Who will be the Next Home Run King of Baseball?

etown99girl

Who do you think has a good chance of breaking Hank Aaron's record?

Or Barry Bond's record?

I believe it could be A-Rod if he stays healthy.

Thanks,

Mary

frankhardy

It won't be Bonds.

I say Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols.

etown99girl

How could I had missed this guy...

Albert Pujols!

I vote for Albert too.

onlyanumber

Consistency and longevity are key here. I can see A-Rod hitting 760-800 home runs, and when he is finished, Pujols breaking his record. 40 a year for 20 years. Now that is a feat!

Boopotts

I like both A-Rod and Andruw Jones' chances, although obviously A-Rod's I like better.

How old is Adam Dunn? He could do it if he's still young enough. And of course Albert has a good shot as well.

kcballboy

Adam Dunn doesn't have enough patience. He could get to 500 hacking away at every pitch, hitting .250 with 180k's a year, but I don't see him going much further past that. He just seems way too one dimentional, and I see him as a guy who can't play late into his 30's.

A-Rod is definately a legit threat. Andruw Jones is a good one as well, getting in the majors at 18 gives him a couple years head start over most players, and we saw last year what he is capable of power wise.

I love Pujols' chances. The thing to remember is that he is not even in his prime yet. It is scary to think of the numbers he could put up. We're getting a glimpse this year and I really think these next five years will be some of the greatest seasons ever put together by one player. He could very well be to 500 by the time he's 30. I've got my tickets for May 21 when he comes to KC. As much as I hate the Cards, I have to respect the man that played ball in KC and the Royals weren't interested in.

baseballfanatic

Adam Dunn falls into the Dave Kingman/Rob Deer catagory..........

BobaFett72

Pujols if he can stay healthy he is still getting better, just an amazing hitter.. and a real class act. Arod is going to have to switch positions eventually...

Skinpinch

Adam Dunn doesn't have enough patience?? What? If anything, his patience will actually hurt his raw stat totals, as he gets plenty of walks. These comments regarding strikeouts and batting average are usually ridiculous.

Fans say that players like Dunn are one dimensional, yet they fail to realize THAT HE GETS ON BASE MORE OFTEN THAN EVERYBODY'S PRECIOUS ICHIRO!!! Yes, the one dimension that Ichiro is any good at(that gets him tooo much credit than he deserves), THE SO CALLED ONE DIMENSIONAL ADAM DUNN DOES IT BETTER!

For their careers, Dunn has gotten on base .383 percent of the time he stepped to the plate...Ichiro .377 percent of the time.

As for the contact rates, go through the play by play and count how many times an out by Ichiro has moved a runner, and compare that to Dunn's total as that will give you an idea of the value of his contact.


There are actually two primary dimensions to batting...frequency of getting on base, and efficiency of bringing runners/hitter towards home. Dunn is actually well above average in BOTH dimensions. I hardly call that one dimentional.

The sub-dimension of making contact has tiny value.


To lump Dunn with Rob Deer is pure ignorance. To lump him with Kingman is ignorance.

kcballboy

<< <i>Adam Dunn doesn't have enough patience?? What? If anything, his patience will actually hurt his raw stat totals, as he gets plenty of walks. These comments regarding strikeouts and batting average are usually ridiculous.

Fans say that players like Dunn are one dimensional, yet they fail to realize THAT HE GETS ON BASE MORE OFTEN THAN EVERYBODY'S PRECIOUS ICHIRO!!! Yes, the one dimension that Ichiro is any good at(that gets him tooo much credit than he deserves), THE SO CALLED ONE DIMENSIONAL ADAM DUNN DOES IT BETTER!

For their careers, Dunn has gotten on base .383 percent of the time he stepped to the plate...Ichiro .377 percent of the time.

As for the contact rates, go through the play by play and count how many times an out by Ichiro has moved a runner, and compare that to Dunn's total as that will give you an idea of the value of his contact.


There are actually two primary dimensions to batting...frequency of getting on base, and efficiency of bringing runners/hitter towards home. Dunn is actually well above average in BOTH dimensions. I hardly call that one dimentional.

The sub-dimension of making contact has tiny value.


To lump Dunn with Rob Deer is pure ignorance. To lump him with Kingman is ignorance. >>



Adam Dunn's job isn't to get on base. His job as a number 3-6 hitter is to move guys over and drive in runs. OBP is a good stat, but it is relative to what the guys main purpose is. If Adam Dunn is hitting 6th, I could care less about his on base percentage as he will be followed by the 7 8 9 hitters in the line up. His job is to drive in runs and put the ball in play with runners in base. Striking out 180 times is not putting the ball in play and does the team no good. Great he takes walks, but those walks don't move a runner from second to home like a single to the outfield would.

Dunn having no patience may have been the wrong descriptor to use, as I do realize that he takes a lot of walks, but he's just not going to be the guy who goes out and sets home run records.

Skinpinch

An OB% from the six hole has about 10% less value than of the top of the order guy, true. Though a players job isn't to DRIVE runs in, but to create runs. Even though his OB% is about 10% less value to a team down there, it is still a strong value, no doubt. Simply check the play by play to confirm that.

As for Dunn in particular, he hasn't always batted sixth. Only a managerial moron would have him batting sixth, being that he is their best offensive player. He should be put into a slot to take advanatge of his skill set of HIGH OB% and HIGH SLG%(Top Four). Just because his organization is full of morons doesn't make him less of an offensive talent.

Striking out. Every 100 strikeouts(compared to contact outs) costs the teams about 2-3 runs, and that is the negative value of that. No it doesn't do a team good, but it doesn't do nearly the damage that most think.


P.S. Part of the walk value isn't only the obvious plus of adding baserunners, it also means avoiding an out AND pushing the lineup one spot closer to the best hitters.

An average BB has about 2/3 the value of a single. Don't forget that just over half of a players at bats occur with nobody on base where a walk and single are dead equal in value. Obviously it is different with men on, and that is where the value drops to 2/3. Again, simply check the hundreds of thousands examples to show.

baseballfanatic

Stats projected as an avg 162 game season:

Adam Dunn 39 HRs .248 BA 92 RBI 180 SO
Dave Kingman 37 HRs .236 BA 101 RBI 152 SO

Pretty good comparison to me.........

fab4

i think (hope) bonds breaks it,as his agent says he will play in 2007.

A-rod has averaged 35 home runs a year for the first 12 years of his career and would have to do the same for the next 10 years to break the record.

Albert had 200 going into this year and 556 is a big accomplishment. that is more than mantle hit in his whole career.

i don't see anyone besides bonds breaking it. if bonds doesn't do it i think aaron's record is safe for a long time.

yankeeno7

I think ARod has a VERY legitimate chance at breaking Aaron's HR record. If he would have stayed with Texas, I would have said it was a sure thing because Texas is a great place to hit a lot of HRs...Yankee Stadium isnt quite so right handed power hitter friendly.

But in the end, it will be Mr Pujols. There is no doubt in my mind that if he has a healthy career that he will be the first to hit 800 HRs, quite easily I might add. Before this season started, Pujols had 201 HRs in just 5 years and that was before his 26th birthday! At the rate Pujols is hitting the ball this year, season's end total could top 270 !

Pujols will be wearing that crown.

zef204

Miguel Cabrera just turned 23 and has almost 100 already. Plus this kid hits for average. A-Rod won't do it, Pujols may but if you want a dark horse I think Cabrera is it. Once he gets out of FLA and has some talent around him he will put monsterous numbers on the board..

BigRedMachine

<< <i>Stats projected as an avg 162 game season:

Adam Dunn 39 HRs .248 BA 92 RBI 180 SO
Dave Kingman 37 HRs .236 BA 101 RBI 152 SO

Pretty good comparison to me......... >>



Okay, have to stick up for the Reds players.

It's difficult to take an average over an entire career and compare it to a guy who is 26 years old. Let's leave a little room for improvement.

Dunn has had two seasons of 40 homeruns, 100 rbi's, and 100 runs scored before his 26 birthday.
Kingman never did it. He only had two 40 home runs seasons his entire career and never scored 100 runs.
So it really isn't a good comparison

As for Arod, yes, he has averaged about 35 homeruns a year for his first 12 years. But he's averaged 48 the last five years (See Adam Dunn above, guys tend to get better in their prime). So 8 more 40 homeruns years would get him there too.

I like his chances better than anyone elses.

Players are more defined by the last quarter of their careers than the first quarter. So although it's fun to speculate, I think it's way to early to predict 756 home runs for some of these guys like A. Jones, A. Dunn, V. Guerrero, A. Pujols (okay, this guy is different but still has 540 to go)

shawn

perkdog

I dont see anyone beating Aaron's record. With anybody mentioned in this thread so far their are a lot of "IF'S" and it is a long way off for anyone to challenge the HR record other than Bonds and I dont believe Bonds will do it whether he plays next season or not.

etown99girl

I dont see anyone beating Aaron's record. With anybody mentioned in this thread so far their are a lot of "IF'S" and it is a long way off for anyone to challenge the HR record other than Bonds and I dont believe Bonds will do it whether he plays next season or not.

Come on now. If Bonds plays next year he will break it. Not a Big Fan of the Bonds, but he will break it.

Skinpinch

Baseball fanatic, you forgot to measure their OB%.... and their SLUG%. That tells the more telling story

hardcorehockeyfan

I would hate to shed a bad light on this subject, but how does any of you know that Albert Pujols did not get any aid from the juice? If Bonds did it, and everyone else of the past 10 years is under that shadow, then Pujols definitely must be included also!!!!!

hardcorehockeyfan

I say that because, Pujols has hit a few bombs at or above the 450' mark, he reaches the so-called, juicers realm, where McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds hit them often. Nobody can sit there and tell me that Pujols just has more superior skills than either of the aforementioned players. And coming out of the Latin Americas, I am sure there are some shady things that go on in the development of many of these players also!!!!!!!!!!!!

Griffins

Projections don't work- different players break down at different ages. At various times I thought Willie Mays and Griffey would break the record, but didn't think Aaron would. And Bonds at 32 didn't look like he had a prayer, but at 37 it was a whole different story.
Who would I like to break the HR record? ARod and Pujols for sure, but I have doubts that ARod will make it.
Cary, do you really want Bonds to do it? You may be one of the few in the world that do!