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5000 Post Giveaway - Winners announced, Congratulations to ALL.

I am long overdue in conducting a giveaway. I have been very fortunate to have won my fair share of them and now it's MY turn to give BACK. Please read the guidelines because this is a multi-tiered Giveaway!

OK, so let's see how I am going to do this....

I suppose ONE prerequisite would be to "Guesstimate" the Date and Time I actually make the 5000th post. Yeah, that will do. But there is MORE!

Whoever is closest to the actual date and time of the post will be declared First Place Winner AND whoever is next closest will be the Second Place Winner.

Let's make this uniquely interesting and have a GRAND PRIZE. Whoever comes closest but not necessarily THE CLOSEST will win a very special Giveaway and here are what the guidelines for this Giveaway will be. I'm thinking of having to use your Numismatic knowledge, insight, gut instinct, WRITING ABILITIES and of course, your experience in all areas. This abilty to WRITE AND to Guess the time are both factors, with the main objective first being the writing.

If you are unclear on this, read it again or ask me, provided I am around to answer.

Let's make the Topic, "The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it", (your sincerest perspective) as well as "How you foresee the State of Numismatics a year from now and on what grounds you base your opinion".

"Keep it pithy" but DO feel free to take as much time and words necessary to make your argument credible and convincing.

The Grand Prize will be a Gift Certiciate for 5 Economy or Modern submissions - whatever you bag is.
GRAND PRIZE WINNER IS............ BOCHIMAN. (XBob, Richardsship and several others did a fine job)

The First Place Prize will be a PCGS certified coin worth AT LEAST $50.
FIRST PLACE WINNER IS ....................... racycyca. (13 minutes from dead on)

The Second Place Winner will receive a number of "Certifable" Uncirculated Raw Coins to do with as he or she sees fit.
SECOND PLACE WINNER IS .......................... BGMAN (17 minutes from dead on!)

I'd like to thank each and every one of you for taking part in my giveaway. I found the writings to be very refreshing and it was actually fun to read every one of them. It was tight. There were some really tough decisions to make. image
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    LALASD4LALASD4 Posts: 3,602 ✭✭✭
    9/21/06 11:31 a.m.image

    Nice coins are selling for moon money and junk coins are depreciating. And whoever can predict the future will make money and those who can't won't.image

    Greed is the only factor involve because that affects all other factors like supply and demand, investment, the health of the economy, etc..
    Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent.
    San Diego, CA


    image
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    MICHAELDIXONMICHAELDIXON Posts: 6,431 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great idea!
    10/10/06 at 5:36pm

    For me, I have always seen a drop in sales during the August to October time frame. This has been true whether it was in the store front, shows or internet sales. I have always attributed it to school beginning and the parents having to pay college tuition, school clothes, etc. I believe collector coins will pick back up and continue to be strong.

    I don't see generic gold being a hot seller with the price tending to be on the downward swing. I bought several "ugly" $10 Indians when the price was down and nobody would look at them. Once gold started taking off, I couldn't keep gold to include the "ugly" $10 Indians. Generic coins, as a whole, will probably be flat for several years before they start selling really well again.

    Fall National Battlefield Coin Show is September 5-7, 2024 at the Eisenhower Hotel in Gettysburg, PA. Thanksgiving Battlefield Coin Show is November 29-30, 2024. WWW.AmericasCoinShows.com
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    BoomBoom Posts: 10,165
    Before this gets going as I hope it does, (Thanx for posting) I'd like to interject that I have noticed a very distinct drop off in premiums in certain series, regardless of how PQ a coin is, at the Big Houses as well as eBay (It's almost a Ghost Town)

    Are the majority of series' falling off as well, as evidenced by the aforementioned and the sheer # of Registry set owners bailing out?



    edited for spelling corrections
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    DrWhoDrWho Posts: 562 ✭✭
    9/22, 9:21AM EST
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    I read the durn thingy just don't care to type a term paper..... Like the guessing game better.....


    9/22/06 6:35PM EST

    If I win I would like to donate the prize to eBay they need the money.....
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    Steve27Steve27 Posts: 13,274 ✭✭✭
    9/23 11:00 am

    "The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it"

    Coins are mostly round; minting processes facilitate it.
    "It's far easier to fight for principles, than to live up to them." Adlai Stevenson
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    9/28/2006 at 9:00 pm Pacific time. Will edit to answer the topics posed.

    1. "The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it"
    The state of numismatics is growing strong. As a new collector, I would say that the current numismatic industry is experiencing a bit of pitching back and forth, first of all, as the precious metals market experiences large fluctuations, as well as the influx of new collectors entering the hobby. I believe this influx is having an impact on the "moderns" market such that what was previously discounted and basically ignored, is now being considered viable. I have seen the shift in the acceptance of modern coinage personally. As an example, SBA dollars that used to get immediately taken to the bank now have a place in display cases. As probably is typical, new collectors shift or expand from the moderns into the older coinage, which also is resulting in an increase in demand for the 18th and 19th century pieces.

    The internet brings numismatics to the doorstep of every collector. If the local coin store doesn't have what is being sought after, it can be purchased online.

    I believe the phrase "Two steps forward, one step back" adequately describes the current field of numismatics.



    2. "How you foresee the State of Numismatics a year from now and on what grounds you base your opinion"
    I believe it is a rapidly expanding field exponentially due to the number of new collectors. They want a piece of history as well, hence an increase in demand. Five people have been attracted to the hobby because of my collecting. A year from now, the new dollars will be out. The market is glutted with new coinage. Prices and values will continue to rise.



    Edited to post answer and "pm" to the time of day.
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    9/22/06 at 12 noon.

    I feel that the mint is trying to do a lot to keep the masses interested in the coin market by putting out varied products that may have wide appeal (the state quarters, the Jefferson nickels, the upcoming presidential series). Overall I think there is a lot of new interest in the market, but coin and bullion prices, the economy, oil, politics and pure speculation are all juxtapositioning to have a negative effect on the coin market. If the world view remains calm and our economy stays strong, the market should be able to stay moderately positive, but without the spikes seen in certain markets (bullion in particular) over the last year. If there is a lot of geopolitical turmoil and a lot of worry about the economy, money will come out of the stock market, with bullion and coins possibly being seen as a safe harbor resulting in short term spikes followed by massive sell-offs. Considering these scenarios, I believe the coming year will see some strengthening of the coin market, with the economy chugging along at a reasonable rate and energy prices will continue to fall and gas prices ending around the $2/gallon range. This should provide enough disposable income so those in the hobby can feed their need to acquire coins they want but not a tremendous amount of excess money so that the prices reach astronomic proportions. Hope this is the kind of response you were looking for and thanks for the challenging giveaway!!!

    Perry
    TheZooKrew
    Morgan, modern sets, circulated Kennedys, and Wisconsin error leaf quarter Collector
    First (and only - so far) Official "You Suck" Award from Russ 2/9/07
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    9/27 @ 9:27 AM
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    segojasegoja Posts: 6,127 ✭✭✭✭
    9/25 3:16 PM

    Will come back on the rest
    JMSCoins Website Link


    Ike Specialist

    Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986

    image
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    I have no idea when the 5000th post will be - guess 9/28/06 at 9:11 AM



    << <i>"The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it" >>



    The first factor today’s Numismatics is the best of times and the worst of times.
    The best of times for auctions, Key date material, high end traditional material (Pre 1942) and many new collectors entering into the market. The worst of times for eBay auctioneers (to many of the same coin auctioned at the same time), for moderns’, we are swimming in 69 material while the 70 market is tenuous, dealers as well as collectors do not want to leave anything on the table (money) so that making money becomes more important than collecting coins.

    The second factor of the “State of Numismatics” is the internet. The internet has changed fundamentally the state of Numismatics forever. The standard relationship between grading services, dealers, vest pocket dealers and collectors is now non-existent. There is now no difference between any of these groups and the one only knows who they are buying from by looking at there presentation on the Internet.

    Lastly, the grading services have removed the requirement of expertise in selling coins. One does not have to know about the different varieties of the 1856 Flying cent to sell one. One just have to know the grade and what grading service one is looking for, then go out and locate it. In a sense all of the groups listed above are now just becoming brokers for coins. Sorry about that David Bowers.



    << <i>"How you foresee the State of Numismatics a year from now and on what grounds you base your opinion". >>



    At this point, I am unable to discuss this for I do not want our competition to know our plans.

    Todd
    Todd Abbey
    800.954.0270
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    xbobxbob Posts: 1,979
    9/25 5:00pm forum post time (I guess that's pacific time zone)

    In regard to moderns I think the hobby is on the decline and will hit a low after the state quarter program ends. I think it's already started. The Mint isn't fully to blame but they are getting greedy and over saturating. With state quarters, they helped spark so much new collector interest ! But doing the Presidential dollars as a cross-over with the state quarters is a mistake. I also feel that there are few high population states left in the program so the percentage of new collectors lured into the hobby as a result will drop. People like complete sets and proof/mint sets that complete the state quarters will also have an incomplete Presidential dollars by default - designed to keep the masses buying but my opinion is that they won't. Few people have "pride" in old dead presidents like they do with their home state, or even other patriotic themes. First lady golds? I'll be shocked if any sell really well. The Mint is cheapening everything by offering too much. All these Mint products are taking collector money away from...

    Classics. Again with the state quarters nearing an end I think a lot of dumping will be happening once the program ends. The falling prices and loss of value may discourage many from collecting interests including collecting classics. People like buying while values are shooting up. Investors/speculators are going to bail their classics when the market starts dropping - to minimize loss. Personally, I am looking forward to a down market so I can afford more. The monster toned coin phenomenon might take a while to flatten out. I think at least for those of us that read coin news a lot (mostly here for me) there is certainly an added sense of skepticism of whether holdered coins have been quick toned artificially or if the toning has occurred naturally over a long period of time. I think the TPGs could help keep the toner market strong if they develop better AT detection methods and market them well (another "TM" slab perhaps image).

    edited to add: I forgot the "in a year part". -
    A lot of my theories are based on the State Quarter program and it's end in 2008. I think the casual collector, or which there are many, will drop of with the SQ program. I see a year from now being not much different from now. Continued saturation of Mint products can also continue to draw money away from dealer sales and classic coins. But the known products for next year coming out of the Mint don't have much appeal so far (IMHO). We'll see what the Mint has up their sleeve (and I hope it's a 100 year anniversary reissue of the high relief Saint!). 2 years from now is where I see the big drop off.

    Overall I think those who are collecting because they "just plain enjoy it" will continue to collect across the board - Mint Products, Classics, Colorized, Waffled, etc... Whatever floats your boat is fine if you are having fun with it. We all like to see our collection value go up, but those doing it primarily for investment reasons may have another thing coming. That's my opinion anyway. I'm optimistic for the true collectors. A market decline would be a good thing when your a buyer.
    -Bob
    collections: Maryland related coins & exonumia, 7070 Type set, and Video Arcade Tokens.
    The Low Budget Y2K Registry Set
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    TorinoCobra71TorinoCobra71 Posts: 8,043 ✭✭✭
    Sept. 28th @ 5pm EST.

    TorinoCobra71

    image
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    BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,319 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting, and good, way to do a contest Boom.

    Let's see.....

    Sept 25th, 2006 at 11:36pm (West Coast time)

    Now, for the editorial....

    The State of Numismatics now and the factors that have facilitated it:
    We are coming out of a golden age for Numistmatics. We have seen a "perfect storm" that has helped get us there.
    We had the market runup for stock in the late '90s; that infused cash into people wanting to do something with it. We had the US Mint introduce the State Quarters program in '99 that gave interest back into pocket change. We had Ebay become a more major player into the market through auctions where people could stay at home and buy coins instead of having to know aobut shows and travel.
    There was even the creation, and increase, in boards like this one, where people could share knowledge and facilitate the hobby.

    All of those combined to create a golden age. Increases across the board. New people buying while established collectors upgraded. Money was abundant for many. Things were thrilling. It wasn't only key dates that increased. New blood was coming in by leaps and bounds.

    Now, that golden age is ending, as all golden ages do. Energy prices are increasing. Inflation has crept in. Gold has increased and people that "played" in the coin market are also, and sometimes exclusively, playing in the bullion market trying to make an "investment" buck.
    Coin doctors are still reaping in the money but are also damaging the hobby as they get better and better and so smart collectors are more wary and some newer ones just get taken and then leave the hobby.

    The grading services are getting harangued by people because they aren't perfect but are expected to be. Some slabs that were thought "safe-havens" are now known to be very questionable when it comes to a coins "authenticity" in look (ie....toning). The big money is still playing at the high end but many of the middle collectors are getting more wary/scared and that is causing a general down tone to the market.

    We are experiencing the dip that comes after any great run. I don't think it will be a complete fall, but it will be a sizeable dip in many areas.

    How you foresee the State of Numismatics a year from now and on what grounds you base your opinion?
    To continue with the above, I think a year from now, as we near the end of the SHQ program and a USMint that has taken too many liberties with collectors (ie...tons of commems each year, re-releasing product that was deemed "gone", changing the rules in the middle of the game, etc), we will still be in a dip.

    The USMint won't make a quick adjustment (they want money) and we will see the Commem market glutted (for newer commems). Some may become the "keys" later on, but due to the still higher volume, I wouldn't plan on it.

    The market as a whole will still be lower than it is today. FUN will be a barometer and will be the "best" show of the year but won't be as good as the others. Lesser attendance due to many factors and there will be some borderline dealers who go part-time, get real bad (as they do anything to make a buck), or just go back to some other vocation. The normal collector will be hurt by the actions of many who just want to find the "greater fool".

    Well, those are my thoughts...

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

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    22nd September 9.11pm

    The coin market this side of the pond is still strong ( well at least my sales of US graded coins! ) with more and more of my coins staying this side rather than taking a transatlantic flight .

    Serious coin collecting is still a minor hobby but the number of coins on sites like ebay.co.uk continue to grow.
    Tony Harmer
    Web: www.tonyharmer.org
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    19Lyds19Lyds Posts: 26,485 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm thinking Thursday evening (9/21) at 7:32pm MT for your 5,000th post.

    As for the writing part:

    "The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it"
    I firmly believe that the current state of of numismatics is at a higher than ever interest level aimed at obtaining the finest possible coins for the least amount of dollar! This has been facilitated by one and only one thing! The Internet! The internet has enabled the collector to bypass the snail mail method of ordering from the mint, it has enabled the collector to buy and sell coins online through any number of auction houses. The internet has made grading standards and opinions available to literraly anybody with a computer and most importantly, the internet has taken the coin collector out of the closet and into the light with other collectors that share the same interests. It used to be that meeting casual collectors was something that only occurred at local coin shops or coin shows. Today, those meetings occur daily with new and interesting individuals through boards such as this one. A collector can jump on the internet and share what he or she has found or even learn about new things to look for. That coupled with the ease of obtaining coins from the internet has turned most casual collectors into serious collectors that have a sharp eye on what they possess, what it is worth and even what they plan on collecting in the future.

    Additionally, the Internet, in my opinion, has increased the value of our collection because the more people there are that appreciate what we have, then the more people there are that would like to obtain the same type of collection. Supply and Demand has increased the prices of classic rarities as well as added value to certain modern coins.

    The advent of the TPG's has played a certain role in the higher interest levels but I must say that PCGS's introduction of the Registry Set program has done more to inflate the value of coins than any other single factor. To have your name next to your collection on a public web page brings a certain amount of pride and personal accomplishment to the otherwise 'casual' collector. No longer does your coin sit in some dark safe deposit box waiting for its next viewing. Its picture can now be proudly displayed for literally anybody in the world to view it! I think this is really something!

    How do I foresee the State of Numismatics a year from now and on what grounds do I base this opinion?

    I see the future of numismatics to be very very bright again based upon the Internet! Why? Because as computers become more and more sophisticated and less expensive, more and more people will become aware of numismatics and coin collecting. More coins will be available, more people will figure out ways to market coins and the US Mint will take advantage of each and everyone of us by coming up with new and unique offering and methods of marketing that product to us to cut the production costs of their initial product. US Currency.

    So........wud you think?
    I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.



    The name is LEE!
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    9/25/06 3:21

    My writing entry is here!
    "Wars are really ugly! They're dirty
    and they're cold.
    I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
    Mary






    Best Franklin Website
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    dcamp78dcamp78 Posts: 1,082 ✭✭
    9/23/06 @ 13:30

    Sorry, I don't feel like I have enough experience with the market to write anything that would sound
    like I know what I'm talking about.

    I am looking forward to reading the posts though...

    Thanks for the chance...
    Big Dave
    -------------------------
    Good trades with: DaveN, Tydye, IStillLikeZARCoins, Fjord, Louie, BRdude
    Good buys from: LordMarcovan, Aethelred, Ajaan, PrivateCoinCollector, LindeDad, Peaceman, Spoon, DrJules, jjrrww
    Good sale to: Nicholasz219
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    richardshipprichardshipp Posts: 5,647 ✭✭✭
    Boom,

    First off, thank you for giving us this opportunity; even though most of us here might not deserve it. Congratulations on achieving your 5000th post. It is unfortunate that due to the time it has taken you to achieve this goal and the environment in which it was done that your skin is now likely thicker than an elephants hide.

    In response to your OP, I humbly submit the following replies:

    Prerequisite #1
    I predict that you will post your 5000th post on 09/25/06 at exactly 3:31pm. This was not some random guess, and if you’ve stayed “true to form”, it should be the correct answer.

    Prerequisite #2

    “The State Of Numismatics Now and the Factors That Have Facilitated It”
    And
    “Where Will Numismatics Be a Year From Now and Why?”

    There are several human characteristics that impact all human endeavors. We also know that an individuals’ perception of what is going on is impacted by their own experiences, personal beliefs, and influences from those they associate with. The world of “Numismatics” is no different. Therefore, the state of numismatics is truly dependent upon an individuals’ perspective.

    From my perspective I believe that “The State Of Numismatics Now” is strong. While we will see ups and downs along the way, the general trend of increasing value across the numismatic spectrum will continue. My belief will likely be challenged by those whom have recently taken a bearish perspective on the matter. I will submit to you that those with the bearish perspective have been falsely drawn to their opinions by one of the human characteristic of which I brought up in the beginning. We need to recognize that “familiarity breeds contempt”. Those whom have completely immersed themselves in numismatics fall prey to this human characteristic. They have become too familiar with both the individuals that they interact with and the coins that at one time they loved. When the love affair is over, the “value” they see in their acquisitions have diminished. Then, another human characteristic kicks in when a few outspoken individuals with a bearish outlook start preaching “doom and gloom”; this characteristic is the “flock mentality”. Many will succumb to being followers instead of leaders and follow the “flock” without making their own observations as to what is really going on. The wise and self-confident will stand to benefit when the next “freefall” starts and will be in the best position when the market recovers and continues to grow.

    There are many reasons why the state of Numismatics is strong now; and I believe that it is the same reasons why a year from now or even many years from now the field will remain strong.

    Coins are not only a tool used for monetary exchange; they are in fact artwork (maybe not the SBA’s), and history all rolled up into one thing. They spark long forgotten memories from our childhood. They allow “collectors” to fuel one other human characteristic, that being the desire to “be or have the best”. This drives the “top end” of the numismatic field. With the baby-boomers coming into a point in their life where they have more disposable income and more importantly time; the influx of people into the hobby will continue to grow. When you see how many people say “I’m just getting back into it; I used to collect as a child” you can see that I may have a point. Their days of participating in other more physical activities will gradually be replaced by more cerebral pursuits. The numismatic field provides an excellent opportunity for those entering it to learn and grow. It allows them to participate at any economic level. It satisfies the “hands on” desire that most humans have. All in all it is a great hobby. The advent of the “internet” has exponentially increased the average collectors’ opportunities to participate and is likely one of the most important contributors to the dramatic growth the hobby has seen in the last decade.

    As with any other endeavor in life there are also other human characteristics which tarnish and demean the field of numismatics. Primarily the culprit is “greed”. Whether it is counterfeiting through spark erosion, added mintmarks, removed mintmarks, repunched dates, lasering, or the recent trend of ATing, the motive usually is greed. These things hurt the hobby and in fact do drive away many potential newcomers. However, these same things serve to instill the desire to become more knowledgeable quickly to those who decide to stay in the hobby. The “greedy” end up trading short-term gains for long-term failure as potential buyers become knowledgeable about their tricks. Again, the internet is a two edge sword. It provides a “faceless” forum for which the “greedy” can market their handiwork; but it also provides a vast opportunity for potential buyers to become educated.

    I have not endeavored in my answer to display my “numismatic knowledge” as it is so limited. I have just tried to answer your OP as best I could from my perspective.

    Regards,
    Richard Shipp
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    TCoinsTCoins Posts: 566 ✭✭
    My guess 9-29-06 @ 10:00pm

    Thanks for the chance, I may come back with an essay.
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    librtyheadlibrtyhead Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭
    ***
    **********Buyers Timeline*******************
    9/20/06.....coin dealers start to see e-bay sales slack.......
    11/20/06.....prices drop for so-so coins
    12/15/06......Christmas holidays make selling coins difficult
    1/16/07........real estate & jobs take a dip
    3/25/07.......modern coins look good as more collectors go for the "lower price" yet collectable coins
    4/13/07......coin shows look like the line at the red cross to give blood-there is none!
    6/12/07.......its a buyers market as dealers are dumping coins silver takes a hike -----
    5/21/08......modern coins sell like hotcakes(classics are out of reach)collectors hoard coins for the next strong market
    8/29/08.......Dan buys an 1893-s au-50 pcgs morgan for under 3200.00
    12/12/08......great buyer market for classics as the market slips up for coins
    4/21/09........dealers that didn't bail out 2 yrs ago realize a profit.
    6/18/09........e-bay is gone replaced by traveling monkeys with a tin cup.
    ..........................you will reach 5000 on 10/01/06.................life is good for the collector!imagebad,bad for the seller.image
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    AZLARRYAZLARRY Posts: 1,189 ✭✭
    9-24-06 6:17 PM
    image
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    LeeGLeeG Posts: 12,162
    Hey Boom,
    Congrat's on 5Kimage Hope to see many more.


    << <i>"Guesstimate" the Date and Time I actually make the 5000th post. >>


    10/16 @ 6:57 AM



    << <i>“The State Of Numismatics Now and the Factors That Have Facilitated It” >>


    I think the maket is softening a little bit. This is based on recent unsold lots at auction and the comments of much more knowledgeable folks who have posted on the boards. Major collections have been to Auction in the past year and U.S. Mint products have ate up many collectors money.



    << <i>“Where Will Numismatics Be a Year From Now and Why?” >>


    I think we'll be in the same postion then as we are now. Don't have a crystal ball but with elections, war, poverty, economy in general, don't see an upswing anytime soon. People are in a "Wait and See" pattern right now with their money. I'm interested in seeing how things go at Baltimore in Nov and FUN in Jan. We won't see any "Major Rarities" or amazing collections during this time.

    That's my take and I'm sticking to itimage

    "Have Fun" collecting! Heres a Washington I picked up from Wayne Herndon for your viewing pleasureimage

    image
    image
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    LeeG, is that a proof or a MS 1957 25c? If it's MS, then it is a scarce variety.
    "Wars are really ugly! They're dirty
    and they're cold.
    I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
    Mary






    Best Franklin Website
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    9/25/06 at 10am
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    LeeGLeeG Posts: 12,162


    << <i>LeeG, is that a proof or a MS 1957 25c? If it's MS, then it is a scarce variety. >>


    Hey bushmaster8image PCGS MS67image
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    BoomBoom Posts: 10,165
    Thanks for the replies thus far.

    I sure would have thought that more "in the know" would have stepped forward to offer more insight, if nothing more. image

    image
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    Weather11amWeather11am Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭
    Sunday, September 24 at 9:00 PM EST.

    Here is what i wrote for question 2:

    I believe the coin market is a bubble that is almost ready to burst. I think the only thing that will keep this bubble going is the high price of precious metals. As long as silver stays above $10, gold around $600, and platinum around $1200 things will be fine. If the value these precious metals continue to rise the coin market will also enjoy the surge. The optimism of rising bullion prices will spread to the coin market like it already has done. However, if these metals fall back to lower levels, the coin market will suffer dramatically. Prices cannot go up forever!

    One reason the coin market has turned into a bubble ready to pop is the abuse by the US Mint. As many people have said on the boards, they are looking more and more like the Royal Canadian Mint. They seem to keep pumping out more and more products and even falsely promote the 20th Century Eagle Sets. The mint is taking lots of money out of numismatics and also getting people fed up with the hobby. For coin prices to rise, there is a need of new collectors to buy the coins. The mint seems to be abusing their power and in the long run—I have no idea how soon---it is going to hurt them and the US coin market.

    Another concern is the abuse that occurs on Ebay. Coins are over promoted, over graded, fake, altered, cleaned, false descriptions, etc. When the buyers find out they are buying crap, they are probably going to stop buying coins. This abuse on Ebay will lead to a decline in confidence and get many collectors to stop collecting coins.

    One final concern is the fact how many people buy the plastic instead of the coin. Many people are just buying the number on the slab. That truly is not coin collecting. This shows how much value people place on NGC’s and PCGS’s opinion. Just imagine how much that “perfect” business strike penny goes for?!?! All because the slab it says MS-70 on it. When people start actually buying the coin and start forming their opinion on the grade, there will be many declines in prices. Why pay $20,000 more for a coin only 1 grade higher. Eventually, collectors will begin to use common sense.

    What do I believe all this is coming to? I think bullion prices will keep coin’s values high for a while. However, abuse by the mint and Ebay, not to mention buying the plastic instead of the coin will catch up with the numismatic market. Prices will decline; it is just a matter of how much. Common sense says nothing can go up forever, not even coins. Optimistically speaking, the decline will offer a great buying opportunity. So…not all hope is lost.
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    BoomBoom Posts: 10,165
    Hey, all you vociferous people that always have something to say, how about channeling it in a positive sense. and thanx for the responses thus far. image

    image
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    BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,319 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hey Boom....you need to be posting a little bit more so you can hit 5000 when I guessed image

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

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    lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 7,994 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK...thanks for the opportunity...

    9/26/06 at 12:31 PM

    Leo
    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
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    MyqqyMyqqy Posts: 9,777
    9-26-06 3:55 pm...... image
    My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable !
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    BoomBoom Posts: 10,165
    MOC, besides being a complete and utter disgrace you are a complete idiot.

    You don't even have enough moral turpitude to be ashamed of the damage you've done to this hobby.

    If I were you I'd be ashamed to ever show my face again. Your schoolyard bully antics are so you.

    You're a frigging disgrace and I don't feel like playing today.

    Better still, why don't YOU show us all what you're made of and provide us all with some of that Numismatic insight!

    Get a life DOC and Good bye.

    Yeah, right! image
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    September 25, 5:16 pm

    The state of numismatics is that this is a golden age. Collectors in the future will look back at this time as one of wonder with so many circulated coins to collect, so many commems to choose from, so many NCLT coins for topical collectors. The coin market is ready for a huge bull run in prices. Overall prices of the 3000 coins in the PCGS index are up 25% over five years. Many coins have not participated, a few have doubled and tripled in price. This time the entire market index will triple. The old saw of old coins being worth money will become true. Common circulated Indian cents will go for $5, Morgans $50.

    The driver will be the next wave of change, with the removal of the U. S. cent and U. S. nickel from circulation. They are both already costing the mint more to make than they are worth in face value. That situation can only continue for so long before either the price of nickel, copper and zinc has to drop, or those coins will no longer be made. TIn one bold stroke there will be an entire new generation getting excited about circulating coins, and many of them will want to collect the old ones as well. If the price trends in industry metals continue for a few years, even the clad quarters and dimes will eventually become worth more than their metal content. The state quarters are nice to look at, but the profit motive is more powerful than that.

    Yes, there are problems. The coin doctors make more money every year pulling out new tricks every year. Dealers continue to be rude to their customers. The grading services continue to in their quest to be all things to all people and fall short.

    Despite the problems, the depth of knowledge, the free movement of information, the spreads between buy and sell, all point to this being a great time to be a coin collector. To the next 100 years. Cheers.
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    BoomBoom Posts: 10,165
    As written in response to the vindictive Doctor Norris' veiled threats sent via PM let everyone hereby see what I have to say about said demands/ threats:

    #1- If you aren't aware of the particulars, the premise on which the charity drive is run, I suggest you go back and read.

    I can just see going around to everyone made homeless in New Orleans' area and on the opposite end of the State (REALITY CRAIG) with the stench of rotting human flesh all around, nasty flies and mosquitoes, disease everywhere and saying, "Here ya go Buddy, Merry Christmas from a bunch of good people and oh by the way, would you please give me a receipt because in about 9 months some Doctor who claims to be a Christian is going to get caught blatantly AT'ing coins when he really has no need to other than ego or pride because he sure as hell makes a good enough living as a Nephrologist and he is going to be so filled with hatred that he will demand receipts."

    You are being a FOOL, Craig Norris. For your information, David Hall himself was written a Thank You letter by Ms. Gina Theriot, manager of the Bank that handled ONE transaction, in gratitude for his compassion and all the people at PCGS, He was also sent an email by her if memory serves me right!

    When I make my rounds to places you've never been and maybe OUGHT TO, I sure as Hell am not asking for receipts. Lucky I don't get mobbbed and a knife in my ribs!

    Then along comes all the bags and all the actual grunt work, the cooking, peeling potatoes, delivering meals and bags of gifts for those that have been scouted out as the most needy. You can call whomever you please. Perhaps if you had used your brain for purposes other than shooting gases into old rattlers with a syringe or going, as you said, to your art room to do some painting with Ammonia/ water solution and a soft Q-tip swabbed all over a freshly dipped coin's surfaces you wouldn't have put YOURSELF in this situation. You are always so vindictive. Try looking yourself in the eye next time you look in a mirror and realize what you have done to yourself and this hobby.

    Make due note of the fact that I said all of that without having to resort to using expletives.

    I have no time for such malice and am hereby telling you that as of now you are on my ignored list so write till chicken grow teeth, I don't care, BROTHER!
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    9/27/06 10:00 pm CST.
    The strangest things seem suddenly routine.
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    MFHMFH Posts: 11,720 ✭✭✭✭
    9/27 at 2:13 am

    Congrats on your 5000th post
    Mike Hayes
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Coin collecting is not a hobby, it's an obsession !

    New Barber Purchases
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    The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated

    As a recent entrant into the Hobby the lack of creditable IMO advice is as diverse as the items collected, what are considered reputable dealers strive to undercut each other cast doubt on each other all for a profit. The damage cased by these tactics will continue to drive out those of us who have found the degree of malice presented on these forums a very complex maze of information to sort through. It is professed that to make the hobby stronger new blood must be brought in to the fold, but new blood is rejected ridiculed and demeaned as seen here on a daily basis.
    The average new collector does not have or is skeptical about dropping large sums of cash for what the purest consider the only items worth collecting pre 1964 or pre 1955 or pre 1933 the opinions very like the coins.
    The constant complaints about the top TPG’s also make me wonder why they are in such control of this hobby you allow a third party to determine the quality the value and authenticity of your items when most of you profess to know better than they so why use them, my conclusion can only be for profit. The money paid for this service is to authenticate a coin if an Indian head is blue does that make it less authentic it is still an Indian head as long as it is not counterfeit why would you even desire an opinion on the toning or lack of and again this comes at a price.
    The number of reputable dealers that present themselves on these forums as experts is daunting and as diverse as the prices they charge for the same material they offer for sale.
    We have those who wish to protect us from the wannabes and those who advise us not to buy their items while the market is soft but yet do not price according to the market they feel they drive waiting for the recovery and the return of the prices they desire.
    The high level high dollar sector will continue to trade the same material among them selves as always the low level lower dollar material will continue to attract the new collectors the mint products will continue to sell be they junk or perhaps items that the average collector likes at what are prices within reach of the average collector.
    As to where the market will be will be determined by those “market makers” and their desire to reduce cost to attract new blood or sit on inventory until they realize the profit they desire regardless of the value.

    9/25 5:00pm
    Congrats on your 5000th post
    Some Days its not worth chewing through the straps
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    9/25 0420
    oh the horror image
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    MrLeeMrLee Posts: 1,847 ✭✭✭
    9/24 11PM PST

    image
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    An early Congrats! image
    5000th post on 10/02/06 at 3:21 a.m.
    Thanks for a shot.
    "Only 2 things are certain
    Death and Taxes" ~~ Ben Franklin
    https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/mint-sets/1945-mint-set/publishedset/21067
    Knutson's 45' Set 2009 Winner
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    9/25/06 @ 4:57pm

    Over and over we've heard buy scare, rare coins in as high a grade as you can and buy original problem free coins. As the boiling, overheated market cools off this "cream" rises and stays on the top and the sludge, leftover sediment sinks lower and lower til it settles on the bottom.
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    9/24/06, 11:06 pm Pacific time

    The state of numismatics in 2006 is very strong, due primarily to demographics, the internet, and the new coin programs from the US mint

    the future is slightly weaker, as the market is getting saturated with moderns.

    the outlook for genuinely rare old coins is still good.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    Congrats on 5000 giveaway. sept.27, 2006 at 1:43p.m. As you can see with posts less than 10 i am very new to collecting.
    What I have seen is my interest has changed from newer coins to older coins. I am very weary of Ebay and believe that visualizing a coin in my hand is the best way to purchase. I am looking forward to going to my first coin show and have not submitted some coins I have that I think are an exceptional grade. I am looking forward to reading from experience on this thread. thank you for the opportunity.

    << <i>Each of us is the only one who can give the other, exactly what each of us wants. >>

    image
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    messydeskmessydesk Posts: 19,764 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #5000 Monday 9/25, 3:00 PM CDT

    The State of Numismatics NOW and the factors that have facilitated it:

    The "State of Numismatics" encompasses much more than the market for U.S. coins. The assumption to the contrary is in itself an indicator of the state of numismatics. It shows that there is a lot of emphasis on record auction prices being paid for truly rare coins, as well as the "killer score," whether it be "making" a coin at a TPG or a "major rip" on eBay. Lack of consistency in third party grading, as demonstrated by the little shards of plastic that fill bourse wastebaskets, has enabled some people to make lucrative careers out of wielding a loupe and a tile nippers, and entices others to follow suit with varying degrees of success or failure. Incredible amounts of money being paid for vibrantly colored coins, while an indicator that not all are slave to the Greysheet, have lured those looking for a quick buck through the art of deception to that market, once again with varying degrees of success, but always at the expense of the "originality" of the coins that become their test subjects. Incredible amounts of money being paid for coins that will bump up a registry score up a couple hundredths of a point show that there's a lot of ego involved in competitive set building, and the upcoming sale on a PCGS MS70 cent is timed perfectly for this craze, which has come a long way since the days of "Penny Whist" (see Sheldon's "Penny Whimsy"). Not to be one to miss out on the current size of the U.S. coin market, the U.S. Mint has increased their offerings to include special anniversary sets. I won't even dignify the First Strike™ program with more than this sentence. I guess if I were limit my definition of numismatics as above, I could sum it up with two words -- feverish marketing.

    Numismatics has a broader scope, however. We must remember that it is meant to be an Enjoyable Hobby -- two words that are anathema to "feverish marketing." It implies a leisurely, relaxing study of coins, during which process one learns more about coins. This aspect of the hobby is easily drowned out by the feverish marketing part of the associated business, but it is not dead. Leaders in the hobby are more reachable by others on this forum and in others. People seeking information and explanation are able to find guidance quickly. As a result of this, people probably have more valuable collections of "numismatic friends" than was possible in years past. Specialties that play outside the confines of the Greysheet or even the PCGS numbering system are alive and well not because of bottom lines that need to be met, but because people find it enjoyable or relaxing. If I comment on my corner of the world, I enjoy pulling out my lightly cleaned, AU 1878 Morgan dollars now and then and looking at how the dies were cobbled together, even if they aren't worth Lots of Money. If I sell some at a profit, it usually goes right back into my collection, anyway.

    A year from now, the Feverish Marketing aspect of numismatics has the highest risk of crashing like a college student coming down off an all-night Mountain Dew buzz. "Monster Toners" and modern pop tops have been flying close to the sun for a few years now. The abundance of artificially toned coins, even within expensive plastic, will turn off enough people to cause this market to correct itself. The difference in value between ultra modern pop tops and coins one grade lower will start coming down, especially if you use the populations of Gold Buffalo coins as an indicator of how rare these coins aren't. Also, with the quantity of offerings coming from the mint incresing, money chasing hot-off-the-press 70s will be spread thinner. As for the Enjoyable Hobby part of numismatics, the increase in quantity as quality of easily available information will continue to make it easier for people to learn more about the hobby or specialize, and increase the value of their "numismatic friend" portfolio.
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    HeywoodHeywood Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭
    # 5000 9/26/06

    12:58 EST


    A witty saying proves nothing- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)



    An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor

    does the truth become error because nobody will see it. -Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)
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    TwoKopeikiTwoKopeiki Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #5000 Monday 9/25, 12:30P.M. EST

    Cheers.
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    9/25/06 21:45 (9:45)pm. Thanks for the chance
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    koincollectkoincollect Posts: 446 ✭✭✭
    9/25 5:35 PDT

    Trend of people buying more from the mint (which in their perception does not profit and cheat them as much as dealers). Nice PQ coins have and would keep people interested in them as always.
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