That is a good article. I wrote a white paper once taking a similar approach in capitalizing the Morgan dollar market. The author, Mike De Falco, is a really nice guy who sold me one of the key PLs in my set.
Alas, though, we continue to wait for PL/DMPL dollars to trend to their fair valuations. I still maintain, despite recent years' gains, they are overall vastly undervalued. Hope they come up before my set goes to market.
<< <i>Some of the article is right out of Wayne Miller's Morgan and Peace dollar book. >>
Merc: And your point is? If you care to review the ACKNOWLEGEMENTS (page xi) in THE MORGAN AND PEACE DOLLAR TEXTBOOK you will discover that I am listed as a contributor. If anything sounds vaguely familiar it's probably due to the fact that I collaborated on that particular topic (i.e., the three major types of deep mirror prooflike dollars). In truth, my article came from my brain and is a result of the fact that I possess more than THIRTY-THREE years experience buying, selling and studying DMPL dollars -- and was one of the early pioneers in this area of numismatics. If you dig some more through the Wayne's book you will also find my name mentioned a few more times. Moreover, I (all by myself) authored another article on DMPL dollars for the September 1997 issue of the COIN DEALER newsletter MONTHLY SUPPLEMENT, in addition to numerous other articles for that publication beginning in 1984 with an piece titled SILVER COMMEMS, The Changing Of The Guard. Oh, I forgot to mention that I wrote the monthly newsletter MARKETWISE from 1981 through 1987, was a MAJOR contributor (actually I wrote more pages than anyone else) to Dr. Gary North's Rare Coin Investment Manual as well as the author of THE COINGAME, Playing For Profits -- Not Promises (again, all of this accomplished using my own brain). Hopefully, this will assure you that I am more than capable of authoring an original article pertaining to DMPL dollars. If not, I can provide more references, LOTS MORE REFERENCES!!!
I find that studying the pop reports together with the price guides leads one to conclude that these coins (pl and dmpl Morgans) are very rare and are undervalued.
Mike, I liked your analysis, but I wish it included discussion of other grades, since ms65 dmpls are virtually non-existent in the market for many dates, and cost prohibitive, but your general ideas hold up well for 65pls, 64dmpls, etc.
Let me throw some facts out re: pls.
PCGS has graded approximately 10,327 Morgans in ms65pl. More than 50+% of those fall into just 3 years, the `79-s, the `80-s and the `81-s.
6 more years account for another 20+%, being the `82-cc, `82-s, `83-cc, `84-cc, `87 and `04-o.
10 more years account for nearly another 15%, being the `78-s, `80-cc, `81-cc, `83-o, `84-o, `85, `85-cc, `85-o, `97-s, `98-o.
So, the above-listed 19 years account for approximately 88% of the Morgan in ms65pl.
Then, there is the wild card -- coins cracked out and resubmitted, and thus duplicated in the population census. How many coins that represents is anyone's guess. I would not be surprised if that number is in the hundreds. If it was, for example, 500, then that would account for approximately another 5% of the pl coins.
Doing the substraction of the 19 years (88%) and the crack-outs (5%), that leaves approximately only 7% of the 65pl coins across approximately 80 different dates and mint marks. It you used straight math, which doesn't apply but does help gives some perspective, 7% would be approximately 721 coins, so that would leave about 9 examples for each of the 80 remaining varieties. Just looking at the 80 examples in 1888-o in 65pl indicates how skewed the 9 average is, since 8 years were have to have 0 examples.
Just food for thought.
The above analysis is roughly the same with regard to dmpls, with the percentages cut in half
I fully intend to cover DMPL's in other grades (as well as PL's) in future articles. I'll probably tackle MS66 and MS67 DMPL's (from a pricing perspective) within the next couple of months because there's so little relevant information available in that regard. Other topics that are forthcoming will be a commentary on the Battle Creek coins and the upper end toned dollar market in general, a date-by-date analysis of both the Peace dollars and Oregon Trail half dollar series (not necessarily in that order) and whatever else happens to pop into my head. I really enjoy writing and plan to kick it into high gear again.
Mike, Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge on these subjects with the rest of us. I could read articles like these all day long. I love to read but hate to right, so god bless for people like you who love to put pen to paper.
Comments
DMPL market. It does appear to have opportunities for
astute collectors. A caveat however. Recently PCGS has
appeared to have tightened its criterea for the DMPL designation.
This is a long overdue improvement abd they are to be
complemented for doing so.
The problem is that now the collector is faced with two
catagories of DMPL PCGS Morgan Dollars. The old 6+ inch
reflective fields and the new 8 inch and better reflective fields.
When buyingDMPL Morgans, be sure , if you are paying
top dollar for a specimen, that it is a full 8 inches or more
in reflectivity. Anything less is actually a PL only, by the new standards.
This would advise that novices as well as advanced collectors
utilize the knowledge and skills of credable specialist dealers,
to advise them on their purchases. Really top of the line DMPLs are getting
scarcer by the day, and the specialist dealers seem to know the nooks
and crannies that hide the real gems.Certainly, Mike DeFalco is one of
those old time specialists.
As Mikey always says, "I'M older then dirt"
Camelot
Camelot
<< <i>This is truly a worthwhile and very timely article on the
DMPL market. It does appear to have opportunities for
astute collectors. A caveat however. Recently PCGS has
appeared to have tightened its criterea for the DMPL designation.
This is a long overdue improvement abd they are to be
complemented for doing so.
The problem is that now the collector is faced with two
catagories of DMPL PCGS Morgan Dollars. The old 6+ inch
reflective fields and the new 8 inch and better reflective fields.
When buyingDMPL Morgans, be sure , if you are paying
top dollar for a specimen, that it is a full 8 inches or more
in reflectivity. Anything less is actually a PL only, by the new standards.
This would advise that novices as well as advanced collectors
utilize the knowledge and skills of credable specialist dealers,
to advise them on their purchases. Really top of the line DMPLs are getting
scarcer by the day, and the specialist dealers seem to know the nooks
and crannies that hide the real gems.Certainly, Mike DeFalco is one of
those old time specialists.
As Mikey always says, "I'M older then dirt" >>
Thanks for the kind words Bear -- and yes, I am older than dirt!!! REALLY!!!
Mikey
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
FrederickCoinClub
Alas, though, we continue to wait for PL/DMPL dollars to trend to their fair valuations. I still maintain, despite recent years' gains, they are overall vastly undervalued. Hope they come up before my set goes to market.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>Some of the article is right out of Wayne Miller's Morgan and Peace dollar book. >>
Merc: And your point is? If you care to review the ACKNOWLEGEMENTS (page xi) in THE MORGAN AND PEACE DOLLAR TEXTBOOK you will discover that I am listed as a contributor. If anything sounds vaguely familiar it's probably due to the fact that I collaborated on that particular topic (i.e., the three major types of deep mirror prooflike dollars). In truth, my article came from my brain and is a result of the fact that I possess more than THIRTY-THREE years experience buying, selling and studying DMPL dollars -- and was one of the early pioneers in this area of numismatics. If you dig some more through the Wayne's book you will also find my name mentioned a few more times. Moreover, I (all by myself) authored another article on DMPL dollars for the September 1997 issue of the COIN DEALER newsletter MONTHLY SUPPLEMENT, in addition to numerous other articles for that publication beginning in 1984 with an piece titled SILVER COMMEMS, The Changing Of The Guard. Oh, I forgot to mention that I wrote the monthly newsletter MARKETWISE from 1981 through 1987, was a MAJOR contributor (actually I wrote more pages than anyone else) to Dr. Gary North's Rare Coin Investment Manual as well as the author of THE COINGAME, Playing For Profits -- Not Promises (again, all of this accomplished using my own brain). Hopefully, this will assure you that I am more than capable of authoring an original article pertaining to DMPL dollars. If not, I can provide more references, LOTS MORE REFERENCES!!!
Mike De Falco
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
Chill out ol' man!!!! Your friend the grump. Heh
Mikey
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
Mike, I liked your analysis, but I wish it included discussion of other grades, since ms65 dmpls are virtually non-existent in the market for many dates, and cost prohibitive, but your general ideas hold up well for 65pls, 64dmpls, etc.
Let me throw some facts out re: pls.
PCGS has graded approximately 10,327 Morgans in ms65pl. More than 50+% of those fall into just 3 years, the `79-s, the `80-s and the `81-s.
6 more years account for another 20+%, being the `82-cc, `82-s, `83-cc, `84-cc, `87 and `04-o.
10 more years account for nearly another 15%, being the `78-s, `80-cc, `81-cc, `83-o, `84-o, `85, `85-cc, `85-o, `97-s, `98-o.
So, the above-listed 19 years account for approximately 88% of the Morgan in ms65pl.
Then, there is the wild card -- coins cracked out and resubmitted, and thus duplicated in the population census. How many coins that represents is anyone's guess. I would not be surprised if that number is in the hundreds. If it was, for example, 500, then that would account for approximately another 5% of the pl coins.
Doing the substraction of the 19 years (88%) and the crack-outs (5%), that leaves approximately only 7% of the 65pl coins across approximately 80 different dates and mint marks. It you used straight math, which doesn't apply but does help gives some perspective, 7% would be approximately 721 coins, so that would leave about 9 examples for each of the 80 remaining varieties. Just looking at the 80 examples in 1888-o in 65pl indicates how skewed the 9 average is, since 8 years were have to have 0 examples.
Just food for thought.
The above analysis is roughly the same with regard to dmpls, with the percentages cut in half
Camelot
I fully intend to cover DMPL's in other grades (as well as PL's) in future articles. I'll probably tackle MS66 and MS67 DMPL's (from a pricing perspective) within the next couple of months because there's so little relevant information available in that regard. Other topics that are forthcoming will be a commentary on the Battle Creek coins and the upper end toned dollar market in general, a date-by-date analysis of both the Peace dollars and Oregon Trail half dollar series (not necessarily in that order) and whatever else happens to pop into my head. I really enjoy writing and plan to kick it into high gear again.
Mike
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
<< <i>If it wasnt for Mrs Coingame, he would be even grumpier. >>
Bear, ain't that the truth!!! There's nothing like a good woman to keep you happy and on track (and I'm fortunate enough to have one).
Mikey
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
I could read articles like these all day long. I love to read but hate to right, so god bless for people like
you who love to put pen to paper.
Keep em coming , I'm sure others feel as I do
TD
Rainbow Stars
Mikey
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***