Hypothetical - 1895 Morgan bag found - value?

RichieURich

A group of discussed this hypothetical at ANA, so I decided to open the discussion to the Forum.

A bag of 1895 Morgan dollar business strikes is found, with no evidence that any of the other 11,000 business strikes still exist. All of the coins are MS-63. What is the "market clearing" value of each coin, such that all coins will be sold, but there will be no additional purchasers still wanting to buy a coin?


Edit - - everyone knows all of this information. And the question is how much is each coin worth?

SilverEagles92

Well, considering that they're very key coins, and that very very few exist, if any, probably many thousands per coin. Of course, there'd be the skeptical that a bag was just randomly found, then still others that would be on the hunt for more bags. If only one bag was found, depending on the grade, condition, etc, maybe up to $1,000,000 + for the whole bag.

ziggy29

I'd guess the coins would be worth five figures each. Though if all were sold together, I'd expect the price per coin to drop a bit as someone with very deep pockets would have to slowly release them into the market to avoid crashing the price.

Bryan1315

if you had a MS 1895 Morgan you could make your own price for them and someone would definately pay it. 100,000.00 probably wouldnt get you a picture of a bag of MS-63 1895 Morgans

Russ

<< <i>What is the "market clearing" value of each coin >>



Less than it would be if only one example were found.

Russ, NCNE

ziggy29

<< <i>Less than it would be if only one example were found. >>

Thank you, Captain Obvious!

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>

<< <i>Less than it would be if only one example were found. >>

Thank you, Captain Obvious! >>



I think Russ meant that 1 single MS coin, if found, would be worth more than an entire bag of MS63 coins combined.

And if I'm right, it means that Rich should chuck all but one of the coins into a lake or river near his home.

JRocco

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Less than it would be if only one example were found. >>

Thank you, Captain Obvious! >>



I think Russ meant that 1 single MS coin, if found, would be worth more than an entire bag of MS63 coins combined.

And if I'm right, it means that Rich should chuck all but one of the coins into a lake or river near his home. >>



Or just "find" another one every couple years...

gsaguy

Did Manofcoins discover the bag?

Outhaul

Uhh...release them one at a time over a period of years...

coinguy1

This is a very tough one to figure. On one hand, 1000 MS63's is a lot of examples of a previously unknown business strike issue. And, if one bag is located it would make people think others might also turn up. On the other hand there are huge numbers of Morgan Dollar collectors who would want/need one for their sets.

In trying to come up with a number, do you try at all to relate it to current populations and prices of the 1895 in Proof?

My gut tells me $50,000 each, though I expect some very different answers from others.

RichieURich

My uneducated guess was $10,000 each. I thought it would be high because there are a lot of Morgan collectors, and a lot who would want the business strike. I figured anyone who could afford the proof 1895 Morgan would basically already have one, so the price would have to be lower than the current > $30K. And I figured it would take a decent discount to sell a 1,000 coin bag. I'm not saying my answer is right, this was just my thought process. And there's no need to check the rivers in this area; if I found such a bag, you'd hear me!

ziggy29

<< <i>I figured anyone who could afford the proof 1895 Morgan would basically already have one, so the price would have to be lower than the current > $30K. >>

Except that a lot of collectors, even wealthy ones, skip over the 1895 because it's a "proof only" and rationalize it as a "business strike collection."

Find business strikes, and suddenly everyone collecting a business strike set suddenly *needs* a '95-P. And a lot of wealthy Morgan collectors who can rationalize not chasing it now would be out of excuses.

amercoin

Remember when 3 bags of 1903-O morgans were found. The coin dropped in value.

librtyhead

Depends on how they were marketed...............35.000-80.000 ...........hypothetically!

coinguy1

<< <i>

<< <i>I figured anyone who could afford the proof 1895 Morgan would basically already have one, so the price would have to be lower than the current > $30K. >>

Except that a lot of collectors, even wealthy ones, skip over the 1895 because it's a "proof only" and rationalize it as a "business strike collection."

Find business strikes, and suddenly everyone collecting a business strike set suddenly *needs* a '95-P. And a lot of wealthy Morgan collectors who can rationalize not chasing it now would be out of excuses. >>

Ziggy, I agree, but that was the easy part - what about a price per coin guess?

Leiana

I think selling them one at a time would be the most lucrative, but it would also conceal the "true" population from collectors. I know I would not be happy if I bought a "unique" coin only to later learn of the existance of 999 others.

-Amanda

ziggy29

<< <i>Ziggy, I agree, but that was the easy part - what about a price per coin guess? >>

Well, early on I did say "five figures," but that was a pretty easy guess and a wide range.

I really don't know but I'd guess in the $30-60K range.

ziggy29

<< <i>I think selling them one at a time would be the most lucrative, but it would also conceal the "true" population from collectors. I know I would not be happy if I bought a "unique" coin only to later learn of the existance of 999 others. >>

Now put yourself in the position of the guy who paid $7 million for "the" 1933 Saint...

Leiana

<< <i>

<< <i>I think selling them one at a time would be the most lucrative, but it would also conceal the "true" population from collectors. I know I would not be happy if I bought a "unique" coin only to later learn of the existance of 999 others. >>

Now put yourself in the position of the guy who paid $7 million for "the" 1933 Saint... >>



Exactly!

And the other ones are property of the US Mint and are coins, too, now. Or so I hear.

-Amanda

librtyhead

call them the "ritchie-rich" collection and have them slabbed as such,1000 coins for 100,000 collectors would go fast!

jdimmick

I dont think the price would be that High. It would be hard to compare it to the other dates of equal survivability, becuase the grade range of those very, vs the whole group of 95 in ms-63. I think it would be more in the line of about 25-30K max

messydesk

You don't specify whether or not the bag is dated Jan. 1895 and thus is eligible for First Strike™ designation. Nevertheless, I'll change your hypothetical and assume they're not all the same grade.

$30K for a run o' the mill Unc., $50K for a 63, $120K for a 65, $500K for the Best One of the thousand. There are probably enough well-heeled Morgan dollar collectors out there that these would vanish in a heartbeat.

coinguy1

<< <i>You don't specify whether or not the bag is dated Jan. 1895 and thus is eligible for First Strike™ designation. Nevertheless, I'll change your hypothetical and assume they're not all the same grade.

$30K for a run o' the mill Unc., $50K for a 63, $120K for a 65, $500K for the Best One of the thousand. There are probably enough well-heeled Morgan dollar collectors out there that these would vanish in a heartbeat. >>

" All of the coins are MS-63" according to the original post.

Aegis3

<< <i>

<< <i>You don't specify whether or not the bag is dated Jan. 1895 and thus is eligible for First Strike™ designation. Nevertheless, I'll change your hypothetical and assume they're not all the same grade.

$30K for a run o' the mill Unc., $50K for a 63, $120K for a 65, $500K for the Best One of the thousand. There are probably enough well-heeled Morgan dollar collectors out there that these would vanish in a heartbeat. >>

" All of the coins are MS-63" according to the original post. >>



Yeah, and how long will it be until we see 64s and 65s, and for the pops to exceed the 12,000 mintage?

majorbigtime

What if you just had the bag and no coins?

What's that worth????

BAJJERFAN

Well not all the coins would be exactly alike so some 63's would be nicer than others. Also there mite be toners of various kinds both monster and fugly. I'd start an average one at $25K and see if there are any takers. The other thing is that your hypothetical doesn't much resemble how things would play out in the "life experience" situation.

coindeuce

No value at all. The Mint would claim that no documentation exists to prove that they were ever officially released for circulation, and the Secret Service would aggressively pursue seizure of any and all examples to the extremes of their power, claiming that they are property of the government and thus had been stolen from the Mint. Sound familiar?

Coxe

If a single one 1895 business strike was found, after the debating as to whether it was a business strike, it would easily break the all-time coin price record. A bag of 1,000 at MS63 for each, all identical in quality? Well, there were 880 proofs of that year with nearly full survivorship but at various grades, many impaired. The mint state would then eclipse the proof in numbers by 25% or so. Neither issue ever entered commerce.

As a good baseline, consider the 1903-O Morgan. Prior to the Treasury release of hundreds of thousands of them, they were impossible to locate at nearly any proposed bid. Now there are over 10,000 certified between PCGS and NGC alone. That seems to be enough to satisfy the collector population. 1,000 1895 on the other hand is not. Though the numbers would be higher and the grade (MS63) close to the mean proof grade, I think the proofs would decline in price and the business strikes would sell initially much higher, the first ones easily fetching $100K. In time, like the 1903-O, they would relax to the $35K-$50K neighborhood, driven primarily by the fact that 1,000 isn't enough to satisfy the overall demand but is enough to be a commodity rather than a true rarity.

RWB

A somewhat more realistic scenario is this:

The four Assay Commission 1895 circulation strike Morgans are located in the estate of one of the commission members. The family wants to sell the coins. How do they maximize the return to the Estate and how much will each of the MS-65 specimens sell for?

BigE2

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Less than it would be if only one example were found. >>

Thank you, Captain Obvious! >>



I think Russ meant that 1 single MS coin, if found, would be worth more than an entire bag of MS63 coins combined.

And if I'm right, it means that Rich should chuck all but one of the coins into a lake or river near his home. >>




I wouldn't think so. Imagine if those 10 1933 Saint's were released. Would the value be placed at $750,000 each coin? Not likely! And WAY more folks collect Morgans than $20 gold.

BigE2

<< <i>Remember when 3 bags of 1903-O morgans were found. The coin dropped in value. >>




Wasn't it hundreds of thousands of these coins were found at the mint? A few thousand wouldn't make that much of an impact.

BigE2

<< <i>If a single one 1895 business strike was found, after the debating as to whether it was a business strike, it would easily break the all-time coin price record. A bag of 1,000 at MS63 for each, all identical in quality? Well, there were 880 proofs of that year with nearly full survivorship but at various grades, many impaired. The mint state would then eclipse the proof in numbers by 25% or so. Neither issue ever entered commerce.

As a good baseline, consider the 1903-O Morgan. Prior to the Treasury release of hundreds of thousands of them, they were impossible to locate at nearly any proposed bid. Now there are over 10,000 certified between PCGS and NGC alone. That seems to be enough to satisfy the collector population. 1,000 1895 on the other hand is not. Though the numbers would be higher and the grade (MS63) close to the mean proof grade, I think the proofs would decline in price and the business strikes would sell initially much higher, the first ones easily fetching $100K. In time, like the 1903-O, they would relax to the $35K-$50K neighborhood, driven primarily by the fact that 1,000 isn't enough to satisfy the overall demand but is enough to be a commodity rather than a true rarity. >>

Coinosaurus

<< <i>A somewhat more realistic scenario is this:

The four Assay Commission 1895 circulation strike Morgans are located in the estate of one of the commission members. The family wants to sell the coins. How do they maximize the return to the Estate and how much will each of the MS-65 specimens sell for? >>



I'd go the full disclosure route, and sell them all at once in one grand auction sale consisting of only those coins. Stack's/ANR, of course

Imagine if the 1933 $20 had been two coins instead of one. Would the first sell for more, or the second? It would be one giant head game between all the players. And, it would be very hard to collude because there are too many well heeled Morgan collectors.

BrianKuszmar

Since marketing is part of the coin business I believe it would be safe to say, it depends on who markets them and how.

I think a similiar precedent was set with 1857-S $20 Liberty Gold Coins being found on the SS Central America.

Properly marketed and released any product value can be maintained for a short period, it takes an active secondary market to maintain it beyond that.


Regards to all
Brian Kuszmar
Second Generation Coin Dealer

BAJJERFAN

What if the Mint was to go back and reissue the 1895 as a business strike to fill THAT HOLE in the series. What do you think about that? Would you buy one?

tychojoe

morgannut2

To answer the question, you can't use Business strike data on population verses demand

since there is not a large circulated/damaged underpopulation of coins.

Instead the simplest comparison is to use proofs:

Proof 63's can go from $750 for seated dimes up to around $40,000+ for 1895 Morgans.

So I'd just double the number of the population of 1895 Proofs and divide $40K by 2.

Maybe add in $5 grand because there's many more business strike series collectors (>400)

But not much more because so few of them have more than 20K for 1 coin.

Btw, one can't say there'd be a flood on the market therefore driving prices downward----

BAJJERFAN

Assuming that you would want to get them all into PCGS plastic it would depend on how fast that YOU would want to let them out. I would pre-sell them starting at say $50K with only 25 available and see how many takers I got. I mite also limit the number available so that it was identical to the number of known and accounted for 1893-s coins in ms60 or higher.

DennisH

I've played this "what if" in my head for many years, and the conclusion I've come to is that because there are so many Morgan collectors, 1000 coins would not meet all demand that would exist even for a whole bag of business strike 1895s -- which isn't to say that everyone who wanted one would be able to afford one. Not by a long shot.

I think prices for the coins would start out high, say around $40-50K, but then gradually settle as the market came to understand that there was a ready and available supply (1000 coins is still a pretty big pile!), and that $50,000 isn't within the means of a whole lot of folks. Within a couple of years I'd expect prices to have dropped to about half the initial level.

Now since we're playing this "what if" game, what would the price impact of a bag of business strike 1895 Morgans be on the price of 1895 proofs? (My expectation: they'd instantly go in the tank, dropping by around 75%.)

ziggy29

<< <i>Now since we're playing this "what if" game, what would the price impact of a bag of business strike 1895 Morgans be on the price of 1895 proofs? (My expectation: they'd instantly go in the tank, dropping by around 75%.) >>

I think there is little doubt about it -- the value of the proofs would suffer greatly. I don't know about a percentage, but much of the demand for the proof issue would dry up.