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How do you price the nicest MS 66, when there have been no 67's graded?
TahoeDale
Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭
The above is just an example. It could be one of only 10 MS 65 Red lincoln cents, but it is the best one you have ever viewed.
Let's assume that PCGS is not going to grade a 67 in the date, such as the 12-S lib nickel. They have graded 8 in MS 66( may be some duplicates graded). You find the one that is better than you could imagine, with all the details and luster you would want. Pricing for the coin in 65 is $7000, and 15,000 in 66. How much is the best 66 worth?
There is no price data for this coin in 67, and the market is bullish.
17,500?
20,000?
25,000?
35,000?
What else would you want to know, about the coin and the series, before you could be satisfied with your offering price?
Edit: I do not own the above coin, and am not an agent for the owner
Let's assume that PCGS is not going to grade a 67 in the date, such as the 12-S lib nickel. They have graded 8 in MS 66( may be some duplicates graded). You find the one that is better than you could imagine, with all the details and luster you would want. Pricing for the coin in 65 is $7000, and 15,000 in 66. How much is the best 66 worth?
There is no price data for this coin in 67, and the market is bullish.
17,500?
20,000?
25,000?
35,000?
What else would you want to know, about the coin and the series, before you could be satisfied with your offering price?
Edit: I do not own the above coin, and am not an agent for the owner
TahoeDale
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Dale,
Good question. I will give one real life example. I believe I own the finest 66RD Lincoln of a particular date and mint. I don't want to say which date and mint because it doesn't matter for this rhetorical question and if I do I am sure Stewart will tell me I'm full of sh*t. Anyway, the coin has been tried for 67 (once) and didn't make it. I honestly think it is a really nice 66 and only tried for 67 just to see what would happen. It is a pop 15 coin and I have seen a vast majority of the others. The average 66RD of this date and mint will run around 10K. I paid $18k for mine and I'd probably do it again.
So, for your scenario, my guess would be $25,000. Not only does the coin have to talk to you, it has to be screaming.
Jack
What is the appropriate price for the best 1912-S in the NGC 67 holder? There have been no 67's graded by either service, and no pricing.
As Bruce Scher found out, The best looking Proof 68 Cam or deep cam Barber half might bring over 30,000, whereas a common(?) 68 might go for as little as 10,000, or under.
So I believe it is likely that the best 12-S nickel, that is all there, might be double or triple the current market pricing. That's even assuming it will never be a PCGS 67.
Jack- I can't believe that LMS would say anything ugly about someone else's red lincoln, esp. one of yours. He is becoming known as the Compassionate collector, just like Bush as the Compassionate President.
Why, whatever the market will bear of course!
<< <i>You find the one that is better than you could imagine, with all the details and luster you would want. Pricing for the coin in 65 is $7000, and 15,000 in 66. How much is the best 66 worth?...
So I believe it is likely that the best 12-S nickel, that is all there, might be double or triple the current market pricing. That's even assuming it will never be a PCGS 67. >>
Perhaps that might happen in a perfectly efficient market, but we're not close to that.
Carrying on with the general rules that prices double per grade, a 67 is worth about $30,000. The coin is not worth $30,000 because you're telling me that it is not a 67.
If it is a 66+, I'd pay a premium, maybe $17,500. If I'd seen some of the other 7 coins in the grade, and they were low end and unappealing, I'd pay more, maybe $20,000. I wouldn't leave it to my imagination to go beyond that price.
Let's assume you are talking about Stewart's 12-S in 66. The price is simply what would be required to get him to sell it, and assumes that the best buyer (you?) would be willing to pay it. Of course, there is no quantitative way to come to a "right" number as it is a one of a kind piece. Even if there were a 67 graded, that may not tell you anything about the correct value of this piece. I assume that you have already had the discussion with Stewart. Since you don't yet own it (do you?), presumably the price he named is more than you offered to pay. The current value is probably somewhere between your number and his. So, you or Stewart are probably the only ones who could possibly answer the question you posed. While I don't expect either of you to do it, would either or you care to enlighten the rest of us? If I had to guess, I would say you offered $20K to $25K, but that he wanted something like $50K. Frankly, if this piece is what you say it is, then it is either the king or at least the queen of mint state liberty nickles. In that case the $50K number (if that's what it is) makes sense.
Cheers
Greg
You are close to what I was trying to examine--- what premium do you pay for the finest known, where there are several of the same grade, but this one is the best of the lot.
And I also agree, that there is little difference, if there is a 67. As long as the 66 is still the nicest coin for the date.
Do you think the multiple would apply to other than key dates? Like the best 1887, or 1895? I would think it might, for the right coin.
My set is being sold, and I do not plan to buy Stewart's 12-S. But I would have, up to a year ago. It is one of the finest MS 66 Lib nickels I have ever viewed.
And I am sure LMS would have been reasonable
Dale,
Two points. First, if you can figure out how to "crack" Stewart, let me know. Been down that road.
Second, as I illustrated in my previous post I've got the finest 66 with no 67's as far as I'm concerned. My coin has been tried for 67 (just out of curiosity). It is at nearly the same level as you are talking about. Most of the 66's sell for around 8-10K and I paid roughly double that (18K). I think that's what you are talking about.
Jack