Prognoticators: Please give us your thoughts on how the "Modern" market segment will devel
SanctionII
Posts: 12,619 ✭✭✭✭✭
With more information arising about this market segment being made available, with more extensive price guides being made available and with ten more years worth of YN's entering the hobby, this market will hopefully grow and mature.
Wish I had a crystal ball.
Wish I had a crystal ball.
0
Comments
<< <i>10 years from now, it will still be "modern crap". Everybody who wants it, can get it. At small shows, every dealer has the same crap. People have hoarded sets and rolls up the ying yang. Gee, could I please see that rareity you have, with only 1 billion mintage? What the hell is the matter with people?
One safe bet is that there won't be many who believe this in ten years.
I've always figured that the market would explode at some point in time. As more and more
newbies continue to push prices higher there should come a time when old timers start taking
notice. While this has been hardly seen to date, these markets tend to still be pretty small and
most of the moderns that have done well can be written off as anomalies or the result of irration-
al exuberance. As time goes on and the rarities continue to increase it will get increasingly dif-
ficult to ignore and oldtimers and speculators will pour in. There really isn't enough of the better
moderns to withstand such demand and prices will soar and then collapse as speculators get far
ahead of collector demand.
Consider that the '50-D nickel with an availability of millions got up to $150 in todays money or
more than half a million dollars per bag. These were the darling of speculators because the ten
million kids in the hobby would drive the price far higher. Guess what? Not a single clad eagle
reverse quarter exists in unc in anything close to the number of '50-D nickels. Some are likely
scarcer than some of the "key dates" that are currently so popular.
Eventually more and more people will come to recognize these facts and the 100 million new col-
lectors will absorb the older moderns. This may not happen in only ten years but it will happen
and the hobby will be affected by it.
In the 60's how much were Gem Morgans selling for????
Now let's try Super Gem Ikes??? Go find me some, and you'll see what is rare.
I'll pay $4000 for every PCGS MS67 Clad Ike you bring me (except the 76-D Type II those are a mere $2500 per coin).
Bet you can't find me more than 3 coins in the next month.
Look through those millinos of rolls, get dirty fingers and still come up dry!!!!
Even Jack Lee knows how tough these are....and yes these will stay on the growth path for years to come. When those million collectors want a MS67 Ike, they can battle over around 100 coins out of the billions made.
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
But as time marches on and if the high grade pops do not increase for certain coins they will become more and more desirable. The longer the time period that goes by the lesser the chances of a super high grade coin appearing. The inverse rarity curve. (i just made that up). Bob
<< <i>100 million new collectors is a little optmistic. And even if there is that many how do you know they will collect moderns? >>
It takes only two to put pressure on the unique coins.
Most of the newbies are collecting mosly ultramoderns but there are some
going back into classics and moderns. I don't think there can possibly be a
stampede to classics without going through moderns.
one thing that would cause real growth in this hobby sector is the involvement of a major dealer(s) who typically only market Classic coinage. that's not going to happen until the current state of high prices lowers considerably and remains flat for an extended period. there's just too much money to be gained by remaining involved in Classics. marketing is the key for upward movement and it will eventually invole Modern issues.
Russ, NCNE
I hope the modern hypsters go the way of the dodo as well!
The thing that I like about "Modern" coins is that you have a wide variety of coins to choose from, with many such coins being dirt cheap (i.e., I picked up some high grade MS clad quarters and proofs with beautiful toning for about $.33 per MS quarter and about $1.00 per proof), incredibly beautiful (especially the toned coins), and extremely hard to find.
Inexpensive, high grade, eye appealing, hard to find coins combine to make an "opportunity" one should consider taking (heck, even if moderns do not float your boat, just close your eyes, spend a hundred bucks on some carefully selected raw moderns, store them away for 20 years and then pull them out to see what you have). I unknowingly did this in the 1960's and 1970's as a kid/young adult when I pulled out new coins from pocket change, put them in Whitman albums, put them away for 25-35 years and retrieved them a few years ago. I was very surprised at what I had set aside and how great these coins look now.
I do not focus solely on moderns, in fact I have multiple classics and want to acquire more of them. However, if I see a to die for raw modern that is hard to find in high grades with eye appeal, I will not hesitate to spend a few bucks on it.
<< <i>10 years from now, it will still be "modern crap". Everybody who wants it, can get it. At small shows, every dealer has the same crap. People have hoarded sets and rolls up the ying yang. Gee, could I please see that rareity you have, with only 1 billion mintage? What the hell is the matter with people?
I bought 2 1999 silver proof sets and sold them for about 10x what I paid for them. It's a little hard for me to feel like a sucker.
Have ya been watching modern mintages lately? Some of them are starting to look more like mintages from the late 19th century, and there's a heck of a lot more collectors now then there was then.
<< <i> I see a reverse satin First Lady platimun with the "D" mintmark and non-reeded edge in their future.... >>
I see that, too.. with a mintage of only 2,000! The question is, will anyone care?
I well remember an article by a longtime coin dealer who was amused by the commemorative coins prices. He remembered being new to the coin business and being unable to sell off a whole bunch of some commemorative coin for $2.5 each. When the article was written the same coins were selling for around $100 each. Even taking inflation into account the coins appreciated nicely.
We can make fun of "moderns" all we want but the truth is some group of collectors will collect them. The unknown factor is how many people chase after how many coins. I imagine they might be like me and begin collecting easily found coins from circulation and then try to buy up coins to fill the holes in their collection. Then they will start to upgrade the coins they do have. From then on, with the internet to make finding coins "easy," prices will follow supply and demand.
The only prediction I will make is "modern" coins will follow an established pattern in a much bigger fashion. There at huge numbers of coins out there. Take gold, unless it grades above a certain number it is "generic" gold. Look at 1950's wheatback cents; they are worth barely above "melt" until they get to MS-65. Many, many modern coins will be worth face or barely above face until they get to MS-65ish land. Then we'll all wish we had a few set aside to sell.
While I enjoy Cladking's posts and careful tracking of varieties, unless his posts can create a market for some of those die varieties, they will sell for the same prices as all of the "common" die varieties of each said date and mintmark. He keeps pushing the scarcity of some die varieties, good luck creating a market for them.
I still like coins, looking through them, looking at the ones I have and learning more about them. That's why I enjoy this board and posts like this one.
<< <i>The modern market will be in flux and near extinction.
As time goes by and the people who bought the high end , high grade, low pop stuff come to realize the pops have multiplied by huge percentages and they can't sell or even dump out-there will be almost no liquidity.
Todays $5,000.00 pop 1 Modern wdget isn't tomorrow pop 2 or 3. It will be pop 100 or 200++++. SHOW ME A MARKET WHERE YOU CAN HAVE POPS AND PRICES INCREASE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME. A market like that doesn't exist.
In 10 years, IMHO half or more of the modern collectors will have LOST money. And then, the wannabes arrive...... >>
Compare pops for Ikes and Morgans. Where Morgans sometimes exist in the tens of thousands, most Ikes
can't even get out of the hundreds. Ikes have been getting slabbed for as long as Morgans were ten years
ago. Few things have really changed all that much in ten years except the demand for moderns.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>
<< <i>Into the toilet!! >>
This is a very convincing arguement and a very interesting sentence fragment.
No doubt the many millions of modern collectors in the world will now see the error of their ways. >>
It was my succinct answer to the question "Please give us your thoughts on how the "Modern" market segment will develop over the next 10 years?".
As presented, it didn't call for a "yes" or "no" answer.
Like the 1950 D nickel and the "roll craze" of the '50s-60s, those who covet hi grade modern stuff will end up holding the bag (the bigger fool theory) IMO. Even worse are modern hi dollar toners--by definition they either were AT'ed or improperly stored.
Moderns and Registry sets have fared well on the backs of huge liquidity dumped into our economy from 1996 onward. Once this ends and contracts in a big boom, classics will retreat sharply, and moderns will be decimated. There will be of course exceptions as in any market. If I'm into coins in 10 yrs, I'll want to be in something that has a long track record of success and stability. Remember modern market is hand in hand with a continued and vibrant REGISTRY set market. There are many successfull parts of the classic market not dependent on a registry (colonials, patterns, type coins, most circs, major rarities, proof gold, etc.).
roadrunner
<< <i>
It was my succinct answer to the question "Please give us your thoughts on how the "Modern" market segment will develop over the next 10 years?".
As presented, it didn't call for a "yes" or "no" answer.
Like the 1950 D nickel and the "roll craze" of the '50s-60s, those who covet hi grade modern stuff will end up holding the bag (the bigger fool theory) IMO. Even worse are modern hi dollar toners--by definition they either were AT'ed or improperly stored. >>
There were millions of people chasing rolls of '50-D nickels and the other coins of
the era. The '50-D bag was worth over half a million dollars in todays money despite
the fact that even the bags were common. This market segment was the hottest at
that time. There were ads in all the coin papers offering to buy and sell rolls and bags
of recently made coins at high prices. This was during an acute coin shortage and the
powers that be blamed collectors for the shortage. This led to many steps to discour-
age this market and ushered in the modern coins. There was even a proposal (Bible bill)
to make collecting new coins illegal. It turned out to not be necessary because the other
methods were highly successfull. People stopped collecting new coins and this is what
defines modern coins; they weren't collected. Some were saved anyway, but they were
not systematically collected.
The price of the '50-D nickel crashed because it was very common and high priced. Any
time a common collectible becomes high priced it is simply a matter of time until it crashes.
Certainly some moderns are common in high grade but for the main part they aren't high
priced where they are common. Many of the moderns were very few and very far between
in high grade when they were made and a couple generations in circulation has not im-
proved them. High grade Ikes will always be much scarcer than high grade Morgans simply
because they were made in far smaller numbers and then got used rather than sat in vaults
until the '60's and '70's. Does this mean they are more valuable than Morgans or equally
valuable? No!!! Value is assigned by the demand and demand is based on individual percep-
tions much more than on scarcity or some sort of vaguely defined desirability. But there is
simply no question that they are far scarcer nearly across the board and they are generally
far cheaper in the marketplace.
Sure, you're entirely correct that $5,000 for a piece of crap Ike dollar is a lot of money and
it just might crash in price. But if you think about what really makes coins desirable rather
than what makes a coin desirable to you, then it seems improbable you'll think any scarce
coin that is becoming increasingly collected is likely to simply crash.
I do not believe these coins slabbed are worth more than slab cost over their raw price. I think the MS / PR 70 pieces are grossly over valued / priced as there are many more out there in raw state that have the potential for this grade. Reminds me of when common date Morgan Dollars in 65 were going for $1000.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>These coins are common for the most part compard to classical rare coins and always will be. . >>
Moderns range from unique to distressingly common just as the classics do.
The biggest difference is when the numbers are the same the classic will sell for many times as much as the modern.
To use a MS67 clad Ike or a MS66 1983 25c as the typical modern is not reality. When this market cycle draws to a close, I won't want to be holding the MS66 trade dollar nor a MS67 clad Ike. I'd much prefer to have a nice circ 1799 large cent or 1872-s quarter.
roadrunner
<< <i>This is my gut feeling, and please feel free to disagree with it if you have another. The supply of raw material is not increasing, and some coins have been revealed to be genuinely scarce. Coins like the 65 SMS half in deep cameo, coins like the 82-P/83-P Washington with strong strike and eye appeal, coins like the 72-P Ike in gem+, etc. Those coins won't suddenly become available in bulk. Supply is not the issue, only demand. As interest in the hobby goes, so go moderns. >>
I think you hit this on the head Don.
Some of these issues are true rarities and will be proven to be such in the long run. These coins will hold their own and rise in "value". What a lot of people have to consider are those other pieces, that while "pretty" are common as dirt. I am referring to the high pop ubber goober cam proof coins of the 70's, 80's and 90's that people pay big bucks for that are saved in the thousands in proof sets. Take a 68DCAM (for example) in PCGS plastic that has a base of hundreds of thousands available in 67DCAM in government holders that the owners wouldn't ever consider sending in for slabbing. Do you think 10 years from now these could be dumped for anywhere near where they are selling for today?
Yes people are making a lot of money making and selling these, but even they admit they would never buy these- only make them and sell them. When this turns - its over. Head out from under the pillow time.
Maybe these same makers and sellers will be into making and selling civil war cannon balls in single shot condition
I am going to start looking on the Bay for cannon balls now.....
edited for spelling
should we remember that because it's some absolute truth or because it's part of your prognostication?? the misconception as i see it in this type of arguement(most often made by collectors/dealers who don't specialize in Moderns, with knowledge confined to what they see, hear and read) is that there are no already identifiable Modern scarcities. that's just not true.
while many such as yourself look at the Registry Set phenomenon in a negative way i choose to look at it from the other side. one thing it's done is cause collectors/dealers to search for the very best coins possible in the large numbers available. what the end result of that has been is a relative change in what rarity is, from absolute rarity to grade rarity, not necessarily a bad thing, just a different thing. collectors have had to change from trying to find any grade of a certain issue to finding the best grade of a certain issue. the difficulty factor in either is probably equal while the pricing is anything but on a comparative scale. absolute rarity will always be more desired and hence, more expensive.
as happened with the crash in 1989-1990, pretty much everything will fall except the very best coins. your example of MS67 Clad Ikes is actually a very good one. let's look at the current PCGS pop numbers of all non-silver dates in MS67:
1971-----0.
1971-D-----14.
1972 Type 1-----0.
1972 Type 2-----0.
1972 Type 3-----0.
1972-D-----4.
1973-----0.
1973-D-----10.
1974-----0.
1974-D-----14.
1976 Type 1-----0.
1976 Type 2-----8.
1976-D Type 1-----2.
1976-D Type 2-----23.
1977-----4.
1977-D-----4.
1978-----5.
1978-D-----1.
these numbers are actually very astonishing when you consider how many coins have been looked at by PCGS, and while others will be found and the undergraded coins may someday move up, the pattern is clearly that MS66 is the highest expected grade from any sampling, with only a very minute number grading higher by one point(MS68 is a dream grade that i never expect to see). in other denominations the story is the same.
while generic issues and grades may fall, as will happen across the spectrum, Modern collectors are aware of the fact that there are certain winners, just as Classic collectors are aware of the same thing.
BTW - JRocco, I agree with your sentiment, but in the Kennedy series for example, all common proofs in PCGS PR69 Dcam can be had for $15 each. The crux of the argument about values seems to be focused on a few very expensive MS coins. Many aren't scarce, but a few are. JMO The magic's knowing the difference.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
1867-s quarter (MS66 at that time) fell by 50% over the next several years. Mr. Eureka's 1794 finest known (now SP66) dollar fell from $1 MILL to around $300K. 1804 dollars fell in price as well, so did the KOS proof set, gem proof gold, $4 stellas, and most finest knowns in every set (27-d Saints too). Very little was left untouched except circ coins, colonials, and other non-investor areas. Even gem Washington quarters got hammered. Of course there were sleepers to every rule but across the board, this was a bloodletting. Don't think that a MS67 clad Ike is immune to a 30-60% correction with a pop of "only" 60 or so coins. That's a lot of coins regardless. As long as there are 100 or more POP top Ike collectors with money to burn, the price of these Ikes will stay up.
Remember modern market is hand in hand with a continued and vibrant REGISTRY set market. There are many successfull parts of the classic market not dependent on a registry (colonials, patterns, type coins, most circs, major rarities, proof gold, etc.).
Nowhere in this thread have I stated that there were not individual moderns worthy of anyone's collection. In fact I stated just the opposite and gave 2 examples: MS67 clad Ikes and the 1983 25c
in MS66. There are dozens or hundreds more for sure. But that's agains millions of others that are slabbed hype. Without REG sets how could we have possibly morphed the modern market to where it is today. The same logic goes with classics and TPG's. How could we have ever gotten to the Frankenweenie Monster we have created with inconsistent gradeflation? Without TPG's and pop reports there would have always been a small demand for a gem IKE set. But it's ludicrous to believe that w/o the REG idea (ranking sets, posting sets, giving out awards, pop reports, price guides based on pops, etc.) that we would be where we are today.
TPG's saved the classic market in 1986-1987. The REG sets saved the modern market in the 1990's....as well as creating huge demand for 20th century classic sets. This is not intuition, just a factoid.
roadrunner
But when hoarding takes place, you get a mini- bubble that will dissipate in 10 years.
Example - all the hoarding of 1964 Kennedy Halves. There were more of them minted than the entire series of Franklin halves. Which would you rather own - a 1963 Franklin in MS67 or a 1964 Kennedy?
Sell me all your MS67 Clad Ikes for $4000 each (76-D Type II at $2500). I'll take up to 10.
Bet you guys can't even come up with one!!!
I'll also bet in the next 30 days not one board member will find one raw and be able to make a 67.
Try even 66's. Get the feedback from the folks who are looking. They are and will be much tougher in high grade than most Morgans, even though the mintages are higher.
Give me a try...I really do make a market in these!!!
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
a price support of $25-$50 I could see with a increase in demand these doubling in price. As new and old collectors start a collection that is certified.
Bid price on 45-P and 45-D just went to $60 a roll. Won't be long until 50-S 48-S and others take big leaps. These rolls are much harder to find unsearched than only 3 years ago.
While their seems to be many memorial rolls. These to are not offered as they use to be ( in large lots 100-500 rolls) and many are already picked over. Still their are plenty left
to find and slab the high end gems. But as the demand increases for the $25 wheat ms66 with a pop of 1000 now. What wil the price be for a 1961-D ms66 or MS67
I do not believe the pop of this date along with many memorials in ms66 will ever hit 1000 and in seven "100 or 200" Anyone who is trying to make a ms67 in this date as in others memorials knows that will never be. $2,000 - 4,000 for a ms67 today in a memorial pop-top with less than 10 coins is safe if not wise.
One other comment for the dealers who don't like moderns. I see moderns as a way collectors of modest means can enjoy what the big time collectors do. All the same aspects
of the registry and hunt are present. They are just downsized relative to dollars.
An example of why this forum is so worthwhile.
As far as a 72 P MS67 Ike goes, I suspect that Segoja's offer to buy them at $4,000.00 for the next thirty days will not result in a single such con being found and offered to him.
Some coins are simply next to impossible to find, even certain moderns. I have not looked for Ikes, but halve looked for over 7 years for a raw 1950 CAM Proof Frankie. Guess what, I have never found one and finally caved in and bought one slabbed. A CAM Proof 1950 Frankie is "Modern", but do not tell me it is a common coin, available by the truckload. So it goes with many other modern proof and MS coins.
Nice moderns and classics both float my boat. I collect both. The thing about moderns however is that you can still, with effort and luck, find and acquire these coins without having to dip into your trust fund or mortgage your house.
especially the ones that were perfectly minted this year, carefully placed in mint packaging, then carefully removed from the mint packaging, labelled 70, and placed in PCGS packaging!
Now that's a coin with stories to tell!
The market for these amazing relics can only go up up up as demand skyrockets!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I thought it was pretty clear that I was speaking theoretically, using this wide date range and ubber goober DCAM number as an example. >>
Yeah, sure.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought it was pretty clear that I was speaking theoretically, using this wide date range and ubber goober DCAM number as an example. >>
Yeah, sure.
Russ, NCNE >>
In ten years, we will have just about completed the new presidential dollars.
Any High Grade Mint State coin with eye appeal will still be worth what the market bears. Rarities and oddities will be HUGE money makers and finally, Gold will settle in at $1,200. an ounce. Oil and gas companies will dry up and make way to hydro/electric/solar/pneumatic power. Ever imagine flying your personal pedal bike to Mickey Dee's ?
But, as Russ has already said.... no one knows what the future holds.
My suspicion is that moderns by the year 2020 will somehow be any coins minted after the year 2000. Everything before then is going to be a modern classic....
Who would have ever thought a Sacagawea in MS68 would buy a house ?
drive me nuts making me go to dictionary.com all the time, too
prog·nos·ti·cate (prg-nst-kt)
1 To predict according to present indications or signs; foretell. See Synonyms at predict.
2 To foreshadow; portend: urban renewal that prognosticates a social and cultural renaissance.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>Modern coins are wonderful numismatic treasures!
especially the ones that were perfectly minted this year, carefully placed in mint packaging, then carefully removed from the mint packaging, labelled 70, and placed in PCGS packaging!
Now that's a coin with stories to tell!
The market for these amazing relics can only go up up up as demand skyrockets! >>
You're just jealous that none of your coins were made the year man landed on the moon.
Keep going folks, maybe we can shoot for 100.
You're just jealous that none of your coins were made the year man landed on the moon.
took these pics one minute ago, just because I don't like the plastic doesn't mean I don't like the coins
and keets, I seriously doubt it would say any of those things
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>You're just jealous that none of your coins were made the year man landed on the moon.
took these pics one minute ago, just because I don't like the plastic doesn't mean I don't like the coins
>>
I stand corrected.
You just don't like your coins from the year man landed on the moon in plastic.
I like nice choice '69-P's and will have to slab them for sale someday.