have clearly made the playoffs without him, as they would have without Clemens in 99, 00, etc. I personally like Clemens for the gamer that he is but he is a lot like A-Rod in that he got the wins when they weren't as critical. Unlike a David Wells or a David Cone or a Jimmy Key (for all their inferior stats compared to a Clemens), that seemed to make so much more of an impact on the team winning. >>



So you think that Jeter's year this year is the difference between the yankees making the playoffs or not, but Arod winning an MVP with his numbers last year didn't make a difference?

'They would have clearly made the playoffs without him'....does the hate and ignorance against Arod ever end?

yankeeno7

Gosh, why even bother responding to Axhole. We all know he loves to hate Jeter and has a man crush on ARod.

Jeter is the clutch man as Ortiz is to the Red Sox but without so many home runs. He replaces that with other hits when it counts. So what if most of them don't go over the fence?

It's the bottom of the 9th, 2 out, bases loaded, tie game, game 7 of the World Series....I'll take Jeter over ARod ANY DAY up to the plate!

That's no disrespect to ARod's abilities, just when it comes to those situations, I think I would rather have Tom Glavine at the plate. (Who I may say isnt such a bad hitter for a pitcher)

onlyanumber

Jeter's going to win it this year for a few reasons:

So much publicity has been paid to the fact that Matsui and Sheffield went down, Cano was injured for a good amount of time there and ARod and Unit slumped at times during the season. It is generally viewed in the press that Jeter carried the Yankees on his back, and put up good numbers in doing so.

As great of a season as Morneau is having, not enough people know who he is. If you ask someone 'quick name a Twin', you'll hear 'Santana', 'is Kirby still playing?' or 'Mary Kate'. Furthermore, there are too many players on the Twins having great years--Morneau, Mauer, Santana and Liriano could all end up with votes and will be taking votes from one another.

David Ortiz could have seriously contended if the Red Sox stayed in the race. He has the numbers, but the same old excuse--he's a DH. Too mnay old school writers will hold that against him.

Jermaine Dye also could have contended if the White Sox made the playoffs.

Jeter will win, and will probably never be a top five in any MVP vote ever again. Morneau and Ortiz will get one eventually, just not this year.

dallasactuary

<< <i>The MVP is the guy who, if NOT hitting for that particular team and someone else was in his place, would be missed the most. Take Morneau or Mauer out of Minny, take Big Papi out of Boston, Christ, take Vladdy out of Anahiem and what have you got? Those teams are FAR worse off than where they sit. The Yankees don't have Jeter and the beat goes on for them, and 99% of any impartial non-Yankee fans would say the same . >>



Sorry, I'm not buying your definition. What you are essentially saying - whether you mean to or not - is that the MVP is the best player on an otherwise fair to average team. Players on great teams or poor teams need not apply. Move a .500 team up 4 games and into the playoffs - MVP. Move a .600 team up 8 games and you're not as valuable?

Lou Gehrig won the MVP in 1927 (because Ruth was ineligible under the odd rules of the time). By your logic, since the Yankees would still have run away with the pennant if Marv Throneberry had been their first baseman that year, Gehrig shouldn't have won. That, to borrow a phrase, is nonsense.

Peel back whatever rooting interests you have for or against any team or player, and it's really not the least bit controversial to acknowledge that Jeter is the best player in the American League this year. Of course, neither you nor I have the slightest idea how Jeter would have done this year in a different lineup or on a different team, so, again, it seems nonsensical to me to throw out what actually happened in favor of what you guess or imagine might have happened in a different reality.

Jeter will win the MVP this year because he deserves to win the MVP this year; at least that's the opinion of this impartial non-Yankee fan.

WinPitcher

Finally a voice of reason.

Well said Steve


Steve

DeutscherGeist

Skin,

I understand your analysis and rationale. However, I am surprised with this relatively recent use of batter runs to determine the quality of a hitter. You have used OPS+ before for your analysis and now it is not even a blip on the rader. What happened? New discovery of doing a more accurate analysis? How about adding OPS+ to the analysis. See if Jeter would still take the cake.

The Yankee line up is hardly murderer's row with all those injuries and A-Rod having an off year. Jeter is an amazing hitter. His OPS is really high, he gets on base and runs well on them, he tends to hit at critical moments where things count more. He does well with runners in scoring position. He seems to know how to get a hit. He is a legitimate mega star player.

Skinpinch

Deuterchgeist, batter runs has always been the better method. Batter Runs by base situation is the best method. I've used OPS often as a quick method, mostly in terms of yearly ranks in the league leaders(as that is readily available and easy to do).

80'stoyguy, Dallas's response should help with the nonsense factor, no need to elaborate.

Jeter's contributions with the bat are among the very top offensively. His baserunning puts him past his closest competitors. His defensive contributions make him a clear cut winner over his DH type competitors. The nonsense factor gives Jeter just as much positives as his competitors have(you know the whole teammate argument, the one that means squat).

Now, onto a real issue that was brought up, and that is how much does Jeter benefit from having some very nice hitters behind him? This is a legitimate question and is not part of the nonsense factor of "Where would his team be without him, or his team needs him more."

I can say that this has been looked at and unless there is a Barry Bonds type batting behind you, it doesn't make a whole lot of difference. It can make some difference though. Don't forget that every star player we are talking about here has THEIR SHARE OF GOOD HITTERS in the lineup too! They may not have a good 7-9, but the guys immediately behind them surely hold their own. Hold their own enough, where they all see a very similar share of pitches to hit. You may be talking about a one to three percent difference in getting pitches to hit, if there is a difference at all.

grote15

I'm a Mets fan, but I have to agree with the consensus here that Jeter deserves the MVP. If Chicago had made the playoffs, I'd say Dye would have had a shot, but Jeter's stats even without the gaudy HR total are very impressive. He leads Dye in BA, Runs, Doubles, SBs, OBP, walks and hits. Dye may still get a lot of votes because of the power numbers 43/119 vs. 14/96 as voters tend to be mesmerized by those stats, but the all around better player this year is Jeter and he's a better fielder than Dye is, too.

80sToyguy

Skinpinch, I'll just agree to disagree. I know you've looked into it more than I have and your level of research on these boards is second to none, but I just don't want to discuss it anymore. You made some good points, so did Dallas, honestly I could write a book about this because it just boils my blood, but I'm just going to leave it alone. I will agree that he probably will win it, I just don't agree he's the right choice!
Nuff' said!
Jay

bri2327

<< <i>Skinpinch, I'll just agree to disagree. I know you've looked into it more than I have and your level of research on these boards is second to none, but I just don't want to discuss it anymore. You made some good points, so did Dallas, honestly I could write a book about this because it just boils my blood, but I'm just going to leave it alone. I will agree that he probably will win it, I just don't agree he's the right choice!
Nuff' said!
Jay >>



As your sig line quote suggests, there probably wouldnt be anything pro-Yankees that you would agree with.

80sToyguy

Bri, I do hate the Yankees, but I have rarely had anything bad to say about Derek Jeter. Although there are teams I can't stand (the Braves being the other), there are players on both teams that I respect, and if I actually still had a team to cheer for (I'm sort of a transplanted Jays fan now because I moved to Toronto 5 years ago and the Spos are gone), I would never turn down Jeter, Chipper or Smoltz on my team.
I'm also a huge Montreal Canadiens fan (as you can see in my sig line), so growing up I hated the Bruins. Even still, Cam Neely was probably my second favorite player for about 10 years. And oh ya, I used to be a huge Mattingly fan, still am actually, it's too bad he had to hang it up before they (Yankees) started the big run.
Jay