Buy, Sell, or Hold Thread
frankhardy
Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭✭✭
Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio gave me this idea. He had a topic where they discussed figuratively buying, selling, or holding atheletes like stock. Let's apply this to cards. Feel free to discuss my suggestions or bring up some more.
Ken Griffey, Jr - Buy. I don't remember his cards being any lower than they are now. If he could get healthy, he could go on a tear. He could still have 5 more good years left. And he is already at 539 homeruns. If not buy, at least hold on to what you have.
Barry Bonds - Sell. He will never break Hank Aaron's record. He is about to pass Ruth, and his cards might spike a little bit while he passes Ruth. But, since he will probably not beat 755, and with the allegations, his cards will drop like a rock.
Albert Pujols - Hold (possibly buy). This is a tough one. I told my wife for the last 5 years that I ought to buy hoards of his rookie cards. Back in 2003, his basic Topps Traded (which is really the only thing that I tracked because it was the cheapest) was going for around $8 to $10 raw. Now, they are going for $70. There is no question that we all should hold his rookie cards (especially autos). The question is - should we buy? I think the man just keeps on getting better. Since he is only now becoming a national star, I think that it is possible that his cards could go even higher. The problem is that his cards (especially auto'd RC's) are so high now, it might be a little bit of a risk. If the past is an indication though, I will probably regret (AGAIN) not buying hoards of his rookie cards. I did, however, last year, buy a 2001 Finest Auto RC PSA 9 for $200 (I actually don't have anything in it because I sold a bunch of cards to get it). Now, that card has MORE than doubled.
Michael Vick - Sell. The way he plays, he will probably get injured often.
Lebron James - Hold (possibly buy). See the Albert Pujols principle above. The only difference is that Lebron James has been a national phenom ever since day one. Pujols is just now getting there. His rookie auto's are so high, that it is hard to afford even one. Maybe it is time to buy some non auto PSA 10 rookies. He is only going to get better. The "experts" are already saying that he may end up being the best of all time. Hard to imagine him being better than Michael Jordan.
Kobe Bryant - Buy. His cards got hurt bad during the Colorado ordeal. Kobe is just now entering his prime. To think that he is getting better is just flat scarry. I think now would be a good time to buy. He has some really cheap PSA 10 rookie cards.
Roger Clemens - Sell. As great as he is and has been, I just don't see his cards going any higher. If he comes back this year and dominates like last year, they might spike a little, but I don't see it happening.
Alex Rodriguez - Hold. I am not sure their are very many bargains out there, but if you have any of his expensive rookies, you might hold on to them. He is fastly approaching 500 homeruns at the crazy early age of 31. He is as much of a lock as we have seen to breaking Hank Aaron's 755.
Those are some off of the top of my head. You may agree or disagree. That's fine. I thought it was fun putting the list together.
Feel free to discuss or come up with your own.
Ken Griffey, Jr - Buy. I don't remember his cards being any lower than they are now. If he could get healthy, he could go on a tear. He could still have 5 more good years left. And he is already at 539 homeruns. If not buy, at least hold on to what you have.
Barry Bonds - Sell. He will never break Hank Aaron's record. He is about to pass Ruth, and his cards might spike a little bit while he passes Ruth. But, since he will probably not beat 755, and with the allegations, his cards will drop like a rock.
Albert Pujols - Hold (possibly buy). This is a tough one. I told my wife for the last 5 years that I ought to buy hoards of his rookie cards. Back in 2003, his basic Topps Traded (which is really the only thing that I tracked because it was the cheapest) was going for around $8 to $10 raw. Now, they are going for $70. There is no question that we all should hold his rookie cards (especially autos). The question is - should we buy? I think the man just keeps on getting better. Since he is only now becoming a national star, I think that it is possible that his cards could go even higher. The problem is that his cards (especially auto'd RC's) are so high now, it might be a little bit of a risk. If the past is an indication though, I will probably regret (AGAIN) not buying hoards of his rookie cards. I did, however, last year, buy a 2001 Finest Auto RC PSA 9 for $200 (I actually don't have anything in it because I sold a bunch of cards to get it). Now, that card has MORE than doubled.
Michael Vick - Sell. The way he plays, he will probably get injured often.
Lebron James - Hold (possibly buy). See the Albert Pujols principle above. The only difference is that Lebron James has been a national phenom ever since day one. Pujols is just now getting there. His rookie auto's are so high, that it is hard to afford even one. Maybe it is time to buy some non auto PSA 10 rookies. He is only going to get better. The "experts" are already saying that he may end up being the best of all time. Hard to imagine him being better than Michael Jordan.
Kobe Bryant - Buy. His cards got hurt bad during the Colorado ordeal. Kobe is just now entering his prime. To think that he is getting better is just flat scarry. I think now would be a good time to buy. He has some really cheap PSA 10 rookie cards.
Roger Clemens - Sell. As great as he is and has been, I just don't see his cards going any higher. If he comes back this year and dominates like last year, they might spike a little, but I don't see it happening.
Alex Rodriguez - Hold. I am not sure their are very many bargains out there, but if you have any of his expensive rookies, you might hold on to them. He is fastly approaching 500 homeruns at the crazy early age of 31. He is as much of a lock as we have seen to breaking Hank Aaron's 755.
Those are some off of the top of my head. You may agree or disagree. That's fine. I thought it was fun putting the list together.
Feel free to discuss or come up with your own.
Shane
0
Comments
Interesting post; thanks. I agree with most, especially Pujols. I think his popularity suffered because his name is so hard to spell, but he's definitely a monster at a high point in his saleability with a lot of room to move.
I think I agree with Clemens as well. The value spike when he makes his homerun trot may be more wishful than anything else, figuring there will be a flood of cards on the market at the same time. Early sell is probably better.
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
Undervalued, and cheap pickups? Jim Thome... anybody else noticing that he's going to be a lock for the HOF? Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux. Hey, we don't have to like'em, but all of these guys are arguably first ballot HOF'ers, and cheeeeap pickups!
One more... Chris Sabo. SELL SELL SELL! ....to me
ALWAYS Looking for Chris Sabo cards!
Shane
Someone's buying, anyone else see this one
1992 Mcdonalds Griffey
If a McDonalds Griffey is would sell for that what would a 1 of 1 Ryan or Clemens go for? I wasn't gonna sell either (just got them this week), but I gotta wonder
This guy is Cooperstown worthy.
Piazza any interest from anyone?
Just sold a Bonds autographed ball for $150, could not ship it fast enough.
<< <i>"Ken Griffey, Jr - Buy. I don't remember his cards being any lower than they are now. If he could get healthy, he could go on a tear. He could still have 5 more good years left. And he is already at 539 homeruns. If not buy, at least hold on to what you have."
Someone's buying, anyone else see this one
1992 Mcdonalds Griffey
If a McDonalds Griffey is would sell for that what would a 1 of 1 Ryan or Clemens go for? I wasn't gonna sell either (just got them this week), but I gotta wonder
This could give you an idea on the Clemens
My Auctions
<< <i>Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio gave me this idea. He had a topic where they discussed figuratively buying, selling, or holding atheletes like stock. Let's apply this to cards. Feel free to discuss my suggestions or bring up some more.
Ken Griffey, Jr - Buy. I don't remember his cards being any lower than they are now. If he could get healthy, he could go on a tear. He could still have 5 more good years left. And he is already at 539 homeruns. If not buy, at least hold on to what you have.
Barry Bonds - Sell. He will never break Hank Aaron's record. He is about to pass Ruth, and his cards might spike a little bit while he passes Ruth. But, since he will probably not beat 755, and with the allegations, his cards will drop like a rock.
Albert Pujols - Hold (possibly buy). This is a tough one. I told my wife for the last 5 years that I ought to buy hoards of his rookie cards. Back in 2003, his basic Topps Traded (which is really the only thing that I tracked because it was the cheapest) was going for around $8 to $10 raw. Now, they are going for $70. There is no question that we all should hold his rookie cards (especially autos). The question is - should we buy? I think the man just keeps on getting better. Since he is only now becoming a national star, I think that it is possible that his cards could go even higher. The problem is that his cards (especially auto'd RC's) are so high now, it might be a little bit of a risk. If the past is an indication though, I will probably regret (AGAIN) not buying hoards of his rookie cards. I did, however, last year, buy a 2001 Finest Auto RC PSA 9 for $200 (I actually don't have anything in it because I sold a bunch of cards to get it). Now, that card has MORE than doubled.
Michael Vick - Sell. The way he plays, he will probably get injured often.
Lebron James - Hold (possibly buy). See the Albert Pujols principle above. The only difference is that Lebron James has been a national phenom ever since day one. Pujols is just now getting there. His rookie auto's are so high, that it is hard to afford even one. Maybe it is time to buy some non auto PSA 10 rookies. He is only going to get better. The "experts" are already saying that he may end up being the best of all time. Hard to imagine him being better than Michael Jordan.
Kobe Bryant - Buy. His cards got hurt bad during the Colorado ordeal. Kobe is just now entering his prime. To think that he is getting better is just flat scarry. I think now would be a good time to buy. He has some really cheap PSA 10 rookie cards.
Roger Clemens - Sell. As great as he is and has been, I just don't see his cards going any higher. If he comes back this year and dominates like last year, they might spike a little, but I don't see it happening.
Alex Rodriguez - Hold. I am not sure their are very many bargains out there, but if you have any of his expensive rookies, you might hold on to them. He is fastly approaching 500 homeruns at the crazy early age of 31. He is as much of a lock as we have seen to breaking Hank Aaron's 755.
Those are some off of the top of my head. You may agree or disagree. That's fine. I thought it was fun putting the list together.
Feel free to discuss or come up with your own. >>
Griffey Jr - Sell. I think everyone has already factored in the "if he could get healthy and go on a tear". In my opinion his cards won't see any appreciation until decades down the road. Not to mention they are everywhere.
Bonds - Buy. Yeah you can say he won't reach the record but if he does then you'd spend the rest of your life regretting your sale. If he breaks the record everyone and their grandma would come out of the wood work trying to buy his cards. Too much reward here to not take the risk.
Pujols - Sell. What goes up, must come down. If you're ever looking around and say, man I wish I would have bought that guy's rookie when they were worth 10 times less than what they are today, you need to sell. Pujols is amazing, but you can't keep up perfection. Injuries, slumps, etc... lots of things could knock him off his perch. When everyone else is hoarding, you should be selling.
Vick - Buy. Hmm, this guy used to have as much hype as Pujols. Now it seems he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Seems like it would be a good time to pick his cards up on the cheap. I like the reward versus the risk in this case. Similar situation to Bonds.
Not sure about Lebron and Kobe, I'll take your word.
Clemens - Hold. I think he'll be remembered as the great pitcher of this era and his cards will steadily increase after he retires.
Arod - Hold. I agree with you.
Andruw Jones
Garrett Anderson (if he gets and stays healthy, he will get 3000 hits)
Jeff Kent
Craig Biggio
Barry Larkin
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Tim Hudson
Roy Oswalt
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz
Andy Pettite
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
The Pujols Bowman Chrome Rookie fascinates me. A year ago it was $2300, give or take $200. I think they have been closing around $4000 now. I keep hoping that card will calm down so I can buy one...
Edit to add: I realize my list is all from the mass production era, but fact of the matter is these guys all have a good chance of finishing their careers with great numbers, as much as I doubt any of their cards will explode (like a Pujols), any time you can pick up a potential HOF rookie for a couple of bucks it is a really good thing...
Forget blocking him; find out where he lives and go punch him in the nuts. --WalterSobchak 9/12/12
Looking for Al Hrabosky and any OPC Dave Campbells (the ESPN guy)
<< <i>Alrighty... I'll throw a couple more out there...
Undervalued, and cheap pickups? Jim Thome... anybody else noticing that he's going to be a lock for the HOF? Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux. Hey, we don't have to like'em, but all of these guys are arguably first ballot HOF'ers, and cheeeeap pickups!
One more... Chris Sabo. SELL SELL SELL! ....to me
I agree with you on Thome, but what rookie card do you buy? Everything of his is mass produced. 1992 Bowman might be his best card and it is not his rookie.
<< <i>
<< <i>Alrighty... I'll throw a couple more out there...
Undervalued, and cheap pickups? Jim Thome... anybody else noticing that he's going to be a lock for the HOF? Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux. Hey, we don't have to like'em, but all of these guys are arguably first ballot HOF'ers, and cheeeeap pickups!
One more... Chris Sabo. SELL SELL SELL! ....to me
I agree with you on Thome, but what rookie card do you buy? Everything of his is mass produced. 1992 Bowman might be his best card and it is not his rookie. >>
I picked up his 91 Bowman a couple months ago in PSA 10 for $20. I think that and 1991 Upper Deck are his only two RC's.
<< <i>In baseball, looking at sheer underpriced cards compared to the stats the player(s) have put up, >>
Mass production and limited star quality limits the values of these players' rookie cards.
Andruw Jones. His cards have good value given that he finally had his breakthrough year last year...and he has had star quality written all over him since he broke out in 1999. Really the only player in this list that could see a substantial rise in his value.
Garrett Anderson (if he gets and stays healthy, he will get 3000 hits). Cards will never have much value. even in his best seasons, his cards could be had with mere pennies. he plays for the angels, which doesnt help his value.
Jeff Kent. Not very popular. His value could reach roberto alomar numbers....but, he's not as popular or media centered as alomar. He's probably the best offensive second baseman in the history of baseball...but, his personality, lack of popularity and mass production of rookie cards will keep his value at its current rate.
Craig Biggio. Solid player, but not good value in the world of modern baseball cards. Popular, but doesnt play in a big baseball market.
Barry Larkin. IF he gets into the hall of fame, his rookie cards may see a rise...but not by much. Popular player back in the early 90's, but his value has dissipated markedly because of all his injuries.
Barry Zito. Pitchers get no love in the modern card market, regardless of how good they are. They have to be flashy and create a lot of buzz (santana, willis).... or approach milestone numbers (clemens, unit, maddux)
Mark Mulder. Ditto
Tim Hudson. Ditto
Roy Oswalt. Ditto
Pedro Martinez. Good value...and if he gets better or maintains his current numbers with age, he might see the upward increase in price as the big unit did.
Tom Glavine. His value will see an increase if he gets 300 wins. but, with how saturated the rookie card market is in the 1980's, that value will be limited.
John Smoltz. Less value than glavine.
Andy Pettite. Even less value now that he's no longer a yankee. had minimal value when he was a yankee.
Mariano Rivera. He SHOULD be priced higher, but closers get even less love in the modern card market.
Trevor Hoffman. Ditto Rivera.
Basically, players with rookie cards in the late 80's and throughout the 90's will have bounds on their value merely because of mass production. Unless they do something incredible (see sosa, mcgwire, bonds), then their rookie cards will not reach substantial ROI in the current market.
deep thoughts w/ jack handy
Julen
TGIF
RIP GURU
Buy: Anything before 1980 in nice condition
Prices just can't increase on any item that returns pages and pages of listings on ebay.
I do think that pre 1980 stuff could be treated similar to stocks.
About the only modern stuff that would not result in pages and pages of ebay listings would be 1988 score baseball in GEM mint 10. Most of those cards were cut like garbage. a Gem mint 10 of that set definately wont show up often . But then again, does anyone even like that set? Probably not.
1977 Topps Star Wars - "Space Swashbucklers"
As my attitude has changed in this hobby like so many others my age (45)
Vintage( up to 1978)---BUY
Anything after---Fire Sale
<< <i>Sell: Anything after 1980
Buy: Anything before 1980 in nice condition
Prices just can't increase on any item that returns pages and pages of listings on ebay.
I do think that pre 1980 stuff could be treated similar to stocks.
About the only modern stuff that would not result in pages and pages of ebay listings would be 1988 score baseball in GEM mint 10. Most of those cards were cut like garbage. a Gem mint 10 of that set definately wont show up often . But then again, does anyone even like that set? Probably not. >>
Well then that brings into question what pre-1980 cards would be the best "stock"?
Bert Blyleven - Buy. He will get in the Hall of Fame eventually and his 71 Topps rookie is from a notoriously difficult set.
Rich Gossage - Buy. Then sell immediately after he gets into the Hall of Fame.
Elton Brand - Buy. If the Clippers win the title these cards will skyrocket - if they do not people are still going to be on the Clippers bandwagon for next year.
Steve Nash - Buy. His Topps Chrome rookies in PSA 9 sell for $30 and the last PSA 10 went for $80. This guy is a two time MVP and in most peoples top 10 point guard lists of all-time.
Lanny McDonald and Borje Salming rookies - sell - Pops are so low in these cards. They sell for multiples of SMR. These prices will level off once more get graded.
<< <i>Rich Gossage - Buy. Then sell immediately after he gets into the Hall of Fame. >>
Didn't this happen already??
Buy ... diamond cards, swift meats...especially HOF'ers
Groucho Marx
Buy:
1) 1974 OPC hockey in nmt-mt or better. This has to be one of the top three hardest mainstream sets of the 1970's (behind 1971 baseball and maybe something else), and sooner or later people are going to notice this. The centering on this set is terrible; some say it's slightly easier to to find centered '74's than '68's, but I disagree. These cards are tough, tough, tough, and it's only going to take another three or four active sets on the registry to really heat this set up. I haven't heard anything about Frisch having semi trucks full of these in his warehouse, so that's another variable you don't have to worry about.
2) Adam Dunn Bowman Chrome RC's. 40+ HR's the past two seasons and he has 14 right now. He could end up being another Rob Deer, but I still think his cards are probably undervalued. He only needs to make one serious run at 60 HR's at some point in his career for these cards to pay for themselves and then some.
3) Andruw Jones Bowman's Best RC's. We'll see, but I think he gets near 700 before all is said and done, and his best power years are coming up.
4) High grade NFL HOF's from the '50's. Still way, way undervalued. I saw a 1959 Bobby Lane PSA 9 NQ close about a month ago for just over 200$. No way those prices stay at that level over the next ten years.
5) Lebron RC's. If Lebron was a baseball player I'd say sell now. But elite basketball players don't seem to mix in as many below average seasons as elite MLB players over the course of their careers, and the NBA marketing machine is utterly without peer in North American professional sports when it comes to marketing individual players. Plus Nike is behind him, which can't hurt either. This is one of those funny situations where a player couldn't be any hotter than he is right now, but it's hard to see his cards ever coming down. Note: I'd wait for about two months until either after the season or after the Cavs are elimininated before buying these.
6) Mid grade pre-war baseball (and, of course, National Chicle). I keep waiting for the rat to get out on pre-war and have us all discover that virtually all the nmt-mt card were altered but somehow slipped through. Maybe I'm wrong, but it still worries me. But the mid grade stuff seems solid.
7) Elton Brand. How can you go wrong? He may go down as the best power forward of his generation.
8) Funky inserts s from 1995 to present with low print runs. I think at some point either PSA or BGS is going to make a real push to start generating interest in registered sets of today's biggest stars, and when they do these cards will be in greater demand.
Sell:
1) All high grade baseball from 1960 on up. There's still plenty more of this stuff floating around in the ether, and eventually it's going to find it's way to PSA/SGC/BGS. I don't see a scenerio where the demand curve shifts far enough to the right to compensate for the ever increasing supply. This is especially true for all 1970's stuff, since God knows what will happen to the pop reports once Frisch's stuff starts getting graded.
2) All 70's unopened. Again, the Frisch effect. You'd have to have your head in the sand to be holding on to 1972 football right now, for instance. Plus, as the high dollar slabs go down in value the packs should as well.
3) Carmelo Anthony. I just don't see it happening for this guy, especially with Kobe/Lebron/Wade in the league at the same time.
4) Pujols. Eventually he's going to pull a hammy or go into a prolonged slump, at which time you can buy whatever you sell now for less money.
5) All Gem Mint RC's from 1975 on up. How many more PSA 10 quality Clemens, Puckett and Maddux RC's are sitting out there in rack, vending, wax and cello cases? Thousands, maybe? And then add in whatever is still raw in private collections. Again, there's a finite number of people out there who want to spend 500$ on a Gem Mint Clemens RC.
Boopotts - Many people will argue that it is far easier to turn a G/VG card to EX than it is an EX card to NMMT.
<< <i>~"6) Mid grade pre-war baseball (and, of course, National Chicle). I keep waiting for the rat to get out on pre-war and have us all discover that virtually all the nmt-mt card were altered but somehow slipped through. Maybe I'm wrong, but it still worries me. But the mid grade stuff seems solid."~
Boopotts - Many people will argue that it is far easier to turn a G/VG card to EX than it is an EX card to NMMT. >>
This may very well be true. However, my suspicion is that enough mid grade cards are legit such that even if it was discovered that a fair number of these were altered the price wouldn't bottom out. But with the nmt-mt stuff and better I'm not so sure.
<< <i>
<< <i>Rich Gossage - Buy. Then sell immediately after he gets into the Hall of Fame. >>
Didn't this happen already?? >>
Hey brianwinters,
Unfortunately no. Bruce Sutter was voted into the Hall this year. No Goose yet. But he will get in one of these years.
I agree about the '95 Bowman's Best Andruw Jones being undervalued! The refractors are very tough in that set.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
BUY:
Football stars from the 60s and early 70s.
Football stars and commons from the 50s and earlier.
Baseball stars from the 50s and 60s.
Baseball stars and commons before 1961.
Speculate on Pete Rose, IF his 70s and 80s stuff tanks further.
(If you have 10 to 20 years to wait, he will likely be HOF.
If Bonds breaks the record, and he will IMO, they cannot
deny him his HOF. IF they let Bonds in, they must let Rose in.)
Also, non-sports from the early 60s and before should be
good 25-years from now. (Revivals of old TV shows and
remakes of old movies will make it so.)
Also, postcards from the early 60s and before are still cheap, but that will
change as more folks get the feel of the big PSA slabs.
SELL:
ALL Modern Stuff. (This does not mean you cannot buy
"hot stuff" and then turn it quick; it does mean that NONE
of it will turn out to be "a good longterm investment.")
Remember: 1960 was 46-years ago. It is only in that date
range and earlier that we are now seeing "the storehouse
of value effect." Each year, it becomes less likely that quantity finds
will glut the market.
If you are accumulating modern cards for kids and grand-kids, you
have to ask yourself: In the year 2052 - 46 years from now - what
will be more sought after; a 2006 chrome thingy, or a 1960 TOPPS
common that has been in a PSA holder for more than 50-years?
The answer seems obvious to me, based on history AND print runs.
Also, do not waste your money on non-PSA stuff. If you find nice
raw stuff, put it in the PSA holder. If a new grading leader emerges
in 10 or 20 years, you can always switch holders; in the meantime,
the card will be protected and liquid. PSA is the current "currency
of the realm." If you want the trend to be your friend, PSA is the
only "trend" there is "right now."
I think that is pretty much all I think I know about cards. But,
every bit of it could be wrong, wrong, wrong.
storm
<< <i>Wouldn't the 1986 Fleer Jordan be the basketball equivalent to the 1952 Topps Mantle? >>
I think that honor would probably belong to either the '61 Fleer Chamberlain or the '69 Topps Kareem (Lew Alcindor).
<< <i>My views all relate to PSA-graded material.
ALL Modern Stuff. (This does not mean you cannot buy
"hot stuff" and then turn it quick; it does mean that NONE
of it will turn out to be "a good longterm investment.")
storm >>
I don't agree with this. There are certain modern cards which don't have any obvious ceiling. If Pujols maintains his present trajectory-- and there's no reason as of now to think he won't go down as one of the top 5 hitters of all time, although obviously injuries, steroid revelations, etc. could change that-- his 2001 Bowman Chrome is going to be worth a mint. Ditto for the 2003 Exquisite Lebron. I agree that screwing around with $20 modern cards is probably a very bad idea, but once you get into some of the real high end stuff with limited print runs every indication is that these cards will be incredibly desirable 20 years from now.
Also, Pete Rose getting into the HOF will do very little for his cards. The people who set the market price for Rose cards already think of him as a HOFer, and the people who hate him aren't going to want to pay big premiums for his cards just because he slithered into Cooperstown.
Mark Mulder rookies
Chipper Jones rookies
Orlando Cabrera rookies
Lawrence Taylor
Sam Huff
Lavar Arrington
NY Giants
NY Yankees
NJ Nets
NJ Devils
1950s-1960s Topps NY Giants Team cards
Looking for Topps rookies as well.
References:
GregM13
VintageJeff
"There are certain modern cards which don't have any obvious ceiling."
That is likely correct. The ceiling is not totally "obvious."
When I call all modern "junk," it is a hasty generalization. It is more accurate/true to say,
"Most modern is junk, and will be forever."
But, the "limited edition/numbered/chrome/refractor" stuff will have to approach its "ceiling" through
being sought after by people who have lived through the current phase of cards/baseball, have grown up
and acquired cash, and want to reconnect with the feelings/emotions they had during their "baseball days"
and/or card awareness days.
Does that group of folks exist? Sure it does. Is that group large and growing? Not large, must grow.
The drive to own cards is not a tulip-bulb phenom or a gold-frenzy. I can turn almost anybody into a
"fad buyer" or a "commodity speculator" because they will listen to knew information that is
either true/false and they will believe it if it is spun as a likely profitable venture. The VAST majority
of cardboard buyers/investors had a childhood connection to the hobby and/or the related sport.
Absent that connection, I cannot easily steer them into "investing" in cards.
Stamp collecting, coin collecting, currency collecting can be sold to totally inexperienced "brand new investors."
Selling cards as an investment is MUCH harder, unless the potential "investor" has the childhood connection.
That connection is not nearly as widespread as it was in 1960. Thus, 30-years from now the 41-year old target
customer who recalls hearing about the "limited edition Pujols" as a kid, may want to buy one and he/she
may do so. For every one of those 2036 customers, there were likely hundreds/thousands of the same demographic
in 1990-2000 looking to own a Mantle or Williams card. That can only mean that "limited edition" or not, the demand
factors are probably just not going to be there to support the prices of what we are now calling "rare modern."
TOPPS knows this. That company is in the fight of its life and it has a 10-year war plan. Most dealers hate that plan
because it calls for a virtual TOTAL FOCUS on "attracting children to the card collecting hobby." Dealers want to sell
expensive cards to "adult investors;" those customers were kids in the 60s and 70s and 80s. Dealers do not care that
the supply of kids required to keep the card making/distributing industry alive 30-years from now is at an all time low.
TOPPS does care because its buisness model likely cannot survive another ten-years of the current "kid-drought." The
Pujols/Lebron cards can never be a longterm storehouse of value absent those ten-year old kids of today; those kids will have
to have been "touched" by cards today, if "rare modern" is to hold value for 20 or more years.
It is a tough/complex challenge. Dealers will go broke in 2007 trying to get money from kids. Card producers will go out of
business in 10-years, if MANY more kids do not start getting into the hobby in 2007. (WalMart will save us; maybe.)
Then, lastly, when the grownup kid does buy that Pujols card, the very next thing he is going to want is "some vintage stuff."
1976 is not vintage to us, and 2006 will not be "vintage" to that buyer in 2036. Trying to speculate about what "rare modern" cards are worth holding longterm is just TOO hard. We already know that the stuff we now call "vintage" has established some "floor-prices," and we can be a little confident that the "ceiling prices" 30-years from now are going to be HIGHER.
All roads lead to "vintage," and probably always will.
storm
<< <i>BOOPOTTS wrote:
"There are certain modern cards which don't have any obvious ceiling."
That is likely correct. The ceiling is not totally "obvious."
When I call all modern "junk," it is a hasty generalization. It is more accurate/true to say,
"Most modern is junk, and will be forever."
But, the "limited edition/numbered/chrome/refractor" stuff will have to approach its "ceiling" through
being sought after by people who have lived through the current phase of cards/baseball, have grown up
and acquired cash, and want to reconnect with the feelings/emotions they had during their "baseball days"
and/or card awareness days.
Does that group of folks exist? Sure it does. Is that group large and growing? Not large, must grow.
The drive to own cards is not a tulip-bulb phenom or a gold-frenzy. I can turn almost anybody into a
"fad buyer" or a "commodity speculator" because they will listen to knew information that is
either true/false and they will believe it if it is spun as a likely profitable venture. The VAST majority
of cardboard buyers/investors had a childhood connection to the hobby and/or the related sport.
Absent that connection, I cannot easily steer them into "investing" in cards.
Stamp collecting, coin collecting, currency collecting can be sold to totally inexperienced "brand new investors."
Selling cards as an investment is MUCH harder, unless the potential "investor" has the childhood connection.
That connection is not nearly as widespread as it was in 1960. Thus, 30-years from now the 41-year old target
customer who recalls hearing about the "limited edition Pujols" as a kid, may want to buy one and he/she
may do so. For every one of those 2036 customers, there were likely hundreds/thousands of the same demographic
in 1990-2000 looking to own a Mantle or Williams card. That can only mean that "limited edition" or not, the demand
factors are probably just not going to be there to support the prices of what we are now calling "rare modern."
TOPPS knows this. That company is in the fight of its life and it has a 10-year war plan. Most dealers hate that plan
because it calls for a virtual TOTAL FOCUS on "attracting children to the card collecting hobby." Dealers want to sell
expensive cards to "adult investors;" those customers were kids in the 60s and 70s and 80s. Dealers do not care that
the supply of kids required to keep the card making/distributing industry alive 30-years from now is at an all time low.
TOPPS does care because its buisness model likely cannot survive another ten-years of the current "kid-drought." The
Pujols/Lebron cards can never be a longterm storehouse of value absent those ten-year old kids of today; those kids will have
to have been "touched" by cards today, if "rare modern" is to hold value for 20 or more years.
It is a tough/complex challenge. Dealers will go broke in 2007 trying to get money from kids. Card producers will go out of
business in 10-years, if MANY more kids do not start getting into the hobby in 2007. (WalMart will save us; maybe.)
Then, lastly, when the grownup kid does buy that Pujols card, the very next thing he is going to want is "some vintage stuff."
1976 is not vintage to us, and 2006 will not be "vintage" to that buyer in 2036. Trying to speculate about what "rare modern" cards are worth holding longterm is just TOO hard. We already know that the stuff we now call "vintage" has established some "floor-prices," and we can be a little confident that the "ceiling prices" 30-years from now are going to be HIGHER.
All roads lead to "vintage," and probably always will.
storm >>
I think you're working from an assumption that we can't hold to be self evident; i.e., the assumption that because adults who are now active in the hobby were collectors as children that future adult collectors will, by some necessity, have also been childhood collectors as well. For years this has been the pattern, but who's to say it will hold up? Today's card collecting adults initially accessed the hobby in their childhood, and it's true that kids today don't collect as much as the kids of 20 years ago. But just because childhood collecting has historically been one's entry into the hobby doesn't mean that this will always be the case.
The sports card collecting hobby suffers right now from a severe identity crisis. It is still seen by most Americans as a 'kid's hobby', but as we all here know nothing could be farther from the truth. Which bring me to a second point: Why doesn't UD or Topps make a stronger effort to market to adults?? I think it will eventually dawn on the card manufactureres that getting kids involved in the hobby isn't nearly as important as convincing adults that sports card collecting is on par with fantasy leagues, etc., when it comes to socially acceptable ways that grown ups can participate in a sports-themed hobby. The entire economic structure of the hobby-- be it vintage or modern-- is reliant on adult participation. It would take millions and millions of kids, all blowing every dime of their allowance on sports cards, to compensate for the 25,000 or so adults who routinely spend 3K-5K a year on boxes and singles.
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