The Coming Bear Market in Numismatics
thecointrader
Posts: 480 ✭✭
Given the following..............
* "Fourth-Rate" grading services....
* "Do-It-Yourself" Slabs....
* Gradeflation at the major TPGs....
* Tom Noe and the Ohio scandal.....
* An infinite number and type of offerings from the US Mint....
* A flood of counterfeit and fantasy issues from China and elsewhere....
* High price differentials for one-point grade upgrades....
* The inability of the average collector to tell the difference between AT and NT....
* The inability of the novice collector to tell the difference between "natural" and "lightly cleaned" coins....
* Infighting at the ANA....
* Overpriced and misleading offerings snagging newbies on Cable TV and print media....
* Ebay's failure to control misleading and deceptive advertising on it's "venue"....
How long will it be before the Coin Market drops and values plunge 20-40% across-the-board?
Will the ability of the "new media" (internet) to out the fraudsters and thieves forestall such an event in the next decade?
What can we, as collectors and dealers, do to prevent the Numismatic Bear from rearing it's ugly head?
What should organizations like the ANA and ANS, PNG, and eBay do?
Should we really care, because Bear Markets are buying opportunities for the better-informed?
thecointrader
What about Congress and the State Legislatures?
"Giving away an MS-65 $20 St. Gaudens to everyone logged in when I make my 10,000th post..."
0
Comments
The TPG's losing their credibility (top tier ones, not the fly-by-nighters)
and/or
A collapse of the precious metals market
Greg
Jerry
<< <i>How long will it be before the Coin Market drops and values plunge 20-40% across-the-board? >>
Not soon enough in my opinion...so I can start buying in earnest.
Tyler
<< <i>How long will it be before the Coin Market drops and values plunge 20-40% across-the-board? >>
Hopefully soon so I can progress my collection farther with the same budget.
few will do it. The next bear market is probably a couple years off
still.
I am looking forward to scooping up pre-1808 type coins at 1995 values!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Many investors and market analysts believe that higher levels of bearish sentiment is actually a bullish contrarian leading indicator.
WS
When I have to spend my only day off, at a coin show,
Paying 50% over Gray for key coin's to fill customer want list's,
thing's should slow back a bit...
Oddly enough, when I pass on a coin because it's priced too high,
the guy behind me step's up and buy's it.... Good Golly Miss Molly....
oh, and one other thing... Would'nt ya think a VF Standing quarter would have a visible date ??.....
LM-ANA3242-CSNS308-MSNS226-ICTA
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
* "Fourth-Rate" grading services....
* "Do-It-Yourself" Slabs....
* Gradeflation at the major TPGs....
* Tom Noe and the Ohio scandal.....
* An infinite number and type of offerings from the US Mint....
* A flood of counterfeit and fantasy issues from China and elsewhere....
* High price differentials for one-point grade upgrades....
* The inability of the average collector to tell the difference between AT and NT....
* The inability of the novice collector to tell the difference between "natural" and "lightly cleaned" coins....
* Infighting at the ANA....
* Overpriced and misleading offerings snagging newbies on Cable TV and print media....
* Ebay's failure to control misleading and deceptive advertising on it's "venue".... >>>
In my opinion, none of those are legit fundamental reasons for the coin market to enter a bear phase or plunge 20-40% across the board.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Article #1
Article #2
<< <i>Don't try to stop it, I'm counting on the next one to make the coins I like affordable! >>
My thoughts exactly! The last couple of years I have gotten priced out of a lot of coains I was saving for because of speculation.
I have been putting money aside to make a lot of purchases in the next bear market.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Wouldn't a bear market in coins coincide with a bear market in precious metals? Frankly, I don't see that happening anytime soon. >>
Don't be so sure. Precious metals are international, US coins are very US centric. When the dollar gets shunned by the world because there are just too many around and the average US coin dealer starts selling huge inventories to make newly adjusted mortgage payments don't expect the Asians, Russians and Arabs to rush in buying up MS 67 whatever at $10,000 a coin.
Real estate is crashing, payments are going up and the only buyers of US coins, the US collector, is in debt over their ears.
jim
<< <i>Cool, another Numismatic Sky is Falling™ thread. >>
If you look at the Coin market since the 1950's it is like a roller coaster. Coins are VERY cyclical. In contrast to the "Sky is Falling" I think it should be viewed as a great opportunity to take advantage of some very good pricing in the next few years to build a collection.
Unless you believe "this time it will be different"
I have nothing to add, but im enjoying the read
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Nah, I am look forward to the bear market. Then, we can have threads that predict the market is improving, and I can post, "Cool, another Numismatic Pie-in-the-Sky™ thread."
<< <i>Unless you believe "this time it will be different" >>
It's always different.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
what exactly happended here?"
* Tom Noe and the Ohio scandal.....
What would I do with the proceeds? I think I would buy a luxury Japanese car, and move up into a nicer neighborhood. I am retired on pension so I can move anywhere I like, IF I can afford it.
I hope we have a MAJOR correction in the coin market, and the sooner the better.
I have not heard or read how this was resolved. I read here that there was an auction that excluded many... which does not sound like a decent way to sell coins.
While there may have been issues with this whole incident, perhaps the biggest problem is how it has been handled from the time there were suspected issues...
If I lived in Ohio, I would have followed this and I would not be happy with anyone... especially those that feel the need to tell me they know whats best, but no nothing about what they speak when it comes to rare coins.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
jim
If you look back at the 1979-1980 period, you will see double digit interest rates as the price of gold and coins soared. Funny that you can read both viewpoints in the news on any day (coins/gold will go down if interest rates go up or they go down!!!). You can't win.
And obviously there is only one right answer: coins will go up in price as interest rates rise and rise. Eventually they will get too high and things will correct.
roadrunner
<< <i>There are several gloomer/doomer posters on here, and I have to admit that I have seen some honest selectivty set in with signs of slowing in segments. Others with still room fro growth, But reading several of the comments on this forum, I believe before its all said and done, several members on here will be caught off -guard when it occurs, and wont realize it till they need/want to sell?
jim >>
It's usually have-to-sell when the bear comes for everyone. Coins are a luxury item and will be sold for food/rent/clothing/medical when the big bear comes calling. Most people will not have any choice, they will have to sell. Many former collectors will want to buy, but they won't have the money, and there will be many more compelling investments going begging.
The most common mistake is selling too soon on the way up and buying too soon on the way down. In the case of a big bear market, the bear crushes everyone when he breaks thru what used to look like a safe door. Calling "top" is almost as dangerous a game as calling "bottom." Yes, someone does it at each turn, but there are a hundred that tried to make the call before it comes.
<< <i>
<< <i>There are several gloomer/doomer posters on here, and I have to admit that I have seen some honest selectivty set in with signs of slowing in segments. Others with still room fro growth, But reading several of the comments on this forum, I believe before its all said and done, several members on here will be caught off -guard when it occurs, and wont realize it till they need/want to sell?
jim >>
It's usually have-to-sell when the bear comes for everyone. Coins are a luxury item and will be sold for food/rent/clothing/medical when the big bear comes calling. Most people will not have any choice, they will have to sell. Many former collectors will want to buy, but they won't have the money, and there will be many more compelling investments going begging.
The most common mistake is selling too soon on the way up and buying too soon on the way down. In the case of a big bear market, the bear crushes everyone when he breaks thru what used to look like a safe door. Calling "top" is almost as dangerous a game as calling "bottom." Yes, someone does it at each turn, but there are a hundred that tried to make the call before it comes. >>
If people have bought coins without planning for food/rent/clothing/and medical in tough times then those people are the exception and not the rule IMO. You, in another thread, boasted that most people are collectors and not investors and to run waway from the 'I' word. I believe whether a collector or investor, most people will NOT have to sell there coins in a bear market because they have other things they can sell or an income from their jobs. Most people who can afford to collect coins as a luxury, by definition, will NOT have to sell. If they do it is their choice I believe or it will be the collector or investor or dealer who have not planned/allocated properly that part of their discretionary income that buys coins for whatever reason.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Then, in my opinion it will be a mild transitional bear, not the big bad grizzly. The big bear comes when people have to sell, whether they like it or not. There can be other reasons for a big bear, but often times a terrible economy is a factor. Times change. Every one has savings, and collectors have more than most, but few people of working age can go for long periods unemployed or underemployed.
Another scenario is a bubble type of market top where speculation fuels a meteoric rise and an even more spectacular crash and burn. This can occur without a general economic downturn, usually with a huge percentage price run up before the violins play. Prices have gone up, but the gains have been modest (with a few isolated exceptions), so this scenario is not in play at this time.
Well, not every one, 20% or more of Americans have zero, but virtually all collectors do.
As for what will cause the next bear market - whenever it may occur (perhaps it has already begun, perhaps it is decades away), I still believe it will be ralated to a confidence crisis in TPG's. Take away the reliability of TPG grading, much of the market in coins would evaporate, and I would then see a bear market. I don't necessarily see it coming soon, but that is what could take most of us by surprise.
Greg
After all the AT "debates", my guess is that collectors will have no one to trust if they believe the TPGs can't protect them from doctored or fake coins. Because at the end of the day the TPGs should have their interests aligned with the buyer's interests.
Forget about precious metal prices or the next hot series as drivers of coin prices, when someone pays 5k for a coin and sells it for 500 (b/c its been tampered with), the end is here.
I can name at least one tainted registry set and 2 questionable sellers already. And this came to light in just the past week.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
If your a coin addict, a bull market is like the goverment arresting all of your drug suppliers.
Tyler