Is grade rarity versus fundamental rarity similar to the age old debate of (damn) moderns versus cla
Longacre
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There is a new blog on the Doug Winter site. Here is a link: Winter blog
In the article he discusses grade rarity versus fundamental rarity. I could not help but notice that this blog came on the heels of his blog about moderns versus classics. Although he presented a balanced view of moderns, I got a pixie grin on my face as I read it, thinking that one of the most powerful southern gold dealers in the universe was discussing moderns on his website. Does anyone think that the current trend toward grade rarity (as opposed to seeking coins of fundamental rarity), has any relation to the future performance (and past performance) or moderns versus classics? I think the two views (rarity type and modern/classic) are related, but I don't know if it is fair to link the two blogs together. What do you think?
In the article he discusses grade rarity versus fundamental rarity. I could not help but notice that this blog came on the heels of his blog about moderns versus classics. Although he presented a balanced view of moderns, I got a pixie grin on my face as I read it, thinking that one of the most powerful southern gold dealers in the universe was discussing moderns on his website. Does anyone think that the current trend toward grade rarity (as opposed to seeking coins of fundamental rarity), has any relation to the future performance (and past performance) or moderns versus classics? I think the two views (rarity type and modern/classic) are related, but I don't know if it is fair to link the two blogs together. What do you think?
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
In a round about way, the same argument can be made about condition rarity for certain moderns... which is okay if that is if there is a sophisticated and strong collector base to support the value in the marketplace. The challenge is still selling collectors that they really need the finest known example... I am a skeptic of the "keeping up with the Jones" mentality when it comes to condition rarities... classic or modern.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
so many inconsequential differences between most moderns and most classics that it's
easy to believe that they are different things but they aren't. Most of the difference is in
perceptions. The same motives drive collectors of both and they have very similar goals.
Grading companies are not the main cause of the price difference at the high end of the
grading scale for moderns or classics. The primary driving factor is demand and the inter-
net is the vehicle. Certainly grading companies have identified and segregated the grades
which fascilitate finding them but people were grading coins before the advent of TPG's
and if they go away, then they'll be grading them after. Saying the grading companies cre-
ate these values is equivalent to saying maps cause heavy traffic.
You might be able to make the argument that it's third party grading that has made a mar-
ket with few dealers possible but they can't invent demand where none exists.
Some people will want the '20 $20 in 64 and some will pay up for the 65. Others are work-
ing sets of Morgans or Ikes.
Wait a minute! Didn't we spend the last two days teaching/learning that they are different?
I would buy my 1920 $20 in 64 thankyouverymuch and not think twice about it.
<< <i> There is no fundamental difference between collecting classics and moderns.
Wait a minute! Didn't we spend the last two days teaching/learning that they are different?
I would buy my 1920 $20 in 64 thankyouverymuch and not think twice about it. >>
I would maintain that differences in the markets are not fundamental differences... ... except to the market.
that are put into ga ga high grade holders ms/pf 69 70 holders
and sold for many multpiles of their former selves when raw
the promoters/sellers of such plastic their clever words and excuses never to buy them back
are clever and maybe a blurry line of being legit
are not helping the hobby in the least bit let alone giving the buyers of such plastic rarities values for their money
<< <i>...
Grading companies are not the main cause of the price difference at the high end of the
grading scale for moderns or classics. The primary driving factor is demand and the inter-
net is the vehicle. Certainly grading companies have identified and segregated the grades
which fascilitate finding them but people were grading coins before the advent of TPG's
and if they go away, then they'll be grading them after. . >>
Perhaps you believe what you are writing, but I implore any new collectors reading to make their own informed decisions as to the validity (and what in my opinion is the absurdity) of the statement.
Grading companies, especially the PCGS registry has created demand where there was none. That's what good marketing does. Whether it be a high end retailer getting $4000 for a handbag that has $50 worth of materials and labor, or $4000 for a coin that might sell for $50 raw (and take 50 tries to get it back into the same holder if cracked out), it is the same game of marketing. If PCGS went away tomorrow that $4000 registry coin might go for $200 in the holder, or $50 raw again, because there is no longer a game to play. My opinion.
<< <i>The primary driving factor is demand... >>
Everything else is not necessary. Answer every question about the coin market (the monetary functions, at least) with "supply and demand" and you will rarely be wrong.
https://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/collectors-showcase/world-coins/one-coin-per-year-1600-2017/2422
<< <i>
Grading companies, especially the PCGS registry has created demand where there was none. That's what good marketing does. >>
Ikes were selling for up to $2,000 in 1985. PCGS began in 1986. You do the math.
<< <i>common available coins that are available close to gem and gem to superb gem ms/pf by the hundreds or thousands
or more!!
that are put into ga ga high grade holders ms/pf 69 70 holders >>
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>common available coins that are available close to gem and gem to superb gem ms/pf by the hundreds or thousands or more!!
that are put into ga ga high grade holders ms/pf 69 70 holders
and sold for many multpiles of their former selves when raw
the promoters/sellers of such plastic their clever words and excuses never to buy them back
are clever and maybe a blurry line of being legit
are not helping the hobby in the least bit let alone giving the buyers of such plastic rarities values for their money >>
I agree with Michael... I think.
Obscurum per obscurius
slam moderns they conveniently forget the rarities and the scarcities and maintain the
fiction that all moderns are common in just a little lower grade. one person has suggested
at least three times that the '83-P quarter is available for a song in choice unc and
I've told him each time that it's a $25 wholesale in MS-60. You can tell these guys
that something is a fact until you're blue in the face and they'll just simply ignore it
and come back with the exact same nonsense.
Maybe we should just throw in the towel and admit that no real coins have been made
since 1965. That the crap getting slabbed is being sold to fools by crooks and graded by
those who'd grade scat if it were accompanied by a check.
It's pretty obvious some minds are made up and facts will just confuse them.
Notice how much ignored my one way market thread is where Legend's is on the way to
1000 posts.
<< <i>We've listed dozens and dozens of rare moderns but every time someone wants to
slam moderns they conveniently forget the rarities and the scarcities and maintain the
fiction that all moderns are common in just a little lower grade. one person has suggested
at least three times that the '83-P quarter is available for a song in choice unc and
I've told him each time that it's a $25 wholesale in MS-60. You can tell these guys
that something is a fact until you're blue in the face and they'll just simply ignore it
and come back with the exact same nonsense.
Maybe we should just throw in the towel and admit that no real coins have been made
since 1965. That the crap getting slabbed is being sold to fools by crooks and graded by
those who'd grade scat if it were accompanied by a check.
It's pretty obvious some minds are made up and facts will just confuse them.
Notice how much ignored my one way market thread is where Legend's is on the way to
1000 posts. >>
I don't think rational collectors of classics will say that all moderns are throw-away coins. I think the point is that condition rarities are more thinly traded than absolutely rare coins thus more of a risk.
If there are only 100 known of a certain coin in all grades, the demand will remain more constant for it than a condition rarity that has AU's available in the thousands or tens of thousands. You can't go anywhere and pick up an 1873-CC silver dollar in any condition, but you can find lots of 1983-P quarters if grade isn't an issue. Even if it is, you can still find lower grade MS coins.
It's all a matter of the availability of substitutes.
Obscurum per obscurius
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As many grow older and more affluent they might go to the classics, or they may go to the TOP POP coins in what ever series that has caught their primary interest.
Last time I checked there are even people that collect sports cards and stamps.
Collecting is a desease and we all love it.
<< <i>
I don't think rational collectors of classics will say that all moderns are throw-away coins. I think the point is that condition rarities are more thinly traded than absolutely rare coins thus more of a risk.
If there are only 100 known of a certain coin in all grades, the demand will remain more constant for it than a condition rarity that has AU's available in the thousands or tens of thousands. You can't go anywhere and pick up an 1873-CC silver dollar in any condition, but you can find lots of 1983-P quarters if grade isn't an issue. Even if it is, you can still find lower grade MS coins.
It's all a matter of the availability of substitutes. >>
I'm in close agreement with most all of this. Even Michael probably would agree with this.
He has been told that there are no regular issue moderns in MS-69 or MS-70 at least a few
dozen times yet he still refers to such coins over and over as do some others who don't
much care for these coins.
The problem isn't that so many people believe all these coins are crap as it is that they say
it or imply it over and over and over even in threads where no one asked their damn opinion
on the subject. What would be your reaction if everytime a thread about your favoirite coin
came up there was post after p[ost calling that coin and everything like it nothing more than
crap and that all coins of that sort were common? I have no problem with the threads that are
started to highlight differences between classics and moderns even where they are designed
to trash moderns.
As has been said many times, no one is claiming the typical modern coin is rare. Many times
what is being said is simply that many of these coins exist in far lower numbers than most of
the old gaurd believes. These coins are often very little collected and the low price is indica-
tive of this low demand rather than a massive supply.
Yes, there are 400,000,000 '83-P quarters remaining in circulation. If this turns you off the is-
sue in any grade then by all means, don't collect it. There's no need and it would be foolish.
This hobby is about having fun and if you aren't going to enjoy owning this common coin then
don't buy it. But by the same token this coin is rare in high grade and no amount of jaw-boning
is going to change that fact. It's also quite scarce even in choice unc condition. In this case
quite scarce means a few thousand coins which is hardly scarce by classic standards, but then
this coin sells for about $30 in choice unc. Try to get a popular classic with that sort of scarcity
for $30. This is a $25 coin in MS-60. There are probably around 75,000 in this grade. No one
is claiming that this is a great condition rarity and that it's to the moon from here. I would main-
tain that a '50-D nickel (2,000,000+) achieved a price of $130 in today's money and that it's not
out of the realm of reason that the quarter could become as sought after as the nickel.
Now everyone will ignore this entire post and the points they know I'm trying to make and the
next time someone is talking about their latest find or sale some clown will pop up talking a-
bout wasting money on MS-70 moderns when you can't tell them from MS-69's. It won't mat-
ter what sort of coin is being discussed so long as it was minted after 1964.
next time someone is talking about their latest find or sale some clown will pop up talking a-
bout wasting money on MS-70 moderns when you can't tell them from MS-69's. It won't mat-
ter what sort of coin is being discussed so long as it was minted after 1964.
CK,
Getting a bit jaded, aren't we? Now, excuse me, while I go try to see if I can tell the difference between my 1982 quarters in MS-70 and those in MS-69.
<< <i>Now everyone will ignore this entire post and the points they know I'm trying to make and the
next time someone is talking about their latest find or sale some clown will pop up talking a-
bout wasting money on MS-70 moderns when you can't tell them from MS-69's. It won't mat-
ter what sort of coin is being discussed so long as it was minted after 1964.
CK,
Getting a bit jaded, aren't we? Now, excuse me, while I go try to see if I can tell the difference between my 1982 quarters in MS-70 and those in MS-69.
Modern crap.
Can you truly call something "conditionally rare" if there is a large pool of mid or high grade MS coins at one point lower? So if a coin is pop 1 at MS70 but there are hundreds at MS69 and its not worth grading at a lower grade, I think conditionally rare loses its meaning when talking about that coin.
Compare the 1884-s dollar.
This coin is easily found in circulated condition but is scarce in MS. PCGS has only graded 234 in MS, and that number may include resubmissions.
Go to ebay and you will find many circs for sale, raw and slabbed. In lower grades its a cull really not worth much more than melt.
AU 53 PGCS pop 540 price $200
MS 61 PCGS pop 67 price $6K to $7K.
MS64 NGC pop 12 with only 2 higher ( the PCGS pop is 13 with 3 higher) sold for over $116,000 last year in a Heritage auction.
That is conditionally rare.
There are many other examples of coins that are available in lower grades but only a few exist in mint state. Those are rare coins due to the qualatative difference between the MS coin and substitutes. For example, an MS 68 is a much closer substitute for an MS 69 than an AU 53 is for an MS 62 or 63. Yes, there are those AU58/MS62 sliders but those are a separate issue. Its all about the availabiltiy of substitutes and the law of diminishing returns.
I think this is what Doug Winter was getting at when he talked about having losing interest in a proof barber at the proof 67 level.
CG