Logic of a 10,000% jump in price between MS66-67
2manycoins2fewfunds
Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭
Does anyone want to comment on the posted 100x increase(10,000%) in PCGS price guide between a Red MS66 and MS67 1956-D $0.01??
This huge price spread and 1-2 grade difference between TPGs is the heart of the con that Bluemoon coins recently pulled off..................... Comments??
This huge price spread and 1-2 grade difference between TPGs is the heart of the con that Bluemoon coins recently pulled off..................... Comments??
0
Comments
But hey, it's their money. If they'd rather have one 67 than one hundred 66s, that's up to them.
<< <i>The price of collectable coins is similar to price of fine wine, a linear increase in quality relates to an exponential increase in price. >>
Except that the increase in quality is more like logarithmic than linear once you hit about MS-65...
<< <i>The Registry is a game that has little to do with eye appealing coins---
!00% true...then throw in a little bragging rights and you got the cake mix.
if so, it is what it is.
or maybe PCGS is using the price guide as a game now??
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Does anyone want to comment on the posted 100x increase(10,000%) in PCGS price guide between a Red MS66 and MS67 1956-D $0.01??
This huge price spread and 1-2 grade difference between TPGs is the heart of the con that Bluemoon coins recently pulled off..................... Comments?? >>
A 66 is a nice coin, a 67 is a REALLY nice coin.
A dealer once offered me a slider (because I just could not finish this one series), but I looked at him in disgust and said "to have this in my collection would be a blasphemy"; there's no point in lowering your standards, wait till that special coin comes up and bid strong.
This is what must chap the a$$ of many dealers... to them a coin must be "any coin", but to a hardcore collector, it must be "the coin".
Besides, who cares, 2 bottles of classified Bordeaux at dinner will set you back at least $1,000 USD... and that's at home!
A nice meal, nice drink and then bring out the coins!
~g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
This is madness and I'd like to hear how anyone can defend it. Here are two coins from
the same century in the exact same grade and there is a huge price differential. What is
needed is a thread everyday explaining to the thousands and thousands of fools wasting
their money (which could buy lots of MS-70's) on 1794 dollars. What is the point? It's not
like there are people who collect these by date so does it really matter if there aren't quite
as many of one as the other. No it's mostly just an ego thing. The millions of people buying
the 1794 can lord it over the vast multitudes who can't afford the higher priced coins. Some
of hese will end up in the registry but when the grading services go out of business next
month due to lack of interest then who will want the billions of 1794 dollars. There's no way
anyone would collect coins in this low of grade if the grading companies hadn't made them
expensive by making them "low pop". This is balderdash. Someone should put a stop to all
this nonsense, call in the feds, or educate these people to look at the coins. Aren't they even
aware that you can get uncirculated quarters for face value right out of circulation. People selling
this dross should be locked up as the crooks they are and buyers should go to stalags for reedu-
cation. The graders are all crooks but we can probably control them so long as we keep them
from grading the crappy circulated garbage and they're going out of business soon anyway.
There's no need to let the regulators off the hook either. They've allowed this to go on for years
and heads must roll.
Once all this is complete we need a draconian solution to this problem.
I propose we melt all the coins that aren't a minimum of MS-63 unless they are in circulation. This
will get some interesting coins back in circulation as some would rather get three cents for there
low grade unc 1880 3c piece than the two cent melt value. The high melt value of 1804 dollars would
keep them out of circulation and assure they are never again available to fleece hard working Amer-
icans of their hard earned dollars. To be on the safe side it should also be a capital crime to make folders
for any coin that might be circulated. Anyone looking at their change longer than necessary to ascertain
its denomination must be pummeled by passersby.
Any collector owning or submitting a coin with so much as a rub should spend a few years in prison.
If these measures prove ineffective to prevent the rampant abuses then we'll just have to destroy
non-current coins and their little dogs too for their own damn good.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I can understand if the coin is a PCGS pop 1 and it in turn is a monster toned coin but lets face it................if you happened to have 100 PCGS MS66s and MS67s and you cracked them out for resubmission how many would have a grade change??
I'd like to see them leave off or at least * any price guide value where the sample size was so small as to make accuracy of value a question.
Grading services, who've already loosened market grading standards, will receive a wave of bad press, and be viewed with disdain by the general public, and that will drive even more people away from the hobby, resulting in a lowering of price guide values, which in turn will fuel another wave of disenchanted sellers (this time Average Joe collectors whose family members and friends have commented to them about the articles in the contemporary media) in a vicious circle that could cause a bust in the coin market big time. It's not far fetched to imagine articles in Time and US News, and stories in everyone's home town daily newspapers, about how an influential local businessman or politician got caught up in the "Rare Coin Scandals". Given $10,000 to spend on a certified coin, I can think of may truly scarce issues I'd rather have my money tied up into than a high-grade modern that's otherwise worth a fraction of the 10K without the Third-Party-OverGrading-Services plastic and paper insert.
Third party OverGrading, Over-Priced Television Coin Deals, a recent boom in US Mint Issues causing an influx of new money into the hobby, Unsavory Sellers, and Naive Buyers..... It's the "Perfect Storm" developing for a crash in the Coin Market. Many knowledgable collectors will stay in the hobby and keep buying at lower levels, of course, but many hobbyists (and 'collector-investors') could become disgusted with repeatedly lower values for collector grades in price guides (as the result of the media-induced wave of selling), and will bail out of the hobby, causing even more supply than demand and hastening the impending crash.
For every boom, there is an inevitable bust. I'm afraid we may all be Blue Mooned someday.
JMHO......
thecointrader
(Edited for spelling)
<< <i>Except that the increase in quality is more like logarithmic than linear once you hit about MS-65... >>
More like inverse logarithmic increase in quality.
<< <i>in a vicious circle that could cause a bust in the coin market big time. >>
Not to worry, the market makers will step in and save the day.
Russ, NCNE
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
<< <i>On second thought, better not say it. >>
Too late---we can read your mind.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>if you happened to have 100 PCGS MS66s and MS67s and you cracked them out for resubmission how many would have a grade change?? >>
Sadly, probably a few. That's a different issue though (grading inconsistency). I am a potential buyer of an ms67 if the right coin comes along on the right day (ie I actually have the money). I've looked through probably about 50 rolls of 56-d. I got graded 24 ms66's in fact but still no ms67. Some of mine are awfully close, yet if I saw a correctly graded ms67 in an auction I would know exactly how tough that coin is to find, exactly how rare it is, and exactly what I should bid (to be honest I think the coin is a little easier than the pop and price guide price indicates, 53-d is a lot harder... I scoffed (a truly awesome one of) that up in ms67 at $4200 instantly!). I just like collecting the best Lincolns I can find. I would do this if there were no registry. I do not care about registry rankings one bit. I know a lot of other Lincoln collectors too, and most have a similar passion for Lincolns. Sure I guess some just care about the number on the slab, but I think you guys ought to give more people the benefit of the doubt.
TorinoCobra71
<< <i>Cladking: I hope you were kidding. That was probably the most inane thing I've ever read. >>
There would be many unforeseen benefits were these ideas put into practice. Modern bashing would
drop to a new low. Most classic collectors would be forced to collect something else since there just
wouldn't be enough classics to go around. Few would develop an interest in moderns but would lose
most of their interest in bashing them. Many would be in prison or the various gulags and would
cause much less trouble. There would be much less danger of the hobby spiraling down the toilet when
all the classics with rubs have to be regraded as AU-58's or even AU-55's. This would cause stress on the
grading companies and more and more people would leave the hobby in disgust.
Imagine the interest generated in real numismatics when a child gets a nice 1880 3c piece in change.
While he couldn't enjoy this coin safely it might steer him to seek the latest states quarters in high
grade. This extra demand would tend to push the prices of these ever higher and be a great encour-
agement to collectors. With so many people having fun and making money the hobby would get more
popular and we'd be sure to have the new generation of collectors that is lacking now.
There might even be some benefit to the mint with collectors scouring change and setting aside the
choice coins, mintages could go down while profits go up. This might allow lower prices or higher
quality for new mint products which, again, would result in spiraling increase in the hobby. New
coins are less likely to be a vector for disease than old coins with their many crevices and general
crustiness. Perhaps we would even go back to washing ordinary pocket change and finally erad-
icate the common cold.
This may all be a pie-in-the-sky sort of dream since a few people would balk at giving up their coins
to save mankind but those who think I might be kidding can't imagine how much some wish they were.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>Cladking: I am a collector of moderns and all I can do is laugh at that. It is just a very stupid idea, plain and simple. Just my opinion.
We're in general agreement then.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Does anyone want to comment on the posted 100x increase(10,000%) in PCGS price guide between a Red MS66 and MS67 1956-D $0.01?? >>
Simple. The owner of a 67 must simply enjoy his coin 100x more than he would a 66.
>>>My Collection
Classic cars aren't 10,000% difference between best and second best.
Classic painting don't vary 10,000% between best and runner up.
Whole point of the post was to point out the core of the Blue Moon scam.
Find a hugh price gap, perhaps a truely unique situation. Use the varying standards between TPGs and bingo..............you can offer a price guides $100,000 worth of coins and deliver less than $1000 while still being able to hide behind the Price guide, TPGs, and double speak.
Because no-one will pay 10,001%
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
<< <i>Because no-one will pay 10,001%[
................No-one wants to but some Will................................
<< <i>A few fold, maybe even 10x between grades but 100X???...... 10,000% difference??
Classic cars aren't 10,000% difference between best and second best.
Classic painting don't vary 10,000% between best and runner up.
Whole point of the post was to point out the core of the Blue Moon scam.
Find a hugh price gap, perhaps a truely unique situation. Use the varying standards between TPGs and bingo..............you can offer a price guides $100,000 worth of coins and deliver less than $1000 while still being able to hide behind the Price guide, TPGs, and double speak. >>
This is a problem but unless you can get the mint to make a few more 68's there are
no simple solutions. Buyers and collectors need to be educated and, perhaps, those
grading need to be held to some sort of standard. More to the point though is that sellers
shouldn't be allowed to misrepresent their product this way. Saying or implying that their
MS-68 is equivalent to a PCGS MS-68 is misrepresentation.
I wonder, though, if this is really as large a problem as is apparent. Surely some of these
coins are being bought by knowledgeable buyers. How many of these $100,000 lots are
really bringing $100,000?
You can't legislate demand and supply is already fixed. A solution will have to attack the
practice at another level.
<< <i>The Registry is a game that has little to do with eye appealing coins---
What Morganut said.
I don't think ms67's are 10,000 percent better........
<< <i>an MS67 is a nicer coin than an MS66 by several orders of magnitude. >>
Several orders of magnitude? Well that is nice to know. Then obviously a TPG should absolutely NEVER downgrade a resubmitted 67 as a 66 or upgrade a 66. Forget about the excuse of "everyone makes mistakes sometimes", an error several orders of magnitude would be like heading for the show in Baltimore and winding up in Omaha instead. Or to keep it in coins Grading a Good as an AU-58 could possibly be considered several orders of magnitude. (I'm considering "several" to be no more than three.)
<< <i>
<< <i>an MS67 is a nicer coin than an MS66 by several orders of magnitude. >>
Several orders of magnitude? Well that is nice to know. Then obviously a TPG should absolutely NEVER downgrade a resubmitted 67 as a 66 or upgrade a 66. Forget about the excuse of "everyone makes mistakes sometimes", an error several orders of magnitude would be like heading for the show in Baltimore and winding up in Omaha instead. Or to keep it in coins Grading a Good as an AU-58 could possibly be considered several orders of magnitude. (I'm considering "several" to be no more than three.) >>
Actually no coin could even be two orders of magnitude better. A PO-01 ten times better would be a VG-10. A VG-10 ten times better would be an impossible MS-100.
A MS-67 could be significantly more pleasing to the decerning collector, but not several orders of magnitude.
Tom
<< <i>Actually no coin could even be two orders of magnitude better. A PO-01 ten times better would be a VG-10. A VG-10 ten times better would be an impossible MS-100. >>
Only true if the numbers actually meant something, they don't. The numbers on the 70 point grading scale are just another form of adjective that are only useful to keep straight what order the grades are supposed to be in. You could replace the standard numbers with A, B, C etc without changing anything in the grading scale. You just have to specify the starting point so you know if Poor-A is the top or bottom of the scale. Or you could decide that MS-A was a perfect coin with the getting worse as you go through the alphabet like they do with diamonds. The numbers are merely placeholders and anything can be used as a placeholder.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Its a question as to whether the difference justifies a 10,000% jump in price.
In most series the jump between next highest to highest grade is 3-10X.
Van Gogh painted several similar Sunflowers and some are clearly better examples and bring a higher price but not a 10,000% difference!!
For the gun collectors in the group the finest known 1 of 1000 Winchester will not bring 100X the others.
Bingo!
is exactly a MS-66 or an MS-67. They vary in strike, marking, and die condition. Any-
one who can't see the difference in quality in a one point range is probably half blind
or not trying. They certainly shouldn't be buying mint state coins.
The problem with grading isn't the typical coin, it's the not typical coin. There aren't
really standard ways to weight the various attributes so they can get different grades
depending on the "light" in which the grader or viewer sees the coin. Grading is often
just a judgement call and the slabbers are professionals so they tend to gade most of
these the way other professional will. It is this you're paying for; an opinion on the
approximate value of the coin. If you disagree then you can send it in again or send
it to another grader. Otherwise, you'll just have to sell or "use" the coin as is.
<< <i>Conder, if MS67 is the money grade, I believe there is a larger difference in quality between what PCGS would allow in a low-end MS66 holder and the MS67 money grade than there is the MS65 and the MS66. Perhaps that does indeed force many near 67 coins into MS66 holders, but I don't think it diminishes the difference in the size of the windows. JMO >>
It's not the size of the windows, it's the fuzziness of the borders between them. Pushing a coin from high-end 66 to low-end 67 will come down to the mood of a grader. If there's a big money difference, the grader will have to be careful about making that call. Of course, previous practices of the grading service established the money grade in the first place, which leads to the grading service being tight handing out the higher grade, and establishes a population of high-end almost-money-grade coins that are not orders of magnitude inferior to the money-grade coins, as would be indicated by the 10000% price jump. If PCGS were able to recall all 1956-D MS66 and 67 cents for regrading, without regard to what the price guides said, enough of each coin would grade the other way to indicate that the difference between the two is, indeed, small. The old "buy the coin, not the plastic" maxim seems to have changed to "buy the coin, not the plastic, unless you're building a registry set."
In regard to the 89-S Morgan dollar example, I think the difference between a 66 and 67 on a large coin is more perceptible than the difference on a small coin like a cent, yet the price difference you cite is "only" a 6x jump. At any rate, if I were looking to buy an 89-S Morgan in high grade, I'd be looking for a nice 66 rather than a low-end 67.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution