1986 Fleer Basketball - How the mighty has fallen

gstarling

I know this set comes up a lot on the board with the two camps being:
1.) There are potentially tens of thousands of PSA 10s out there in wax, it's still overvalued
or
2.) This is the basketball set to own with all the rookies and hall of famers.

no matter where you fall (I personally fall somewhere in between and hope to own a high grade set one day), there is no debating how the prices have plummeted.

Complete PSA 9 Set Sells for a hair over $2,600

The SMR is obviously way off ($4,500), but how much farther can this set fall? I wish I had some free money at the moment (damn you 75 minis) as I think anything under $3K is a bargain on this set.

RipublicaninMass

That was a bargain, prolly not that easy to do a PSA 9 set out of a few boxes at what 10k each?

Boopotts

Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so.

chaz43

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>



Don't listen to Boopotts, he doesn't know what the hell he's talkin' about. I believe the 86' set will always be good. Watch it spike right before Jordan gets into the hall in 2008. It's a keeper and alot of people won't be opening those 86' packs because GAI or PSA will grade them. chaz

ctsoxfan

One thing is certain, there are tons of PSA 9's out there - even PSA 10's don't raise eyebrows anymore. I don't think there is a ton of wax still left, but there is enough to keep values of this set heading downward. It's still a classic, but it's a buyer's market for this set right now, and I don't see that changing.

GOODLIEU

I still think that this set is the top modern issue. With that said the average collectors out there may have some graded cards of the major stars (Jordan etc) but by and large do not have the commons graded. This is a factor that must be considered when speculating on future prices.

theczar

i sold 53 psa 10's on a mile high auction and got 6500 for them. i felt it was like Christmas. i was expecting 4000 if i prayed a lot. at 140 a common for a psa 10 in the SMR is way off. many can be had for less than half of that.

as far as michael going into the HOF---in my opinion that will do nothing for the value of that card or the set. one reason is that everyone knows he is going into the hall so it won't get a spike because of it and the other reason is that no one knows anything about the basketball HOF. who went in on the last induction? maybe 1 out of 100 can tell you. there are probably people who think jordan is now.

that set is not a scarce as one thinks and the market is proving it.

Ahmanfan

dumars barkley wilkins . common knowledge!!

Skinpinch

Most basketball collectors already have an '86 set already. I don't see many new basketball collectors entering the hobby any time soon. As far as graded? While there may not be a lot of unopened left, I can guarantee that there are a ton of untouched sets sitting in closets in small white boxes right now. Many collectors during that time bought sets and simply put them away. Those will be hiting the market in much more mass than will new buyers of these sets. The graded population will thus rise(if it hasn't started happening already)

larryallen73

as far as michael going into the HOF---in my opinion that will do nothing for the value of that card or the set. one reason is that everyone knows he is going into the hall so it won't get a spike because of it and the other reason is that no one knows anything about the basketball HOF.

100% agree. Bruce Sutter cards got a bump last year because it was a big surprise... if not an out and out SHOCK that he got into the HOF. I am pretty sure that 100% of the people MJ will get into the hof one day. It's as close to a guarantee as there ever was.

chaz43

<< <i>as far as michael going into the HOF---in my opinion that will do nothing for the value of that card or the set. one reason is that everyone knows he is going into the hall so it won't get a spike because of it and the other reason is that no one knows anything about the basketball HOF.

100% agree. Bruce Sutter cards got a bump last year because it was a big surprise... if not an out and out SHOCK that he got into the HOF. I am pretty sure that 100% of the people MJ will get into the hof one day. It's as close to a guarantee as there ever was. >>





We'll see. chaz

daveryan2001

I've got a whole box full of 86 Fleer that I haven't touched in 15 years, just
sitting on a shelf.

I'm sure there are lots of people like me.

I'm sure all those cards grade minimum of 8, some 9's, who knows, maybe a 10 or 2.

The price of the commons can only go down.

Having said that, it is still a great set, but not nearly as scarce as the Star sets
that preceded it.

TheCARDKid

I think there's still alot of downside with this set, especially in PSA 10.

The supply and demand dynamics are just horrible. With alot of high priced commons, one out of every 10 or 20 cards submitted is a 10! 30, 40 PSA 10's out of 500 or 600 cards submitted. Nightmare. If demand goes up, more and more of these cards are going to come out of the albums in closets.

theczar

dumars barkley wilkins . common knowledge!!

i am glad you think it is common knowledge. good luck with future purchase of the 1986 basketball. like i have said before it is a nice set, it is not a rare set and i would take the 1948, 1957 or 1962 in lesser grade than to chase after that thing.

Boopotts

<< <i>

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>



Don't listen to Boopotts, he doesn't know what the hell he's talkin' about. I believe the 86' set will always be good. Watch it spike right before Jordan gets into the hall in 2008. It's a keeper and alot of people won't be opening those 86' packs because GAI or PSA will grade them. chaz >>




Riiight. We'll all just get in line to take advice on the future value of Jordan cards from a clown who has MJ as his avatar

lawnmowerman

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>

I agree 100%. It could not have been said better!
Matt

Ahmanfan

1 out of every 10 grades at a 10? wow! I've never hit a 10 and I've sent in 50+ that I have cherry picked out of probably 1000!

RipublicaninMass

<< <i>

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>

I agree 100%. It could not have been said better!
Matt >>



Let's see one sell for less>>>

Boopotts

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>

I agree 100%. It could not have been said better!
Matt >>



Let's see one sell for less>>> >>




I'm willing to bet that the next one that comes up for sale in PSA 9 sells for less than this one.

jradke4

How can you say there are sooo many 10's just sitting out there with all the centering issues with this set.

How much would it cost to have the set graded alone. Some could be done at the $5 level but others couldnt. To me its not a bad price, I would love to see it drop and I will pick up a set. My set has many OC cards. Mine was put together in random order, at a local card shop, in 1986 out of opening a few cases. So I assume that my centering issues must be normal.

aro13

PSA is approaching 100,000 graded 86 Fleer basketball cards. Around 4.5% of all cards graded have recieved a 10 and 34% of all cards have received a 9. Certain cards are still going to remain relatively tough. All cards #'d by 11 will always be difficult in a 10. While set prices seem to have dropped drastically, I have not seen a drop in the prices of the HOF rookies in PSA 9 in the past year.

Boopotts

"How can you say there are sooo many 10's just sitting out there with all the centering issues with this set."

You are forgetting to pay proper respect to.... THE POWER OF ROTOTRIM!!!

5STAT

One thing is certain, there are tons of PSA 9's out there - even PSA 10's don't raise eyebrows anymore. I don't think there is a ton of wax still left, but there is enough to keep values of this set heading downward. It's still a classic, but it's a buyer's market for this set right now, and I don't see that changing.

I've had 1st hand knowledge of this issue since it came out...there are still alot of unopened boxes and even cases out there....more than most people would believe. With this set, the people who have it..REALLY have it...and sell it off slowly on the market.
There are dealers here in MA sitting on multiple boxes...but why would they sell it...they're not scared of the unopened market. 1st, most have had cases of the stuff since it was brand new...or bought in right before it exploded. So they bought boxes at $100-$400 each....do you think the care or NEED to sell it now? No, they sell a box off here and there..keep the market supplied and the prices stay up.
Some of these same dealers have 5,000 count boxes of the stuff laying around....same deal...they have "nothing" into the stuff...so why dump it on the market?

Some of the recent problem is that one seller in particular sold off a few monster boxes and wham..the pops went nuts because they went to a big time submitter.

Do a little search of the 86 stuff that is selling on Ebay....alot comes from MA, RI,CT and NY......that is one lot that was broken up from one seller and sold off to the guys he does shows with. Then they all sold to a few friends from different shows..and so on and so on....

It's the same stuff changing hands for the last year..that I know of.

Bottom line....there's way more of this stuff out there than people want to believe....BUT..all in all...I agree, when Jordan goes to the Hall....it will spike!! His 87 Fleer will spike more in proprotion..so put your $$$ there!!

chaz43

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Confucious say: Never try to catch a falling knife.

Chaz's senseless ramblings on 89 Upper Deck aside, I think one almost faultless piece of advise you can give yourself or anyone else in this hobby is to NOT buy anything where the price is in decline until it's absolutely bottomed out. And by bottomed out I mean 'hasn't further depreciated for at least one year'. The hobby is full of stuff that once cost a fortune, and 'looked like' a fantastic deal when it lost 80% of it's high dollar value until said item lost another 15% of that value. Examples abound, but one of the most notable is the '89 Donruss Griffey. That card was once trading in the $1500 range, and I'm sure no shortage of guys jumped on it when it dropped to $300, figuring that it couldn't drop any further. Well, guess what-- it did.

If you're interested in this set I'd wait in the background until the price stabilizes or starts to creep upwards. Who knows how far it could fall? If you would have told someone 15 years ago that '86TT Cansecos would be trading for $1 each raw in 2006 they never would have believed you. When it comes to sportscards it almost impossible to predict what the basement price will be until the card(s) finally gets there and stays there for a year or so. >>



Don't listen to Boopotts, he doesn't know what the hell he's talkin' about. I believe the 86' set will always be good. Watch it spike right before Jordan gets into the hall in 2008. It's a keeper and alot of people won't be opening those 86' packs because GAI or PSA will grade them. chaz >>




Riiight. We'll all just get in line to take advice on the future value of Jordan cards from a clown who has MJ as his avatar >>




Verrrry Funny Boopotts. I'm laughing so hard I'm having a hard time gettin off the toilet..... chaz

SDavid

I've had 1st hand knowledge of this issue since it came out...there are still alot of unopened boxes and even cases out there....more than most people would believe. With this set, the people who have it..REALLY have it...and sell it off slowly on the market.
There are dealers here in MA sitting on multiple boxes...but why would they sell it...they're not scared of the unopened market. 1st, most have had cases of the stuff since it was brand new...or bought in right before it exploded. So they bought boxes at $100-$400 each....do you think the care or NEED to sell it now? No, they sell a box off here and there..keep the market supplied and the prices stay up.
Some of these same dealers have 5,000 count boxes of the stuff laying around....same deal...they have "nothing" into the stuff...so why dump it on the market?

It's nice to hear that some dealers are actually intelligent and responsible enough to avoid crashing their own market. It annoys me to no end when certain dealers continuously crank out BGS 9.5's or PSA 9's/10's of the same cards until they're nearly worthless. Obviously, they're well within their right to do that, but the stupidity of it annoys me.

Boopotts

God bless you, chaz. The board wouldn't be the same without you.

chaz43

<< <i>God bless you, chaz. The board wouldn't be the same without you. >>




Ditto. chaz

fensfan

Great discussion on a set that, regardless of who is right on where prices are headed in near term, will always be a classic!
A note on the comments about the basketball HOF and whether induction means anything to values for an icon like MJ: I've attended the last 6-7 induction ceremonies and can tell you that interest _ as measured in attendance _ has increased significantly every year. Lines literally went out the door this year with people waiting for Charles Barkley's autograph. He only signed for an hour and more than half of that line never got a sniff (and how much of his stuff is available cheap on ebay?)
I appreciate the difference between high-grade cards and autographs, but the scene around MJ's induction will be exponentially greater. And that kind of interest almost always translates in late buying for high-end RCs and 2nd-year cards, even for mega-stars like MJ.
I agree though, that the 2nd-year MJ will likely get a greater percentage boost from the average collector, including youngsters just getting into the hobby and those to come.

5STAT

(and how much of his stuff is available cheap on ebay?)

As referring to Barkley....yes, his stuff is still cheap...pretty much because if he didn't play for your team...the rest of the world hated him!! lol

His mouth-attitude and off court antics kept him out of favorable light in many collectors eyes. NOT as bad as Rodman....but....

RipublicaninMass

2600 is less than 20 bucks a card. how coul dit be worth much less?




<< <i>I'm willing to bet that the next one that comes up for sale in PSA 9 sells for less than this one. >>



I will bet you one manute bol rookie it will sell for more!

onegaucho

Glad to see I wasn't the only one to catch this auction sale of $2600 last week.
I recently bought a set of 9s for $2100 (minus the Jordan). With the Jordan normally going above $1k, I was shocked to see this sale price.

I still think it's a quality set that will stand the test of time. I mainly bought the set (I already have a PSA 8 set that I put together years ago when prices were ridiculously high for 9s) as an investment. I figure that I should be able to make a little bit of money selling them as singles. We'll see...

ElToroLoco

The 86 Fleer set is THE set to own for generations to come. I wouldn't worry about values of it. Personally, I'll buy 9's all day for rock bottom prices. Graded sets have stabilized, only because they have been trading hands.

Littletweed

Nice thread from 3 yrs ago

I've never collected this set, what's the change since then?

weinhold

Sheesh, I read nearly the entire thread until I realized most of the comments are from three years ago.

Doing an eBay Advanced Search, it looks like a complete set of 1986 Fleer Basketball in PSA 9 (including stickers) sold for $4,600 via open auction. I can't extrapolate a lot based on one sale, but it sure looks significantly healthier than the set that sold three years ago which started this thread. Interesting! Perhaps collectors continue to view the 1986 Fleer as "THE" basketball set.

alnavman

this is a great thread, the only thing I don't agree with is that the number of folks who may take on this set in the future is limited....I currently have just started on my 88/89 set in earnest and hope to back track to the 86/87. Right now I think the economy is keeping some folks from starting new sets. That is part of the reason I finally decided to start to finish my 88/89 first. I previously had most of the stars graded 9 so now I'm working on the remainder and have much success. Next I'll be going back to 87/88. al.

MBMiller25

I built this set late last year and into early 2009 in PSA 9 with Stickers for $3500.00. I was very fortunate that at that time, MS Cashback was going on and I purchased some lots on EBAY and got 30% cashback. Honestly, I dont keep an active eye on closing PSA 9 prices, but when I check commons, are selling for at or around the same prices I paid last year. I agree with alot of the comments above that this set is nowhere near as rare as some people would like to think it is.

Allen

I love this set and will collect it no matter what the market is. I recently picked through my hoard of raw sets and submitted about 35 total cards to PSA. Looking through all of them reminded me how much I like this set.

Ripken

Here's what you get when you build an all PSA 10 1986-87 Fleer set.

RonBurgundy

What boopotts said. Next.

Stone193

This has been a good debate.

I agree with Boo's post with stuff like that - except for the shot on Chaz.

And, I do think that it's quite possible that MJ going into the "hall" will have very little impact since people expect it - and anyone who desires his RC probably already has it.

In recent yrs, I've noticed that for BB - anticipation of the "hall" hasn't had the effect on RC cards that it did in the early 90s with respect to the surge on purchase - e.g. of Yount and Brett and certain pitchers - and unfortunately - later there was a 'correction' on their value.

Like when ya buy a new car - when ya buy a card - one is better off just being happy with their purchase and move on - no matter what happens to the asking price. Life's short and the hobby makes it tolerable for me.

mike

ndleo

This set is still one of the blue chip sets in the hobby. I bought a BGS 9.5 Jordan RC because I always wanted one. It will probably appreciate more than my house.

EB22

I was about to say the auction link dosen't work, untill I noticed it was 3 years ago

Great set, but I still say they should have serial numbered it to 100 sets and included a piece of jersey patch with a signeture on it!