So, how much is Mastro's vending gonna go for?

gaspipe26 · April 2, 2006 7:30AM

Theres a few I wouldnt mind crackin open.

alnavman · April 2, 2006 7:48AM

I agree with you gaspipe....I've seen a lot of comments in other threads about how vending is not worthwhile but it sure has my interest........maybe they want to scare off some prospective bidders.

RobBobGolf · April 2, 2006 9:30AM

The opening bids are low, just depends on who wants them. I will be watching a lot of the Football lots.

Ripken · April 2, 2006 10:00AM

Those of you who inquired about Fritsch's "sale/no sale" of old unopened stuff a year or two ago now have your answer as to what they were doing.

shouldabeena10 · April 2, 2006 11:22AM

<< I will be watching a lot of the Football lots. >>

Hey Rob ... don't be drooling all over my new cards!

Tell you what ... How about we go in on a box or two, then meet up over at the Pasadena Rita's Ice and divide them all up? I'd invite Art too, but he'd just spill his drink all over the cards.

Mike

brianwintersfan · April 2, 2006 4:37PM

<< So, how much is Mastro's vending gonna go for? >>

Big $$$
I will be bidding but I won't be winning!

Wabittwax · April 2, 2006 10:11PM

I was curious as to what you guys were talking about so I took a look. Holy crap! 1960 Vending box? Wow. 1974 and 1975 CASE? Wow. These auctions houses really find the super great stuff. Seems like after enough of this though, you'd start blowing the pops through the roof. Honestly though that 1975 case isn't going to be that great. The winner will really be paying for the longshot chance of a $10,000 Brett. I've opened a 1975 vending box before and never again. Talk about pissing away $800. I got a whopping total of 2 PSA 9's about 30 PSA 8's and some 7's. I could have spent my $800 on better stuff.

flatfoot816 · April 3, 2006 1:49AM

I too wondered why Fritsch never responded to my request for prices on the stuff he had. Just testing the market of course. Think about it though...do you think that this little taste is all that he has? Not a chance. Rumors have been around for years that Fritsch was sitting on cases upon cases of unopened stuff from the late '60s to mid-70s. Having purchased vintage unopened for over 15 years now, prices may be way up due to the perceived scarcity of some of these items. Then a few years(or months) down the road, more and more makes it into the hobby--as with any supply and demand, prices will stabilize as more hits the market. Bid, but do not be foolish, since there is more to come(much more at some point) I am sure!

packCollector · April 3, 2006 2:13AM

flatfoot , exactly!! some of this stuff would be fun to buy and open but think about it , do yo uthink this is his only 75 vending case, 74 vending case? you will probably see a case an auction for the rest of your life. do you think the individual boxes were the only ones he had? if they are "case fresh" like mastro says then you will be seeing the rest of the case over the next couple years until he thinks the market is satuarated and he cuts them off for another 5 years until more can come out.

fsjeter · April 3, 2006 5:10AM

I would love to get my hands on that 1959 Topps Football Vending Box or maybe the 1977-76 Topps Basketball Vending Case! I see it didn't take the latter too long to blow up in price.

Scott

SDavid · April 3, 2006 5:38AM

you will probably see a case an auction for the rest of your life.

That wouldn't be very good news for the dsl's and 4sc's of the world. Granted, it affects collectors as well, but they're not relying on these markets for a source of full-time income.

gaspipe26 · April 3, 2006 5:44AM

Theres some but not that much.

fiveniner · April 3, 2006 8:10AM

<< I was curious as to what you guys were talking about so I took a look. Holy crap! 1960 Vending box? Wow. 1974 and 1975 CASE? Wow. These auctions houses really find the super great stuff. Seems like after enough of this though, you'd start blowing the pops through the roof. Honestly though that 1975 case isn't going to be that great. The winner will really be paying for the longshot chance of a $10,000 Brett. I've opened a 1975 vending box before and never again. Talk about pissing away $800. I got a whopping total of 2 PSA 9's about 30 PSA 8's and some 7's. I could have spent my $800 on better stuff. >>

I here Ya.Same thing happened to me only with Wax boxes.As I have said in the past,cards look nice however they are very often off center or miscut.

gemint · April 3, 2006 1:52PM

With many PSA 9 singles from the mid 70s not even fetching $10, I'd have a hard time making the "break" equation work. If you don't end up with a superstar PSA 10, chances are slim for break even.

RobBobGolf · April 3, 2006 9:42PM

Hey Shoulda, we can do that at my Rita's in Severna Park...we will be opening in July!

The prices shot up to almost out of reach immediatly, would love to have some of that tasty 70 FB stuff

flatfoot816 · April 3, 2006 10:36PM

What I would like to know is who is exactly bidding this stuff up to the stratospere already? Note that there are only a few bids on each item and already the number is way past what most can afford. Now let's think about this--who would have an interest in the prices getting up there so fast??????????????

Pittfan · April 4, 2006 12:35AM

Heck, for the price of the 75 vending case you could have a complete set in Mint 9 and be way ahead of the game.

RonBurgundy · April 4, 2006 1:11AM

"Heck, for the price of the 75 vending case you could have a complete set in Mint 9 and be way ahead of the game. "

Excellent point. This stuff is severely overpriced. The 60's stuff is ridiculous, and the 70's stuff is not far behind. The only thing bigger than the prices are the egos of the people bidding on it.

Stay classy,

Ron

bobsbbcards · April 4, 2006 1:25AM

Mastro seems to set their minimum bids at 1/10th of what a lot will eventually go for (as a general rule, at least on the good stuff). Here are the current multiples for the Mastro vending cases:

Item / Minimum bid / Current bid / Multiple

74 T BB / $1,000 / $11,959 / 12x
75 T BB / $2,500 / $24,655 / 10x
76 OPC BB / $500 / $4,506 / 9x
76 T BB / $500 / $6,599 / 13x
77/78 T BK / $500 / $4,957 / 10x
80 T BB / $300 / $484 / 1.6x (bargain)
73/74 T BK / $300 / $15,118 / 50x (not so much a bargain)
76/77 T BK / $300 / $ 9,385 / 31x (ibid)

mikeschmidt · April 4, 2006 1:27AM

<< 
Excellent point. This stuff is severely overpriced. The 60's stuff is ridiculous, and the 70's stuff is not far behind. The only thing bigger than the prices are the egos of the people bidding on it.

Ron >>

Ron:

Why overpriced? What is wrong with letting the auction market dictate price? There are two potential winners that I see:

A) The gambling type. Hoping for a PSA 10 of a star card. Fair enough. It's possible. Perhaps not likely, but we've all heard enough stories of it happening to agree it is possible.

The unopened connoisseurs. Some people pay premium for unopened, because that is what they collect. This stuff just isn't around - and it is a rare opportunity to have an unopened treasure. Certainly anyone who hoarded this stuff 5-10 years ago has made a great return. So you can even make an 'investment' argument, too.

~ms

BugOnTheRug · April 4, 2006 1:49AM

It's a major gamble based just on the fact that the cards will be typically O/C, miscut, have production defects such as fish-eyes, etc. However, what I find most critical in the purchase of this case is how it has been handled and stored over the past 30 years. I've busted much newer cases with minimal amounts of visible handling damage and have been surprised how much physical damage actually occurred to certain groups of card.

My point is you can have the most beautifully centered and colored PSA 10 quality 660 Aaron or Brett Rookie, but if you have a ding, curl, or other damage from the handling of the case, you've basically nullified any potential gain.

Obviously, this scenario is if you bust the case. At this point we don't know the intent of the bidders.

marz · April 4, 2006 2:34AM

no 75 topps minis?

ctsoxfan · April 5, 2006 3:26AM

I have always been disappointed with older vending boxes that I have opened (and spent a lot of money on). They usually yield tons of PSA 7-8 quality cards, which from most of this era, makes the cards worth less than it costs to grade them. Plus, a few of the vending boxes look like they have been well handled, which makes the odds of nice cards inside even less. I bet the buyers, if they actually open this stuff, will be surprised at what they actually get.

Onlypsahockey · April 5, 2006 8:13AM

I actually think this stuff is a gold mine.

Think of all the nice raw vintage cards you see at shows lately. Tons right? Wrong. Think of the record paces of all the large submitters sending in cards by the truckload. Where will the high grade cards come from in the very near future?

Anyone with the resources to buy up the older unopened product will be sitting pretty down the road.

JMO, Bob C.

ctsoxfan · April 5, 2006 1:35PM

Maybe Bob, but you are assuming that the cards in those vending boxes are in fact, high grade. If you have opened any vending, especially vending boxes that are a bit older, the quality of the cards inside is far from guaranteed.

softparade · April 5, 2006 3:04PM

<< 
Excellent point. This stuff is severely overpriced. The 60's stuff is ridiculous, and the 70's stuff is not far behind. The only thing bigger than the prices are the egos of the people bidding on it.

Ron >>

egos? nahhhh, thats BS. Those with the cash and the itch will bid away. And good for whom ever they might be

If I had the cash available to burn away without worry I would be right there in the mix not caring one bit about the guy who can't spend the money or what he thinks about it. The last thing I would worry about is what some envious guy thinks about the value of a 75 case after its cracked. I would think that more than likely the winner of a '75 case would either keep it for years down the road or crack that baby open knowing that no matter what is inside he could wipe his a$$ with the money spent anyway. What is wrong with that? I wish I was him

mcastaldi · April 5, 2006 9:38PM

Dan> In terms of break value I think I agree - the winner will probably just keep the stuff intact. I wonder how realistic it would be to expect to make money on them in a crack-and-submit scenario. Looking at the 75 case, it's over $24k with two weeks left. Doing some math -
- right now, the high bidder is paying over $2 per card for every single card in the case.
- if we assume that 20% of the case is submittable - and the non-submittable cards are worth nothing - then he's into the 2400 submittable cards at $10 a pop. Gotta get a lot of submittable high-value cards to overcome paying an average of $10 a card for what you submit. At least on 70s stuff.

The 3-box lot of 73s is even worse - they're up to almost $1400 per box. That means you can take the above and figure $3 per card for every card in the group. At 20% submittable, that's 300 cards. Using the same assumptions as above, that's over $13 per submittable card.

And those actually look decent. Is it just me or does the 74T case look a little weathered?

Mike

Ripken · April 5, 2006 11:44PM

That's what I don't understand. I totally get the unopened pack collector. They display well and you can buy any one pack for fairly manageable prices..it's just a collecting niche. If you want to open it, you're not out thousands of dollars if it turns out to be junky.

But for old unopened vending boxes/cases...I don't get it. They're not really pretty to look at. Mastro's prices are way beyond sanity. It doesn't pay to open them (unless you have terrific luck). I assume they're being purchased as an investment since prices continue to go up for that kind of stuff. Why I have no idea. There's no basis or logic to it. And if I'm filthy rich, there has to be something more sensible to take a gamble on..or satisfy one's unopened jones.

mcastaldi · April 5, 2006 11:56PM

Ripken> I think we'll have to wait out the 2 weeks remaining and see just how insane the prices get. Perhaps for the 50s and 60s stuff the prices make more sense - since the high-value cards are much higher-value than for 70s stuff.

If I had to guess, Fritsch is using this to set the market. I would have to imagine he has a significantly reduced commission arrangement with Mastro. I think we all agree it's pretty safe to assume that Fritsch has more where these came from. The ongoing question will be if he continues to sell these types of vintage unopened products, does he continue to use Mastro? Or does he use Mastro to help him set the market and then take the sales in-house?

Mike

Ripken · April 6, 2006 1:05AM

Mike,

Right on both counts. It sounds like it's a semi-permanent arrangement, but Larry's no dummy. If he can save the commission after 1-2 years, I'm sure that's what he'll do. Wish I had the kind of money it's going to take to land some of the old stuff, but I just can't fathom why some of it will undoubtedly sell for an end that doesn't justify the means. But..maybe I'll be surprised. I just hope those boxes were never dropped at any time.

gemint · April 6, 2006 1:09AM

I don't think vending is the pending disaster many are claiming it to be. Sure there are the horror stories but there are also goldmines out there. I recall someone breaking a '69 series one vending box and pulling a PSA 10 Aaron and Clemente out of the same box. I do agree that mid-70s vending would be tough to hit break even due to the depressed nature of the graded market for those years. If you get a few PSA 10 superstars though, that will go a long way in covering the cost of the vending boxes.

gaspipe26 · April 6, 2006 1:45AM

At the prices they are at now, you wont break even, or even close to even.

mcastaldi · April 6, 2006 3:06AM

I think to expand on what Bob said, at the prices they're at now, think about how many 9s and 10s you need to pull in order to break even. Then balance that on how likely you are to pull that many. I estimated a rate of 20% submittable cards - though I feel that's extremely optimistic. For vending, I'd guess reality is probably closer to 10%. The market certainly comes into play for the 70s stuff. I remember the good old days when 72T PSA8s sold for $15-$20 and PSA9s were $50+.

If the buyer of these intends to break them and submit, then they'd have to be smart about it. If they crack the 75 case for example and submit 2000-3000 cards all in one shot, they're going to blow up the population and depress prices even further.

Mike

Fuzz · April 6, 2006 5:46AM

To sucsessfully play the break up game, it is certainly all about price, price, price.
The basic analysis here looks pretty spot on from guys that I know that have experience in these matters.
I also agree buying vintage is the way to go. The 70's cases are far from rare amd the "non-winners" are a killer. Raw cards that are not submittable will have value, but not a lot. In some year 8's are a money losing prop and not a lot of profit in some 9's. That lack of margin for error is fatal for me in those deals.
I bought a 64 BB hi number vendor a few years ago from Lelands. Didn't really want it and didn't real collect the 64's but I put in low bid at about $16/card (approximate raw NM value) and won. The break was not pretty but was good enough to not get killed. About 90 cards submitted with about half 8's and half 9's and two 10's. The stars were all oc so it was all commons. Still have 400 nice cards (just not 8's or better) and a few cards towards a set should I get around to it. All in all it was fun but if I was in at $12K, I don't think it would have been so enjoyable.
Fuzz

So, how much is Mastro's vending gonna go for?

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