Crossover cracking and regrading half grades.

gstarling

I was wondering what kind of success you all have had with cracking mid grade cards from other companies (BGS, GAI, SGC) and then crossing them over to PSA?

For example, say you could buy 10 GAI 8.5 cards. Without seeing them, how many would come back on average as an 8, how many a 9 and how many might be an outlier (7 or worse on the low side and maybe a 10 on the high side)?

mikeschmidt

GStarling - I would say that you would have a less than 10% chance of any GAI cards going up to the next higher increment at PSA.

A higher percentage for SGC to PSA, but not much.

Trained eyes are the best bet. You can't just buy a grade. There are low-grade 8s and high-grade 8s. There are some really nice 8.5s out there [specifically with SGC] that might very well cross over to PSA 9. But you should be able to tell yourself examining the card very closely with a loupe, etc. Blind cracking and resubmitting will leave you worse off much more often than otherwise.

RonBurgundy

It all depends on the card. There are reasons why an 8.5 is not a 9, but that said it could be closer to a 9 than an 8, and that's where the subjective element of PSA's grading comes into play. Read their standards - things such as eye appeal, etc. may be enough to bump up a card to a higher grade, and if your 8.5 is already sharp, the subjective element may get it to a 9.

So, study your card carefully and loupe it based on that. You should be able to tell whether it is closer to the lower grade or the higher grade. Several minutes of intense study can prevent disappointment when you get your submission results.

As for me, I have had GAI 6.5's cross to 7, and 8.5's cross to both 8 and 9. SGC 92's to 9. BVG has been all over the map. And always always always, crack them out first and submit them raw.




Stay classy,


Ron

Boopotts

<< <i>I was wondering what kind of success you all have had with cracking mid grade cards from other companies (BGS, GAI, SGC) and then crossing them over to PSA?

For example, say you could buy 10 GAI 8.5 cards. Without seeing them, how many would come back on average as an 8, how many a 9 and how many might be an outlier (7 or worse on the low side and maybe a 10 on the high side)? >>



LOL! These kinds of posts crack me up. Now I know you're just curious, but let's put it this way; anyone who knows the answer would have zero incentive to answer you honestly.

baseballfanatic

<< <i>

<< <i>I was wondering what kind of success you all have had with cracking mid grade cards from other companies (BGS, GAI, SGC) and then crossing them over to PSA?

For example, say you could buy 10 GAI 8.5 cards. Without seeing them, how many would come back on average as an 8, how many a 9 and how many might be an outlier (7 or worse on the low side and maybe a 10 on the high side)? >>



LOL! These kinds of posts crack me up. Now I know you're just curious, but let's put it this way; anyone who knows the answer would have zero incentive to answer you honestly. >>





My answer will soon be in book form appearing on info-mercials on Spike after the 3 Stooges and before the Girls Gone Wild tapes. It will be 39.95, but if you call now, I'll throw in the Complete Guide to Collecting Beanie Babies absolutely free......

jmbkb4

I've had outstanding success cracking out PSA 9's --> PSA 10.



P.S. And even some PSA 8's --> PSA 10 too!!!!!!!

poppie

<< <i>So, study your card carefully and loupe >>

What's a loupe?

poppie

I should have just looked on Ebay !!!!!! 2337 items found for louped on Ebay!

smallstocks

I have cracked out three vintage GAI cards. One, an 8.5 came back an 8. Another GAI 8 came back a PSA 8. A second GAI 8 came back "trimmed".

gstarling

<< <i>LOL! These kinds of posts crack me up. Now I know you're just curious, but let's put it this way; anyone who knows the answer would have zero incentive to answer you honestly. >>

I disagree about that. That's like saying someone would have 0 incentive to make free software, yet there is Open Office and AVG anti virus. Someone would have 0 incentive to coach a little league team their kid isn't on, etc.

There is an incentive, it's called helping others out and being cool. Not everyone on here is a dealer or someone trying to make a lot of money. Some of us are just collectors that are trying to complete a set (often times as cheaply as possible).

For instance, I had 0 incentive to share better ways to search on eBay or telling anyone about persistant eBay Pluck searches because that means more competition for me. Well, my incentive was 'maybe it'll help someone grab a card that will complete their collection they would have othewise missed'. Now, I'm as capitalistic as the next guy, but there's a lot to be said for helping your neighbor out. Maybe it's karma, maybe it's the whole reaping and sowing principle, maybe it's something else. I just think if you do nice things for people, people will in turn do nice things for you. That's incentive enough for me.

tkd7

I've crossed two Red Man cards from SGC 5.5 to PSA 6.
My only experience in crossing.

Knuckles

I've only done it once recently from SGC to PSA.. click here to see the cards if you haven't already they came out even-steven.

Boopotts

"There is an incentive, it's called helping others out and being cool. Not everyone on here is a dealer or someone trying to make a lot of money. Some of us are just collectors that are trying to complete a set (often times as cheaply as possible)."

What set are you collecting? Also, how does a % breakdown of crossover results help you in your quest to complete said set?

srs1a

Limited statistics, but I am 2 for 2 moving SGC-86's (7.5's) into PSA-8 holders (one was a crack-out, one was a x-over in the holder!). You need to be careful, though. My personal opinion is that SGC is very tough on corners...so, if the card is well centered, the corners may well be strong enough to move up half a notch in a PSA holder. If centering is the issue, forget about it.

gstarling

<< <i>"There is an incentive, it's called helping others out and being cool. Not everyone on here is a dealer or someone trying to make a lot of money. Some of us are just collectors that are trying to complete a set (often times as cheaply as possible)."

What set are you collecting? Also, how does a % breakdown of crossover results help you in your quest to complete said set? >>


I'm building the 51 Topps Redback set in PSA 9

A common card in PSA 9 from this era is $110 SMR. Where an 8 has an SMR of $50.

If I can get an average of 1 in 4 GAI 8.5s to cross to 9s then I could buy 4 at $65 each and break even [(3 '8s' @ $50 + 1 '9' @ $110)/4].
Then I can deduce from that that any 8.5 that I can buy for less than $65 results in a positive expected value or is "smart money" and anything over that has a negative expected value or "dumb money".

The way it helps me build my set is I can know if it's worth it to crack and resubmit these 8.5s or does it make sense to sit and wait for 9s to pop at an auction somewhere. Basically, knowing the % of crossover results allows me to allocate time and resources appropriately which in turn allows me to build the set as quickly and as cost effetively as possible.

gstarling

i'm going to take the plunge and send a couple 8.5s in. i'll report back what happens.

Bosox1976

I've found that about 50% of my SGC 86 & 92's move up a grade. The percentage increases greatly when you pick them up in person vs. ebay though (unless you can get a detailed scan front & back).

Don't forget back centering as SGC will include miscut backs even at 86 (I've bought a few).

GAI & BVG add extra risk as you may get a trimmed card - happens all of the time.

Old CSA is a crapshoot.

New CSA/Pro/Gem/KSA - don't waste your money.

earlycalguy

I am not sure how you can do this based on an 'average'. each card is what it is. the grade of one card is not based on the grade of the last one or the next one. if you are talking about a skill such as shooting foul shots then I think an average would apply. if someone shoots 75% from the line and they are 2 for 3 then odds are they are going to make their next shot. with cards each one is taken case by case and I don't think an average would apply.

Boopotts

<< <i>I am not sure how you can do this based on an 'average'. each card is what it is. the grade of one card is not based on the grade of the last one or the next one. if you are talking about a skill such as shooting foul shots then I think an average would apply. if someone shoots 75% from the line and they are 2 for 3 then odds are they are going to make their next shot. with cards each one is taken case by case and I don't think an average would apply. >>



You take the whole pool of GAI cards and figure what percentage of them would bump. Or, if you've cracked and submitted enough of them you have a pretty good idea of what percentage will cross over. It's like anything else-- some will have a 20% chance, some will have an 80% chance, but on the average they will cross 'x' amount of the time.

One thing to remember about a set like Red Backs is that if they're in a GAI holder and being sold by a dealer they're probably in that holder for a reason.
If you're buying from a part time collector who submits to GAI your crossover rate from 8.5 to 9 should exceed 25%.

Boopotts

<< <i> if someone shoots 75% from the line and they are 2 for 3 then odds are they are going to make their next shot. >>



This is partially incorrect. If they are a 75% free throw shooter the odds that they'll make the next shot is 75%, and this is independant of what has happened in previous trials. Nothing in the world of probability is ever 'due' to happen.

gstarling

averages always apply when you take a large enough sample. everything is math.

if on average 1:10 8.5s get bumped to a 9 then I know an uneducated card buyer can go buy 10 GAI 8.5s and reasonably expect to pop one 9.

Maybe they get lucky and get 2 or 3 9s. Maybe they miss entirely, but on average and over a large enough sample that is what will happen, and that is relevant. Sure a single card stands on it's own, but if you do it enough, the numbers will average out and that is very useful.

Now, if you're an exprienced collector and know a lot about grading then you can probably improve your odds significantly, but that doesn't mean knowing the average isn't useful to use as a baseline.

For instance, say I think I'm good at predicting grades and in the above example, I send in 10 GAI 8.5s. 3 come back as 9s. Now, if I didn't know the average was 1:10 (this is just an imaginary number for use as an example) I might be down on my eye skills. However, if I know the average is 1:10 and I was able to improve that to 3:10 then I'm beating the average at a good enough clip where it may be worth it to continue buying 8.5s - depending on the value of buying 9s and the resale of 8s.

Most of my logic in this thread, and in life in general is a combination of math and poker. Any randomly dealt hand (or graded 8.5 card) can have any number of outcomes. If I have 4 to a flush with 2 cards to come (in Hold 'em) I know that my odds of drawing out are about 25%. If it costs me $25 to stay in the pot, but the pot is $200 then I know that it makes sense for me to stay in the pot because while I'm going to lose $25 3 times, I'm going to win $200 once (+$125). While any single hand I could lose in the long run, playing correctly will make me a winner. And while any card can stand on it's own, cracking and resending large number of cards will inevitably move towards an average. If you're really good, your average will be better than my average, but your average is very relavant to whether or not it's a profitable strategy for you.

The same logic can be applied to a large sample of 8.5s. If it costs me $1000 for ten 8.5s and I know that on average, 9 will come out as 8s and have a resell of $75 and one will come out a 9 with a resell of $150 then I know I'm losing $17.50 per card in value. If however, I know that it's 50/50 then I'm going to be coming out ahead at a clip of $12.50/card.

Now, imagine, we're talking about a lot of cards. Say an entire 500 card set. Over the course of aquiring this set, I would save about $6K buying and regrading 8.5s as opposed to just buying 9s if I know my average is 50/50. Saving that kind of money is relevant to me.

gstarling

<< <i>

<< <i> if someone shoots 75% from the line and they are 2 for 3 then odds are they are going to make their next shot. >>



This is partially incorrect. If they are a 75% free throw shooter the odds that they'll make the next shot is 75%, and this is independant of what has happened in previous trials. Nothing in the world of probability is ever 'due' to happen. >>

know we're having fun. thanks for coming back to the thread. and the dealer thing makes a lot of sense. again, i appreciate the help, and anything i can do in the future for ya, let me know, gstarling@gmail.com