Dick Osburn had this to say in his "after show" email today...

goose3

I plucked this paragraph from his email.


As this is written I'm still in Long Beach preparing for the trip back to
Kemah. Long Beach was an interesting show, very different from other recent
shows. The retail traffic was much lighter than usual, although my sales
totals were good due to the sales of several very expensive coins. General
concensus of the dealers was that it was a very slow show. The Heritage
auction also showed some calming of the recent price rises. The prices were
in general very subued. It will take another show or two to confirm it, but
it looks to me like we're beginning to see the first signs of the slow-down
that I've been expecting for at least 12 months. If it happens I believe it
will be a good opportunity to fill some of the tough holes in your sets. I
expect the slow-down to be temporary, with price increases resuming after
the market has had a chance to digest some of the many coins that have come
out recently.

Rampage

Thanks for posting. Can't wait for prices to fall a bit so I can pick up some new goodies.

clw54

<< <i>Thanks for posting. Can't wait for prices to fall a bit so I can pick up some new goodies. >>


Yea, verily.

dizzyfoxx

My bets go towards the fact that coin prices in general will not be lowered in any way shape or form, ESPECIALLY the one's with decent eye appeal. So don't get too excited to find 'screamin' deals. The gorgeous coins and tough dates won't change. I actually don't think much will change at all, except perhaps if a collector is trying to sell, but that's no different than usual anyway. JMHO.

Steve27

I believe it's all related to the drop in gold/silver, and unless they recover there will be a bit of a pull-back in coin prices. (I think those gold Buffalos are beginning to look like white elephants.)

Bear

Every move of the coin market represents

an opportunity. If its up, sell something.If

its down buy something. If it goes sideways,

go fishing like Ken does.

Hyperion

Defintely looking forward to upgrading the 1908 no-motto saint in my dansco

kranky

I have trouble reconciling two oft-quoted maxims.

On one hand, when the market slows, you should take that opportunity to pick up those tougher coins you haven't yet acquired.

On the other, when the market slows, the good stuff stays in strong hands and won't be offered at the new lower prices.

Coinosaurus

Not totally true. People always need to sell coins. Otherwise there would be no dealer inventory. They may be more reluctant to sell if the market softens, but there is a still a healthy percentage that will be selling.

keets

Jim, i tend to believe that what happens is prices get lower but the better material becomes harder to locate. as an example, if you're looking for a 1932-D Washington Quarter in a PCGS MS64 holder you might be able to get one a bit cheaper but the coin may not be as nice or as easy to locate, if that makes sense. maybe a poor example, but you should catch my drift. now if you want to look at a couple of sayings that seem to be directly opposed, consider these two:

He who hesitates is lost.
Good things come to he who waits.

considering those has me at a standstill!!

ksteelheader

<< <i>Jim, i tend to believe that what happens is prices get lower but the better material becomes harder to locate. as an example, if you're looking for a 1932-D Washington Quarter in a PCGS MS64 holder you might be able to get one a bit cheaper but the coin may not be as nice or as easy to locate, if that makes sense. maybe a poor example, but you should catch my drift. now if you want to look at a couple of sayings that seem to be directly opposed, consider these two:

He who hesitates is lost.
Good things come to he who waits.

considering those has me at a standstill!!

-------------------------
Cheap-Shot parting words from the OF we should all remember:

Where are you going to say all your jerky macho stuff?
I'll bet most of you don't even know what a die break is! You sure have PROVEN you can't grade AT stuff! Or can't grade at all!
See you boys in the coin forum. Study up!

And you other people-You can go find reruns of Jerry Springer! >>



And you other people-You can go find reruns of Jerry Springer!

Are those the ones with the trampoline and dogs????

elwood

I was finding nicer coins a few years at lower levels, then today at these higher levels?

mercurynut

It is about time for the market to consolidate and take a breather.

jdimmick

I can tell you this coins like the 32-d washington in 64 will be cheaper than ever, they are overpriced, have been, and continue to bring less and less at auctions. Many will be crappy or overgraded, but there will still he nice ones being discounted considerably.

originalisbest

The 32-D and S have had quite a runup in all grades of circ due to one dealer sucking up the supply... as far as I know he's still buyin' 'em strong. I would think, that can't last forever?

clw54

<< <i>The 32-D and S have had quite a runup in all grades of circ due to one dealer sucking up the supply... as far as I know he's still buyin' 'em strong. I would think, that can't last forever? >>


One guy can hoard enough of those to raise prices?

shirohniichan

(I think those gold Buffalos are beginning to look like white elephants.)

BLASHPEMY!

The Gold Buffalos are the pinnacle of US numismatics (until the next thing comes along).

BAJJERFAN

<<"I expect the slow-down to be temporary, with price increases resuming after
the market has had a chance to digest some of the many coins that have come
out recently.">>

That doesn't square with what others like Laura are saying about little to nothing in the way of new or fresh material being available.

<<"He who hesitates is lost.
Good things come to he who waits.">>

Yeah, thats sorta like

Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
and
Out of sight, out of mind.

Coinosaurus

Different markets. There was comparatively little rare date seated material on the market c. 2002-2003. Beginning with the Jim Gray sale in 2004, tons of stuff is coming out of the woodwork. That is what Dick is talking about.

Laura is talking about super high grade fresh type coins that she can flip to retail clients. There is little intersection here.