Registry top 50 analysis #4

BigAl · July 6, 2006 2:05PM

Registry Analysis #1 - May 13, 2003
Registry Analysis #2 - July 6, 2004
Registry Analysis #3 July 6, 2005

The bold numbers are as follows:
Current Rank
Previous Rank
Rank Increase/Decrease
Current # Sets Registered
Previous # Sets Registered (7/6/05)
# Sets Increase/Decrease
% Increase/Decrease

1 1 0 Morgan Dollars Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921) 348 299 49 16%
2 2 0 Silver Eagles, Circulation Strikes (1986-present) 341 294 47 16%
3 3 0 Eisenhower Dollars, Proof (1971-1978) 338 280 58 21%
4 4 0 Sacagawea Dollars, Proof (2000-present) 294 247 47 19%
5 6 1 Silver Eagles, Proof (1986-present) 267 226 41 18%
6 5 -1 Washington Statehood Quarters, Proof (1999-Present) 266 238 28 12%
7 7 0 Susan B. Anthony Dollars, Proof (1979-1981, 1999) 259 220 39 18%
8 9 1 Franklin Half Dollars FBL, Circulation Strikes (1948-1963) 229 194 35 18%
9 8 -1 Kennedy Half Dollars, Proof (1964-Present) 225 201 24 12%
10 10 0 Eisenhower Dollars Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1971-1978) 205 187 18 10%
11 12 1 Sacagawea Dollars, Circulation Strikes (2000-present) 193 172 21 12%
12 11 -1 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1909-1958) 184 173 11 6%
13 13 0 Washington Statehood Quarters, Circulation Strikes (1999-Present) 184 164 20 12%
14 14 0 Washington Quarters Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1932-1964) 160 156 4 3%
15 15 0 Peace Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1921-1935) 160 136 24 18%
16 17 1 Susan B. Anthony Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1979-1981, 1999) 143 122 21 17%
17 18 1 Morgan Dollar Mintmark Type Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921) 135 116 19 16%
18 16 -2 Franklin Half Dollars Basic Set, Proof (1950-1963) 132 123 9 7%
19 26 7 Carson City Morgan Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1878-1893) 131 98 33 34%
20 33 13 Morgan Dollars Date Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921) 127 81 46 57%
21 22 1 Jefferson Nickels Basic Set, Proof (1965-Present) 126 104 22 21%
22 23 1 Roosevelt Dimes Basic Set, Proof (1965-Present) 125 103 22 21%
23 21 -2 Morgan Dollars with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921) 125 107 18 17%
24 27 3 Silver Commemoratives 50 Piece Type Set, Circulation Strikes (1892-1954) 117 97 20 21%
25 25 0 Washington Quarters, Proof (1965-1998) 116 102 14 14%
26 24 -2 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Proof (1959-Present) 113 108 5 5%
27 28 1 Eisenhower Dollars with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1971-1978) 110 94 16 17%
28 20 -8 Mercury Dimes FB Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1916-1945) 105 107 -2 -2%
29 32 3 Modern Commemorative Dollars, Proof (1983-present) 104 86 18 21%
30 24 -6 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1959-Present) 102 102 0 0%
31 30 -1 Walking Liberty Half Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1916-1947) 101 91 10 11%
32 29 -3 Modern Commemorative Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1983-present) 101 93 8 9%
33 34 1 Early S Mint Dollars Short Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1882) 99 81 18 22%
34 37 3 Modern Commemorative Half Dollars, Proof (1982-present) 99 78 21 27%
35 39 4 Walking Liberty Half Dollars Short Set, Circulation Strikes (1941-1947) 98 75 23 31%
36 31 -5 Gold Eagles $5, Circulation Strikes (1986-present) 94 88 6 7%
37 36 -1 Roosevelt Dimes FB, Circulation Strikes (1946-1964) 89 79 10 13%
38 35 -3 20th Century Type Set, Major Types, No Gold - Circulation Strikes (1900-1999) 86 79 7 9%
39 41 2 Roosevelt Dimes, Proof (1950-1964) 86 74 12 16%
40 46 6 Basic U.S. Coin Design Set, No Gold (1792-present) 84 68 16 24%
41 44 3 Buffalo Nickels Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1913-1938) 83 71 12 17%
42 45 3 Modern Commemorative Half Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1982-present) 82 71 11 15%
43 40 -3 Complete U.S. Type Set (1792-1964) 81 74 7 9%
44 42 -2 1964 Proof Set 81 73 8 11%
45 43 -2 20th Century Type Set, Major Types, No Gold (1900-1999) 77 72 5 7%
46 66 20 Franklin Half Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1948-1963) 77 54 23 43%
47 47 0 Platinum Eagles $10, Circulation Strikes (1997-present) 76 67 9 13%
48 48 0 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1909-1958) 74 66 8 12%
49 57 8 Modern Type Set, Proof (1950-present) 72 60 12 20%
50 69 19 Jefferson Nickels Basic War Set, Circulation Strikes (1942-1945) 72 51 21 41%

A few general comments:
1) The top 10 registries remained the same although there are some position changes.
2) For the first time since this analysis has been performed, a registry in the top 50 experienced a net loss - Mercury Dimes FB Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1916-1945).
3) The number of new sets in the Top 50 increased by 1705 sets from May 2003 to July 2004 (13.5 mos); 1094 sets from July 2004 to July 2005; and 974 from July 2005 to July 2006 indicating a slowing of the growth rate of newly registered sets in the Top 50.
4) The number of registries with at least 20 sets registered equaled 85 sets May 13, 2003; 158 sets July 6, 2004; 197 sets July 6, 2005; and 233 sets July 6, 2006.

Large % Gainers:
#1 Morgan Dollars Date Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921)
#2 Franklin Half Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1948-1963)
#3 Jefferson Nickels Basic War Set, Circulation Strikes (1942-1945)
#4 Walking Liberty Half Dollars Short Set, Circulation Strikes (1941-1947)

Chutes:
Washington Quarters, Proof (1936-1964) - Fell 13 places out of the Top 50 from #38 to #51
Roosevelt Dimes FB, Circulation Strikes (1965-Present) - Fell 12 places out of the Top 50 from #50 to #62
Mercury Dimes FB Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1916-1945) - 8 places from #20 to #28
Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1959-Present) - 6 places from #24 to #30

Ladders:
1. Franklin Half Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1948-1963) - Wow! up 20 spots from #46 to #66.
2. Jefferson Nickels Basic War Set, Circulation Strikes (1942-1945) - Another Wow! up 19 spots from #69 to #50.
3. Morgan Dollars Date Set, Circulation Strikes (1878-1921) - up 13 spots from #33 to #20.
4. Carson City Morgan Dollars, Circulation Strikes (1878-1893) - up 7 spots from #26 to #19.
5. Modern Type Set, Proof (1950-present) - up 8 spots from #57 to #49.

Notes:
1. Morgans are again the headliner this period; now w/ 5 registries in the Top 25 totaling 165 new sets this period.
2. Eisenhower Dollars, Proof (1971-1978) - Although still at #3, this registry experienced the largest # of new sets at 58. Ike proofs should take the #2 spot soon.
3. All nickel sets (Jeffs & Buffs) finished at a higher place this period.
4. Washingtons had a rough year w/ only one registry still in the Top 50; this registry only attracted 4 new sets this year, 3rd worst gain in the Top 50.
5. Lincoln's continue to slide for the 2nd consecutive period.

cupronik · July 8, 2006 4:55AM

What ?!

The Washington Quarter 1965-98 Circulation Strike Registry Set not even listed in the Top-50!!

No wonder top-pop specimens don't bring prices reflective of their scarcity.

Well now, perhaps all of you need to take a refresher course on history and become aware of
George Washington's integral role in the American Revolution, leading the Continental Army for
EIGHT YEARS!

Honest Abe seems to have no problem in acquiring and maintaining an enthusiastic crowd of registry
participants in ALL of his categories!

cladking · July 8, 2006 9:40AM

Thanks again.

ttt

leothelyon · July 8, 2006 11:31AM

43 39 -4 Jefferson Nickels Basic Set, Proof (1938-1964) 62 46 16 35%

Hi Big Al
Most interesting compilation you've listed. What happen to the above line in the new consensus?
You have the following listed in place of the Jeffs, I believe. Did they fall out of the top 50?

45 43 -2 20th Century Type Set, Major Types, No Gold (1900-1999) 77 72 5 7%

Leo

BigAl · July 8, 2006 4:13PM

43 39 -4 Jefferson Nickels Basic Set, Proof (1938-1964) 62 46 16 35%

Leo - the above line you quote is from the 7/2004 census. The history of this set is as follows:

5/13/2003: Rank 39, #Sets 46
7/06/2004: Rank 43, #Sets 62
7/06/2005: Rank 54, #Sets 61 (this fall from the Top 50 is note in the "Chutes" section of Analysis #3 in 2005)
7/06/2006: Rank 61, #Sets 62

BigAl · July 8, 2006 4:24PM

cupronik,

With the exception of: Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1909-1958); which remained at #48 for the year, all Lincolns registries have lost ground in the Top 50 this year.

Lincolns had a pretty bad showing in the 2004-2005 period also.

so much for honest Abe.

Steve · July 8, 2006 8:27PM

Al, GREAT analysis and great job.

How can the analysis fairly reflect the ADDITIONS to each series each year? The Lincoln's, for instance, have added the 1909 to current grouping to their 1909-1958 & 1959-current and some 1950-current sets. Unfortunately, the system does not AUTOMATICALLY add peoples coins to the sets when they qualify. As an example, I bet there are a number of new people who did not list to the 1909-1958 Lincoln cent basic circulation strike set, but chose instead to add their coins ONLY to the new 1909-current Lincoln cent basic circulation strike set. Steve

BigAl · July 9, 2006 3:17AM

Thanks Steve.

What you speak of is certainly relevant to other registries as well; for instance each Morgan Basic Set, Variety Set, Basic Prooflike Set, and Variety Prooflike Set would each have a CC Set, O Mint Set, S Mint Short Set, and Mintmark Set imbedded within it.

It's a fact that not all big set collectors also register a smaller related set; and going in reverse, the CC Set collector (or any other smaller related set owner) may not be interested in collecting the entire Morgan Basic Set or Variety Set.

You could certainly total the number of sets registered to all registries that are related to each other and calculate a Maximum possible number. In order to get a more specific number, you would need to go through each registered set, and deduct the related party set. This may prove difficult if the person did not elect to link other registries. At the end of the day I don't know what information this analysis will give you.

Perhaps a better method to evaluate overall popularity would be to calculate a Grand Total of all sets per each type of coin, this would be simple to do, however this my not be fair to the coin types that do not have many related party sets as their opportunity to add sets is limited.

The Top50 simply shows trends in the PCGS registry, wheter or not this correlates to what's currently hot in the Market is another story.

Here's the info on Lincolns (first # is the current set Rank and the second is the # Sets):

12 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1909-1958) 184
26 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Proof (1959-Present) 113
30 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1959-Present) 102
48 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1909-1958) 74
55 Lincoln Cents, Proof (1950-1958) 68
65 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Proof (1959-Present) 60
69 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Proof (1950-Present) 58
73 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1959-Present) 56
78 Lincoln Cents Date Set, Circulation Strikes (1909-Present) 54
81 Lincoln Cents, Proof (1936-1942) 52
106 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Circulation Strikes (1909-Present) 40
107 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Proof (1950-Present) 40
153 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Circulation Strikes (1909-Present) 32
159 Lincoln Cents, Matte Proof (1909-1916) 30
186 Lincoln Cents Basic Set, Proof (1909-Present) 26
219 Lincoln Cents with Varieties, Proof (1909-Present) 21
235 Lincoln Cents, Proof (1909-1958) 19
258 Lincoln Cents Complete Set (1909-present) 16

oreville · July 9, 2006 4:34AM

BigAl: this is an extremely informative thread you have kept up. This is developing to be a most valuable historical analysis of the waxing and waning of the popularity of the various sets collected in the hobby. Previously, we only were able to utilize the number of blue Whitman coin holder booklets sold yearly as a year to year guide, but that was more for circulated sets collected.

I would be nice to see you expand your top 50 analysis to that of the NGC registry sets as well to make it more "complete" and all inclusive for the hobby as a whole.

I salute you sir for your efforts!

Thanks!