Name an outside economic element that helps and hurts the numismatic market.

291fifth

Helps: Lack of appealing alternative investments. Take stocks, for example. Nearly flat for five years.

Hurts: The rising cost of health insurance. Retirees make up a large percentage of coin collectors. White collar retirees are now being hit with very high health insurance cost increases. Unionized blue collar retirees are still largely protected, but only until the end of their next contract. After that, watch out.

PerryHall

INFLATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its a lot worse than the government would have you believe. Look at gasoline, housing, energy, etc prices.

RYK

Take stocks, for example. Nearly flat for five years.

Boy, am I sick of hearing that old line. Yes, there was a speculative bubble resulting in a bear market from 2000-2002 that wiped out a lot of capital. Despite this, the S&P 500 is up an annualized 4.2% over the last five years. If you were shrewd enough to be diversified in small cap, value, and international (away from Big Tech), you did considerably better.

291fifth

I often get the feeling that many participants in this forum truly believe that the numismatic market exists in its own, neat economic world, free from outside influences.

My posts, which often bring up outside influences on the numismatic market, are clearly unpopular with many forum participants.

There is an election coming up in November. Think very carefully about the future.

JJM

Oil

DickyBetz

Here is in obvious one: Precious metal prices.

Gemineye

Does raising a family count as an outside element as far as priorities go..??Many collectors have to set their hobbies aside when family needs come first..............................

RedTiger

<< <i>Take stocks, for example. Nearly flat for five years.

Boy, am I sick of hearing that old line. Yes, there was a speculative bubble resulting in a bear market from 2000-2002 that wiped out a lot of capital. Despite this, the S&P 500 is up an annualized 4.2% over the last five years. If you were shrewd enough to be diversified in small cap, value, and international (away from Big Tech), you did considerably better. >>



It is especially ironic considering that the PCGS CU3000 index of rare coins is up almost exactly the same as the S&P for the past five years, about 4% a year. Both the broad coin index and the broad stock index are at or near 5-year highs.

It is all a big melting pot. There are a hundred and one influences that have an effect on the coin market. Sometimes it is something unexpected, sometimes it is the obvious. Anything that drives demand higher and/or decreases supply is a positive factor, the opposite are negatives. In hindsight, it all becomes obvious.

For people reading along, my take: diversify, don't worry about timing the markets (coins or stocks). Put hobby money into coins, investment money elsewhere, except for a small percentage in precious metals as insurance.

cohodk

Agreed. Leave the timing to the pros.

BTW- $1 invested in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) has more than doubled in the last 3.5 years. Comparing the performance of the financial markets over the last 5 years is akin to comparing the metals markets over the past 25.

Diversification is an excellent way to acheive average returns.

curly

To me coin collecting is a hobby to be enjoyed with descretionary income. I also believe that, in the end, the only thing that drives the hobby is the collector. If he has the money, he buys, if he doesn't have the money, he sets and the prices come back to him.

ram1946

Helps: The fact that the first of the baby boomers begin turning 60 this year. Retirement is on the horizon and with that comes more time to devote to the things forgone during the family building years, including a return to numismatics.

Hurts: Too many hucksters touting our hobby as an investment, especially as precious metal prices rise. Too many will be fooled and turn sour on the true benefits of being a collector.

1921obsession

Helps: The current incompetent (oops - I can't edit a post while it's in progress) regime abandoning traditional government protections for those who can't protect themselves in favor of self-determination of retirement resources. The people thus forced into determining their own futures, at least some of them, will come our way. More people in the market means more movement. More movement, more population, more demand, more prices.

curly

192.....I couldn't disagree more. Most of the people who are smart enough to save (with any regularity) for their retirement will use mainstream vehicles. They might buy some coins to see what happens, but they are not going to put their future in something like coins.

carl

Helps: Should have been the first mentioned. The internet.
Also, increase in population, more exposure with stupid TV adds for coins, newspaper adds for coins, magazine adds for coins, metal detectors, the Mint making all those dumb varieties of quarters and now nickels.
Hurts: Should have been the first mentioned. The internet.
Also, increase in population, more exposure with stupid TV adds for coins, newspaper adds for coins, magazine adds for coins, metal detectors, the Mint making all those dumb varieties of quarters and now nickels.