Classic folks, how would you value this modern? (seriously)
DHeath
Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
As you know, in 82-83, the mint did not produce mint sets with the exception of the souvenir sets available at the mint gift shop. No hoard of BU Washingtons larger than a few hundred coins is known to exist, and bid on an 83-P roll was over $1000 the last time I looked. PCGS has holdered 109 of these coins in MS65, 51 in MS66, and 5 in MS67. If you were required to take a PCGS MS67 83-P in trade (sight-unseen), what value would you give it?
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
0
Comments
Don,
More than most "classic folks", I understand the issue with the 1982 and 1983 quarters. I have been looking for them at shows and finally saw a PCGS MS-65.
Your hypothetical breaks downs because:
1. Why would I be required to take it? They are so liquid at auction, I would tell the owner to sell it in ebay or Teletrade. Plus, I am a collector; I am not required to buy anything.
2. I would not take anything expensive or valuable sight-unseen.
3. I would not know how to value it. I guess I could research Heriatge and Teletrade to see what they have sold for in the past (if they have sold there). I could ask a specialist for help.
4. I would check the PCGS price guide. It values the coin at $1500. I would offer to take the coin on memo or, gun to my head, for $1000.
I really DO think dealers like Laura have a point regarding some moderns. I don't collect 70 anything, and I holder more than I buy holdered,but if you're willing to advise modern collectors, you certainly should be willing to REALLY advise modern collectors. I would really like to understand what these coins look like from other's point of view. The central issues in my hypothetical are whether you believe the PCGS grade has merit, whether you believe the coin in my example is scarce in supergem, and whether there is a market for the coin after you trade for it. Those are important issues to modern folks.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
if i wanted it.
face value.
<< <i>Since I don't know the market for these coins I would discount it heavily. Before disposing of it I would do some research and then sell it outside of my own market, probably to a specialist. I wouldn't want the seller to know how much I was marking it up. >>
I don't blame you in the least and I'd do the exact same thing with something
I was forced to buy outside my specialty. But, herein probably lies much of the
source of the perception that moderns have no value outside their holders and
outside their markets. While high priced pop tops are rarely seen, it is very com-
mon for people who come in off the street to have some of this material. Usually
it will be common stuff that they bought from a promotion or from a TV pitch. It
will tend to be things like PR-69 eagles or a date run of PR-69 Kennedys from the
'80's or '90's. The dealer knows that he has no idea where the market is on such
coins and it's a very safe bet that full retail is less than the person paid for them.
Dealers always have heavily discounted moderns. I've seen them offer face value
or less for everything if the seller insists on a price. For many years they told sell-
ers to just spend anything dated after 1964 which was better advice then selling
it to that dealer. So where does this leave a dealer with a legitimately rare mod-
ern? Scratching his head. Even if he recognizes it as a rarity, he'll have very lit-
tle idea of its true value or the current state of the market.
He's is likely to do just as 291fifth or I would do and offer a small fraction of any price
he can find.
A lot of dealers have no respect for moderns so they'll then tell people that the coins
are worth a small fraction of the catalog prices and have no value outside the holder.
Keep in mind that 100% of existing dealers are not market makers in moderns.
(except for the few who are)
There are growing numbers of people who collect moderns and soon most dealer will
have at least one customer for this material. Even dealers who would rather not trade
in this material at all will be forced by the marketplace to do so. It is filling the pipeline
of desirable moderns that will push these markets to critical mass because there sim-
ply isn't even enough of the better material to supply the dealers.
In this case probably fewer than 80,000 of this coin survived in unc. Most of these are
quite poor and would charitably be described as MS-60. Only a few percent are even
really choice. Another million or so exist in AU but even fewer of these are choice.
High grade coins tend to be quite rare in moderns. There are millions of people now
days scouring new rolls looking for high grade coins before they are released and only
hundreds are being found. How many '83-P quarters were found when no one was
looking?
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>I personally wouldnt pay more than a 100.00 for it if that much. Don, thier are actually more of those out there than one tends to believe, correct, they will not grade 67, but thier is still a bag down south that was rescued from katrina. Also, there was a dealer from Pacific northwest that made a crowd of those in recent years , in fact, I beleive he had a lot to do with the population increase in recent years. >>
I concur
<< <i>Even though there were no official mint sets for the 82 & 83 there were some souvenier sets and the mintage for those years are relatively high.Given those factors I cannot see the jusification of the higher prices of thse coins unless one is hoping to score a high grade coin such as an ms 67 or better...................................................................
There are no MS-67's in the souvenir sets and are very few true MS-65's. These
actually tend pretty nice but in this case that means MS-63 with some MS-64's.
Reported mintage of the Philly souvenir set was 15,000 but this seems a little low
based on the number I've seen. All these in this set are the type "c" reverse.
Anyway, I'll echo the others in "why do I have to take this coin" but in the artificial world in which i do have to buy it, I'd search the records for actual sales prices, average the last 3, and offer half of that.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I am not familiar with
*** these in this set are the type "c" reverse. ***
I'll have to check the grade and be .....Objective..................
Wondercoin
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>This'll be a fun Lazarus thread in a few years. >>
Truer words were never spoken but I may have to enjoy some of that now.
<< <i>with a mintage of 673,535,000, I would pay maybe a buck for a nice Bu coin such as an MS63. I trust that these are available in essentially endless quantity, as it is the 65 that starts to get tough. I have no interest in conditional rarities of coins with mintages that high, or even 1% of that, for that matter..
Anyway, I'll echo the others in "why do I have to take this coin" but in the artificial world in which i do have to buy it, I'd search the records for actual sales prices, average the last 3, and offer half of that. >>
The wholesale price on the MS-60 is over $1000 per roll or $25 per coin. Believe it or not even
nice attractive MS-63's are quite scarce. (on a relative basis).
<< <i>
I am not familiar with
*** these in this set are the type "c" reverse. ***
>>
The '77 to '84 quarters came with two different reverses; the large motto type "c" and the small motto type "d".
In the early years the type "d" is very scarce and is more difficult to spot because the difference is lesser. As the years went by a larger percentage are type "d" and the difference became much more noticeable.
The coin is characterized by much lower relief and slightly different spacing in the lettering relative to the rim and a different shape of the Q. There are also numerous small differences. The best Pick-Up-Point (PUP) is the spacing between the right side of the N in UNUM and the eagles head. It is much greater on the type "d".
None of these appear in mint sets except the 1981-P but is quite tough in sets ~1: 170. There is no '82-P type "d". None appear in souvenir sets either but there are a few privately packaged '82 -'84 sets which contain the type "d". The flat pack '82 sets tend to have these and many of the striped Paul and Judy sets have them.
Some of the early issues probably don't even exist in unc and by the time people rescue them from circulation the Very Fines may be condition rarities.
<< <i>At one of the earliest PCGS "Invitationals" a few years ago, I was enjoying dinner with a bunch of classic coin dealers where we were discussing modern MS coins from the 1970's - 1990's. I mentioned that I would be interested in a 1983(p) quarter in PCGS-MS67 if anyone could check their 1983 rolls back at the shop and see what they had. I told the dealers I would pay $1,000 for one. A few of them commented that it essentially wouldn't be "worth their tme" to look for $1,000. So, I told the dealers at the table that I would commit to buying up to (25) PCGS-MS67 coins at $1,000/coin if they would deliver as many as they could to me in the next (60) days. After the chuckling and amazement at my offer subsided, a couple of the dealers told me I "had a deal" and, at least one said he was heading to his shop after dinner to start the sorting/submission process. When I met with the dealers 2 months later, guss how many coins I bought? If I am not mistaken, Mike DeFalco was at the dinner table that night and may recall the discussion (I also recall he was enjoying his share of laughter at the table when I made the proposal - and, frankly, I expected that). AND STILL DO.
Wondercoin >>
I advertised to pay crazy prices for these all through the '90's. I got fewer than ten.
I just found a my 1983 mint set ..NOT ..souvinier set
If I'm not mistaken my 82 will have **souvenier** on it ....I'll keep looking for that.
The 83 set looks Great..........................
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I have no idea what a fair price is for this date IN 67... $300.00? $3,000.00?
The better question Wodercoin is how many of your dealer friends at the table who said it was not worth there time have ever submitted a modern coin to begin with?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
This is a mighty big assumption. How could any collector or dealer know this to be true of any coin series? Many hoards that come out are unknown until they show up or are discovered. Anyone who accumulates a large hoard of any coin would be foolish to advertise it.
<< <i>"No hoard of BU Washingtons larger than a few hundred coins is known to exist,"
This is a mighty big assumption. How could any collector or dealer know this to be true of any coin series? Many hoards that come out are unknown until they show up or are discovered. Anyone who accumulates a large hoard of any coin would be foolish to advertise it. >>
My eyesight must be going. I can't find this quote and don't remember ever seeing such a statement on the boards.
Be that as it may I would like to address it.
I've been chasing these coins for decades and paying extreme attention to both the
market and the actions of collectors and dealers in regard to these coins. It is very dif-
ficult to believe too much has totally escaped my notice. I talk to dealers everywhere
and watch bids and sales. I drop a note to advertisers to ask what specifically their
needs or stocks are.
The one thing that is never seen is any indication whatsoever that anyone ever set
any coins aside or had any interest in buying, selling or collecting these coins. Obviously
this has evolved gradually over the years. There was massive hoarding of the 1965
issues just like the earlier issues initially. I'd guess this was in the range of 20,000,000
quarters. These coins were gradually released as the years went by and there was sim-
ply no market or collector interest in them. You will still see a roll pop up in collector es-
tates once in a long while. For every three rolls of these you see you'll see 1 roll of '66
or '67's. You won't see 1969 rolls. I haven't seen a 1969 roll since 1969!!! In 1983 ev-
eryone knew there would be no mint sets hence no source for quarters later. This resulted
in a massive increase in the number of coins set aside. Private concerns also saw an op-
portunity to sell sets of coins and probably made around 25,000 mint sets from rolls. These
have, no doubt suffered a high attrition since they had very little value in the early years.
To get an idea how scarce these coins really are consider that even today with all the ex-
citement about moderns the early clad rolls mostly sell for prices based on face value and
these are scarcer than the '83-P!!! If people were setting these coins aside in those days
then where are they now. Surely saving clads didn't confer immortality on people but the
coins aren't around and are rarely seen. They don't appear in dealer's stock nor in estate
sales. Sure the price is low and they'd hardly make much splash when they appear but go
look. Not only are there no bags but no rolls, few singles and few collections.
The one factor that is difficult to explain with this theory is the huge numbers of mint sets made.
This would imply large interest but the prices of these sets used to be lower than face value.
The best coins tend to be in the sets but there was so little interest that prices fell to under face!!
It would seem most of these were purchased as an investment and that as they came on the
market the demand wasn't sufficient to even keep the price as high as face. Some people just
want to buy mint products and these were almost all that was offered in many years.
So if someone has a horde of any of the mint state moderns, then where did they get them and
how could they do it without attracting attention? Even going bank to bank was no gaurantee
that someone could find nice coins. Some were just so tough you coul;d put huge effort into it
and not locate them. Costs of saving these coins was also quite high. A quarter was real money
in the '70's and by the late '70's interest rates were very high and opportunity costs were high.
It was impossible to find anyone who believed these coins would ever be collected. No one ever
heard of anyone who was saving them. It was the '80's before I bumped into the first modern
collector in a coin shop though there were an occasional posting of someone looking for high grade
halfs or Ikes even in the late '70's.
No bags of '83-P's have hit the market though the location of two have been reported (one is referred
to in this thread). Since two are known it's quite plausible that there are another eight or ten that
are being kept quiet. What about 1969 rolls. These listed for $15 ten years back and I've never seen
one. How many of these exist?
Now comes the biggie. There are no gems in a '69 quarter roll even if you find a roll. These things
were horrid in 1969 and the years since will not have helped. This may well be true for the '83-P as
well. This coin was horribly made and this is part of the reason it wasn't saved.
I may have the largest horde of high grade '83-P quarters (in a safety deposit box) and frankly it
is most unlikely there's an MS-67 in the lot. There may be only one or two MS-66's. I wasn't lucky
on this coin but even those I was lucky on I don't have huge hordes just waiting for the price to
double to drop them on an unsuspecting market. Simply stated these coins are scarce. It is most
unlikely anyone could have assembled a horde from raw coins without my seeing his activities.
If there are hordes it's because someone got lucky in 1983 and had both the wealth and the courage
to store them. I was there and saw extremely little interest in the coins from anyone and if there
are large hordes waiting to come out then where are the small hordes that must also exist? If the
price is already up 4000 fold then at what price is the holder going to sell? Wouldn't dropping a few
on the market tend to goose it and be beneficial to the horder?
None of the regular issues are rare in unc. Many are scarce in gem and rare in high grade and this
will not change though, obviously, there are going to be more coins graded of all these coins.
Coinkat: Hard to say. My guess would be very, very few. I tried to make it interesting by agreeing to buy up to (25) coins. Of course, none were graded. A few dealers mentioned to me later that they never realized just how hard it was to even locate 1983(p) fresh, original quarter rolls - let alone high grade specimens of the coin.
And, IMHO, 1983(p) is not even the toughest coin in the series to locate in MS67 grade- 1969(p) and 1971(p) are more challenging to name just (2). The last price guide jump on the 1969(p) quarter as I recall last year went from $300 to where it is today - $3,500 (in one clean swoop). Yet, I have not heard of a single coin being made available at full Price Guide in the past year. Frankly, I would be surprised if a coin became available even if the Guide moved up to near $5,000 on the coin. A number of "hunters" have been looking to slab coins like 1969(p) quarters (and 1983(p) quarters) for years in MS67 or better grade. The coins are simply too difficult to locate in that grade - just like the 1955(d) quarter - a sub-$500 coin in MS66 quite often, but, exceedingly rare in true MS67 grade.
Wondercoin
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Price wise? I agree that it's a great coin but it wouldn't be worth more than a couple hundred dollars in 67 to me. But we each have our own priorities.
p.s. Are the souveneir sets still selling for around fifty bucks each??
EZ_E/Victor/Mr.Yuk: lover of prehistoric, megabeast-sized canines. EVP
averages only slightly better than rolls but rolls can be very hard to find and expensive.
The sets are available even if they are expensive so they are consumed to build collections.