PROMOTED COINS

bidask

What are the coin series that historically have been promoted? What are the characteristics that make them easily promoted? What coin series are not easily promoted and why?

Conder101

In general, in order to be promoted the coins have to be relatively common so the promoter can acquire a good sized supply, and they need to be available in better condition so as to be visually appealing. This makes Morgan and peace dollars a natural, state quarters, late date walkers, silver eagles, generic gold etc.

SFDukie

Thanks for the query bidask, and the reply Conder.
This is a subject which is referenced frequently ("a candiate for promotion") etc, and for the life of me I don't really understand the process. I've seen the term applied to moderns and classics, to series which exist in small pops and large. How many folks does it take to "move the market"? How is the process achieved?
I realize that posters may have differing ideas about what constitutes "promotable" and "promoted", but I'd love to see different opinions on this.
Don

BobGreene

Commemorative coinage.

SFDukie

<< <i>Commemorative coinage. >>


I've seen that series mentioned before. How was it done? By whom? when? (I think I know the "why"
I've read here that morgans were promotable in MS because so many exist in those grades-yet by comaprison, far fewer commems exist in those grades (realizing that they are nonetheless common)...

ElKevvo

I think classic Commems are currently in the promotion loop. Why? Because I have heard them mentioned by several dealers that they are going to be the next best thing, currently undervalued, etc. Since I have been working on a classic commem type set for a loooong time this is interesting news.

One style is 'in' one year and out the next and something else is the 'in' thing. IMO no one in particular causes this, but someone who is respected says 'I think that xxxs's are undervalued and rarer than most people think' and that gets parroted over and over and then folks start buying them up, supply tightens, prices rise, and it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy of sorts. There are some series that will be perpetually undervalued just because the demand will always be low due to unattractiveness of the design, size, ease of grading, etc.

Just a couple of thoughts..

K

RichieURich

There needs to be an adequate supply so that the promotion can work. It wouldn't do to try to promote, say, 1802 half dimes of which only 35 or so are known.

Coxe

Conder is completely right. Look at the promoted coins over the past few decades. Bugs Buny Franklins, Spitting Eagle Morgans, Poor Man's Double Die Lincolns, coins like those. They have something interesting about them but are available in quantity and are easily picked out. Modern key dates are another. The 1931-S cent, 1950-D nickel and so on. Red book mintage figures can help support their claims that they are rare keys when, in fact, a larger fraction of the original mantages are available for those dates than most others in BU rolls.

As for a series that has been and is easily promoted, the winner has to be the Lincoln cent. Kids have had penny boards for practically all generations alive today. Double dies, small dates, VDBs, steelies, .... are a very fertile place to promote and misrepresent rarity.

bidask

Any idea on real dealer to collector spreads on these promoted issues? I would imagine they are significantly higher than other collectable coins. Everytime someone writes a book, I ask myself 'Could this series be promoted?'

Coxe

Writing a book to promote a series or a collecting genre is not always some evil scheme. I know in Morgan VAMs this is genuinely out of interest (and is overwhelmingly authored by serious collectors not fulltime dealers) with an eye on making money on varieties they do have too. I have a few books in various stages of development (mostly going nowhere because I cannot devote time to them) hoping to promote what I find interesting and to also bring premiums on coins I have and know should bear such premiums .... hopefully when I bring mine to maket. But you see specialists like Rick Snow, Kevin Flynn, Rob Joyce and similar. They genuinely are passionate about the coins they are promoting. In the course of their passions they have gained knowledge. They might be promoting it and reaping rewards as a consequence but they are also selling something of value. This was a consideration I had when I wrote some of the wiki pages at vamworld.com on esoteric VAMs. No money in it for me unless htese ones that I have a few of bring future premiums.

cladking

A lot of the cycling from series to series is just human nature. Something happens to cause
some area to be a natural progression or everyone just migrates into some area. The promoted
coins are where this is engineered rather than natural. As has been stated there have to be enough
of the item that the promoters can acquire a position in it and few enough that many buyers have to
turn to the promoters. Sometimes there is little more required than to simply raise the buy price on
the item once you've acquired as many as possible at the "regular price". The guides and greysheet
will pick up on increasing prices pretty quickly and rising prices can feed on itself.

bidask

When a coin series is being promoted, whether engineered or naturally, are the plus and minuses as a result of dealer to collector transactions or dealer to dealer transactions, or both? Again, anybody have a thought on the spreads of such coins, ( in other words if a coin series is being promoted and the bid/ask spread in CDN says one thing, do you think dealers are honoring the published spreads so to speak or, because they have knowledge the coins are being promoted, have much wider spreads since it may not represent a true market?)

cladking

<< <i>When a coin series is being promoted, whether engineered or naturally, are the plus and minuses as a result of dealer to collector transactions or dealer to dealer transactions, or both? Again, anybody have a thought on the spreads of such coins, ( in other words if a coin series is being promoted and the bid/ask spread in CDN says one thing, do you think dealers are honoring the published spreads so to speak or, because they have knowledge the coins are being promoted, have much wider spreads since it may not represent a true market?) >>



In the run-up back in the late-'70's it was a common ploy to raise buy offers and then refuse
most of the coins that came in. Collectors and those who weren't insiders wouldbn't be aware
that coins had to be superb to bring the increased bids. This happened again, but to a lesser
extent in the late-'80's. At least this time they had to add "sight-seen" so wouldbe sellers knew
that prices might not be real. Promoters generally are far more interested in running up the bid
price and creating a buzz and a demand than they are in actually buying a lot of the promoted
coin.

There are lots of promotable coins that have never really been promoted. Coins like modern
proof sets or low grade buffalo nickels exist in enough quantity that they can be accumulated
but are difficult enough that large percentages removed from the market will create a temporary
"shortage". High grade three cent silver or modern mint sets are not so promotable because it
would prove difficult to acquire large quantities. It might also be more difficult to drum up a lot
of interest in these areas since they aren't as sexy or flashy as most promoted coins. The big-
gest requirement is that they can make a few phone calls and buy a large percentage of a com-
mon coin.

Spreads will narrow when they accumulate the coins and then widen as they are dispersed.

bidask

<< <i>

<< <i>When a coin series is being promoted, whether engineered or naturally, are the plus and minuses as a result of dealer to collector transactions or dealer to dealer transactions, or both? Again, anybody have a thought on the spreads of such coins, ( in other words if a coin series is being promoted and the bid/ask spread in CDN says one thing, do you think dealers are honoring the published spreads so to speak or, because they have knowledge the coins are being promoted, have much wider spreads since it may not represent a true market?) >>



Promoters generally are far more interested in running up the bid
price and creating a buzz and a demand than they are in actually buying a lot of the promoted
coin.



Thank you, that was my sense too.

coinguy1

<< <i>..... How many folks does it take to "move the market"? How is the process achieved?.... >>

If/when it is the right person/company, only one is required. In fact, I believe that is usually the case, though sub-promotions sometimes arise.

Among other things, a "promoter" needs: a large enough potential selling outlet; connections to be able to obtain sufficient quantities of the coins to be promoted; a good story or history to go along with/help the promotion; find a niche that is large enough to make it worthwhile to promote, yet not so large as to make it difficult to move prices and/or absorb the coins before selling them; good marketing.

In my opinion, it amounts to controlled market manipulation, though that doesn't mean the promoted coins weren't cheap before the promotion started. Sometimes the promotions are extremely orderly and long lasting, while other times they are wilder and shorter lived. Typically the people who buy in early have the opportunity to do well, while those who get in late don't fare well at all.

SFDukie

I appreciate the insights!
Don