advice needed on 89 upper deck

easydoesit

Back when Griffey was traded to the reds I got this great idea to go out and buy up several 89ud factory sets and a little wax. Surely he would get to 700hr and be a huge hit with the reds and out of seattle. Well three hamstrings later I still have 15 factory sets and 3 boxes of wax. Question is... I am already in the whole obviously having paid those prices back then and what they go for now, so would you break the sets and hope for maybe 2 psa 10s from the lot or keep the sets sealed and wax and hope he gets hot again?

CB

Boopotts

I'd sell them now for whatever you can get. Griffey's stock isn't going to rise again (IMO). He has his time in the hobby, but the hobby has moved on-- as it so often does. Also, I can't think of a single ballplayer who's had the series of injuries that Griffey has had at this stage of his career who's gone on to have a 'renaissance' in his career. Maybe I'm missing someone, and Griffey is an exceptional ballplayer... but I think you'll save yourself a lot of time and headaches if you just dump it all now and put the money into something that you either a) will really enjoy, or b) you think will appreciate (hint: anything pre-war).

That's a part of this hobby that I and I think many others tend to overlook. You should only own something for one of two reasons: either because you like it or because you think it will appreciate in value. Otherwise what's the point? If it doesn't fit either of those criterion then it's just clutter. I'm as guilty as the next guy of holding on to stuff for no reason, so I'm not throwing stones, but I always try to keep that thought in mind when I'm thinking of paring down the collection. I have the stuff I actually enjoy, which is mostly an ecclectic lot of 60's hockey that's come back PSA 7 or lower from my submissions, and stuff that I think (hope?) will go up, like some nice 50's and earlier cards. Otherwise it's gone the minute it hits my hands!

Hope this helps some,

Guy

lawnmowerman

While Boopotts does put up a great argument, I would wait a bit and see what he does this year. I am an optimist, he might put up some great numbers this year.

ranorama

Well, this will sound like half a shameless plug for my auction, but it's also half your answer, from my perspective that is:

Years back I dropped $1200 on the last (10) '89 UD boxes left in a factory case. Slowly over the years (did I mention slowly) they sold, think I got $150 on maybe one or two of them. Now I am down to my last box, and look what it is at, I'm lucky if I broke even over the whole deal. For who, for what...



Ebay link - sad day for a once great box!

As for your factory sets, I don't know the market, but check SMR of the top 3 rookies if you think it's worth breaking them and submit for 9's or 10's. Not really I gamble I'm willing to take.

Bosox1976

'89 Griffey's, wax, and sets are a commodity on ebay - plentiful and "non-unique". Your sets are no different than anyone else's sets. As such, I'd consider grading the griffeys (and the best Johnsons). Nobody seems to sell the sets with graded stars and this would at least make your auction slightly different.

For instance, I bought a set from a newer seller recently. Paid $55 + $7 for the 89 UD set including a BGS 9 Griffey, a PSA 9 Johnson and a PSA 10 Bo Jackson.

I am selling the BGS Griffey seperately, and have replaced it with a PSA 9 Griffey (paid $42) and listed the set (with the PSA 9 Johnson and PSA 10 Bo) for a Buy-it-now of $89.99 and I believe it will sell quickly. (Hopefully I'll get $60 or $70 for the BGS too). So I spent $104, and hope to get about $160 less ebay fees.

We'll see.

Biggest risk for you would be to open up the sets and invest further and get PSA 7 or 8 Griffey's. But with 15 sets, you will get a 10 or two. Hopefully a bunch of 9's and mimimal 8's.

Otherwise, I'd blow it out in one big "investment lot" right now - Griffey is dominating the WBC - put the 15 sets plus the wax for $1,250 or so. Someone will buy it. Good Luck. ==EDIT==: tomorrow is .10 listing day on ebay - what have you got to lose?

lawnmowerman

<< <i>

- Griffey is dominating the WBC . >>

Mike, Are you saying this because of his play or because of his presence (fan attention). I have not been following the WBC.

If its because of his play wouldnt this be a sign of good things to come for this year?

Bosox1976

His play has been dominating - but, sadly, I cannot imagine him going a full year without a major injury. His skills are there (like Frank Thomas), but the body is not willing.

chaz43

You guys crack me up. Use your heads for once. BUY MORE AND DOLLAR COST AVERAGE!!!! You haven't bought that much where you can't dollar cost average and just dump them over time. All early 90's stuff is cheap now. I heard back in the 80's how 1978, 79 and 80 topps were so overproduced and now look. Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz

lostdart58

Yes I laugh also..........anyone who says that they thought KGJ would hit 700 HR in 1989 or when he got trade to the REDS was kidding themselves............His cards will be worth alot more the year he makes the HOF and that day WILL come.........................................hold on untill then and make some money............but that is six or seven or eight years from now.......

bsfastball

I think more and more people are appreciating what he's done because he seems like the only one who did it clean. I would bet there will be a nice farewell tour the year he decides to hang them up a la Ripken and Gwynn. I'd hang on to them.

Boopotts

<< <i>You guys crack me up. Use your heads for once. BUY MORE AND DOLLAR COST AVERAGE!!!! You haven't bought that much where you can't dollar cost average and just dump them over time. All early 90's stuff is cheap now. I heard back in the 80's how 1978, 79 and 80 topps were so overproduced and now look. Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



That's a silly analogy. Late 70's Topps had nowhere to go but up. Look at the prices for that stuff in 1985-- you couldn't give it away.

The 1989 UD is a whole different story. It has crashed in price in the past 5 years, and unless you think Griffey is going to suddenly mash his way to 700 it's not going to go back up. And, ALL the 89 UD out there has been preserved. Griffey RC's are not like Molitor or Ozzie Smith RC's, where probably 90% of the print run was destroyed by kids in the first three years after issue. Every Griffey RC that's ever been pulled is in a screw down or top loader somewhere.

It's one thing to think that time is on your side when you buy something that nobody appreciated at the time of issue. It's quite another to think this way when you're comtemplating a set that was hotter than Hades for 10 years, and has come down in price by 300% over the past five years. If you can name for me another set that's gone back up AFTER it's crashed the first time I'll reconsider-- but in this hobby that never happens.

And anyway, like I said in my first post I cannot imagine that 89 UD is going to outperorm some random PSA 7 or 8 1933 Goudey, so there's no need tying your money up in these sets unless you enjoy owning them.

ranorama

<< <i>Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



"That's exactly my point too, chaz" - signed Orenthal James Simpson

DeutscherGeist

If I had 15 UD 89 sets that were factory sealed and I knew them to be untampered with, I would keep them.

First of all, that set was the hottest thing back in the day and revolutionized baseball cards--cards started becoming more higher quality and better looking.

There are some key cards in that set such as the Griffey, Johnson and Sheffield who are all going to the HOF. As each enter the HOF, that set will have a boost in demand that day.

THere are other interesting cards in that set too: John Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux and Biggio

You can't forget other notables such as Jim Abbott, Nolan Ryan and Bo Jackson

Its a very beautiful set and has historical value in the hobby.

This set will not drop any further and as the top stars get into the HOF, that will be some of the best times to sell. If you can store them, do it. If you are running out of space, I guess you can sell them and just buy a vintage card or something---you will still preserve the investment but in a different form of course.



To be honest, its the 1989 UD factory sealed set that I would pay for if I had to choose what I wanted to buy for my collection. I always wanted one. I recall a time when it sold for $100 each. That was in 1993-1994. In that area anyway. However, that set was so hot because of the Griffey, many have been expertly looted. The Griffey is missing in many sealed sets. I am reluctant to purchase this set only because of that reason. Personally, I also like the 1984 Donruss, but the player selection in the 89 set is what I like.

Writer11

A good example of a set that is enjoying a real resurgence in interest is 1984 Donruss. Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't that set huge for a time then the bottom dropped out? Now PSA 10 Mattinglys are selling for more than $800. Maybe, I'm an eternal optimist, but I believe there is a chance for 1989 Upper Deck to rebound.

ndleo

The question for easydoesit to answer isn't "Will 1989 UD Baseball come back in value?"

The question is "Can I do better by putting that money into something else?" The answer to that question is Yes. Even the 1989 UD fans here admit it will be a long climb back. The opportunity cost of having all that cash tied up in slow set is huge.

There are two paths for you:

1) Roll the dice and buy some hot rookies in whichever sport you follow. My suggestion is buying 2006 football when it comes out, especially AJ Hawk.

2) Buy a graded vintage rookie or vintage set. Even at the current high values, the prices for solid high grade rookies still can rise 10-20%. Do that enough times and you will make your money back a lot faster than 7-8 years. You may have to spend some time trying to buy at good prices, but making money isn't easy unless you are a pimp (and don't tell me pimpin ain't easy).

I would sell the sets and boxes as a lot. Selling as a lot may net you a slight premium from someone looking to buy bulk, plus you will get your cash faster. The last thing you want to do is put more money into these sets.

mikeschmidt

<< <i>A good example of a set that is enjoying a real resurgence in interest is 1984 Donruss. Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't that set huge for a time then the bottom dropped out? Now PSA 10 Mattinglys are selling for more than $800. Maybe, I'm an eternal optimist, but I believe there is a chance for 1989 Upper Deck to rebound. >>



Be careful with your assessment. 1984 Donruss may have rebounded, but only for the ultimate PSA 10 GEM MINT grade. The vast majority of HOF PSA 9s are selling for a fraction of what they did a few years ago, with many/most not even realizing grading fees.

onlyanumber

I'd say keep 2 wax boxes, 5 sets sealed. Cannibalize a handful of sets for grading and sell the rest on Ebay when one of the notable players with a rookie card in the set passes a milestone.

You have five potential HOfers rookie cards in that set--Griffey, Johnson, Sheffield, Smoltz and Biggio. How many more sets from the past 20 years can you make that statement about?

MooseDog

Ranorama - I see boxes of OPC Premiere Hockey in your listing photo. Are those 1990-91? If so and you're selling them, let me know what you'd want for a box of those. You can PM me or email me here

jerry (at) trackmaster.com



Thanks.

Boopotts

<< <i>I'd say keep 2 wax boxes, 5 sets sealed. Cannibalize a handful of sets for grading and sell the rest on Ebay when one of the notable players with a rookie card in the set passes a milestone.

You have five potential HOfers rookie cards in that set--Griffey, Johnson, Sheffield, Smoltz and Biggio. How many more sets from the past 20 years can you make that statement about? >>




There's two sides of the equation-- supply and demand. Why would you think that the demand for this product will ever again be a strong as it was when the grading phenomenon first took off and Griffey looked like a lock to be the first one to 756 HR's? It was a perfect storm back in 2000, and Griffey cards were the beneficiary. That set of circumstances will never arise again.

It's also a myth that the RC's of future HOF's will make this stratospheric leap in value once the player is inducted. Gywnn's cards didn't go up upon induction, Ripken's didn't, Boggs' didn't, and so on. The fact that they are future HOF's is already factored into the current price.

Boopotts

<< <i>A good example of a set that is enjoying a real resurgence in interest is 1984 Donruss. Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't that set huge for a time then the bottom dropped out? Now PSA 10 Mattinglys are selling for more than $800. Maybe, I'm an eternal optimist, but I believe there is a chance for 1989 Upper Deck to rebound. >>




Like Marc said that's just one card in the set. The frenzy that surrounded this set in 1988 has never been duplicated, and although the prices for factory sets, etc., has gone up in the last 15 years you need to remember that there seems to be far, far less 84 D floating around then 89 UD.

ndleo

Boopotts has a valid point, most HOF locks are already priced in. You only see the pop if a surprise borderline guy gets in like Sutter. If you want to play that game, you are better off buying 100-ct lots of Smoltz Rookies than waiting for the sets to go up.

Griffey and Johnson are locks. Sheffield and Biggio are getting close. The only real borderline guy is Smoltz and he has a 1988 Fleer Update card that is rarer than 1989 UD.

theczar

It's one thing to think that time is on your side when you buy something that nobody appreciated at the time of issue. It's quite another to think this way when you're comtemplating a set that was hotter than Hades for 10 years, and has come down in price by 300% over the past five years. If you can name for me another set that's gone back up AFTER it's crashed the first time I'll reconsider-- but in this hobby that never happens.

1985 topps and all junk sammy sosa rookie sets all skyrocketed in 1998. a dealer friend cleared out his warehouse of this stuff in 1998 and drove it down to QVC.

otherwise rarely does it happen.

onlyanumber

<< <i>

There's two sides of the equation-- supply and demand. Why would you think that the demand for this product will ever again be a strong as it was when the grading phenomenon first took off and Griffey looked like a lock to be the first one to 756 HR's? It was a perfect storm back in 2000, and Griffey cards were the beneficiary. That set of circumstances will never arise again.

It's also a myth that the RC's of future HOF's will make this stratospheric leap in value once the player is inducted. Gywnn's cards didn't go up upon induction, Ripken's didn't, Boggs' didn't, and so on. The fact that they are future HOF's is already factored into the current price. >>



You make some very valid points and I agree with you, but the 1989 Upper Deck set also has the X Factor going with it. It was the first of the new generation of baseball cards--nice photos, better paper stock. They were the first of the 'premium' and I use that term loosely, baseball card. Collectors remember that and may pay accordingly. You will never see the heights that we've seen in the past, but as time progresses and factory sets get cannibalized, sealed unsearched sets become a commodity.

chaz43

<< <i>

<< <i>You guys crack me up. Use your heads for once. BUY MORE AND DOLLAR COST AVERAGE!!!! You haven't bought that much where you can't dollar cost average and just dump them over time. All early 90's stuff is cheap now. I heard back in the 80's how 1978, 79 and 80 topps were so overproduced and now look. Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



That's a silly analogy. Late 70's Topps had nowhere to go but up. Look at the prices for that stuff in 1985-- you couldn't give it away.

The 1989 UD is a whole different story. It has crashed in price in the past 5 years, and unless you think Griffey is going to suddenly mash his way to 700 it's not going to go back up. And, ALL the 89 UD out there has been preserved. Griffey RC's are not like Molitor or Ozzie Smith RC's, where probably 90% of the print run was destroyed by kids in the first three years after issue. Every Griffey RC that's ever been pulled is in a screw down or top loader somewhere.

It's one thing to think that time is on your side when you buy something that nobody appreciated at the time of issue. It's quite another to think this way when you're comtemplating a set that was hotter than Hades for 10 years, and has come down in price by 300% over the past five years. If you can name for me another set that's gone back up AFTER it's crashed the first time I'll reconsider-- but in this hobby that never happens.

And anyway, like I said in my first post I cannot imagine that 89 UD is going to outperorm some random PSA 7 or 8 1933 Goudey, so there's no need tying your money up in these sets unless you enjoy owning them. >>




Silly ??? You are silly my freind. I said to DOLLAR COST AVERAGE. Buy more untill you get close to what you paid and then dump it. Use your head and read it correctly. chaz

chaz43

<< <i>

<< <i>Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



"That's exactly my point too, chaz" - signed Orenthal James Simpson


>>




That's right turkey. Time is always on the side of the investor. chaz

Boopotts

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>You guys crack me up. Use your heads for once. BUY MORE AND DOLLAR COST AVERAGE!!!! You haven't bought that much where you can't dollar cost average and just dump them over time. All early 90's stuff is cheap now. I heard back in the 80's how 1978, 79 and 80 topps were so overproduced and now look. Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



That's a silly analogy. Late 70's Topps had nowhere to go but up. Look at the prices for that stuff in 1985-- you couldn't give it away.

The 1989 UD is a whole different story. It has crashed in price in the past 5 years, and unless you think Griffey is going to suddenly mash his way to 700 it's not going to go back up. And, ALL the 89 UD out there has been preserved. Griffey RC's are not like Molitor or Ozzie Smith RC's, where probably 90% of the print run was destroyed by kids in the first three years after issue. Every Griffey RC that's ever been pulled is in a screw down or top loader somewhere.

It's one thing to think that time is on your side when you buy something that nobody appreciated at the time of issue. It's quite another to think this way when you're comtemplating a set that was hotter than Hades for 10 years, and has come down in price by 300% over the past five years. If you can name for me another set that's gone back up AFTER it's crashed the first time I'll reconsider-- but in this hobby that never happens.

And anyway, like I said in my first post I cannot imagine that 89 UD is going to outperorm some random PSA 7 or 8 1933 Goudey, so there's no need tying your money up in these sets unless you enjoy owning them. >>




Silly ??? You are silly my freind. I said to DOLLAR COST AVERAGE. Buy more untill you get close to what you paid and then dump it. Use your head and read it correctly. chaz >>





LOL. Brilliant idea.

Let's say I have 20 boxes right now that are worth $50 each that I paid $100 each for.

Now I'm going to buy 20 more boxes at $50 each and sit on them, so that when these boxes drop down to $40 each I'll only be losing 35$ per box instead of $50!

Instead of DOLLAR COST AVERAGE, let's try on these two terms: COST OPPORTUNITY and DON'T TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE.

easydoesit

Thanks to everybody who responded.

Chris

RipublicaninMass

Great points on all sides. My 2 cents
It was the first year of upper deck which revolutionized collecting. Yes it meant screw downs and top loaders. The first year of anything is usually wirth something, unless it is 88 score (aside from the glossy update) or the 1st year of the Yugo!

chaz43

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>You guys crack me up. Use your heads for once. BUY MORE AND DOLLAR COST AVERAGE!!!! You haven't bought that much where you can't dollar cost average and just dump them over time. All early 90's stuff is cheap now. I heard back in the 80's how 1978, 79 and 80 topps were so overproduced and now look. Time is always on the side of the investor, remember that. chaz >>



That's a silly analogy. Late 70's Topps had nowhere to go but up. Look at the prices for that stuff in 1985-- you couldn't give it away.

The 1989 UD is a whole different story. It has crashed in price in the past 5 years, and unless you think Griffey is going to suddenly mash his way to 700 it's not going to go back up. And, ALL the 89 UD out there has been preserved. Griffey RC's are not like Molitor or Ozzie Smith RC's, where probably 90% of the print run was destroyed by kids in the first three years after issue. Every Griffey RC that's ever been pulled is in a screw down or top loader somewhere.

It's one thing to think that time is on your side when you buy something that nobody appreciated at the time of issue. It's quite another to think this way when you're comtemplating a set that was hotter than Hades for 10 years, and has come down in price by 300% over the past five years. If you can name for me another set that's gone back up AFTER it's crashed the first time I'll reconsider-- but in this hobby that never happens.

And anyway, like I said in my first post I cannot imagine that 89 UD is going to outperorm some random PSA 7 or 8 1933 Goudey, so there's no need tying your money up in these sets unless you enjoy owning them. >>




Silly ??? You are silly my freind. I said to DOLLAR COST AVERAGE. Buy more untill you get close to what you paid and then dump it. Use your head and read it correctly. chaz >>





LOL. Brilliant idea.

Let's say I have 20 boxes right now that are worth $50 each that I paid $100 each for.

Now I'm going to buy 20 more boxes at $50 each and sit on them, so that when these boxes drop down to $40 each I'll only be losing 35$ per box instead of $50!

Instead of DOLLAR COST AVERAGE, let's try on these two terms: COST OPPORTUNITY and DON'T TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE. >>




If you don't get it by now, you'll never get it. Buy now while it's cheap, lower your cost and then dump it.