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Will high gold/silver prices cause investors to flood the coin market soon?

fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
in U.S. Coin Forum
I am talking about people who no nothing about coins and don't care to learn about coins. They just throw money at coins as an investment. That will cause the coin market to go crazy and could eventually cause the coin market crash.

Comments

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,291 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes!!! It happened before and its happening now.


    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • AgMeAgMe Posts: 881
    Maybe in a week or so, I'll sell the silver hoard and exit the market for a while... the "permanent collection" will be retained.

    ~g image
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  • GeomanGeoman Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭
    Sure, why not take a nice profit. Personally, I am not an investor. But I have sold all my silver as the price went above $10/ounce. Here is an example, I was buying average circulated silver coins, mainly VG common-date Walkers and Washingtons. I was buying the VG Walkers for $3 each a few years ago, and selling them in 2x2's for $3.50 each, for a small profit. Now, I can take those pages of Walkers into my local coin dealer, and sell them for $4 each or more. Last year, I was hoping to get $3.50 for a collector. Now, I can get $4 from a dealer for bullion content. I'll take it. I assume investors will also be taking profits also.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,404 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was in my local shop recently when such a person come in and wanted to spend $200,000 in cash on US gold coins. He knew nothing about coins. The dealer informed him about the reporting requirements (very firmly, I might add) and no transaction took place.

    This is the kind of buyer who may eventually end up purchasing coins from a fly-by-night seller.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • northcoinnorthcoin Posts: 4,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK, what are the "reporting requirements?"
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    Its something new the government has places on all dealers from my understanding. I heard about it from a buddy of mine.
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    Do you think one should hold out on purchasing gold for the crash, or continue to pick at it as it rises?? Im trying to get gold for the long haul... but if it never crashes, then its stupid to wait.
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭
    Yes, it's beginning to happen now. Just today I had a couple of slight aquiantances call me up after getting my number from a closer friend in the middle.

    In fact, I'm going to be going on a another gold hunt, even though I told them that silver was for longer term investment. They didn't want to know about it, all they knew was GOLD. They had both called local dealers and didn't like the mark up, but the fact is that most Brick and Mortars don't just keep a few hundred Eagles in stock and their cost is higher when they have to order them.

    I told them that I had bought a large batch for myself last week on the dip, but even still I recommend silver. One of these guys could buy and sell me times 100, so.....OK, it's his money.

    The fact is, there aren't any reporting requirements on GAEs and both were already aware of that. They weren' t interested in anything else and one didn't even want to consider fractionals.

    Only foreign gold has such reporting strings attached.

    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>Do you think one should hold out on purchasing gold for the crash, or continue to pick at it as it rises?? Im trying to get gold for the long haul... but if it never crashes, then its stupid to wait. >>



    Crash?

    I expect a dip around April 10 give or take 5 days. No crash. The rocket sled has only started. The afterburners are still several months to a year and a half away.

    If I said gold at 5K an ounce in 5 years you'd laugh me off the forum. So I didn't say that.

    OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised one bit. The rules have changed.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    So hold off for it to drop to around $500--$550, then buy it up, and wait for all hell to break lose??
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    And for the record, im not looking for a quick turnaround... however something to sit on for a rainy day sometime when I have nothing better to do 20 years from now or so.
  • LakesammmanLakesammman Posts: 17,402 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Americans love to get something for nothing - expect 200 million folks to jump in!
    "My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>So hold off for it to drop to around $500--$550, then buy it up, and wait for all hell to break lose?? >>



    I don't think you'll see $500 again. I said I expect a dip, not a 15+% drop.

    Yeah, I've been waiting and planning for all Hell to break loose, as you put it, since 2001.

    I saw this as getting really crazy by the third quarter of '07 based on my best guess back around 5 years ago.

    The world has changed a lot since then. We aren't far from all bets being off.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭


    << <i>Do you think one should hold out on purchasing gold for the crash, or continue to pick at it as it rises?? Im trying to get gold for the long haul... but if it never crashes, then its stupid to wait. >>



    If you are asking (and you just did) I suggest that you average in with small purchases over the course of a year or more, unless the transaction costs become prohibitive. Tops are created by a maximum number of buyers and few sellers, and bottoms the opposite, so many "plungers" attempting to time the markets will buy tops and sell bottoms.

    As for reporting requirments, there is IRS Form 8300 for cash transactions above $10,000. I think there is more scrutiny on money laundering under some Patriot Act provisions.

    I don't think silver or gold have gotten high enough to attract that many average people. The profits are not large enough yet to get people excited. When every coin show report includes something about long lines to get in, and people scooping up large quantities of bullion related items and paying with credit cards, the "dumb" money will be in, and a long term top will be in place. That said, all the metals have had a nice run and a short-term correction would be normal and healthy.
    Investment blog: gold, stocks and more
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    Makes sense. I figure Ill slowly pick at what I have been paying the last week or so. I just picked up another 1/10 for $62 tonight (about an hour ago actually). 3 days ago I picked up a 1/4 for $150 shipped. I figure I can still find these deals for another couple days.
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>Americans love to get something for nothing - expect 200 million folks to jump in! >>



    Absolutely correct, and I'll be happy to broker for as many of them as possible. Trouble is, there aren't 200 million with the $$ to jump in.

    But yes, there are plenty and money that might be going into Blue Chips is going to be going into Gold.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>Makes sense. I figure Ill slowly pick at what I have been paying the last week or so. I just picked up another 1/10 for $62 tonight (about an hour ago actually). 3 days ago I picked up a 1/4 for $150 shipped. I figure I can still find these deals for another couple days. >>



    If you pick your spots you can do that for quite a while yet.

    I picked off a half ounce proof GAE and almost 10% under melt just a couple of weeks ago. I don't usually have the time for those little bits but I do think you can find those deals for some time yet.

    I will say this, I've flipped over 200 ounces in the last 2 weeks, that's close to the last couple years combined for me, though I do focus on silver for the most part, so I may not be a good barometer.

    I still think silver is the better investment percentage-wise.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    I have close to an ounce of gold... and probably $100 in face of silver. Im a small time guy... lol. If I could flip the stuff, I would, but I am unsure where to look for the steals (pawn shops, ect)... that way I can flip them.
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>I have close to an ounce of gold... and probably $100 in face of silver. Im a small time guy... lol. If I could flip the stuff, I would, but I am unsure where to look for the steals (pawn shops, ect)... that way I can flip them. >>



    Uh, send me a PM if you would like a quick education on how I started out doing this and a few tips on where to look and where to sell. Other guys did it for me, so I sort of feel obligated. I'm a big believer in Karma.

    BTW, I think I'm just a small time guy as well.

    Just remember, my advice is worth exactly what you paid for it. image

    Hint* -- it ain't pawn shops, at least not as a general rule.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • 30AnvZ2830AnvZ28 Posts: 1,619
    pm sent

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