Graded Baseball High Numbers Question

PSARich

Looking for feedback on baseball high numbers. The thought has been that the high numbered series are normally rarer cards due to less production late in the season. A trend I have noticed lately is that high numbered PSA 9, cards such as 1970 and 1972 baseball, are selling for less and less on ebay...in some cases at similar prices as earlier series cards. Their PSA high grade population is increasing, which begs the questions....Was their production as limited as was thought? Were they just not handled as much as cards from earlier series? Were there a lot of left over cartons, boxes, packs that didn't sell and entered the secondary market later? Will there be a time when the high series graded populations be similar to the earlier series? Those are thoughts I've had but I'm sure others have more of a handle on the high numbered series. Thanks.

gaspipe26

Everything is POP driven

jimq112

Rich, for sure the 72 topps high numbers were short printed and short sold. It came out late and baseball was close, so there wasn't much demand at the wholesale level. Topps sold a crapload of it for less than nothing to larry fritsch. I think what I read was he paid shipping for it and that was cheaper for topps than destroying it would have cost. Heck of a financial windfall for mr fritsch!

With the high prices on ebay for low pop cards, more cards that were hiding in collections have been sent in recently and so the pop is increasing. It can't really decrease of course. That card that was a pop 2 a couple years ago and went for $900 might be a pop 12 now, and sell for $200. Like gaspipe said POP drives everything.

Another thought is that there might have been more people working on a set a couple years ago, with less people on that set comes less demand and less fighting for that card. 10 people wanting a POP 5 card makes a happy seller. 5 people wanting a POP 10 isn't quite as good for the seller.

joemaggio

I think it's a simple matter of people grading what they think others want to buy. If you're not familiar with the Registry and you're trying to decide what 72's to have graded, I think people will send, in order, the stars and rookies, the high numbers then the low number commons.

Of course, someone with an understanding of low pop's will send those in first, but usually that's only a handful of cards in a 25-200 card batch.

Using 72's as an example, rank the following cards in the order in which you'd have them graded if you could only send one at a time. Why?

Jim Hickman
Hal McRae In Action
Roberto Clemente
Bobby Murcer In Action

RonBurgundy

This is a great example of why it is risky to spend hundreds of dollars on "low-pop" commons. It is inevitable that more of the low pop cards will appear, which will reduce their selling prices thereby causing a loss to the foolhardy buyer. Except for some (not all) pre-1960 issues and a handful of the toughest cards (see, e.g., 1962 Topps Don Landrum in PSA 8) people who want to complete registry sets are much better off trying to find low pop cards raw, then have them graded. A much tougher task, perhaps, but less risky in the long run.

All of the above only applies, of course, if you care about how much money to spend. If you have money to burn, burn it.



Ron

PSARich

Joemaggio: I would probably go with Clemente for the obvious reasons, especially if it was NM-Mint or better. Point being that its value will probably remain high. Bobby Mercer is a high number as I remember so that is a tempting second choice if other factors we've discussed are constant. I'm guessing that of the other two, the population number in high condition is a factor in your scenario. After the Clemente, I would have to do some homework. Your point is well taken.

diamondman

1. Hal McRae In Action tough card and big $ in it's a 9
2. Roberto Clemente Star HOF
3. Bobby Murcer In Action High # and low POP
4. Jim Hickman cause it's last
those are my picks

5STAT

If I'm hoping for 9's and praying for 10's on these cards...

McRae IA.... only 2- 9's...NO 10's..out of 44 graded
Murcer ...only 17- 9's and one 10...plus Yankees..out of 107 graded
Hickman.....only 26 9's and NO 10's...out of 93 graded
Clemente last....130- 9's..and 5- 10's already...you know either way this card will always sell....but if you hit one of the others..it's a sure payday!!

lostdart58

1. The Mcrae IA is one of the toughest cards in the set....a PSA 8 will garner anywhere between $100- $200...and maybe more because they rarely come up. There are only two PSA 9 of this card. The next PSA 9 will garner over $500- $1000...the fourth and fifth less then half that.

2. The Clemente card is plentiful and fairly consistent in price but has a good demand a PSA 8 goes for between $90 - $125. A PSA 9 runs between $275-$350. The price for this card runs fairly consistant.

3. Murcer IA has a Yankee following but is not that low in pop. A PSA 8 runs between $35-$50...a PSA 9 around $100 +

4. Hickman card......nothing special about this card....pSA 8 can be had for $5-$10.....PSA 9 $18-$22

These figures come from a person (me) who has followed 1972 topps prices on ebay on a daily basis for closing in on two years.....

gemint

I would agree with others who stated that the high numbers are more plentiful in graded form because collectors are more motivated to submit them over the low number commons. Even though the high numbers are scarcer, anything in the 1970s isn't all that scarce. You can usually find an unopened 6th series wax box in every Mastro auction. There are still a lot of high grade raw sets out there as well. Getting a population of 30 or so 9s of an early 1970s common isn't that surprising given that there are likely 10s to hundreds of thousands of each card floating around the hobby.

This makes buying high grade raw high number commons for Beckett or higher prices a big risk. Often you lose money if it grades 8 and sometimes even when it grades a 9.

diamondman

My thought on 1972 Topps.
The high numbers are the tough ones. Least made and will always be. as for value time will tell, as psa population goes everyone submits the high numbers. I think the value is low for a Psa 8 High # SMR is 15.00 I think it should be 20.00. SMR is 60.00
for a PSA 9. I think that is about right. The 5th series I believe is the one that is undervalued.reason being it is treated just like
series 1-4 in the SMR PSA 8 10.00 PSA 9 45.00. In beckettt the 5th series calls for 4.00 series 1-4, 50 cents to 1.25. I believe there should Be a distinction in the SMR for the 5th series. There is a distinction In Set Composition in the PSA Registry all 5th
series are weighted as 2 and the 6th series is weighted as 3. I have been dealing and collecting for the better part of 35 years,
and I have always seen an abundance of series 1-4 singles and wax. series 5 & 6 have always been tougher. I truly believe series 1-4 are overpriced as far as PSA population goes everyone submits the stars and the high numbers and I donot believe reflects
the overall production of the 1972 set. That's my 2 cents worth. Also I am happy to say i just bought on ebay four PSA 8 1972 5th series carrds for 10.57 each average and think I got a good deal #588 only 11 higher, #596 only 13 higher #643 only 12 higher, and 654 only 12 higher. I think if you want something really tough try 1971 Topps black border BB, built one 14 years ago and sold it, wish I had kept that one. Had one dealer who i consider my mentor tell me everything past the 1966 BB High numbers was overproduced garbage. Myself I think everything past 1973. Just MOO (my opinion only). Before I start getting beat up I have alot of garbage uh I mean cards after 1973.