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New Lotus PSA 10 Beta !

Hello,
There is a Lotus Beta PSA 10 for sell on ebay.
It s a new one... It mean someone took 1 or more PSA 9 Lotus beta and sent them until they got PSA 10 ...
This make PSA 10 worth less since i wonder how you can pay 3000-6000 USD extra for something that is in fact a PSA 9 and you are paying in fact for something got a default that the grading guys from PSA didn t see ... But they are not to blame since error is human ... The problem is the card that are sent many times ... Suppose there is 1/10 chance that they don t see a default on a card, if you send it 10 times it will get a PSA 10 almost sure ... Now PSA can tag the cards ... They could use this process to see if the card was already graded so they would investigate them more if it s a return card ... Because none of the cards that are submited again are PSA 10 at the first shoot .
You will tell me not all the Lous will get PSA 10 ... This is right but On the PSA 9 lotus beta i think 1/2-1/3 could be PSA 10 if you send it a lot of times .
Also the population on the PSA 8-9 beta alpha unlimited louts doesn t mean lot i think. Since lot poeple send the nice one again and again to PSA each time they are open to send back population report don t know the card don t exit anymore image

At this end maby a PSA 9 lotus will be almost as rare as a PSA 10.

I think the resumission factor should be include in the way you think the price of a card ... If there is 20 psa 9 of a card and 5 PSA 10. You can considere there could be 15 PSA 9 and 10 PSA 10 later ... The more the card worth the less you can trust the quality of the PSA 10.

Tromagic
Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.

Comments

  • Not sure what the story is on this card. By the certification number, I would say this card has been graded for quite some time as the 400 starting sequence is now up in the 415's. I have some "405's" that I graded about 2 years ago in my collection so I would assume this card has been around at least this long.

    Should PSA use their DNA technology to "tag" the cards to prevent cracking and resubbing? Integrity says yes but they would never do it as it takes cash out of their pockets as people play the resubmission lottery at $10 a pop or more. Lord knows the people of the US love to gamble and $10 is a pretty small investment when the possible return can literally be thousands of dollars. I am sure every one of us MTG collectors feels we have been given the grading shaft at least once on a submission and I am sure each of us has taken the time to resub a card we felt has been undergraded. I know I have done it as many as 5 times on a single piece (FYI, the pop for Beta Lotus is actually 4 lower than it actually shows) as I tried to bump a Lotus I opened from a booster pack war that received a 9 on the original submission. I knew the card was a 9 by the centering but the chance of getting a 10 as the card was perfect in every other way was too tempting. At $15 a pop, PSA netted an additional $60 and I still ended up with a 9. I have sent in just over 100 cards to be regraded over the years and have gotten the following results:

    8's upgraded to 10's = 3 times
    9's upgraded to 10's = 4 times
    8's upgraded to 9's = 4 times
    NO CHANGE IN GRADE = 91 times
    9's downgraded to 8's = 3 times (1 of these later was regraded a 10)

    And no, I have not sent in ANY 10's to be regraded! image

    This shows about a 90% regrade accuracy rate and I am more than comfortable with that. It's not impossible to think that 10% of your cards are on the edge of receiving a different grade as there are "high 9's" and "low 9's" for every card that received the grade of MINT. We are dealing with opinions of an unknown group of 3 people and they have daily factors that could influence a "nudge" one way or another on a borderline card.

    My 2 cents worth.

    BTW Bastien, what happened with that card you sent back to my guy at PSA? I have not heard from you since you sent it out.

    LMK,
  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    I think this is a another example of why you should "buy the card, not the holder".

    Obviously a great idea in theory, but the part of the reason for buying a graded card is that you are relying on a 3rd party to have verified the condition.

    We all know the quality of a "10" can vary, and so can the quality of non-10s. In each case resumbitting the cards may lead to a move in grade - but the issue is that its not a "stable" system as moving to a 10 is a one way ticket - no one resubmits 10s so the bottom end 10s never get dropped back into a 9, hence the population of 10s is probably slightly larger than it really should be. This isn't to say no 10s are worth the extra cash, just that you need to be careful when shelling out that kind of money and ask for plenty of scans.

    Having said that, the difference between grades 8-10 in Alpha in terms of eye appeal is pretty tiny as far as I can see. The cards that I have all look totally unplayed it is only the quality of the corners (i.e. the quality of the device used to cut the corners) as far as I can tell that differentiates them. Generally the backs are all perfect, it's just the fronts which are minorly different.

    The PSA 10 Beta Lotus on ebay at the moment doesn't look totally perfect to me - it could just be a poor scan though, but there are obvious white bits on the edges/corners. The PSA 10 Alphas that I have, have totally black borders with no signs of white which is what I expect from a PSA 10 Black bordered card.

    Personally, I would be all for PSA fingerprinting cards so that if they were resubmitted they didn't have the grade change, but I can't really see that happening.

    Finally, I think it's impossible to know how many Lotuses there are at any grade now there have been quite a few submitted - I'm not really sure I believe that 50 Alpha Lotuses have been kept in decent gradeable condition for over 10 years for example!
  • MadMartyMadMarty Posts: 16,697 ✭✭✭
    To think about all the Moxes and Black Lotus cards I traded away!
    It is not exactly cheating, I prefer to consider it creative problem solving!!!

  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    Back in the day, someone traded me a whole set of Mox for about 20 gold bordered legends cards. I didn't really understand why they did it at the time, but they had a "friend" advising them. I still don't understand why they thought having a load of gold bordered legends cards was better than a set of Mox. I guess at the time they were quite new and they had "super"-powers, despite the silly casting costs. image

    I sold all my cards (including 2 black lotuses, a set of Mox, 40 duals lands and some other nice cards) for the massive sum of about $1,100 when I quit magic in 1994. I remember thinking it was a good time to sell because M:TG had probably reached its peak. Oh well...
  • Yes Len i agree with you that if like 10 % of the PSA 8-9 upgrade to PSA 10 it s good ... The problem is if it 10% of the PSA 9 get 10. Then again 10 % of the remaining PSA 9 get 10 and so on ...
    It make this :
    100 cards PSA 8-9 : 10 % get PSA 10.
    90 cards left are PSA 9.
    You send them back :
    90 cards sent and 10 % get PSA 10 (9 cards PSA 10)
    81 cards PSA 9 left.
    You send them back:
    73 cards sent :
    66 cardd left PSA 9.

    And so on ... At the end you get like 50-60 cards that realy can t get 10 ...

    But you get arround 40-50 PSA 10 with lot PSA 10 that realy should not be 10 :-)

    That s why if they tag the card and know that it s a cards resent ... They know there is something wrong with the card ... They can put 10 if realy they find nothing wrong but it should be lot more rare than 10 %.

    I agree with you Len however for the money thing (PSA make money with the resubmission). However, poeple pay high price and buy PSA cards because they know the quality of the cards they recieve. If the quality of a PSA 10 was garanted perfect i think price would raise a lot on some cards. And more poeple would send cards to PSA.
    So one in an other i think they would get same or more money ... The problem to me is i would never pay something huge (like 1000-10 000 USD more) for something i will be desapointed once i get it ...
    If it was sure that the card PSA 10 i paid 1000-10000 USD extra is in the same condition as a PSA 10 that worth 10-50 USD then i would buy it.
    I saw this with unlimited most of my low value unlimited PSA 10 are very perfect ... the more the card worth and the more i get desapointed ...
    I had some hard time to find perfect P9.
    Bastien
    Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.
  • OsguardOsguard Posts: 79
    And two of them listed at the same time... How about that?
  • Me thinks that anyone that buys the new listing and sends off $3500 is gonna lose some money. I would not trust that seller if ANY OF YOU loaned me the money to buy the card he is offering.

    Amazing how someone who's nearly every Ebay deal has been for a $5 or less Yugioh card suddenly appears with an $8000-$10,000 card and then is offering to sell it for half it's market value. I have a pretty strong feeling that his scan was stolen from either a prior auction or from a reseller like Dave and Adam's that had 2 of these cards on their website in the past and sold them off, 1 to Steven and 1 to Thomas Keller. I did check the cert number and it is valid. I then tried to add the card to a Beta registered set to see if someone else had it registered and it also came back clean.

    I dunno, just too many things seem fishy about this card for me to bid, even though the price is a friggin steal of a deal. Better safe than sorry in my opinion.
  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    Well, he manged to sell it twice to the same person. image

    If it's registered then it should be possible to track down whose it actually is, there aren't actually that many on the registry. (I didn't have the patience to click through and work out who has one registered!)

    There are 5 PSA 10s now I notice. (And 35 PSA 9s :HMMMMMimage
  • Hi all,

    If both the listed psa 10 lotus' are real, then they have been graded after 10/05. I know this because in October of 2005 there were only 3 psa 10 beta black lotus. 1) mine which i bought from DA cardworld, 2) NicksMC's who traded his lotus to Beta Bob, 3) Thomas Keller's which I purchased for a discount from DaCardworld. Those were the three at that time.

    I have not received a reply from my inquiry with Thomas Keller about his. Since it was posted on DaCardworld, it's cert was open to anyone to see. I cannot confirm or deny whether the one listed 50033580 is the one I obtained for keller. However, I did find a psa 9 lotus from DaCardworld for with a cert 50045080. I bought alot from Dacardworld, and there cert numbers invariably start 5003 or 5004????

    Anyway, as we all know, finding a raw lotus that can actually grade a 10 (on the first attempt or the 10th attempt) is practically impossible. I too doubt that someone who was not involved with the psa magic community or a legitimate card shop would have one actually in their possession. I did email the seeler asking for a scan of the card with a date or some proof he had the card and have not received a response...Hmmmmm.

    By the way, do you think anyone can out bid Keller for the other one????
    image
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    As Steven says, I remember there only being 3 PSA 10 Beta Lotuses for a long time. However there are now 5, so another 2 are floating around.

    If you stick in the cert number into PSA's verification page and try some numbers around it, you can see else went to PSA in the same submission. It's mostly high grade Unlimited, Beta and Alpha Power 9 cards; so if this individual does own the card it seems unlikely that they actually graded it given their ebay history. I had a look in my registry sets and don't have any cards starting 5003, but I did have some 5004 and 5005, which suggests this card was graded a while ago.

    I can't think why Thomas wants two. That's just plain greedy. image

    You know the best (or worst thing depending on how you look at it)? "It is important to note that 'Tapping this artifact can be played as an interrupt.' ". Yes, clearly someone wanting to buy this item is going to be particularly interested in that fact! image

    Steven - how much did you get the 2nd one from Dacardworld for? I e-mailed them about it soon after you bought your original one and was told that they weren't going to drop the price below $10k and the only reason they let you win the first one for so much less was that you spent so much money with them. lol

    Michael
  • Len sez...

    "This shows about a 90% regrade accuracy rate and I am more than comfortable with that. It's not impossible to think that 10% of your cards are on the edge of receiving a different grade as there are "high 9's" and "low 9's" for every card that received the grade of MINT. We are dealing with opinions of an unknown group of 3 people and they have daily factors that could influence a "nudge" one way or another on a borderline card."



    Michael sez...

    "I think this is a another example of why you should "buy the card, not the holder".

    Obviously a great idea in theory, but the part of the reason for buying a graded card is that you are relying on a 3rd party to have verified the condition.

    We all know the quality of a "10" can vary, and so can the quality of non-10s. In each case resumbitting the cards may lead to a move in grade - but the issue is that its not a "stable" system as moving to a 10 is a one way ticket - no one resubmits 10s so the bottom end 10s never get dropped back into a 9, hence the population of 10s is probably slightly larger than it really should be. This isn't to say no 10s are worth the extra cash, just that you need to be careful when shelling out that kind of money and ask for plenty of scans. "

    Yep - I couldn't have said it better myself image

    BTW, I have many 9's that are drop dead gorgeous - excellent PSA 10 candidates. Will I resubmit them? Probably not - I'll just keep them in my collection and not bother to "upgrade" to a 10, via submission or purchase. If I ever decide to sell, well then... image

    Oh yeah, did you all see that Thunderkeller got beat - the Apocalypse can't be far behind!!!

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
  • Spot on Jared, buy the card, not the holder. I've turned down a couple 10's for my set because they just did not look good enough for me to pay the upcharge to move to a higher grade.
  • Michael,

    I won my psa 10 lotus on ebay for $6,000. That's right where this recent one sold. I picked up the extar one from dacardworld for Mr Keller for $9000. They weren't going to move much on the price, however, I got a 10% discount because th total order was over $16,000. Getting them to discount pricing is akin to getting your wisdom teeth pulled - quite painful.

    To answer your question on a previous thread about my experience grading my legends, here's what I did. I started with two complete sets and a 3rd set of commons. Both complete sets were pretty much pack 95+ % pack fresh. I picked them both up from CCCGhouse in Vancouver Washington. Since they were so nice, I paid a premium over the normal ebay selling price for a complete Legends set. I think over time, I've developed a pretty good eye at judging black bordered cards. Anyway, I went through each card and selected the very best one to submit. I also picked about 60 rares and uncommons that I sent a 2nd copy in also. I only graded a 2nd if I thought it was at least a 9 with a good chance of getting a 10. I sent in about 380 cards total.

    Anyway, my grades were pretty dissappointing. Although I did get alot of 10's the number of 8's an 9's were more than I expected. The break down was as follows:

    10's - 35%
    9's - 50%
    8's - 15%

    What really fustrated me was the number of 8's. While I expected some 8's because the card was not centered well or had some other defect, I didn't expect about 60 of them. Many were the 2nd copy submitted. I consciously sent in stuff that I thought was at least mint 9. Yet about 1/2 of the duplicates got grades of 8.

    Anyway, I think I the grader was pretty uptight. If these were all high end cards, then I might consider resubmitting some. However, when a $5.00 rare gets an 8, then it is in no way cost effective to regrade them. Also, getting a 8 on a Legends common is somewhat demoralizing. I popped for the grade to get one for my set, but there is no way I'll grade another.

    So that was my results in grading my Legends. All things being said and done, it was a costly experiment and I can't say that I know whether it was worth it or not. Time will tell though.
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    It's good to see the market price is pretty "stable" even after a year or so. Steven's PSA 10 Lotus was almost the first PSA card I ever bought. I got up at 3am to follow the end of the auction and put in a last minute bid, but then decided against at the last minute. I suspect I would have been a bit unpopular if I had bid and won - so a good job I didn't. image

    I'm assuming that the same graders look at the whole a submission; I'm inclined to think that if you send in a load of potential 10s together graders quality standards get a bit more blurred as they try to maintain consistency between the cards. I can quite easily see how if you send in a 9 with 100 10's that 9 might get dropped to an 8 in comparison. It's plausible, it seems a bit far-fetched, but its the only way I can explain it. (Unless the opposed happens when you look at a card yourself)

    "That's a 10, that's a 10 ... that's a 9... oh, that's a 9, but that one isn't quite as good ... it must be an 8" But if you sent in that "8" with a load of other 8's it might be a 9, or a 10. I'm speculating, but I suspect might be able to nudge the graders in a slightly different direction on marginal cards depending on what you send them in with.

    On the resubmission front on cheaper cards, I suspect you're better off resubmitting cards you've already concluded were 10s, but didn't get a 10, instead of just buying new cards... unless you can see why it wasn't a 10 in the first place!

    I'd be pretty happy with your set Steven, admittedly not quite the grades you were hoping for, but it's still an awesome set captured for all time, and you can always tinker with upgrades and pass on the 9's to the likes of us when we move on to Legends. image
  • Nice. Since DaCardworld had one for sale for 10K, I put a max bid on the one on ebay for $8500. I was very glad to see it sell at $6000. Tell me Michael, with your last minute bid, would you have won it? Or would I have paid a higher price? I'm curious. Eithewr way, thanks for not bidding.
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
  • My last minute bid was $7007.07 - then I figured I wouldn't win, so I didn't bid; I see I was right image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
  • tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    I suspect you would have just ended up paying a higher price - at that price level I probably would have edged up $200 at a time and run out of time to outbid you before the auction ended. :-)
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