Spectacular old cars, old paintings, and other collectibles are highly prized and put away into strong hands. While most cars from the 30's to 50's are not as prized today since the owners are passing away, the car craze has shifted into the 60's, 70's and 80's and is red hot. Hemi Cuda convertibles for $2,000,000 and up! You bet. You could have bought one brand new in 1971 for $5000.
<< <i>Markham; very provacative post. My guess, designed to illicit responses. You should consider a future in Tabloid Journalism. There you will get paid. Here you will get nothing but hundreds of responses pointing out the obvious. I am saddened that I played a part in your 15 minutes of fame. . jws >>
I agree with you!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing. When was the last time you hugged your kids? There is alot more I value than my coin collection.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Numismatics is already stratified pretty much. There are coins that are only bought by wealthy collectors, just as are original Picassos, and will remain among them in all economies. They will never go to face value. When I was a kid, we collected pennies and nickels from pocket change. But even given our modest means, we were willing to save and pay premiums for unavailable dates. That won't change when adult collectors have little discretionary money. There is the entire spectrum in between those extremes. Coin collecting will remain intact and have its ebbs and flows but won't collapse to the proposed level. In fact, if the economy is at its worst, these may be among those more attractive assets.
Gee, I wonder how my grandparents made it through the depression when it was "the end of the world?!"
If you think about it, every generation looks at the next younger generation (or two) and decides that it's all over. (e.g., "I'm glad I was born when I was" - "The whole country is going to He11 in a handbasket", etc., etc., etc.)
It's OK kids, relax and everthing will be okay....
Mike
Coppernicus
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
I recently liquidated 50K in collectibale coins and I will use the proceeds to purchase bullion. I have concerns that the government's reckless fiscal policies will eventually impact the collectibles market. My biggest bet for now is with bullion.
<< <i>If you think about it, every generation looks at the next younger generation (or two) and decides that it's all over. (e.g., "I'm glad I was born when I was" - "The whole country is going to He11 in a handbasket", etc., etc., etc.) >>
"WILL YOU KIDS PLEASE TURN DOWN THAT JUNGLE MUSIC!" -- screamed by parents and grandparents since 1890.
Coxe - My grandparents thought that their kids listening to Frank Sinatra was the end of it all (no where near as good as Tommy Dorsey!)...my parents thought the Beatles and the Stones were "just noise"... and now I listen to the music that my 15 year-old daughter likes and I wonder, "What is this world coming to?!"
Same old, same old...
Mike
Coppernicus
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
Changes to the hobby caused by economic changes resulting from increasing energy costs may pale in significance to the changes caused by demographic trends.
Even if the the energy situation did become severe it could be highly beneficial to the hobby. The great depression marked one of the strongest growth peri- ods for the hobby because large numbers of people weren't working and had a lot of time on their hands. The same thing might happen if there is another recesssion.
There is also the declining importance of cash (and coins) in everyday commerce. This, too, could profoundly affect collecting but this may take a little more than twenty years.
The one thing which seems safe to say is that the hobby will be very different in twenty years.
No cheap energy? I have solar panels on my roof that provide me with 100% of my home energy needs with a bit to spare. There was an initial outlay of cash, but now the energy is pretty cheap. And, if I got one of those electric smart cars and plugged it in to my home system, I'd be totally green. I think that your doomsday scenario fails to take into consideration alternate sources of cheap energy.
hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Here is my question to you-If the economy collapses and the paper money becomes worthless-WHO is going to eat? The person with gold and silver bullion, or the person with worthless paper dollars? Gold and silver will always advance in time in this light. There will be ups and downs and high high peaks and low low lows, But with paper money there is an unlimited supply-it is called the national debt-every time there is an increase in the national debt there is more paper money in circulation. Politicians from both political parties can say what they want-the national debt will never be eliminated-it will always expand. There is a limited supply of gold and silver on this earth. Just ask the people of Germany in 1919-21 what a wheelbarrow load of paper money bought. A lot of countries in Europe accept US dollars as they have no credible currency-even communist countries countries like China and Russia want US dollars- I do not think that Gold will be $2000 an ounce in the near future, nor do i think that the paper money will be worthless soon, but if it comes to believing which is more stable i believe gold and silver trump everything else. Bob
<< <i> hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Here is my question to you-If the economy collapses and the paper money becomes worthless-WHO is going to eat? >>
No one would be eating after about 5-7 days. Soup kitchens, red cross packages, etc. Wackos in their bunkers, with pre-positioned food stores and weapons, would probably last the longest.
But the basic premise is seriously flawed to begin with - there are systems in place which prevent the economy from collapsing. Naturally, sellers of bullion for "survival" purposes, do not include this information in their advertising...
Before it happens in the US, you would see world-wide chaos - as much of the global economy is based on US markets. I don't believe it will happen in our lifetime.
Every few years some bozo comes out with a book about the coming financial collapse and finds thousands of sheep who buy it up, because they do not understand simple economics, and because everyone wants to be "prepared" for some mystical disaster.
It is a bunch of balogna, IMHO.
John
John C. Knudsen, LM ANA 2342, LM CSNS 337 SFC, US Army (Ret.) 1974-1994
there are systems in place which prevent theeconomy from collapsing. This is true as long as people keep the faith in a paper dollar and a fiat currency.There were systems in place in 1929 too.They are not infallible. I still contend that the more paper money in circulation the higher bullion will go-inflation is everywhere.. If anyone here agrees with the original post and thinks that collector coins will fall to bullion values i will gladly buy their collector coins at any time for bullion value. (by the way i do not collect any bullion-i only collect collector coins)
<< <i>First of all, I am not a coin collector. I do, however, believe that I have a fairly good grasp of how the world works and what is coming soon. The hobby of coin collecting is solely a function of the excess wealth created in the United States as a result of cheap energy. Cheap energy is gone, and the world as we know it will soon follow. Hobbies, such as coin collecting, restoring old cars, etc., which have been accessible to the middle class for the last 60 years, will quickly fall by the wayside. The "value" which has been placed upon exotic items will disappear. The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out. >>
<< <i>What makes you think we can't have cheap energy any more? Ever hear of ethanol? It's made out of corn. What country grows more corn than any other? Guess. >>
I've never understood that argument. Do you have any idea how much energy it takes to make and especially distill ethanol? They are trying to build an ethanol plant here, it's going to run on natural gas. It will also consume more than 300 million gallons of water a year to produce 100 million gallons of ethanol. They figure the ethanol finally produced will cost only a little more than gasoline. Of course since ethanol doesn't contain as much energy as gasoline you have to use about 25% more ethanol to do the same work. And then you still have a waste disposal problem of what to do with about 80 million gallons of glycerin produced. It does have industrial uses, but these ethanol plants are goin to be producing these hundreds of millions of gallons more than industry requires. Ethanol might make since in areas where it can be produced from sugar cane where it can be made from sugar where the production is MUCH simpler than from the starch in corn and without as much waste byproduct.
Oh and using the production capacity of the typical ethanol plant compared to this counties consumption of gasoline, we would have to build almost 4000 ethanol plants to replace the gasoline consumption.
hey Mike, please stop being the voice of reason!!!! nobody ever wonders why Brazil already has a plant up and running and the technological world leader is still trying to figure it out and wind it's way through the red ticker tape. simple solutions are oftentimes complicated by the simple fact that the dollars need to get into the right pockets. i'm always amazed by the fact that so many think America can go on forever while we constantly lose ground to the rest of the world and are gradually becoming more and more of a service based economy. at the pace we're moving we need to keep the ol' war machine up and running, it's the heart and soul of American industry and technology. when we lose that, it's only a matter of time.
i love America and i love the freedom our society allows me to enjoy which includes this hobby. what i hate is watching it be sold down the river while so many delude themselves that our way of life will never be challenged and, indeed, isn't currently being challenged. i work in heavy industry(polymer production) to the degree that the product i personally handle is used by virtually every American on a daily basis, yet i feel no job security in the long term. i've worked in heavy industry for my entire working life of over 30 years and it has slowly vanished like the mist while the cost of what i used to produce has risen and been made overseas.
as far as the energy issue goes, we've been wrangling with this beast since about 1973 and get all worked up about it until gas prices lower. with each round the prices go up a bit higher and then come down a bit less. if we, as a Nation, would get serious about alternative forms the problem could be solved. unfortunately, money talks.
<< <i>hey Mike, please stop being the voice of reason!!!! nobody ever wonders why Brazil already has a plant up and running and the technological world leader is still trying to figure it out and wind it's way through the red ticker tape. simple solutions are oftentimes complicated by the simple fact that the dollars need to get into the right pockets. i'm always amazed by the fact that so many think America can go on forever while we constantly lose ground to the rest of the world and are gradually becoming more and more of a service based economy. at the pace we're moving we need to keep the ol' war machine up and running, it's the heart and soul of American industry and technology. when we lose that, it's only a matter of time.
i love America and i love the freedom our society allows me to enjoy which includes this hobby. what i hate is watching it be sold down the river while so many delude themselves that our way of life will never be challenged and, indeed, isn't currently being challenged. i work in heavy industry(polymer production) to the degree that the product i personally handle is used by virtually every American on a daily basis, yet i feel no job security in the long term. i've worked in heavy industry for my entire working life of over 30 years and it has slowly vanished like the mist while the cost of what i used to produce has risen and been made overseas.
as far as the energy issue goes, we've been wrangling with this beast since about 1973 and get all worked up about it until gas prices lower. with each round the prices go up a bit higher and then come down a bit less. if we, as a Nation, would get serious about alternative forms the problem could be solved. unfortunately, money talks. >>
Well said.
Another interesting thing, for me, is the fact that gas prices in Europe (for example), are generally 100-200% more than gas prices in the US. Why is that? More taxes, or what?
Here in Germany they are serious about their alternate-energy programs. You see these huge wind-plants almost everywhere you go.
John
John C. Knudsen, LM ANA 2342, LM CSNS 337 SFC, US Army (Ret.) 1974-1994
<< <i> If 90% of the collectors are trying to unload 5 years from now, what do you think will happen to prices? >>
Collectors do not unload........investors do. Collectors do what the name implies, they collect. Sometimes what they collect can cost a lot of money but they collect just for the love of collecting.
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
Just remember that fertilizer takes alot of fuel in production too. With a finite land capacity EtOH is not the answer, but it can help reduce some of the burden. Wind and solar are the true renewable sources.....
BTW, anyone who wants to dump, I'll pay 5x bullion for all your keys!!! Hurry, the sky is falling......
Oh my gosh, I heard there is a huge meteor heading for earth!! Everyone drop your coins, er.. whatever you're doing and run for shelter!!!
Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony. Will’sProoflikes
Here in Germany they are serious about their alternate-energy programs. You see these huge wind-plants almost everywhere you go.
John, another example of red tape, this time political. maybe a better term would be red rope as in hands tied. all the bleeding heart groups are worried about migrating waterfowl and other wildlife whenever alternate forms come into question. silly really, when balanced against the amount of wildlife saved and even increased in numbers by an improved overall environment simply by the reduction in petro-use.
Interesting post. I really think before the sky falls because of energy costs, alternative energy options will be implemented. It is only a matter of "how ugly" it has to get before this transition takes place. I do beleive it will get ugly.
Will coin values suffer during this time frame? Probably, but I do not believe the picture is as grim as you paint it to be.
As much of a concern rising fuel cost are, I am equally if not more so concerned with the ever climbing abuse of credit cards and other paths so readily available to society that are allowing people to live outside their means.This seems to be growing and growing....
I will continue to collect coins thru thick and thin.......
<< <i> all the bleeding heart groups are worried about migrating waterfowl and other wildlife whenever alternate forms come into question. >>
I hear a lot from the anti-windmill people about how the wind generators would decimate migrating birds. I have to wonder just how true that is. I think they envision them as whirling like a planes propeller or the blades of a fan. Most of the ones I've seen running seem to be turning at about 2 to 4 revolutions per minute. Now most birds don't fly at night unless they have too. So that means they are migrating during the daytime when they can see these relatively slow moving blades. I don't see too many birds running into trees, high tension towers, each other etc, why can't they keep from being clobbered by these blades too?
What evidence is there that this is a problem? Are there piles of dead birds around the wind turbines that are up and running? I haven't seen any pictures, and you would think if they existed the anti-windmill people would be trotting them out all the time to prove their point.
By the way Keets, Brazil uses sugar for their ethanol production.
By the way Keets, Brazil uses sugar for their ethanol production.
i knew that and it was the reason for my reply about making sense.
i liken your explanation of production costs to a comparison of some of the huge mass transit projects undertaken in various parts of the country in the 70's and 80's. the whole basis of the idea is to save energy, yet the cost of the projects in terms of "energy used" will almost never be recouped, and if it is, the timeframe is ridiculous. ideas that sound good aren't always good when implemented. living within a mile of the Perry Nuclear facility is a good example of this premise; it was originally designed as a Twin Tower facility but when costruction reached a mandated completion percentage on the second tower, it was cancelled and the cost passed along to taxpayers.
<< <i>I recently liquidated 50K in collectibale coins and I will use the proceeds to purchase bullion. I have concerns that the government's reckless fiscal policies will eventually impact the collectibles market. My biggest bet for now is with bullion. >>
Yup, the government's reckless fiscal policies made bullion a great bet in 1979 and 1980!!
Well I definitely provoked a wide range of comments. I did make my first post both because I was interested in the level of knowledge and interest in Peak Oil, energy, and economic issues on this forum and because I was trying to make you think a little bit. I wasn't trying to bash anyones hobby.
I do strongly believe that we are approaching a perfect storm of energy and economic issues, and that the United States will be hurt worse than just about anyone. I don't expect a Mad Max future, but I do expect massive, painful changes in lifestyle and a much less pleasant life for most people. I hope that nobody here has sunk most of their finances into collectable coins, as they will probably take a significant loss in value. I do hope that people have invested in things that will (hopefully) maintain value over the next 20-30 years.
I do love coins and would love to collect silver dollars and gold coins. Right now, however, I am sticking with silver american eagles (not proofs), silver rounds and gold coins with no collectable premium.
If anybody wants to research energy issues, I recommend you head over to The Oil Drum, by far the most civilized, high level discussion forum you will find on this issue.
<< <i>Well I definitely provoked a wide range of comments. I did make my first post both because I was interested in the level of knowledge and interest in Peak Oil, energy, and economic issues on this forum and because I was trying to make you think a little bit. I wasn't trying to bash anyones hobby.
I do strongly believe that we are approaching a perfect storm of energy and economic issues, and that the United States will be hurt worse than just about anyone. I don't expect a Mad Max future, but I do expect massive, painful changes in lifestyle and a much less pleasant life for most people. I hope that nobody here has sunk most of their finances into collectable coins, as they will probably take a significant loss in value. I do hope that people have invested in things that will (hopefully) maintain value over the next 20-30 years.
I do love coins and would love to collect silver dollars and gold coins. Right now, however, I am sticking with silver american eagles (not proofs), silver rounds and gold coins with no collectable premium.
But in a truly apocalyptic situation, what value will gold and silver have? You can't eat it, you can't power your homes with it, you can't wear it to keep you warm...
For the doomsdayish things being described, forget gold and silver and invest in a property that can be self-sufficient in food and energy needs, a few guns and lots of ammo. A few guard dogs might not hurt, either.
<< <i>First of all, what does cheap energy have to do with coin collecting????
And second, I want some of what your drinking!!!!!!!
Get a rope!!!!! >>
I got the rope! But seriously, who really knows what the future will bring. We're already getting robbed at the gas pump. And in turn, everything goes up to supply to your grocer. And 80% plus are only earning 6 to 12 bucks an hour anyway......check your almanacs! If the US of Europe ever under cuts our exports......we're really screwed! That Jack Van Empty sure seems to know what he's yakking about. But seriously, the future could bring mishap financially to anyone..............have you invested your dollars wisely? And if it turns out that you did, are you ready to help out the other half you screwed to get there. We all suffer when the going gets bad so what does it really matter?
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
Speaking of Y2K, this past winter while working for the city I came across several kerosene heaters, still in their original boxes. Upon asking the 80 grand a year boss what these were used for. He replied that they were bought for the Y2K scare. I really had a good laugh that day!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
<< <i>I've never understood that argument. Do you have any idea how much energy it takes to make and especially distill ethanol? >>
Well, to be honest, I never thought about it on the national level. I'm one of those guys that tends to think in "grass roots" terms. All I know is that it is possible right now for Joe Average American to buy an inexpensive permit from the ATF and distill his own ethanol. Many vehicles made since 2000 can run on the stuff right now with no detrimental effects (I will admit that I have no understanding of the science behind this as I am neither a chemist nor a gearhead, but my brother - who's research I trust - has attempted to explain it to me repeatedly).
The wast products can be a bit of a concern. As I understand it, the Average Joe distilling in the garage will have a lot of nasty mash left over when all is said and done. I'm told that it is compostable.
In adition to fueling a vehicle, personally produced ethanol can be used to run generators to power your home. I realize that for many people (suburbanites and city dwellers mostly) this is not a comfortable option but out here in the boondocks where land is cheap and the neighbors are far away you can get away with it.
Hey Fletcher, how long do you think your solar panels will take to pay themselves off? Last time I looked at those they were still really expensive.
<< <i>I'm actually really concerned about Y3K. I know it's just under 1000 years from now, but we all remember the "big scare" with Y2K. >>
Actually, the next one, perhaps the really serious one, is in January 2038 -- 31 1/2 years from now, not 1000. Most computer native datetimes have been stored and used are in the form of signed 32 bit long integers, representing the number of seconds since midnight GMT of 1/1/1970. When that number reaches 2**31, it fails. This is in operating systems and C time keeping functions among others. When it crosses the datetime of 2**31, it goes negative and there are very unpredictable consequences, moreso and in far more software than y2k issues presented.
Comments
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
thru a confluence of natural mega disasters and man made
confligrations, that would destabilize the economic and civil structure
of this nation and much of the rest of the world. This would almost be
a situation best described, as the" end of times". If and when it should
occure, then I believe we will have greater problems then what happens
to our coin collections.
Camelot
30's to 50's are not as prized today since the owners are passing away, the car craze has shifted into the 60's, 70's and 80's and is red hot. Hemi Cuda convertibles for $2,000,000 and up! You bet.
You could have bought one brand new in 1971 for $5000.
roadrunner
<< <i>Markham; very provacative post. My guess, designed to illicit responses. You should consider a future in Tabloid Journalism. There you will get paid. Here you will get nothing but hundreds of responses pointing out the obvious. I am saddened that I played a part in your 15 minutes of fame.
I agree with you!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Gee, I wonder how my grandparents made it through the depression when it was "the end of the world?!"
If you think about it, every generation looks at the next younger generation (or two) and decides that it's all over. (e.g., "I'm glad I was born when I was" - "The whole country is going to He11 in a handbasket", etc., etc., etc.)
It's OK kids, relax and everthing will be okay....
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
<< <i>If you think about it, every generation looks at the next younger generation (or two) and decides that it's all over. (e.g., "I'm glad I was born when I was" - "The whole country is going to He11 in a handbasket", etc., etc., etc.) >>
"WILL YOU KIDS PLEASE TURN DOWN THAT JUNGLE MUSIC!" -- screamed by parents and grandparents since 1890.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Same old, same old...
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
energy costs may pale in significance to the changes caused by demographic
trends.
Even if the the energy situation did become severe it could be highly beneficial
to the hobby. The great depression marked one of the strongest growth peri-
ods for the hobby because large numbers of people weren't working and had
a lot of time on their hands. The same thing might happen if there is another
recesssion.
There is also the declining importance of cash (and coins) in everyday commerce.
This, too, could profoundly affect collecting but this may take a little more than
twenty years.
The one thing which seems safe to say is that the hobby will be very different
in twenty years.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>The situation mentioned in this thread would only be possible
thru a confluence of natural mega disasters and man made
confligrations, that would destabilize the economic and civil structure
of this nation and much of the rest of the world. This would almost be
a situation best described, as the" end of times". If and when it should
occure, then I believe we will have greater problems then what happens
to our coin collections. >>
Even then, I would still pay slightly more for a 1794 silver dollar than for an equal weight generic blob of silver...
>>>My Collection
Here is my question to you-If the economy collapses and the paper money becomes worthless-WHO is going to eat? The person with gold and silver bullion, or the person with worthless paper dollars? Gold and silver will always advance in time in this light. There will be ups and downs and high high peaks and low low lows, But with paper money there is an unlimited supply-it is called the national debt-every time there is an increase in the national debt there is more paper money in circulation. Politicians from both political parties can say what they want-the national debt will never be eliminated-it will always expand.
There is a limited supply of gold and silver on this earth. Just ask the people of Germany in 1919-21 what a wheelbarrow load of paper money bought. A lot of countries in Europe accept US dollars as they have no credible currency-even communist countries countries like China and Russia want US dollars-
I do not think that Gold will be $2000 an ounce in the near future, nor do i think that the paper money will be worthless soon, but if it comes to believing which is more stable i believe gold and silver trump everything else. Bob
<< <i> hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Here is my question to you-If the economy collapses and the paper money becomes worthless-WHO is going to eat? >>
No one would be eating after about 5-7 days. Soup kitchens, red cross packages, etc.
Wackos in their bunkers, with pre-positioned food stores and weapons, would probably
last the longest.
But the basic premise is seriously flawed to begin with - there are systems in place which prevent the
economy from collapsing. Naturally, sellers of bullion for "survival" purposes, do not include this
information in their advertising...
Before it happens in the US, you would see world-wide chaos - as much of the global economy
is based on US markets. I don't believe it will happen in our lifetime.
Every few years some bozo comes out with a book about the coming financial collapse and finds
thousands of sheep who buy it up, because they do not understand simple economics, and because
everyone wants to be "prepared" for some mystical disaster.
It is a bunch of balogna, IMHO.
John
SFC, US Army (Ret.) 1974-1994
<< <i>First of all, I am not a coin collector. I do, however, believe that I have a fairly good grasp of how the world works and what is coming soon. The hobby of coin collecting is solely a function of the excess wealth created in the United States as a result of cheap energy. Cheap energy is gone, and the world as we know it will soon follow. Hobbies, such as coin collecting, restoring old cars, etc., which have been accessible to the middle class for the last 60 years, will quickly fall by the wayside. The "value" which has been placed upon exotic items will disappear. The only items which will retain value are the same ones which have done so for all of human history. This are gold, silver, land and other commodities. The value of most other items will drop to almost nothing.
I hope that you realize that your collections could very soon drop to basically their bullion value.
Please feel free to flame me. I just had to speak out. >>
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/quarters/washington-quarters-major-sets/washington-quarters-date-set-circulation-strikes-1932-present/publishedset/209923
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/quarters/washington-quarters-major-sets/washington-quarters-date-set-circulation-strikes-1932-present/album/209923
<< <i>What makes you think we can't have cheap energy any more? Ever hear of ethanol? It's made out of corn. What country grows more corn than any other? Guess. >>
I've never understood that argument. Do you have any idea how much energy it takes to make and especially distill ethanol? They are trying to build an ethanol plant here, it's going to run on natural gas. It will also consume more than 300 million gallons of water a year to produce 100 million gallons of ethanol. They figure the ethanol finally produced will cost only a little more than gasoline. Of course since ethanol doesn't contain as much energy as gasoline you have to use about 25% more ethanol to do the same work. And then you still have a waste disposal problem of what to do with about 80 million gallons of glycerin produced. It does have industrial uses, but these ethanol plants are goin to be producing these hundreds of millions of gallons more than industry requires. Ethanol might make since in areas where it can be produced from sugar cane where it can be made from sugar where the production is MUCH simpler than from the starch in corn and without as much waste byproduct.
Oh and using the production capacity of the typical ethanol plant compared to this counties consumption of gasoline, we would have to build almost 4000 ethanol plants to replace the gasoline consumption.
i love America and i love the freedom our society allows me to enjoy which includes this hobby. what i hate is watching it be sold down the river while so many delude themselves that our way of life will never be challenged and, indeed, isn't currently being challenged. i work in heavy industry(polymer production) to the degree that the product i personally handle is used by virtually every American on a daily basis, yet i feel no job security in the long term. i've worked in heavy industry for my entire working life of over 30 years and it has slowly vanished like the mist while the cost of what i used to produce has risen and been made overseas.
as far as the energy issue goes, we've been wrangling with this beast since about 1973 and get all worked up about it until gas prices lower. with each round the prices go up a bit higher and then come down a bit less. if we, as a Nation, would get serious about alternative forms the problem could be solved. unfortunately, money talks.
<< <i>hey Mike, please stop being the voice of reason!!!! nobody ever wonders why Brazil already has a plant up and running and the technological world leader is still trying to figure it out and wind it's way through the red ticker tape. simple solutions are oftentimes complicated by the simple fact that the dollars need to get into the right pockets. i'm always amazed by the fact that so many think America can go on forever while we constantly lose ground to the rest of the world and are gradually becoming more and more of a service based economy. at the pace we're moving we need to keep the ol' war machine up and running, it's the heart and soul of American industry and technology. when we lose that, it's only a matter of time.
i love America and i love the freedom our society allows me to enjoy which includes this hobby. what i hate is watching it be sold down the river while so many delude themselves that our way of life will never be challenged and, indeed, isn't currently being challenged. i work in heavy industry(polymer production) to the degree that the product i personally handle is used by virtually every American on a daily basis, yet i feel no job security in the long term. i've worked in heavy industry for my entire working life of over 30 years and it has slowly vanished like the mist while the cost of what i used to produce has risen and been made overseas.
as far as the energy issue goes, we've been wrangling with this beast since about 1973 and get all worked up about it until gas prices lower. with each round the prices go up a bit higher and then come down a bit less. if we, as a Nation, would get serious about alternative forms the problem could be solved. unfortunately, money talks. >>
Well said.
Another interesting thing, for me, is the fact that gas prices in Europe (for example), are generally 100-200% more
than gas prices in the US. Why is that? More taxes, or what?
Here in Germany they are serious about their alternate-energy programs. You see these huge wind-plants almost everywhere
you go.
John
SFC, US Army (Ret.) 1974-1994
<< <i> If 90% of the collectors are trying to unload 5 years from now, what do you think will happen to prices? >>
Collectors do not unload........investors do. Collectors do what the name implies, they collect. Sometimes what they collect can cost a lot of money but they collect just for the love of collecting.
The name is LEE!
BTW, anyone who wants to dump, I'll pay 5x bullion for all your keys!!! Hurry, the sky is falling......
Will’sProoflikes
John, another example of red tape, this time political. maybe a better term would be red rope as in hands tied. all the bleeding heart groups are worried about migrating waterfowl and other wildlife whenever alternate forms come into question. silly really, when balanced against the amount of wildlife saved and even increased in numbers by an improved overall environment simply by the reduction in petro-use.
Will coin values suffer during this time frame? Probably, but I do not believe the picture is as grim as you paint it to be.
As much of a concern rising fuel cost are, I am equally if not more so concerned with the ever climbing abuse of credit cards and other paths so readily available to society that are allowing people to live outside their means.This seems to be growing and growing....
I will continue to collect coins thru thick and thin.......
<< <i> all the bleeding heart groups are worried about migrating waterfowl and other wildlife whenever alternate forms come into question. >>
I hear a lot from the anti-windmill people about how the wind generators would decimate migrating birds. I have to wonder just how true that is. I think they envision them as whirling like a planes propeller or the blades of a fan. Most of the ones I've seen running seem to be turning at about 2 to 4 revolutions per minute. Now most birds don't fly at night unless they have too. So that means they are migrating during the daytime when they can see these relatively slow moving blades. I don't see too many birds running into trees, high tension towers, each other etc, why can't they keep from being clobbered by these blades too?
What evidence is there that this is a problem? Are there piles of dead birds around the wind turbines that are up and running? I haven't seen any pictures, and you would think if they existed the anti-windmill people would be trotting them out all the time to prove their point.
By the way Keets, Brazil uses sugar for their ethanol production.
i knew that and it was the reason for my reply about making sense.
i liken your explanation of production costs to a comparison of some of the huge mass transit projects undertaken in various parts of the country in the 70's and 80's. the whole basis of the idea is to save energy, yet the cost of the projects in terms of "energy used" will almost never be recouped, and if it is, the timeframe is ridiculous. ideas that sound good aren't always good when implemented. living within a mile of the Perry Nuclear facility is a good example of this premise; it was originally designed as a Twin Tower facility but when costruction reached a mandated completion percentage on the second tower, it was cancelled and the cost passed along to taxpayers.
<< <i>I recently liquidated 50K in collectibale coins and I will use the proceeds to purchase bullion. I have concerns that the government's reckless fiscal policies will eventually impact the collectibles market. My biggest bet for now is with bullion. >>
Yup, the government's reckless fiscal policies made bullion a great bet in 1979 and 1980!!
I do strongly believe that we are approaching a perfect storm of energy and economic issues, and that the United States will be hurt worse than just about anyone. I don't expect a Mad Max future, but I do expect massive, painful changes in lifestyle and a much less pleasant life for most people. I hope that nobody here has sunk most of their finances into collectable coins, as they will probably take a significant loss in value. I do hope that people have invested in things that will (hopefully) maintain value over the next 20-30 years.
I do love coins and would love to collect silver dollars and gold coins. Right now, however, I am sticking with silver american eagles (not proofs), silver rounds and gold coins with no collectable premium.
If anybody wants to research energy issues, I recommend you head over to The Oil Drum, by far the most civilized, high level discussion forum you will find on this issue.
http://www.theoildrum.com/
<< <i>Well I definitely provoked a wide range of comments. I did make my first post both because I was interested in the level of knowledge and interest in Peak Oil, energy, and economic issues on this forum and because I was trying to make you think a little bit. I wasn't trying to bash anyones hobby.
I do strongly believe that we are approaching a perfect storm of energy and economic issues, and that the United States will be hurt worse than just about anyone. I don't expect a Mad Max future, but I do expect massive, painful changes in lifestyle and a much less pleasant life for most people. I hope that nobody here has sunk most of their finances into collectable coins, as they will probably take a significant loss in value. I do hope that people have invested in things that will (hopefully) maintain value over the next 20-30 years.
I do love coins and would love to collect silver dollars and gold coins. Right now, however, I am sticking with silver american eagles (not proofs), silver rounds and gold coins with no collectable premium.
http://www.theoildrum.com/ >>
Do you think you have stuck with those along time?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I recently liquidated 50K in collectibale coins and I will use the proceeds to purchase bullion. >>
-Sure you did
For the doomsdayish things being described, forget gold and silver and invest in a property that can be self-sufficient in food and energy needs, a few guns and lots of ammo. A few guard dogs might not hurt, either.
<< <i>First of all, what does cheap energy have to do with coin collecting????
And second, I want some of what your drinking!!!!!!!
Get a rope!!!!! >>
I got the rope! But seriously, who really knows what the future will bring. We're already getting robbed at the gas pump. And in turn, everything goes up to supply to your grocer. And 80% plus are only earning 6 to 12 bucks an hour anyway......check your almanacs! If the US of Europe ever under cuts our exports......we're really screwed!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>Well, when it crashes, maybe I can complete a few sets
I'd like to have a Gobrecht or two. Maybe a Stella while they're cheap.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>I've never understood that argument. Do you have any idea how much energy it takes to make and especially distill ethanol? >>
Well, to be honest, I never thought about it on the national level. I'm one of those guys that tends to think in "grass roots" terms. All I know is that it is possible right now for Joe Average American to buy an inexpensive permit from the ATF and distill his own ethanol. Many vehicles made since 2000 can run on the stuff right now with no detrimental effects (I will admit that I have no understanding of the science behind this as I am neither a chemist nor a gearhead, but my brother - who's research I trust - has attempted to explain it to me repeatedly).
The wast products can be a bit of a concern. As I understand it, the Average Joe distilling in the garage will have a lot of nasty mash left over when all is said and done. I'm told that it is compostable.
In adition to fueling a vehicle, personally produced ethanol can be used to run generators to power your home. I realize that for many people (suburbanites and city dwellers mostly) this is not a comfortable option but out here in the boondocks where land is cheap and the neighbors are far away you can get away with it.
Hey Fletcher, how long do you think your solar panels will take to pay themselves off? Last time I looked at those they were still really expensive.
but there is a market correction coming before the end of the year some more than others and some not at all some will continue to get stronger
hope you got out of the coins that will be really illiquid
<< <i>I'm actually really concerned about Y3K. I know it's just under 1000 years from now, but we all remember the "big scare" with Y2K.
Actually, the next one, perhaps the really serious one, is in January 2038 -- 31 1/2 years from now, not 1000. Most computer native datetimes have been stored and used are in the form of signed 32 bit long integers, representing the number of seconds since midnight GMT of 1/1/1970. When that number reaches 2**31, it fails. This is in operating systems and C time keeping functions among others. When it crosses the datetime of 2**31, it goes negative and there are very unpredictable consequences, moreso and in far more software than y2k issues presented.
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