Options
Has anyone compared the difference in grading service grades to the difference in markey prices?
Malikovski
Posts: 55
I know there have been some studies of how the differenent grading companies grade the same coin (with very small sample sizes, it should be noted), and general conclusions about the differences drawn.
I know from browsing eBay for deals that slabed coins of the same grade from different services will vary HUGELY, even comparing coins that, to me at least, have comparable eye appeal. I am not talking about the totally sketchy companies, I mean PCGS vs. NTC vs. ANACS and so on.
Has anyone compared the differential in grading with the differential in prices to see if they line up?
For example, I picked up a NTC MS65 Morgan for less than the going price in the same venue of an PCGS MS63. From the studies I have read, NTC grades much easier than PCGS, but let's say I bought ten NTC coins at that rate and had them regraded by PCGS. Would ALL of them grade two grades lower or more (I lose), or might some cross over at 64 and 65 (I win)? If yes, there is a net gain to be made.
The slab cracking game sounds waaaaaaaaay too risky for me, the the price differential in slabbed coins seems overly based on small sample studies. There's no way to establish a meaningful trend with fifteen coins (size of the study I read).
I know from browsing eBay for deals that slabed coins of the same grade from different services will vary HUGELY, even comparing coins that, to me at least, have comparable eye appeal. I am not talking about the totally sketchy companies, I mean PCGS vs. NTC vs. ANACS and so on.
Has anyone compared the differential in grading with the differential in prices to see if they line up?
For example, I picked up a NTC MS65 Morgan for less than the going price in the same venue of an PCGS MS63. From the studies I have read, NTC grades much easier than PCGS, but let's say I bought ten NTC coins at that rate and had them regraded by PCGS. Would ALL of them grade two grades lower or more (I lose), or might some cross over at 64 and 65 (I win)? If yes, there is a net gain to be made.
The slab cracking game sounds waaaaaaaaay too risky for me, the the price differential in slabbed coins seems overly based on small sample studies. There's no way to establish a meaningful trend with fifteen coins (size of the study I read).
0
Comments
Hopefully not NTC
<< <i>NTC or NGC?
Hopefully not NTC >>
Opps. I meant NGC. Big difference there.
However, this leads for some real bargains for accurately graded NGC coins. Buy the coin not the plastic.
<< <i>Buy the coin not the plastic. >>
That's what I tried to do. It said MS65, it looked good, and it was, with shipping and all, about 45% what PCGS is selling for. How encouraging...
Tons of stuff will cross in holder,but mostly lower grade coins.
The x in holder ratio has been very low over the last year for higher grade stuff.
The crack out ratio grade is likely much better
<< <i>please post a pic! >>
Forgetting my manners...here are some pics, not good though. I will take better once I have them in hand. Both of these graded 65 by non PCGS services:
1884 O
1883
Do I know enough to play any game like this? No, certainly not, but I'd rather learn by doing and make my own mistakes. My rule of thumb has been assume everything is two grades overgraded and only pay half book of the lower grade. I figure I can't get burned too badly shopping that way!
Not to mention these coins are so liquid, the ones I have gotten I that I didn't like, I turned around and sold with a slight net gain. One of my old eBay tricks is to look for good items that are badly photographed. Relist with a good photo and it usually sells for more...
<< <i>For example, I picked up a NTC MS65 Morgan for less than the going price in the same venue of an PCGS MS63. From the studies I have read, NTC grades much easier than PCGS, but let's say I bought ten NTC coins at that rate and had them regraded by PCGS. Would ALL of them grade two grades lower or more (I lose), or might some cross over at 64 and 65 (I win)? If yes, there is a net gain to be made. >>
The problem might be with the ones that DON'T grade!
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
<< <i>
The problem might be with the ones that DON'T grade!
Yes, you can't exactly put them back in the shattered old holder, now can you? That's why the crossover option was more appealing, but perhaps the prejudice factor is too high, if the crackout ratio is so much higher than crossover...
X in holder with my early coins in lower grades like VF30 is 100 %
crackouts is 50 %
If I were you, I would keep them in the NGC holders, as they are likely worth just as much as in PCGS holders, so all you would be doing is spending money on grading. Exceptions would be if you thought one or both might grade 66 or higher at PCGS, or if you had a specific reason for wanting PCGS holders (registry set, or you like the "look" better).
<< <i>they appear to be solid for the grade. nice pick ups if they were truly at your suggested prices. >>
Won't know if they really pass muster until they come in the mail, but prices were good (I think)--the 1884 was $46, the 1883 was $89. Trend for 1883 is $200, for the other is $160. Probably should have let the 1883 go...
I look at the trend price as a rough guide, but I also look at eBay's 60 day past auction history to figure out the high and low paid for a given coin in a given grade by a given grading service, to make sure that the market agrees with the trend, more or less. There's enough volume that I can usually get a good feeling for the spread.
If it's a fraction of trend and on the low end of the market, I figure I'm safe-ish. Who knows, I am so new at this--I might have bought a couple lumps of lead sealed in plastic...
<< <i>My x in holder average on high grade coins is ZERO for forever.
X in holder with my early coins in lower grades like VF30 is 100 %
crackouts is 50 % >>
Hmm...I suddenly feel completely disinclined to try crossing anything over!
Is that 50% cracked out coming back same grade?
Just as a general comment- I don't think you can apply statistics, mathematics or economic theory to explain, understand or draw conclusions about numismatic grading services. The bottom line is that you need to learn how to grade the series or type of coin that you like. Otherwise, it will be no different than playing bingo.
<< <i>The bottom line is that you need to learn how to grade the series or type of coin that you like. Otherwise, it will be no different than playing bingo. >>
I'm trying...long road, though.
I believe both of these were NGC, but there are so many combinations of N, G, C, and S, I could be wrong. When I get my hands on the actual coins I'll post some large photos and details from the auction and my purchase can be held up for praise or laughter. Both graded 65, and I thought they looked great, especially the 1883.