Some questions on important modern baseball cards/card sets

blacksoxfan

just fyi, this is a question with business motives behind it - so please bare that in mind.

What do you guys and gals think are the most popular sets from 1995-today and what are the most valuable? I don't collect anything that modern so i have noooo idea. In otherwords, what are the most important sets to the hobby during that time. Short of that, what are the most important singles? the gordon rookie and pujols would probably be up there if i had to guess, but beyond that i have no idea.

mikeschmidt

I don't know if there is any one important set or subset.

I think there are some that, if completed, would be extraordinary undertakings. Like 2001 SP Legendary Cuts. But that is a limited-edition insert subset, with 306 examples, with some of the SPs having only one or two examples ever produced. So it's not really a set that can be completed [with a nod to MOSH for almost completing it], as one complete set thereby negates the possibility of anyone else ever completing it.

The Upper Deck 500 HR Club autographed bat insert collection is pretty popular.

But since most of the "valuable" cards in the post-1995 world exist precisely because of their limited nature - so it is primarily singles that stick out. Very few people will bother to put together sets of the very limited edition parallels, just because it is not feasible to do so [and since similar sets are issued all the time, perhaps long-term value is another question]

~ms

EAsports

blacksoxfan,

(By the way, I wrote high school and college research papers on the 1919 White Sox, so.... howdy....)

The modern market, I feel, is a singles-driven market.

That popular price guide that everyone reads, has a list of the hot 100 cards in the current issue, and thier website has a list of all 640-something cards that have made thier "hot list" in the past 10 years. That should give you a decent idea of what some of the key cards are.

That said, there are some aesthetically pleasing sets out there, such as the recently released Allen & Ginter, some of the Fleer Greats of the Games sets, and Topps Archives. I also enjoy Upper Deck's retro themed sets, like Past Time Pennants and Yankees Classics.

My personal opinion is that Bowman sets from 1997 on will also "hold value", because almost every design (sans 2000) incorporates that black border, that kills condition. I'd love to see and 1997 or 2001 Bowman set in PSA 9 or better.

My $.02...

bishop

How about that 1995 Topps Cyberstat Season In Review Set.

AkbarClone

I'm sure that many on this board would say the "Topps Heritage" releases (base and insert sets from 2001-2006) are very popular with collectors.

joestalin

Popular:

01 Archives
01 Heritage
02 BDP
06 Allen & Ginter

Valuable:

99 UD 500 Home Run set
00 Greats of the Game
01 Bowman Chrome
01 Heritage Autos
01 Archives Autos
02 BDP


notice a trend here on the autos??? I hope you do

Kevin

Writer11

How about '96 Leaf Signature Series? I think that autographed series was kind of a trailblazer and all the major stars seem to hold their value very well.

blacksoxfan

You guys are great! Thanks for the info. This is very interesting, we too were thinking that the market today is driven by players more than anything else. That being said .... when people are looking for pricing information ... they are so used to just looking at an entire set ..... this is great information people!

I know there have been a TON of 2006 allen & ginter listings on ebay so that's good to hear from you guys.

EASports are you a member of the yahoo group? If you email me i'll give you all the info. It's really interesting.

joestalin - are those topps sets (i know heritage is ... but what about the other ones?)

Thanks again everybody.

Jmnesq

In this decade, 2002 Bowman CHrome Draft PIcks was the most influential set. It was an all rookie and 2nd year set, in wax form, with tremendous investment potential.

XanaduNow

I don't think there's any clear-cut answer to your question. Since you're talking about investing (or turning a profit) than you're essentially asking yourself the same question everyone else is.

There's a difference between items that will hold their value over time and items that have the potential to grow in value exponentially. Many of the items mentioned in this thread will probably maintain there value. These are items that open the market with a high opening worth due to the quality of the card(s), the rarity (be it true or perceived), player selection, industry innovations and the overall eye appeal. Because these items open with such a high value it's many times difficult for them to spike much further but they'll always have their collectors and seem to hold strong over time.

The other items are the eternal backbone of the industry/hobby: getting a rookie card and watching the player grow in talent, accomplishment and popularity. With that comes a great deal of pride; the belief that you knew something before others and capitalized. We've seen the trend grow to include autographed/game-used/low serial-numbered cards which have caused quite a bit of attraction from the hobby. Like any other trend though, there is or will be a backlash. I feel the market is getting saturated with more and more parralels of these cards. Their worth is perceived high because in the past these cards for future superstars quickly saw four-digit asking prices. But supply will overtake demand and I think we're finally seeing that with the new Bowman Chrome issue.

I did a quick search for my boy Jon Lester on FeeBay the other day and was shocked to see the amount of Bowman Chrome that has recently hit the market. There were autographed cards. There were refractor autographed cards. There were x-fractor autographed cards. Red refractors, blue refractors, orange refractors. Each subset serial-numbered to a different amount with many of them showing little disparity between the next (#'d to 225, 150, etc.) Since it's simply no longer feasible that anyone out there would be trying to collect them all and the line between which ones will become the clear-cut favorite in the hobby is virtually nonexistent I think we're going to start seeing collectors shy away from these issues more than in the past. Much like what happened in the late-nineties with so many companies producing so many different sets and saturating the market with product we're now starting to see the same thing happen with individual player cards. It simply can't hold at this pace.

So to answer your question, I guess it depends on what type of investment you're trying to make? The steady guy who will see small incremental growths over time or the longshot who could turn a profit percentage in the thousands?

Steady and consistent:

1.) Factory Sets. Nothing holds their respective value in the modern age more than a Topps Factory Set. I'm not even talking about the issues with popular rookie cards or anything. Even the "dead years" like 1996-2000 will continue to sell at or very close to their Hi book. Many of them immediately enter personal collections upon release and don't resurface in the secondary market. Some of these sets even continue to climb in value (like the '97 and '98 hobby sets).

2.) Heritage. See other posts

3.) Greats of the Game

4.) SP Legendary Cuts

All of these have a certain timeless quality to them and are popular with set builders. The demand will never set any records but will always be there.

If you're looking to roll the dice I have a few suggestions.

1.) Pick a guy. I'm serious. Find some young player who you feel will grow in talent and ability. Do the research like you were going to invest in a corporation's stock. When you pick one (and I highly suggest not making it from your home team since rose-colored glasses don't make for great sight) sit down and go through their existing selection of cards and find the one you feel has the best chance for short term growth. Usually you'll want it to be a rookie card that has been autographed and probably one that has a low-serial numbered population. Also try to find one that you feel is currently undervalued. Maybe there's an issue that is similar to a more popular one that doesn't have the current asking price of the more expensive one.

I'm sure everyone on this board could throw names out in regard to who they feel will increase in value but if you don't do it yourself you lose the one shot you had at making this not only a money-earning venture but also fun. That's why I'd rather just give you some loose ideas and send you on your way. Plus, I wouldn't want to mislead you into thinking I know what I'm talking about.

2.) Traded/Update Sets. Call it a hunch. Call it blind superstition. Call it gas. But I've got a feeling that in the near future we'll see a particular traded/update set set the hobby on fire. It tends to happen about every 5 years. People stop caring so much about those sets, perceived demand goes down and eventually someone will issue a set with a much lower print run because "last year's" set didn't do well. If we're lucky there will be an important rookie card in the set and we've got the "Perfect Storm" of the card collecting hobby. Then again, it might never happen again.

3.) Minor League Autograph cards. I find it absolutely amazing that these continue to slide under the radar of the average collector. Maybe it's because they've got their own little section in the back of the price guide that everyone just skips over on their way to the graded card price guide but no one is paying any attention to these cards and they can be had for a song. They're officially licensed, low-serial numbered, some are even pretty sharp to look at. And they usually feature players with their first officially licensed, serial-numbered cards before the big boys sink their teeth into them a year or two down the road. Anytime you see a MLB Bowman Chrome autographed rookie card that's serial-numbered to 50 sell for $1,000+ and you can pick up an autopgraphed serial-numbered to 50 minor league card of the same player issued the same year or even earlier using a "Buy It Now" for $39.95 there's something there that isn't going to hold. JUST did, I feel, a pretty good job with their issues from the late-nineties up until present. The quality of the card is much better and nothing like the TCM or other brands we saw in the eighties. I think there's real value with these products and no one else is on board right now. But, just like all these other longshot suggestions nothing could come of it. People will continue to pass these cards by and demand will never come into fruition. Who knows?

4.) 2004 & 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft. With the changes the MLBPA made to their agreement with major card producing companies we're going to start seeing much less of these popular rookie cards of the 18 year-old high school prospects. Many of these kids are still 3-4 years away from even smelling the big leagues which means that the cards can be had for nothing. It's high risk/high reward. I will say this though, don't buy graded issues of these cards. You're paying a premium for a level of quality that is consistent across the board with these newer cards. What I mean by this is that many of these modern issue cards will almost always grade MINT 9 or higher. Just check the pop reports. Nine is the most consistent grade and it doesn't appear too hard to get a 10 back. Is this because PSA hates modern cards and they want them out the door as fast as possible? No, of course not. It just means that the quality of production isn't what we used to break when we were kids. These cards consistently come out of the pack with superb centering, perfect surface and sharp corners. It's much better to buy raw issues of these cards and send them in to be graded yourself. You'll save a boat load of money that way.

I just realized that this post will probably crash the boards and everyone will hunt me down like I'm Frankenstein. Sorry for the length (boy, if I had a nickel every time I said THAT j/k). I got off and couldn't stop typing. I think I'm going to go buy a minor league auto.

XanaduNow Inc. in no way endorses anything said in this post and none of the incoherent rambling mentioned above should be taken seriously. God man, above all, don't base any financial decisions on what this idiot just spewed forth. Thank you, XanaduNow Inc. All rights reserved.

blacksoxfan

holy shnikees :-) that's a heck of an answer, i'll definitely read it. I'm not investing in anything modern though :-) I can't wait to read this.

fiveniner

My only intrests on the new stuff is the Topps Heritage and Topps Archive cards PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

baseballfanatic

I might start dumping a lot of my Archives since I was lucky enough to pick most of them up when there was a "lull" in them. I dont think they can climb much higher than they are now, esp. the SP's.....

blacksoxfan

XanaduNow -
That's a very well constructed post. I can't say that it helps answer my initial question, but it's a small jump from evaluating to speculating. Perhaps i should elaborate on the words "Popular" and "Valuable". My question was initially targeted to find out which sets transact the most in the public mind and which sets (as a whole) seem to bring the most money. The same question can and is applied to players. I am not an investor in baseball cards (maybe only in loose terms i am); but if i were to become one i would probably spend more time buying things outside my collecting interest in the sector of the hobby i find myself in. Again, interesting points and if anyone has anything to add, I'm all ears.

XanaduNow

Sorry 'bout that. Guess I misunderstood your question. When I saw that you mentioned business motives I thought you were looking to invest.

Popular? Yeah, the Pujols RCs and the Gordon rookie are up there. The emergence of chrome, specifically Bowman Chrome, was pretty important. The autograph craze (I believe someone already mentioned the Donruss Significant Signatures of the late-nineties). The '97 UD Griffey/Mantle autograph was pretty important and still maintains its popularity to this day.

As far as valuable goes, do you mean currently or long-term? Currently, you can just pick up any price guide or just do a quick search on FeeBay to see what's selling well.

blacksoxfan

no appologies necessary, i certainly think that your post makes some excellent points. As far as value, think of it this way.. if you wanted past sales history on particular cards/sets ... what sets/singles would you want information on most (1990-current of course)?

joestalin

There is nothing hotter right now than than the 2001 archives set. If you are at all thinking of selling then this is the time. I really
feel that other issues from topps like heritage real ones, fan favs, and archives reserve will follow suit. The sticker auto is going to
be the norm now, collectors don't want that..just look at bow chrome and A&G...no stickers and they are hits...finest and bowman
had stickers and sucked...it all makes sense

JS

blacksoxfan

Again, i'm not interested in buying or selling, only in information :-) I'm sorry i wasn't more clear about that in my initial post.

joestalin

When I think of business motives, I think of dollars and cents!

Good Luck
Kevin

XanaduNow

Yeah, I've got to agree with Kevin. At this point I'm really confused as to exactly what you're after. I'd like to help but I need to know what you're looking for.

Arthur

blacksoxfan

All i'm asking is what people feel are the most popular modern sets and which ones trade for the most money. Nothing more and nothing less :-)

XanaduNow

Wouldn't a current price guide provide that information to you?

Arthur

Stone193

<< <i>All i'm asking is what people feel are the most popular modern sets and which ones trade for the most money. Nothing more and nothing less :-) >>


blacksoxfan

Popularity/demand and price unfortunately are concomitants - so pretty much a price guide will tell you what's hot and what's not.

I like the Bowman, Bowman Chromes, Heritage sets.

If a set costs you a pretty penny - one would automatically assume that it's popular? Just because something's expensive doesn't automatically mean that it's popular from a "masses" point of view - in fact the masses probably can't afford the set in the first place.

Just something to think about - I really don't follow all the modern sets as close as I used to - I like sets that are interesting to look at, that are affordable (3-4$ per pack), and have a decent chance to complete without a 2nd mortgage.

mike

blacksoxfan

I'm asking b/c i run an online price guide and we are trying to figure out which modern sets to provide pricing information for first. :-) Hope that clarifys things.

Cheers,

XanaduNow

I hate to downplay in any this board but I'd have to think that a current price guide or a browse on eBay would be much more beneficial for you. I only say this because most people on this board are much more intuned with vintage cards (although I have no doubt that there are members here with extensive knowledge of all kind) and the sample size of the population is a minute fraction of what the other guides and eBay will provide you.

I haven't looked but I'll bet you've gotten responses from somewhere between 10-12 different people regarding this topic. The current guides and eBay represent a global view of what is currently trading well and not so well. In for anyone to accurately gauge the ups and down of any market you have to take into account the largest possible view of that market.

If I sat here and proclaimed the relevance and importance of the 1998 Bowman's Best set would that help you? I hope not.

Good luck.

Arthur

Stone193

<< <i>I'm asking b/c i run an online price guide and we are trying to figure out which modern sets to provide pricing information for first. :-) Hope that clarifys things.

Cheers, >>


blacksox

IMO, and I think many will attest - the best on-line priceguide is Ebay...

I think the guides are usually off - tho a good gauge - but ebay reflects the prices - or at least lets someone know what the item has sold for most recently.

mike

blacksoxfan

This is treading very closely into "advertising" so i want to be very careful here. I don't want to advertise our product unless we are asked to. We have an eBay data license and are using real ebay prices as well as auction house results to provide our "guides". :-) Ebay is the best place, we're just taking that data and making it more useful for card collectors. I hope that is enough of an explanation to clarify my intentions with this thread. Thanks guys for all your help!

Stone193

<< <i>This is treading very closely into "advertising" so i want to be very careful here. I don't want to advertise our product unless we are asked to. We have an eBay data license and are using real ebay prices as well as auction house results to provide our "guides". :-) Ebay is the best place, we're just taking that data and making it more useful for card collectors. I hope that is enough of an explanation to clarify my intentions with this thread. Thanks guys for all your help! >>


Very cool and good luck.

Someone else posted a while back - who were doing the same thing - and the subscription price was kind of high if memory serves.

mike

Ahmanfan

5niner, why are you ONLY interested in heritage and archives cards? Don't you appreciate neat looking new designs? I dont collect them really, but I think some new cards are pretty interesting.

blacksoxfan

<< <i>

<< <i>This is treading very closely into "advertising" so i want to be very careful here. I don't want to advertise our product unless we are asked to. We have an eBay data license and are using real ebay prices as well as auction house results to provide our "guides". :-) Ebay is the best place, we're just taking that data and making it more useful for card collectors. I hope that is enough of an explanation to clarify my intentions with this thread. Thanks guys for all your help! >>


Very cool and good luck.

Someone else posted a while back - who were doing the same thing - and the subscription price was kind of high if memory serves.

mike >>



Thanks Mike,
Yes we are aware of that company. That's not us :-) Thanks though for the well wishes. I appreciate all the help everybody.

joestalin

You could spend the rest of your life just following bowman chrome and draft. Those are the only sets that really go up and down
in a matter of days. If you are knowledgable about the minor league players then you can do quite a bit with these sets. All the other
sets that have been mentioned such as Archives and Heritage are static sets....they arn't going down anytime soon and usually won't
spike up at anytime..even though each new release peaks peoples intrest in past sets.

I think for most sets ebay and even beckett (gasp) are fine. There is a nicht to be found in these rookie chrome sets!

JS