Auction Estimates

coinkat

I asked this question or one similar on the US forum...

How accurate are Auction estimates?

CIVITAS

Kind of like asking, "How green are frogs?"

coinkat

Fair enough... not the best question... but then again a question that needs to be asked when one looks at estimates and hammer prices.

Ricke

<< <i>Kind of like asking, "How green are frogs?" >>



In my opinion, frogs are very green.

CIVITAS

<< <i>

<< <i>Kind of like asking, "How green are frogs?" >>



In my opinion, frogs are very green. >>



Even the orange ones?

Ricke

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Kind of like asking, "How green are frogs?" >>



In my opinion, frogs are very green. >>



Even the orange ones? >>



The orange ones not so much... those tend to be more orange.

CIVITAS

OK, in order to prevent COMPLETELY hijacking coinkat's thread. My thoughts:

As a general rule, I believe auction companies that deal mostly in middle to high quality (and priced) world, ancient and medieval material tend to estimate on the conservative side. They know the buyers will set the correct price no matter what they set as estimate. Often times the estimate is only a function of the reserve. (I.E. reserve is 60% of estimate and company wants at least $600.00 for the coin, Est. = $1000.00). This set up also allows people to be impressed by how many coins go above estimate. This fuels the market a bit and creates some buzz as well as good publicity for the company.

Edited to add: I've found that US coin auctioneers tend to shy away from estimates. I think this is due to a prevalnce of the Greysheet/Redbook mentality that is present in the US market. Since estimates are overall meaningless (save for reserve function) it's probably best to just leave any prices out. If an auctioneer estimates a coin at $1000.00, they may be reducing the chances of it going above $1000.00 moreso than if they just didn't provide an estimate. (Can't back this up with any data, it's just a gut feel.)

Silvereagle82

Josh,

You had mentioned that you had some coins cosigned (or so I assumed by your statement in a previous thread) in the Heritage Auction. Did you set the estimate or does Heritage?

CIVITAS

We set the reserves, they set the estimates.

Silvereagle82

<< <i>We set the reserves, they set the estimates. >>




In that order??

CIVITAS

Yep. Sometimes the estimate was the same as the reserve (another indicator that estimates are many times low). Other times the estimate was well ahead of the reserve (percentage wise) but usually below hammer price.

shirohniichan

Auction estimates are all over the place.

I mostly bid on Heritage world coin auctions and sometimes on Stacks auctions. Usually the estimates are really on the conservative side. I decide my bids on how much I'm willing to spend to get the coin or coins in question, and sometimes I'm bidding far above or below estimates. I bid 3 times the estimate on a US trade dollar and came up second highest bidder once, and at other times I've won with throw away bids.

My latest experience at Long Beach was one for three. The lot that I won had an estimate of $100 to $150 for six Bolivian coins, and my winning bid (including the juice) was $80.50. One of the others had an estimate of $150 to $175 and sold for $253.

Most of the Stacks and Heritage estimates on older Canadian and British commonwealth coins are extremely conservative.

wybrit

The estimates for Colin Cooke's collection were incredibly low (even though they were on the high side compared to Spink).