So, You Want to Know What's Hot?

DRUNNER

(Besides those pix Cameron uses in his sig line, that is.)

Ok . . . you are an average lurker or occasional poster, devoted collector and you might even be called knowledgeable in a couple of coin series. You enjoy the hobby but really like the thought of purchasing coins that might ride the market a bit higher than many widgets since you've tired of hole-filling. Maybe you want to condense a bit. You've got a bit of financial wiggle room but can't bring yourself to get out of that high 3-figure and low 4-figure comfort zone. What you would like to know is . . ."What is really hot out there in the market?" Not "What is the latest website/dealer/market maker pushing . . . but what really sells?" The answer . .

Cull and sell.

Fun to try. Revealing. Informative. Cuts through all the crap REALLY quickly! At any show . . . any level. Pick a "Box of Twenty" that you can release from your clutches . . . and try a spin around the bourse floor. It'll tell you . . .

1.) What dealers consider 'widgets'.
2.) What coins are currently 'hot'.
3.) How dealers grade, and how do you grade . . . irrespective of a major TPG.
4.) How good your 'eye' is. Do you have to foist the box on them or do they meet you at the door?
5.) The true buy-sell spread in the industry. No inference here . . . you just need to know what it is.
6.) What coins REALLY have a one-way market.

The caveats . . . yes, I collect for the love of it, the history, the thrill of the hunt. Yes, I fill holes. No, I don't have any agenda . . . I just have tried it a few times and I've gained immensely from the experience. It was also fun and helped me pare down a few things.

But, many I see through the hobby (via the ANA) aggressively try to build collections that will hold value, give or take a bit for the "pride of ownership" factor. So . . . would you like to know "What is Hot, when you buy?" See if anything in your "Box of Twenty" sells. If so, what was it? What made it sell? Grade? Eye appeal? Rarity? Do you want to focus more on those pieces in the future?

It'll arm you with more knowledge . . . .

Drunner
ANA Section 25 Rep

robertpr

Interesting theory. Have you tried it recently? What did you offer, what sold?

jdimmick

Couldnt have been said better!

Lots of truth here folks, try it. You will learn a great deal if you have not experienced both the buying & selling side of the fence.

Bear

This proves the rule, "Always sell some coins, periodically."

Such sales usually tell you all you need to know about the market

and you.

MrBreeze

I whole-heartedly support that statement. If you have never sold to a dealer, you haven't learned some of the most valuable lessons in this business(oops...hobby). I really look closer at the "sellable" aspects of a coin. That, in turn, has improved my knowledge and skill in picking quality coins for my collection. I find myself not buying a lot of what I was buying when I went with the ebb and flow of the market. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

roadrunner

One caveat to be aware of is not to give stuff away either. Collectors often become disenchanted with their purchases for the wrong reasons. And one rejection at the local coin shop or at a local show might cause you to underprice something by a big margin.
Before you pick out that box of 20 to lug around for offers you may want to get some opinions from trusted sources. It may save you $$ hundreds or $$ thousands in value.

One can still have a great eye, buy the right coins, but when it comes time to peddle box of 20 at the bourse, get picked clean on the underpriced coins and be left with the so-so ones. Happens all the time, even to the best of them.

roadrunner

cladking

It is imperative that collectors sell a coin from time to time. It's far easier to buy
at a good price in this hobby than to sell at a good price and some collectors are
very disappointed to find that there great buys weren't really all that great. Don't
throw in the towel if you get offers far below what you paid. It's not extremely un-
usual for dealers to make low-ball offers and if you offer a great coin to the wrong
dealer you can get an offer for a fraction of its value anyway.

Collectors need to know the market for several reasons. Eventually the coins have
to be sold by you or your heirs so it's best to leave some guidelines of how to do it.
Everyone wants to stretch their dollars as much as possible and it makes little sense
to overpay. Just knowing a little about the market will get dealers to offer most coins
for less.

A good way to get a general feel for less expensive and some higher priced coins is
to just look at the buy ads in the back of the coin papers. These tend to be coins
that are most actively selling (on the low end) and the base price at which they trade.
Most dealers expect solid quality for their offers but will accept lesser quality so long
as better quality is sufficient to compensate for it. Some expect top quality across
the board. None will pay advertised prices on obvious castoffs or generally poor qual-
ity. If you want to know aout higher priced coins many will quote a price or range if
you write.

DRUNNER

Robert . . . good question, and yes, I definitely do it. What propels me is the current show rotation in my area . . . I usually have about 3 months to buy raw then certify (slow boat) and see if I can hit enough to fund the next show purchases 3 months hence. I just try to limit my downside risk and focus on the series I know and can 'pick'. One or two high grades out of 10 and I'm OK. The others get sold in the 'box of 20' if they can't make my collection quality.

What I've noticed (and not too far off of the mainstream I see here daily) . . .

What sells . . .

1.) Better date stuff in all grades.
2.) Morgans, Indian cents, and type
3.) Eye appeal, eye appeal, eye appeal. White or toned, if it's fugly, you get to die with it.
4.) PCGS anything, but even better if it's PQ for the grade.

If you've got any chocolate brown circ. F-XF Indian from 1866-1878, they are gone. They seem more rare than the MS64RBs. Uncleaned and problem free type flies away. Ditto for eye appealing Morgans, and any nice toner in a PCGS holder.

Interesting notes . . .

1.) Toning (raw in particular) seems to be a one-way market on the bourse. It may sell well on the Bay, but on the floor, Godzilla meets his match, and it isn't pretty for the seller.
2.) High grade moderns just a notch below pop-tops make good skeet targets. Lincoln PCGS 69 DCAMs may be offered for $60, but no one buys at $20 (around here anyway).
3.) Cultivating one or two major dealers/buyers is a fortuitous prospect. I usually sell 80% of all I bring within the first 30 minutes of a show, purchased by one or two guys who know me and my particular tastes. Match your coins to the right dealers. I make a battle plan of exactly where the stuff gets offered.
4.) Esoteric coins and/or coins with limited collector base may be cool to you, but when it comes time to sell, there may not be anyone out there to take them off your hands (my NGC MS63RB 1960 D/D Small/Large Lincoln may have made the Redbook, but no one even looks at it). Demand drives the engine.

Roadrunner is certainly right . . . but getting picked over shows you exactly what I mean . . . the leftovers might tell you something. I set a basement price on each piece beyond which I will not sell. If I was lucky enough to cherry the piece and I'm into it a minimal amount, I will pass a bit of that on to one or two of those favorite dealers . . . in hopes (???) that I'll get treated right next time.

Perhaps some more observations on toning in another thread.

Enjoy the rest of a good evening!

Drunner

DRUNNER

Just a TTT . . . posted reply after the State Basketball game last night . . . last second shot by a good blue-collar kid won it.

Drunner

Bear

The rule of thum is that everything one collects is cold

and whatever we dont got is hot. This goes along with

the fact that many buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

fc

i see this no differently then 5 kids sitting on the curb trading
baseball cards. of course there will be a few cards everyone wants
and will trade strong for.

the majority of the stuff is simply "the rest".

AgMe

Hmmmm, I have the "permanent" collection, the "fun" collection and the various hoards... none of which is going anywhere...

Then again, I'm a collector and could care less what is hot, I only care about what I like.

~g