Can anyone give any examples from experience how the census/pops are plain wrong?

fc

Can anyone give any examples from experience how the census pops are plain wrong?

I am finding it common for dealers of half eagles to mention
to me that the pops are probably inflated due to cross overs.
People are not telling PCGS or NGC they cracked their coins out
and the result is a census that is near useless when looking at
coins with pops of 100 or so in all grades.

are dealers spouting nonsense in most cases or are they darn right?

RYK

My best example is that there are eighteen 1884 Trade dollars in the combined PCGS/NGC population/census reports, and only ten were struck.

The pop reports for Dahlonega $5s, expecially in the 55/58 range are over-inflated for just about every date in the series.

fc

ryk,

interesting example.

Date Den Variety Desig VG-VF 40 45 50 53 55 58 60 61 62 63 64 Tot
1873-S $5 MS 31 10 16 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 69

I was going over the pops of half eagles and what I expect to find
is what I have shown above.

The majority of the coins being circulated (31).
The as you get finer in grade, there should be less coins in most
cases.

Well this aint the case. Most I am looking at have this big bulge
right in the middle where most coins grade. Like this example below.

1855-S $5 MS 16 8 13 10 13 12 13 0 0 1 0 0 86

I really would not expect this. 16 dogs with so many in that range
where the price just happens to spike to astronimcal heights.

i hope i made sense.

RYK

There is often a population bulge at the undergrade just before the price curve starts to get steep.

For a coin like the 1920 Saint, many believe that the PCGS pop is swelled at MS-64 as many try to get their coins to join the only one graded MS-65.

LickThoseStamps

Here the PCGS pop reports for the Jessica Lynch signature series. If they are correct, I scored my first top pop coin

..................................................................................Total Pop
89690 1994-W $1 P. O. W. Heros- J.Lynch........................90
89694 1994-W $1 Woman Military Heros- J.Lynch............12
89691 1994-P $1 P. O. W. Heros- J.Lynch..........................1 Unique!
89695 1994-P $1 Woman Military Heros- J.Lynch...............3

The eBay population for PCGS slabs is much greater

segoja

Several in the Ike series as well.

One of the 76-D Type I's in 67 is a type II. coin is pop one but report shows 2

Same on the 76-P. I personally know of 4 type II's in a type I holder. pop is 24, so the 4 is significant. There might even be more!!!

Russ

The PCGS pop report shows a POP 1/0 MS68 1964 Kennedy Half Dollar. The coin doesn't exist. It was a mis-attributed SMS coin that is now in an NGC SP69 holder. What's even funnier is that the price guide lists a value of $10,500 for this coin that doesn't exist.

Russ, NCNE

roadrunner

One of my favorites is the 1839 no drapery half dollar type. Lots of shenanigans going on here and the price spreads are very rewarding.

In 1998 the 62/63/64/65 pops were 3- 6-1-1
In 2001 the .................... pops were 3- 10-5-1
In Jan 05 ........................pops were 4- 14-6-2
In Apr 05 ........................ pops were 4- 11-7-2 (congrats on the
64 upgrade and it was thoughtful to return the 63 inserts too)

the only reality here is the MS62 and MS65 PCGS pops which show this to be a very tough coin to get in full mint state. I think even the 6 MS63's from 1998 were inflated. Typically the MS62 pop is at least the same if not higher.

obviously there was a big push by someone to get a 63 or 64 upgraded by one grade. Having only seen a few decent MS63 and 64 examples of the date I very much doubt the total pop of 18 for those 2 grades. Probably more like 6 to 8 pieces.

Gee I wonder if the 13,000 flips by Mr. Contursi had anything to do with the early pop increases. In any case someone tried 3 times for a 64, got it, and returned the flips in 2005.

roadrunner

Russ

<< <i>Gee I wonder if the 13,000 flips by Mr. Contursi had anything to do with the early pop increases. >>





Russ, NCNE