Silver at $10.31. unstoppable!
jeniffer007
Posts: 48
can silver hit $12.00 in a short run?
0
jeniffer007
Posts: 48
Comments
Not sure, but it might!
TorinoCobra71
Fridays tend to end on a downward trend with some profit taking so I'd expect to see it close the week at around $10 and maybe a bit less.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen with a fall back in prices and then another rise after that.
<< <i>How much silver is Birkeshire Hathaway sitting on? I'm not sure that there is much institutionally owned silver. Is there enough silver owned by "people" who may sell, that would affect the price significantly? >>
Warren wouldn't sell it if he had as much as the Hunt Bros, anyway. That is not and has never been his strategy.
He is not a profit taker.... He is a healthy business buyer. Watch out David, he might buy yours
<< <i>People who bought silver in the $4-5 an ounce range will be tempted to take some profits pretty soon.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen with a fall back in prices and then another rise after that. >>
I bought a lot at that range and then sold out near the top in early '04.
I've since bought back in as prices dropped and now I intend intend to go looooong.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
My point was not to attack Barrick, as I have no financial interest in what they do, but to show existing trading practices can result in unexpected consequences, much like the outsized COMEX silver short position. I wrote about gold "hedging" for years before these avoidable billions of dollars of losses occurred, just like I’ve written about the manipulative and dangerous level of silver short selling.
Another one of my prime contentions was recently confirmed. As long-time readers know, I have maintained that there is much more available above ground gold in the world than silver. I made this finding in the very first article I wrote for Investment Rarities, Inc. over five years ago http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-13-00.html
The confirmation came from the archenemy of higher silver prices, the Silver Users Association (SUA), in one of their petitions to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to kill the Silver ETF. The SUA offered research and documentation from the CPM Group showing that there was 4 times the amount of gold above ground (3 billion ounces) than silver (750 million ounces). The SUA was trying to show how much more disruptive a silver ETF would be than the gold ETFs.
While I would have preferred a citation from a different source than the SUA, I doubt that we will ever see anyone refute, with documentation, the assertion that silver is more rare than gold. Let me assure you – this is an important acknowledgement. Sure, the SUA only has its own self- interest in mind, but in promoting that interest, it is confirming a major unknown in the investing world, namely, just how rare silver has become.
It is just how unknown that silver is rarer than gold that makes this fact so powerful for silver investors. I think it is the most important long-term fact in silver. As it becomes more widely known in the years ahead, and it will, it is hard to underestimate the influence it will exert on the investors of the world.
Remember, nothing has to change in the physical realm in order for the force of the impact to be felt, just that more people have to become aware of a simple fact. In fact, not only does nothing have to change in the real world of physical commodities to establish the fact that silver is more rare than gold, but absolutely nothing can change in the decades ahead to change this fact. Let me restate that – never, or at least never in the lifetime of anyone reading these words today, will there ever be more silver above ground than gold.
I know that is an outrageous statement, but how could there ever be more silver than gold in the future? The only way that could possibly occur would be if the world began to produce giant annual mining surpluses of silver and continued those surpluses for decades. This, for a commodity that hasn’t produced a single annual mining surplus in the past 60 years. Even if the world produced an annual 100 million ounce surplus (a build in inventories) for 50 consecutive years, the amount of above ground silver would just equal above ground gold at that time. And it would take such extraordinary high silver prices for that to be accomplished, that I would love to be wrong in my assertion.
Now that it appears that my contention about silver’s rarity is being confirmed, I have heard the argument that rarity alone does not determine value. I don’t buy that, especially when it comes to a comparison of gold and silver. There are a number of reasons behind my thinking.
For one thing, at the very heart of gold’s perceived value is the very issue of rarity. Listen to the argument of any gold bug (many of which are good friends). Whether they look at gold as money, or insurance or the ultimate store of value, what they are really saying is gold is rare, that there isn’t much of it to go around. I emphatically agree; gold is rare. That is why it sells for hundreds of dollars per ounce. My only point is the simple fact that silver is more rare than gold. Draw your own conclusions.
Another point I would make that the comparison between gold and silver is not a loose one. If any two things ever went together in peoples’ minds, like love and marriage, horse and carriage, salt and pepper, it has to be gold and silver. No two other commodities hold, or have held, a closer pairing than gold and silver. They are natural and elemental companions, known to all people for all time.
The most important point I would make is that while these most natural of elemental companions are known to all people of our world, very few of the world’s citizens actually realize just which one is the most rare. If it were possible to poll everyone in the world, I’m sure that 99.9% would think that gold is more rare than silver. They would hold that opinion because gold is so much more expensive than silver and not for any other reason. Their opinion would be at odds with the facts. Therein lies the great opportunity for silver investors.
In a prior article (that I can’t even place, at this point) I remember writing about an exercise in which a typical second grade class was given the facts about two very similar commodities, without revealing the actual names of the two items. One was utilitarian, essential for modern technologies and living, the other was a luxury and non-essential. The essential one was being used up and there was less of it every day, the luxury item was accumulating. There was a lot less of the essential one, compared to the non-essential item. The class had to decide which one cost 60 times the price of the other.
I envision the world as that typical second grade class, about to be given a lesson, over the years to come, in which they will not only learn the true facts of silver, but will also try to put that lesson into practice, by buying the rare essential commodity.
Butler Silver Commentary
One thing that I have been watching for a few months is the gold/silver ratio. This has been ignored for quite a while, since it drastically deviated from the perceived historical 'norm' of 20:1. The ratio appears to be slowly dropping. For awhile, it was over 60; and is now touching around 55 or 56:1. Perhaps this is going to continue, and slowly return to the 'normal' 20:1.
But if the article is true that silver is rarer than silver.... the ratio may invert!
I would want it to be true because I am still holding hundreds of POUNDS of the silly stuff since the 70's.
If what you say, ( coinclector ), is a Fact, then it seems this " fact "
would cause extreme upheaval in the financial world.
Although the article does not include this silver, because of what they say is the added value due to fabrication, etc., in my opinion, is mis leading and thus skews the numbers. It may be true that the jewelry may not be turned in to be melted for awhile... but this is still silver that is available, already mined, and if prices get up to some level, whether $12 per ounce, or 20, or 50.... at some point, some of this jewelry will be turned in to be melted. So until you include ALL of the silver that is available.... those numbers do not tell the whole story.
After all.... LOTS of gold is wrapped up in jewelry also.... this won't be thrown in to be melted right away either. So if we are going to compare.... let's compare equally and not just pick and chose.
But with that being said... I am very bullish on silver.... and it is STILL rare when given the demand for it, and the yearly shortfalls, etc. The mechanism is definitely in place for potentially hugh gains yet to come.
<< <i>Silver at $10.31. unstoppable! >>
Oh it's stoppable alright, very stoppable. All I would have to do is buy a few hundred ounces of the stuff and mark my words...it'll drop like a rock LOL Worry not though, I'm not buying
<< <i>coynclecter, I sure have a tough time believing that gold is more common than silver! But..... that notion that gold is the more rarer has been ingrained for so many years... and as pointed out, is probably based on the price more than any other knowledge on my part.
One thing that I have been watching for a few months is the gold/silver ratio. This has been ignored for quite a while, since it drastically deviated from the perceived historical 'norm' of 20:1. The ratio appears to be slowly dropping. For awhile, it was over 60; and is now touching around 55 or 56:1. Perhaps this is going to continue, and slowly return to the 'normal' 20:1.
But if the article is true that silver is rarer than silver.... the ratio may invert! >>
It's acting like it's headed to 40: 1 in the nearer term. After that it will take more change
in psychology to move in either direction.
750 million ounces as an above ground supply is an extremely low estimate. This may well
represent all the silver in all the government and corporate stockpiles but there are many
small hoardes in museums and private hands. Much of this silver would become available
were the price to rise sufficiently.
Silver has simply been consumed more quickly than it has been produced for many decades.
This element is one of the most fascinating of all elements because it's structure is most
unusual. Its unique structure and electrical properties are likely to mean a growing list of
high tech applications in the future. Many applications are not responsive to higher prices.
Even if silver were to increase many fold it would have little impact on demand because there
is very little silver in the individual product.
Very little gold is lost every year and more is mined. More silver is mined but it's all ear-marked
for destruction and above ground supplies shrink to make up the short fall. Eventually more
mining must occur and then we'll see if there really is plenty more in the ground. But in the
mean time watch for increased consumption and eventually higher prices.