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Is Ichiro a legit HOF candidate?

ndleondleo Posts: 4,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
At 32, he has 1130 hits and a .332 career average. I'm guessing he will finish with around 2300 hits. Will that be enough to get in? Or will he be stuck in the Mark Grace/Bill Madlock/Will Clark no man's land?

I think he will get in. Any shortfall in numbers will closed with consideration of his Japan stats.
Mike

Comments

  • 5STAT5STAT Posts: 835
    In my opinion, it doesn't matter what he did in Japan...

    It's the HOF in the godd O'le USA....and NO..his numbers aren't goos enough...

    He's a great hitter..don't get me wrong...but without the huge HR numbers....and flash on the field...no way!!

    There are alot better players out there deserving more that have put their time in...

    JMO
  • jad22jad22 Posts: 535 ✭✭
    I think it is hard to compare him to those players. He has only played 5 full seasons so it is impossible to tell right now if he will be a hall of famer. I would argue that it will be hard for him to continue at his pace as he gets older due to the fact that many of his hits are infield singles which will diminish in number as he gets older.
  • onlyanumberonlyanumber Posts: 2,433
    If he makes it 10-12 years in MLB, he should make the Hall. All Star in his first five MLB seasons, an MVP, ROY, and 2 time batting champ to boot. He's also led the league in singles 5 straight years including 225 alone in 2004. Add in that single season hits record which lasted 84 years and he's put up remarkable numbers. His MLB career may have started late, but from the looks of things it will be a great one.

    A good example of a HOFer to compare him to would be Kirby Puckett--Puckett only played 12 seasons and his career was cut short, but he had a string of 10 HOF seasons there.
    Next MONTH? So he's saying that if he wins, the best-case scenario is that he'll be paying for it two weeks after the auction ends?

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  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Regarding his fielding, Ichiro has 5 Gold Gloves in 5 years.
    Mike
  • LWMMLWMM Posts: 471 ✭


    << <i>In my opinion, it doesn't matter what he did in Japan...

    It's the HOF in the godd O'le USA....and NO..his numbers aren't goos enough...

    He's a great hitter..don't get me wrong...but without the huge HR numbers....and flash on the field...no way!!

    There are alot better players out there deserving more that have put their time in...

    JMO >>



    Doesn't he have 5 straight gold gloves?
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  • BigRedMachineBigRedMachine Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭
    I think I would agree that if Ichiro could put up another five 200 hit seasons it will be hard to keep him out of the hall.

    And because of his popularity, he'll have to do really poorly to not make the All star team each year.

    And Ichiro has a cannon for an arm and has multiple gold gloves to prove it.

    So if you finish with a .330 career batting average, have 10 all star appearance, multiple gold gloves, 2300+ hits, a rookie of the year, an MVP, a multiple batting champ, break an 84 year old record then you'll probably get in. All this is said that he has 200+ hits another 5 times, of course.

    An added factor is he may be widely remembered as one of the first true Japanese superstars and making the sport more popular world wide. I'm not necessarily saying he's an ambassador to the game, but other contributions are often looked at as well.

    We'll see.

    shawn
  • BigRedMachineBigRedMachine Posts: 2,563 ✭✭✭
    I'd also add that I don't think Ichiro compares to Will Clark and Mark Grace at all. They may all end up in the 2400 hit range but consider this.

    Neither Clark nor Grace ever had a 200 season, which is surprising to me.
    Clark was a 6 time all star, Grace a 3 time all star. Ichiro will ultimately have more.
    Clark and Grace have 5 gold gloves combined, a number Ichiro matches already.
    Clark and Grace have 0 MVP's combined, as a matter of fact, Grace never finished in the top 10 in voting.
    They have a combined 0 batting titles.

    Hall of Fame arguments can include being the best at a position in your time, and although Clark and Grace had solid careers, neither dominated the game as the above stats prove. At least not dominated in a way Ichiro has in his first five seasons.

    shawn
  • julen23julen23 Posts: 4,558 ✭✭
    ichiro will make HOF, due to pressure from sadahar oh and bob horner.

    Julen
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  • shagrotn77shagrotn77 Posts: 5,616 ✭✭✭✭
    If he continues at this rate, he'll not only get in, he'll be a first-ballot guy. A .330 lifetime batting average, a ROY Award, an MVP and the record for most hits in a season qualifies for first-ballot consideration. No, he won't reach 3,000 hits, but he won't have to. Lots of first-tier HOF'ers didn't get there.
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  • AllenAllen Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭
    It is the baseball hall of fame not the MLB/ USA hall of fame. Many voters talked about Warren Moons CFL acomplishments when voting him in so I see no reason they would not do the same for Ichiro.
  • MiniMasterMiniMaster Posts: 505 ✭✭
    If he can hold out as long as other all time hit leaders did he just may reach 3,000 hits despite his late start. He has a good work ethic and appears to have the physically/mentally capabilities to go the distance. If the numbers keep coming in over the next 7-10 years he'll be a first ballot HOF'er and he will be recognized as one of the greatest hitters of all time!



  • MiniMasterMiniMaster Posts: 505 ✭✭
    should read "Physical/Mental" ......my bad sentence......didn't proof read.....lol
  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with Big Red - 5 more years like his first 5 will make him a lock. His game is well suited to age gracefully, unlike power hitters. He will only be 37 in his 10th year.

    Mike
  • SDSportsFanSDSportsFan Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It is the baseball hall of fame not the MLB/ USA hall of fame. Many voters talked about Warren Moons CFL acomplishments when voting him in so I see no reason they would not do the same for Ichiro. >>





    Actually, the official names are the "National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum" and the "Pro Football Hall of Fame".

    So, if you're going by name only....

    The BB HOF deals with baseball in the United States, and the FB HOF deals with all "Pro FB"

    If the voters are going to consider Ichiro's Japanese stats, then why isn't Sadaharu Oh already in the Hall of Fame, and what about Julio Franco when he retires from MLB?


    Steve
  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,150 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Five more years like his first five and it won't matter what he did in Japan.
    Mike
  • fiveninerfiveniner Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭
    If he continues his pace for 5 yrs more he will be a lock.All around player.
    Tony(AN ANGEL WATCHES OVER ME)
  • DaBigHurtDaBigHurt Posts: 1,066 ✭✭
    If he has five more years like his last five, we'd all be wondering if Roses' hit record would be safe if Ichiro played his entire career in MLB.
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  • gonzergonzer Posts: 3,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gail Sayers played how many years of football? Seven? A great 5 year span can do wonders for HOF voting. Ichiro belongs.
  • SDSportsFanSDSportsFan Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Gail Sayers played how many years of football? Seven? A great 5 year span can do wonders for HOF voting. Ichiro belongs. >>





    The only problem with that in baseball is that the HOF rules require a player to have played at least 10 years to be eligible. The Football HOF has no longevity requirement.

    Oh, and I also agree that if Ichiro keeps going as he has, and plays at least 10 years, he should be in the HOF.

    Steve
  • helionauthelionaut Posts: 1,555 ✭✭


    << <i>In my opinion, it doesn't matter what he did in Japan...
    It's the HOF in the godd O'le USA....and NO..his numbers aren't goos enough...
    He's a great hitter..don't get me wrong...but without the huge HR numbers....and flash on the field...no way!!
    There are alot better players out there deserving more that have put their time in...
    JMO >>



    I find it amusing that a guy with Roberto Clemente for an avatar would have an opinion like this. If anything, Ichiro compares very favorably with Clemente in most respects, and exceeds him in many, playing the same position.

    Of course, anything can happen in 5 years, but if the first 5 are any indication, he's going to walk into the Hall easily on the first ballot. He's just a supreme talent, and in the next five year's we'll probably see a major swing in the power numbers as the various rules changes take effect and the style of ball changes back to where it was 15 years ago.
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  • JackWESQJackWESQ Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭
    Not that these number truly mean anything, but Baseball Reference has the following
    HOF numbers for Ichiro.

    Black Ink: Batting - 20 (103) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
    Gray Ink: Batting - 65 (367) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
    HOF Standards: Batting - 25.0 (453) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
    HOF Monitor: Batting - 128.5 (101) (Likely HOFer > 100)

    Curiously enough, Ichiro has already exceeded the HOF Monitor of 100 for a "Likely HOFer"
    after playing only five seasons.

    For those interested, here is a link to the all-time and active leaders.

    HOF Monitor Link

    My stance? Ichiro gets in on the first ballot given five more similar/same seasons.

    /s/ JackWESQ
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  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    It is the baseball hall of fame not the MLB/ USA hall of fame.


    On second thought...........it is the "National baseball hall of fame"

    thus his stats from japan would not count. If japanese stats counted Sadarha Oh would be in the Hall. JMO

    As for Ichiro..............he certaintly is on a pace for induction.

    time will tell.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • SkinpinchSkinpinch Posts: 1,531
    He is a candidate. His true value is pumped up a little because of his uniqueness, and he is well liked. Total hits are such a poor measure of value....batting average ain't far behind.

    I like looking through sets about 'forgotten' guys. I came across this guy in a media guide I was reading the other day, and 'remembered'

    Through his first 3,432 At bats(when becoming a full timer), this fella had 1,064 hits

    Ichiroo has 3401 at bats and has 1,130 hits, a smidge better.


    This other guy had 339 stolen bases and ONLY 54 caught stealing!
    Ichiro has........only 190 stolen bases and has...56 caught stealing! Significantly worse than the other guy.

    My question is, should this guy have been touted as a Hall of Famer, as a speedy centerfielder? Those are the pitfalls of just looking at total hits.

    With todays watered down pitching, getting 210 odd hits, in 675 odd at bats, with low total bases is not Hall of Famer, yet that is two, or three of Ichiro's five years in baseball. He needs about five more years closer to 2004 to be 'worthy' of the hall. A few more seasons like last years(barely above mediocre offensively), just dont' cut it.

    Because Ichiro gets a million at bats a year, he is going to rack up the hit totals(while probably leading the league in outs made too), so in the eyes of the writers and most fans, his hit totals will get him a lot of interest......AND

    He still wont' be as good as Tim Raines, who didn't get the total amount of hits people 'feel' is Hall worthy, yet he is much better than players with more hits, and better than Ichiro.

    And no, Tim Raines is NOT the guy in the example.




    P.S. This other guy had 67 triples in that time span, and that should give a clue as to his identity, as most saw him play.
  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    Ichiro will be the first recognized foreign player - ala the Negro leagues- in the Hall of Fame. This will open the door to Oh and many other players of Japanese Leagues.

    Wondo

  • DirtyHarryDirtyHarry Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭
    Maybe........the guy is good. No? He is a Pete Rose imitator without the gambling.

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  • baseballfanaticbaseballfanatic Posts: 2,415 ✭✭
    Those stolen base numbers that skinpinch refers to look like Vince Coleman numbers.......
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    or..................willie wilson?


    I disagree though with the statement that 210 hits per year does not make a HOF'r.

    Anyone that could average that would be a lock.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • SkinpinchSkinpinch Posts: 1,531
    Those numbers are Willie Wilson's, good call!

    Steve, based on what is usally voted in the Hall, Ichiro's hits will get him in(assuming he doesn't flop), and Ichiro is excellent. I always like to add the guys that should be in there who are actually a bit better, ala Tim Raines, the true misjustices.


    P.S. With the way things are going in baseball marketing etc..., by the time ichiro retires, his Japan numbers will account for something in the minds of the people. Heck, even if his Japan hits are counted as pennies on the dollar, it should help down the line.
  • beefcake210beefcake210 Posts: 116


    << <i>It is the baseball hall of fame not the MLB/ USA hall of fame.


    On second thought...........it is the "National baseball hall of fame"

    thus his stats from japan would not count. If japanese stats counted Sadarha Oh would be in the Hall. JMO

    >>



    One HUGE difference. Ichiro has and continues to test his best against MLB pitching. We don't have any baseline to know if Oh's 800+ HR would translate to 600, 400, or 200 against MLB.

    If Ichrio ends up averaging 200 hits over 11-12 seasons, it will be an easy justification. Especially adding his defense. If he only ends up at 180 hits/year, and a .350 OBP - maybe his career track will be closer to a Buckner. I think giving him 100 hits per year for his seven Japanese years is a pretty good starting point for comparison purposes.
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Skip

    One day Raines will be in the HOF.

    Willie Wilson was a favorite of mine back in the day. he was a ballplayers ballplayer.


    AS for the japanese stats, while they won't count for OH they may well be what pushes Ichiro over the hump.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • SkinpinchSkinpinch Posts: 1,531
    Beef and Steve, hit the difference between Ichiro and Oh. Knowing how well Ichiro has done in MLB, it would be silly to think he wouldn't have done well if he came to MLB five years earlier. Sure, he would probably follow the learning curve as everyone else, but they would have been pretty good seasons. Beef's 100 hits per seven Japanes years would be on the very lowest end of the 'hypothesis' of what he would have gotten if he played MLB those years.

    Steve, I have doubts on Raines making it. Who knows till the vote happens, but when you listen to the opinions of the voters etc...he doesn't get the support he should be. It will be interesting to see.
  • DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭
    You could do a lot worse than Raines for the HOF

    He would not disgrace the HOF, but I am not sure the voters will give him the credit he deserves.
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