Do the big submitters get better grades! Check this out!
glossycrazy
Posts: 677
Howdy!
There was a thread recently posted on big submitters like DSL, 4 sharp corners, etc. that discussed the grades they received compared to small time submitters like myself... I decided to keep my eyes on some of the sets I collect to see if anything unusual popped up and presto here it is:
4 Sharp Corners just listed 30 psa 10 1971 kelloggs baseball cards. Up this point there were only around 90 psa 10's out of 4,300 submissions in that set.... Hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4 Sharp Corners also listed 11 psa 10 1971 topps coins. Up to this point only 15 psa 10's out of 1600 submissions were in the population reports!!! Hum!!!!!!!!!!!
Just sharing some things I've noticed!
Paul
There was a thread recently posted on big submitters like DSL, 4 sharp corners, etc. that discussed the grades they received compared to small time submitters like myself... I decided to keep my eyes on some of the sets I collect to see if anything unusual popped up and presto here it is:
4 Sharp Corners just listed 30 psa 10 1971 kelloggs baseball cards. Up this point there were only around 90 psa 10's out of 4,300 submissions in that set.... Hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4 Sharp Corners also listed 11 psa 10 1971 topps coins. Up to this point only 15 psa 10's out of 1600 submissions were in the population reports!!! Hum!!!!!!!!!!!
Just sharing some things I've noticed!
Paul
0
Comments
Mike
I know where 4SC is getting this stuff....and it's a goldmine!! I tried to buy the same collection 2 years ago, but failed to capture the prize.
I believe it's the same person selling to him..if it is..LOOK OUT...that's just the tip of the iceberg!!
And yah, we all know they don't dribble cards into the market..
<< <i>Are you sure they didn't run into a really nice find of them? These things do happen. For example, the PSA9 & 10 populations for several early 70s issues changed pretty significantly as a result of the Wingard/Pekovich vending find. So while there is some evidence to support the theory that the largest submitters get better grades, you have to keep in mind that the larger dealers are generally in a position to find more better stuff too.
Mike >>
I wouldn't say there's any agreement between 4SC or anyone else and PSA, whereby increased business is exhanged for better grades. But I also think it's unlikely that some idiot like Roger would somehow have access to unlimited hordes of gorgeous, unaltered vintage cards while the rest of us may have never seen an unslabbed mint 1971 common in our entire lives.
<< <i>As much as I grimace about big time submitters and how they can kill pop reports...
I know where 4SC is getting this stuff....and it's a goldmine!! I tried to buy the same collection 2 years ago, but failed to capture the prize.
I believe it's the same person selling to him..if it is..LOOK OUT...that's just the tip of the iceberg!!
And yah, we all know they don't dribble cards into the market.. >>
Ah hah! If there is indeed a horde of this sort then I stand corrected, and apologize to 4SC for the insinuation.
Do the big submitters get favorable grades?................I end up buying a ton of cards from DSL and 4SC.........I still say NO.
1955 Bowman Raw complete with 90% Ex-NR or better
Now seeking 1949 Eureka Sportstamps...NM condition
Working on '78 Autographed set now 99.9% complete -
Working on '89 Topps autoed set now complete
Steve
Paul
<< <i>some idiot like Roger
Steve >>
What? I think he's a turd, and I don't care who knows it.
Paul,
I know what you mean about the red flags....but there are collections like that out there....
Not every dealer that finds a stash runs to SCD and brags and flaunts pictures of the next greatest find. There are too many delaers that are full of themselves and just want the glory..(insert pic of Al Rosen here)..
There are some nice hoards of stuff out there...
The collection that was talked about in this thread was amazing. IF indeed it's the same one...I had offered the seller $300,000 for it and didn't land it!!
Problem is...I would have gracefully sifted the cards into the market....and taken a few years to filter them in..
The bulk dealers don't know what that's about..and infuse everything at once...they will ruin the market for certain sets eventually and ruin the Registry...it's just a matter of time...
Yet...I purchased several cards this week from one of these dealers to fill my registered set...why not..when I can get them from them cheaper than I can submit cards myself....
As for the red flags and the percentages out there....the nice stuff does exist...I had a 250 card submission last year of 74 through 76 Topps Baseball, in which I received 83- 10's....those percentages are out of the norm...BUT the stuff was that nice!!! Heck 1/2 the 9's I got back could have just as easily gotten 10's as well...
<< <i>
<< <i>some idiot like Roger
Steve >>
What? I think he's a turd, and I don't care who knows it. >>
My Auctions
By the way, that 72 Topps PSA 8 is very, very questionable. I would never have even sent that one in.
Shane
<< <i>
The collection that was talked about in this thread was amazing. IF indeed it's the same one...I had offered the seller $300,000 for it and didn't land it!!
Problem is...I would have gracefully sifted the cards into the market....and taken a few years to filter them in..
The bulk dealers don't know what that's about..and infuse everything at once...they will ruin the market for certain sets eventually and ruin the Registry...it's just a matter of time...
>>
So your 'solution' is to keep populations artificially low and not grade cards? So bulk dealers are bad for putting stuff into the market? I just don't get it. Perhaps there will be a temporary blip if the markets are flooded with high grades. But, on the back end - then the dealer has nothing else to sell. I just don't get your point at how slowly eroding a market over time is necessarily better than dumping at once, especially if that is the dealer's perogative. If the Registry is ever 'ruined' as you say - it's simply because there is too much supply given the demand. And that may be a key reason why a lot of the 1970s sets have not appreciated over the past few years.
M
So if you're one of these guys and say have 250 mint issues of one card....why not grade 5-10 at a time..if you get back all 9's with a 10 here or there thrown in...it keeps the pop in check. you'll get more on the resale side of it. Then when you sell them off...grade 5-10 more....and so on and so on...every time you grade and raise the pop reports...the resale price tends to come down. so do it steadily over time....not over night...
These guys will take cards and send 50-100 of the same card at a time....if they get back alot of 10's....then wham...the 9's become worthless...the 10's are then the old 9 prices....and everything gets discounted overnight..
I made the mistake myself with 1974 Topps #541 Indians team....6 months this card had a PSA 10 pop of 1!! I submitted 10 cards and got back 4- 9's and 6- 10's.....that made the pop 7. Heck I was praying for only one or 2 10's.....I killed the resale of that card right there...
Today there are 59 Psa 9's and 14 10's....if you notice the big submitters have all had this card latley...
It is about supply and demand....you put out too much supply and demand goes down...so do prices...but there will always be hard cards to find..
Not grading cards to artificially" keep pops low....not really...but it doesn't mean you have to grade every card at once either!! Car manufacturers do this every year....release the hottest new car slowly in the beginning of the year and create a demand....over time, they release more.....if they made 10,000 cars and put them all on the market at once...there would be no hype...no " I HAVE TO HAVE IT" mentality..and although they would sell.....not as fast as they would without marketing.
It's an age old theme....I'd rather make slow nickels than fast dimes.....sooner or later the dime strategy wears out and then it's on to a new scheme....keep with the age old business strategy and it will not fail itself over time. You'll make more in the long run.
Silver Coins
e-bay ID: grilloj39
e-mail: grilloj39@gmail.com
<< <i>It's an age old theme....I'd rather make slow nickels than fast dimes.....sooner or later the dime strategy wears out and then it's on to a new scheme....keep with the age old business strategy and it will not fail itself over time. You'll make more in the long run. >>
Well I'm glad that that particular business strategy works well for you. I don't disagree that it *can* be a better business strategy, and it sometimes is. But at the end of the day, remember that Roger basically outbid you on this lot/collection of cards - and, if nothing else, it would be hard to argue that his business strategy has been anything but very successful - even if it is diametrically opposed to your m.o.
I bought several cards from him this week to fill my sets..
As for the collection...he didn't outbid me...he's getting it in dribs and drabs..as far as I can figure. IF again, it's the same lot...
But I also see the owner of the collection selling on Ebay also....so I think he's piecing it out...maybe a combination of the 2....
of course if every nice raw vintage card had been graded and no more were coming into the market the bidding world would be easy.
i truly admire larry mayer. he bids on a boatload of stuff, doesn't snipe and if he gets a good buy he gets it, if he loses 20 out of 20 bids, then tomorrow is another day.
5stat--if you are assumptions are correct can you give us a heads up on what years, sports and cards will get flooded?
thanks
Everyone just needs to do their own math with their own best interests in mind..
The signs and trends are there....you just have to look...
who is the purveyor of this collection to 4SC anyway?
Sometimes it is hard to follow these threads when so many different pronouns are used as opposed to the occasional proper name.
Thanks!
NINESnTENS
NINESnTENS: Specializing in Panini mint-gem mint quality sportscards/stickers. The largest Panini inventory anywhere. If we can't get it, it doesn't exist.
<< <i>
Sometimes it is hard to follow these threads when so many different pronouns are used as opposed to the occasional proper name.
Thanks! >>
Not being 100% sure it the same collection, I not going to out the seller..in hopes that someday "I" might still bag the big one!!
IF it is the same collection....I know that the seller wants to keep on the down low. Believe it or not..not every person with a warehouse full of material wants to have his pic taken and be in the lime light like Al Rosen. And NO...the collection isn't Rosen's....but it's in his league!!
I was joking around
<< <i>
<< <i>
The collection that was talked about in this thread was amazing. IF indeed it's the same one...I had offered the seller $300,000 for it and didn't land it!!
Problem is...I would have gracefully sifted the cards into the market....and taken a few years to filter them in..
The bulk dealers don't know what that's about..and infuse everything at once...they will ruin the market for certain sets eventually and ruin the Registry...it's just a matter of time...
>>
So your 'solution' is to keep populations artificially low and not grade cards? So bulk dealers are bad for putting stuff into the market? I just don't get it. Perhaps there will be a temporary blip if the markets are flooded with high grades. But, on the back end - then the dealer has nothing else to sell. I just don't get your point at how slowly eroding a market over time is necessarily better than dumping at once, especially if that is the dealer's perogative. If the Registry is ever 'ruined' as you say - it's simply because there is too much supply given the demand. And that may be a key reason why a lot of the 1970s sets have not appreciated over the past few years.
M >>
I think you're looking at this long term, and that may not be the way others see it. Let's say, for instance, that there are 'x' number of PSA 9 quality 1971 baseball commons floating around out in the ether. If the entire quantity is graded and put on the market now, the dollar value of these cards plunges and then slowly rebounds over the next 10 years. If they're trickled into the market then the market just slowly declines over the next 10 years (assuming a constant demand). If you're going to own a set until 2016 then it doesn't matter either way. If, however, you have a set that you're thinking of selling in the next 3-5 years then how these cards are introduced into the market has real implications for you.
The one compelling counterargument to this is that the market won't, in fact, rebound slowly over the next 10 years, but instead stay low. In which case the price for these cards in 2016 will be the same whether they're introduced slowly into the market or in one big batch. But I don't think this is the way it would work. The card would plunge, I think, because people would overestimate the number of new introductions and adjust their bids/ buy prices accordingly. Most people don't decide what they're willing to pay for a card based on the actual scarcity, but rather on the perceived scarcity. Look no further than the stupid prices being paid for 1975 PSA 8's three years ago, for example. The sportscard market is characterized by one large inefficiency, and that is that prices aren't set based on the actual supply but rather on the perceived supply.
Or, look at it this way. Let's say I came into a box full of PSA 8 quality T-3 (we're all allowed to dream, right?). Further, let's say I got them all graded right now, and the pop reports rose accordingly. Do you think I would do better to sell one of them every three months for the next 'x' number of months, or to dump them all in the next Maestro auction? My feeling is that I would do better to let them go in increments, since even if everyone who was looking to buy these cards had access to the pop reports, and knew how many were out there, they would 'feel' scarcer if I didn't unload them all at one time. It stands, then, that if dumping them would be worse for me, then it would also be worse for the people who currently own similar cards in like condition.
Mike
Any idea where the cases might have come from and did you see how beat up the 74 case seemed to be?
Any thoughts?
I noticed how beat up the 74 case looked, but it looks that much more beat up compared to the 75 case. In terms of handling over the years, the 75 case looks to be in really great shape.
I didn't realize the cases weren't Fritch's.
Mike