Does Anybody Study the Dismal Science of Numismatics?

IGWT

Has anybody ever undertaken a study of the numismatic economy? For example: (a) what is the total value of collectible coins in today’s market, (b) what percentage of that value is held by the top 10% of collectors, (c) what part of the total value is transferred on an annual basis, and (d) what is the total amount of income generated by the numismatic trade?

There must be some practitioners of the dismal science who’ve looked into questions like these.

500Bay

I'd read it if someone does this work. I'm sure many people here would.

I am reading "Coinage in the Roman Economy, 300 B.C. to A.D. 700" by Kenneth W. Harl. It is not what you suggest, but if you are interested in the Ancient Roman economy and the role of coinage in that economy, it is excellent.

Leiana

Hmm. I imagine that since a group of people, such as numismatists, essentially represents a microcosm of sorts, that there would be a similar ratio to the world distribution of wealth which I beleive is that 90% of the wealth is in the hands of 10% of the population.

-Amanda

Julio

Could you be a bit more specefic. What we talking here. Macroeconomics, Microeconomics or Econometrics? Just kidding. Excellent question. I'm gonna have to give that some thought. There are opposing veiws. Alan spoke in riddles, but he was good. Karl, well his theory had some merit, just didn't work. Heck, Toynbee, whom I truly admire knew it's importance. Tough question. Most people dont realize that economics is a driving force of history. Wow, you got me thinking, I'm in trouble now. Thanks for the challenge. My brain needs the exersize, now if I can just remember where I left it??? jws

buffnut

Extremely interesting question. Sounds like that would be the perfect subject for a doctoral dissertation in economics! The bear would of course be how you would measure some of the key factors in the study, like identifying the total value of all of the numismatic capital in the US (or the world for that matter). It is an ever changing figure too- as new varieties are discovered and values change. Then you must identify the largest stakeholders in the numismatic economy (maybe not impossible) and figure just how much percentage each holds. My head spins thinking about all of the research that would need to go into this, but man, what an interesting read that would be!

Longacre

Very interesting question. I know that QDB likes the economics of the coin market, and his High Profits book goes into some good analysis. I don't think I've seen anything that addresses your specific question. Taglione's book on prudent investing goes into some economics, too, and the book is very good.

Coinosaurus

There was, a couple years back, a sprited debate on this board regarding the annual gross sales of the rare coin market.

As I recall estimates ranged from $2B to $10B. Given the raging market, the true number is certainly higher today than it was two years ago.

Julio

The bear would of course be how you would measure some of the key factors in the study, like identifying the total value of all of the numismatic capital in the US (or the world for that matter). It is an ever changing figure too- as new varieties are discovered and values change. Then you must identify the largest stakeholders in the numismatic economy (maybe not impossible) and figure just how much percentage each holds. My head spins thinking about all of the research that would need to go into this, but man, what an interesting read that would be!

I agree. As the environment is never static and ever changing.
I have not given this question the thought nor time it would require to even form a hypothesis. Shooting from the hip I'm thinking the closest we can get is a model. The actual question, if I undertand it correctly has no definitive answer.
I do belieive with time and effort though a model could be formed based on historical stats. How accurate the model would be. Well that would just take time, and improvement as the theory is tested.
The variables blow me away. New fads, price of gas, war...... Still contemplating if the question can be cornered, so to speak, in any reliable manner.
It's always been tough to try to predict the future and history proves we do an extremely poor job trying.
What makes this question different is that we do have stats. We have learned to spell math. Heck, we've got computers so they can do the math.
A daunting challenge. Yep, ya can get this question answered, start a contest and award the winner a Nobel prize. Dang good question and I can't quit thinking about it. Thanks. jws

Cam40

the answer is...17

Julio

the answer is...17

Gentlemen/ladies we have a Nobel Laureate on the board. Gotta love the answer, think about it. He very well may be right. jws

Edited to add: Can you prove him wrong?

RedTiger

An outfit like Forbes could come up with a reasonable ballpark (if they haven't already done so). There is always going to be a grey area as far as valuations, retail, wholesale, replacement value.

Hard data might include auctions numbers from Ebay, Teletrade, Heritage, sales from the mint, number of coins graded for each valuation tier. Not all of that is public data, but it might be available with some digging. Coin show numbers are always going to be soft. The coins at a show move too fast and no one would volunteer to be tracked.

Julio

The Trend of Economic Thinking.
Friedrich A. Hayek
Good place to start. jws