Mercury Dime Series: Discussion on where it is today. Predictions for the future.
oreville
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mercurydimeguy said in another thread:
<< So, this perhaps helps to rationlize the dynamics of the Merc market -- very few collectors who actually have means to build a set. And others don't dabble in Mercs other than 16-D, 21-P and D, because people who don't do Mercs don't understand the rarity of a 19-S or D, or 26-S, or 23-S or 24-S in Gem 65FB...they look at the price of a 24-S in 65FB and say, S**T, I can buy a 62FB-63FB 16D for the same money. >>
I disagree, as far as the 1921-P and 1921-D dime. I believe they have been supplanted by the 1942/1 and 1945-P in FB.
My own experience may be illuminating. After I completed my 1920- 1945 BU mercury dime set in the raw back in the 1960's and 1970's which excluded the 1916-1919 era and the 1942/1 overdate, I took a breather from collecting mercs until 1995. At such time, I decided to buy the slabbed 1916-D in 67FB, 1942/1 in 65NB and 1945-P in 67FB only. Why? First of all, I had barely enough money to buy all the other dimes or just buy the famed trio I really wanted but not enough money for both. I wanted only the famous mercury dimes that not only were the key mercury dimes but also famous coins in their own right regardless of whether the person owning the coin was a mercury dime collector or not. I figured, if I was going to spend that much money (even in 1995) I did not want to risk myself financially without the double protection of acquiring a coin that was attractive to even non mercury dime collectors.
Furthermore, I went on a rampage and have nearly completed a grading set of 1945-P mercury dimes in FB which had eluded me for over 25 years. I just love those 1945-P dimes in FB. Yet the 1942/1 dime with all the fame on the obverse of the coin makes the FB designation totally unimportant to me. I bought my 1942/1 when it was a top pop in NB back in the mid 1990's. Based on what I see in MS-66 NB nowadays, this coin will upgrade to 66 and possibly even 67.
Quite frankly, mercury dimes are sleeping right now as a set. Collectors are falling all over themselves for the lincoln cents and to a lesser extent, the washington quarters which both were comatose prior to 1999. Mercury dimes, except for the later 1941-1945 era had been strong in the 1997-2003 era and quite frankly, desperately needed a breather.
I have noted that for the past 40 years, that no more than two or three 20th century sets are ever "hot" at the same time. Think about it. I pleaded with a well known collector NOT to sell his lincoln cents when he did a few years back to go into another set. He did not listen to me and later admitted that he should have.
The fact that the later 1936-1945 common/type mercury dimes have fallen so much in price in FB since 2002-2003 may ultimately be the most bullish sign for the mercury dime set in the coming years. Up to a few years ago, pop top and near pop top mercury dimes in FB were simply too expensive for the starting collector to get into mercury dimes vis a vis cents, nickels, and quarters. Only the walking liberty halves were more expensive to get into at the time. However, since then things have changed. Now, lincoln cents have become the #1 20th century set to collect, followed by the washington quarters and the walking liberty halves which have both cooled off a bit as well.
So why is the price drop in mercury dime common/type coins bullish for the mercury dime series? Young collectors will once again see this as an pretty as well as attractively priced series to get into even in FB in the next few years. The lincoln cents, buffalo nickels, washington quarters and liberty walking halves have gotten too "pricey" in relation to the mercury dimes. These newer collectors will be the "seed" of the newer generation of a few "needed" collectors that will eventually blossom into full blown mercury dime collectors. It will take another 2-3 years but that time is coming. In essence, the mercury dime series is looking more and more like the Morgan silver dollar series back in the very early 1970's!!
Just some of my thoughts.
<< So, this perhaps helps to rationlize the dynamics of the Merc market -- very few collectors who actually have means to build a set. And others don't dabble in Mercs other than 16-D, 21-P and D, because people who don't do Mercs don't understand the rarity of a 19-S or D, or 26-S, or 23-S or 24-S in Gem 65FB...they look at the price of a 24-S in 65FB and say, S**T, I can buy a 62FB-63FB 16D for the same money. >>
I disagree, as far as the 1921-P and 1921-D dime. I believe they have been supplanted by the 1942/1 and 1945-P in FB.
My own experience may be illuminating. After I completed my 1920- 1945 BU mercury dime set in the raw back in the 1960's and 1970's which excluded the 1916-1919 era and the 1942/1 overdate, I took a breather from collecting mercs until 1995. At such time, I decided to buy the slabbed 1916-D in 67FB, 1942/1 in 65NB and 1945-P in 67FB only. Why? First of all, I had barely enough money to buy all the other dimes or just buy the famed trio I really wanted but not enough money for both. I wanted only the famous mercury dimes that not only were the key mercury dimes but also famous coins in their own right regardless of whether the person owning the coin was a mercury dime collector or not. I figured, if I was going to spend that much money (even in 1995) I did not want to risk myself financially without the double protection of acquiring a coin that was attractive to even non mercury dime collectors.
Furthermore, I went on a rampage and have nearly completed a grading set of 1945-P mercury dimes in FB which had eluded me for over 25 years. I just love those 1945-P dimes in FB. Yet the 1942/1 dime with all the fame on the obverse of the coin makes the FB designation totally unimportant to me. I bought my 1942/1 when it was a top pop in NB back in the mid 1990's. Based on what I see in MS-66 NB nowadays, this coin will upgrade to 66 and possibly even 67.
Quite frankly, mercury dimes are sleeping right now as a set. Collectors are falling all over themselves for the lincoln cents and to a lesser extent, the washington quarters which both were comatose prior to 1999. Mercury dimes, except for the later 1941-1945 era had been strong in the 1997-2003 era and quite frankly, desperately needed a breather.
I have noted that for the past 40 years, that no more than two or three 20th century sets are ever "hot" at the same time. Think about it. I pleaded with a well known collector NOT to sell his lincoln cents when he did a few years back to go into another set. He did not listen to me and later admitted that he should have.
The fact that the later 1936-1945 common/type mercury dimes have fallen so much in price in FB since 2002-2003 may ultimately be the most bullish sign for the mercury dime set in the coming years. Up to a few years ago, pop top and near pop top mercury dimes in FB were simply too expensive for the starting collector to get into mercury dimes vis a vis cents, nickels, and quarters. Only the walking liberty halves were more expensive to get into at the time. However, since then things have changed. Now, lincoln cents have become the #1 20th century set to collect, followed by the washington quarters and the walking liberty halves which have both cooled off a bit as well.
So why is the price drop in mercury dime common/type coins bullish for the mercury dime series? Young collectors will once again see this as an pretty as well as attractively priced series to get into even in FB in the next few years. The lincoln cents, buffalo nickels, washington quarters and liberty walking halves have gotten too "pricey" in relation to the mercury dimes. These newer collectors will be the "seed" of the newer generation of a few "needed" collectors that will eventually blossom into full blown mercury dime collectors. It will take another 2-3 years but that time is coming. In essence, the mercury dime series is looking more and more like the Morgan silver dollar series back in the very early 1970's!!
Just some of my thoughts.
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Comments
The only prediction that will be put forth is that many people liked the series in the past and probably the series will pick up somemore diehard collectors from the newer influx of collectors that have entered the hobby in this spike of collecting popularity.
Ken
You would still ignore the FB and save your money? The spread is significantly much narrower than in other keys/semi-keys.
Long term the coins may get more popular, but don't count on it. The keys and semi keys will always be popular due to the smaller mintages.
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
You would still ignore the FB and save your money? The spread is significantly much narrower than in other keys/semi-keys.
From my limited exposure to Mercs, it seems to me that it's far tougher to find a 16-D without full bands than with them. But I think I'd probably choose the same as for all but the inexpensive dates - if I had three coins of the exact same eye appeal, I'd take the 'just missed FB' coin and save the FB premium money for other coins.
<< <i>This series will never get the respect they deserve, because of the small size. It is interesting to see one of the best designed coins of the USA, attact the small percentage of collectors when compared to other series. >>
True that larger coins are generally more popular, except cents. But I wonder what effect the FB factor has in dissuading collectors. The FB premium is large on many dates, and the strike designation factor makes non-FB coins "orphans" when it comes time to resll.
Maybe TDN can assemble the worlds' prettiest set of non-FB's and turn the tide against the strike designation.
CG
A good example of the late date history of values follows below.
1945-s MS66FB mercury dime (my estimated value each year)
1976/79 increased every year from about $15
1980/81 hit high of 305
1982/88 lost data (on hardcopy somewhere)
1989 200
1990 140
1991 121
1992 120
1993 100
1994 85
1995 58
1996 58
1997 58
1998 65
1999/2001 lost data
2002 75
2003 105 raw coin graded ms66fb
2004 135
2005 175
Most of the late date mercs followed this pattern.
They are still less than their highs of early 1980's
But have performed well the last few years.
I think the dimes have a bright future, since they are overlooked for the most part.
Most dealers have very few in stock. And if demand picks up?
Meanwhile its a great time to upgrade.
<< <i>the strike designation factor makes non-FB coins "orphans" when it comes time to resell. >>
Non Full Band coins do just fine when reselling. Many have very small populations so that is why very few are on the market. You just have to stick to your guns when selling them.
Ken
That's what TPG grading did. When you take a pile of 500 mercury dimes and you look at the pile you say, "they aren't so scarce". Then when you separate the pile in to 25 piles of 20, each pile (on it's own) is scarcer then when they were all together. When FB was "invented", it was not to fill a numismatic "need", it was created to break up the piles of 20's in to a pile of 2 and a pile of 18. Suddenly when the pile of 2 was compared to a pile of 500, the pile of 2 looked down right rare, let alone scarce.
My prediction is that collecting Mercury Dimes in high grade, and FB, will never reach our collectively desired notariety until such time as there are agreed on and STRICTLY adhered to standards in CONSISTENCY of TPG grading Mercs -- period!
In fact any classic series with designations (other than copper, for the most part) has some of the same challenges. But because there is more absolute (rather than relative, or "invented") rarity, collecting coins wihtout the "most prominent" designation is not viewed as subpar. After all, not many people set out to do a set of Large Cents in RD...but a zillion people collect large cents. And at non-RD designation status, the coins are still scarce in high grade because of the mintages and survival rates. Not so for 80% of the Mercs.
So, buy PQ coins and buy them right. If they are FB, there will probably be a person to buy them from you when it's time to sell. If they are not FB, there will probably be a person to buy them from you when it's time to sell. If they are not PQ there will probably not be many people to buy them from you when it's time to sell.
PQ Mercs are scarce, but non-PQ Mercs are a dime a dozen -- no pun intended
And just to add some color to this thread:
There were several in other dealers cases all in NGC holders. It's rare to see any coins at this particular show in PCGS holders. 10-15 dealers.
Overall, I love the Mercury series and had quite a bit of it in NB before deciding to move into a type series (not to mention cash out some funds for buying a bigger house). If you are not overcome by the FB designation, this series can still be collected reasonably compared to its siblings, i.e. Walkers, Buffalo Nickels.
I still have my Mercateer T-shirt!!