Any thoughts about the Larry Shapiro Mercs auction?
Mercfan
Posts: 700 ✭✭
Or is it too soon to expect any reports, analysis, or reflection?
Being something of a novice regarding such auctions, I'd be happy to hear the observations of any of you Mercury dime folks who were in the room, or who bid online, or who might have just taken note of how it appeared to go.
Being something of a novice regarding such auctions, I'd be happy to hear the observations of any of you Mercury dime folks who were in the room, or who bid online, or who might have just taken note of how it appeared to go.
"Coin collecting problem"? What "coin collecting problem"?
0
Comments
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
One dime that did not sell I use to own and the Heritage picture made it look terrible. It was the colored 45D MS67FB coin. If this was a auction selling my coins I would be disturbed.
If Larry is happy that is all that counts.
Ken
I was also struck by the unevenness of the bidding. Some really fabulous coins went for what seemed to me to be relative bargain prices, while others (even some pretty common dates) got premium-type money. (That might just be a function of too few participating bidders.)
Anybody know how many in-person bidders there were? Anybody have a sense of how many total bidders participated online? The number of bidders on the coins I took a close look at on Wednesday night ranged from three to seven bidders as of the cut-off--MANY fewer than I would have expected.
I placed online bids on six coins, and REALLY WANTED five of them. (Too bad I didn't bid like I really wanted those five!) I'm delighted to have won two lots, but I should have bid higher on at least two of those I got beat on this morning. I'll be kicking myself for a long time for not bidding more aggressively on that gorgeous MS-66 29-S. One thing is certain: I should have been more certain that I wouldn't win all my bids, in which case I could have bid on a few more coins (or bid higher on a couple of them).
One other thought/observation: Didn't it look like there wasn't much of a market for the MS-68s, at least at the reserve prices set? It sure wasn't as though a mob of Merc registry set collectors was waiting to gobble up the Shapiro 68s that might improve or solidify their registry rankings.
Might the Mercury dime bubble be losing some air?
If this is a post-holiday, empty pockets phenomenon, does it occur every year at the FUN auctions?
I heard that the 1926-S dime didn't meet the reserve
I will let you all know womething tomorrow
I am using Steve's Computer now,so not signed up as myself.
65% of the coins did make reserve.
I am VERY happy with the 65% of the coins that did sell..Very strong money on most of them.
I have had about 30 emails from guys who wnt to buy the coins that didn't sell..
Some coins just can't take the 15% buyers fee and still be within reason.
I will sell the 2 1916-d's very easy along with the 26s.
I set reserves at or below cost,but was not about to lose money on any of them....
One person who doesn't have a clue,says it was a slapped together set.
If you take my best 77 coins,and my proofs,I will stack them against anyones coins.
I spent over 3 years putting these coins together,buying 3 complete sets just to get 5 coins,and buying 4 partial sets to get another 10 coins.
It took over 600 dime purchases to get the final 200 coins..the 55 extra dupes I really didn't want to include with the sale,but Heritage wanted them all.
I had talked to 4 of the 5 past top merc collectors,and they loved my top set coins.....That's all I need is to hear the real experts compliment my coins..
Full report when I get home,
Larry
p.s.
their pics really sucked,so that did not help my collored coins which were most of them...
Check out my PQ selection of Morgan & Peace Dollars, and more at:
WWW.PQDOLLARS.COM or WWW.GILBERTCOINS.COM
Lot 1884 23-S 65FB
Lot 2015 17-S 66FB
Lot 2137 19-D 64FB
Marc
P.S. IMHO this sale was a dud at least for me and many lessons learnt in every respect. More when I calm down and collect my thoughts.
<< <i> I should have been more certain that I wouldn't win all my bids, in which case I could have bid on a few more coins (or bid higher on a couple of them). >>
Never sure how the auction will go and I did the same . . . bid on eight, really wanted four and won only one. Some great dimes, wish I had bid higher.
Ron
[IMG]">1898 Proof Set
<< <i>My first reaction when I read here that the set was up for sale, was the timing. Mercs are on of my favorites to colllect however it struck me that the market didn't seem right to try to sell that set, especially if huge prices were expected. I don't hear as much buzz out their in the collecting community on these sets as I did a few years back. >>
The problem with Mercs, and I know a large population of the FB Merc collectors, is that the ones that have the kind of $$ it takes to have a top notch set are 90%+ done, and they are being VERY selective on these last few purchases.
On the other hand, the folks that are 50% - 80% done are burnt out, money wise. A good number of these folks never stepped back to think about how much it would actually cost to do a Merc set in FB. And now that they are down to the "magic" 16, the grim realities have set in. And they simply don't have the $$ to buy even subpar FB coins, let alone Gem 65 FB coins. 16-D, 18-D, 19-D and S, 27-S, 27-D, 26-S, 25-S, and the list goes on and on and on. The last 16 coins cost me more than the first 64...and that's just the reality.
I always believed there is finite pool of people who have the firepower to do an FB Merc run...and this group is very small. Luckily, a couple new people enter the Merc series every year, but all and all Merc dimes in Gem FB (or even 4's) key dates are very thinly traded. As such, the prices on these things are all over the map.
For example, a coin might be $5k, but if 2-4 guys want it, or need it and can afford it, it might sell for $12k. On the other hand, a coin can be a $4,500 coin and when no one wants it, or needs it or cannot afford at time of sale, the coin might not even hit $2,900.
The above are just economic realities of collecting Mercs. Most people take the wrong path and decide to start off with the cheap/easy dates and can complete 50% of the set in 7 days (really, between all the online venues, one can probably even do it in a day). Then they hit their first $1k+ coin, and realize that they paid the same for 15 cois combined, and that $1k is just the beginning of the cheap/semi-keys. Then when they are used to buying 6's and 7's FB and paying $80 - $100, and have to buy a 62FB of a semi-key for $1,500, they bum, or a 64FB for $6k, or an AU50 of the KING for north of $7k....BUMMER!
So, this perhaps helps to rationlize the dynamics of the Merc market -- very few collectors who actually have means to build a set. And others don't dabble in Mercs other than 16-D, 21-P and D, because people who don't do Mercs don't understand the rarity of a 19-S or D, or 26-S, or 23-S or 24-S in Gem 65FB...they look at the price of a 24-S in 65FB and say, S**T, I can buy a 62FB-63FB 16D for the same money.
So, unlike other series where people are more aware of the rarity of the keys/semi-keys, people just don't have that level of awareness of Mercs, so you won't have a run of the mill high net worth guy/gal sitting in on an auction and bidding on a 23-S in 65FB as an investment.
BBBUUUUTTTT -- I like dimes, and always will. I've always strided for buying coins that are PQ for their grade. I made a lot of mistakes along the way, but I learned, and through that process have tried to impart this on to others so they don't make the same mistakes.
BUY THE KEYS FIRST!!!! TAKE 3 YEARS TO BUY THE FIRST 10 COINS, TAKE 2 YEARS TO BUY THE NEXT 10 COINs, TAKE 1 YEAR TO BUY THE NEXT 20 COINS, AND TAKE THE NEXT 6 MONTHS TO BUY THE NEXT 40
Mike nice post.
Ken
MercuryDimeGuy, your thoughtful, experienced comments illustrate perfectly why this is the forum I most enjoy visiting. I think that most of what you say is right on target, and it would explain a lot of the un-met reserve prices in yesterday's auction of tremendously desirable coins.
I really appreciate your offering your strategy for collecting the full set in FB (keys first). I've been working with my own strategy for collecting Mercs, and I carry on a constant debate with myself regarding relative merits of the "keys first" vs "keys last" strategies. I start with the complete awareness that I'll never have the money it takes to complete a set in FB. Consequently, my chief numismatic goal is to put together as nice (and as complete) a "not-necessarily-full-banded" set as I can. Since I'll almost certainly always have VERY moderate financial resources to work with, my plan is to shoot for 90% completion (so that the set can at least have a chance of spending a few decades ranked somewhere on an "all-time best" list). If I get to 90% with really nice coins (which, as you point out, isn't as easy as one might think), I'll see whether or not my life situation and the Mercury marketplace make it attractive to go after those final eight specimens (including the three varieties).
Here's the bet I see myself as making: If, when I reach 90% complete, Mercs have continued to appreciate in price and the last eight coins have such high prices that they're totally out of reach, then I'm done. The downside is that I don't ever get to 100% complete. The upside is that I've had years of enjoying the collecting process; I'm holding a lovely, 90%-complete set of Mercs; and (assuming that the value of the coins in my set appreciates as the price of the eight that are out of reach get out of reach) I have a set that's worth more than I paid for it.
On the other hand, if at the time I get to 90% the Merc market has gone into the dumpster, I'll have a much better chance to go beyond 90% complete. In the event that the Merc market goes down significantly over the next ten years, I figure that: a) that'll give me an even better shot at picking up the coins that I currently expect will always be out of my financial reach, and b) I'm better off already owning the more common dates (which, I suspect, will lose a smaller percentage of their value in a slumping market than will the keys).
The main consideration that inclines me to go "non-keys first" is what I'd call the "quantity of collecting enjoyment" that I can have relative to my financial resources. For the price of one really nice key in this series (say, $8K - $10K), I can get a bunch of non-keys that provide me with: the fun of looking, finding, and getting; the fun of completing and then improving short, late-date, and/or date sets along the way; the fun of being able to admire a bunch of very lovely coins in hand. If it's a stuggle to spend $10 a year on coins, it's tough to get a lot "collecting enjoyment" in pursuit of those keys (or even semi-keys). The struggle to slowly acquire a few of those will be much more fun and meaningful in the context of attempting to complete (rather than start) a set.
One of the great things about the Mercs is that the short set, late-date set, and date set (with 1921 a bit pricey) are still pretty affordable. On top of that, they're just fabulous to look at. The desire to own a high-grade short set or late-date set should be an important force in getting new Merc collectors going.
Different strokes for the situations of different folks. Thanks for getting me thinking again about the "keys first" strategy!
Here is something for you to think about. Yesterdays (1988) $150 to $250 common late date Mercs are todays $30 to $40 dollar coins. Just a little history about how the value can decrease.
None are safe bets but if I was betting the early date Keys, traditional and non-traditional, would be the coins to go after. After that all dates before 1934.
Ken
In the down market, you won't see too many good coins. They all disappear
Thanks, Ken, for your historical insight on the prices. I wasn't paying any attention to numismatics in the late 80s, so I wasn't at all aware that there was a time pre-1990 when Merc prices were a lot higher than they currently are. Where might I find a nice year-by-year summary of the ups and downs of the Merc market over, say, the past thirty years? I recently read David Lange's (very helpful) second edition, in which he summarizes the values for each date and mint mark at ten-year intervals. It appeared from those figures that there wasn't much Merc inflation in 1985, and that prices had dropped to near 1985 levels by 1995. How long did that late-80s spike last? What were its causes? What caused the bursting of that bubble? In light of that spike, what should we make of current prices?
And, relating back to JCPing's comment: Were the good coins pulled off the market when prices deflated immediately following the 1988 spike?
No, not after the panic sells. Go back to check the auction catalogs between 1992 and 1996. You will surprise that the percentage of rare coins are much smaller than that of the today's market.
There is not much incentive to sell investment (key date) coins in the down market unless you need $$$
Of course the TPG's had not been around for that long of a time so the prices were really a reflection of what people thought was available. We know better now.
The prices went higher right up untill the market had the big crash. By that time I was on the side lines with the whole collection sold. Darn lucky IMO.
Ken
<< <i>p.s.
their pics really sucked,so that did not help my collored coins which were most of them... >>
That's what I guess really amazes me..... that people/collectors/sellers actually consign their coins to Heritage when they are a horror story at best when it comes to reality. Not that I have a problem with the coins I have recieved, but the sellers are getting stiffed with the overexposed versions of their coins in the auctions. Zoom in and you get the details, but the photograpy really sux. Some may say they have improved... I find it hard to believe. I don't even bid on many auctions just because they can't convince me that it's them and not the coin that is crap.
Several comments:
You said:
<< <i>So, this perhaps helps to rationlize the dynamics of the Merc market -- very few collectors who actually have means to build a set. And others don't dabble in Mercs other than 16-D, 21-P and D, because people who don't do Mercs don't understand the rarity of a 19-S or D, or 26-S, or 23-S or 24-S in Gem 65FB...they look at the price of a 24-S in 65FB and say, S**T, I can buy a 62FB-63FB 16D for the same money. >>
I disagree, as far as the 1921-P and 1921-D dime. I believe they have been supplanted by the 1942/1 and 1945-P in FB.
My own experience may be illuminating. After I completed my 1920- 1945 BU mercury dime set in the raw back in the 1960's and 1970's which excluded the 1916-1919 era and the 1942/1 overdate, I took a breather from collecting mercs until 1995. At such time, I decided to buy the slabbed 1916-D in 67FB, 1942/1 in 65NB and 1945-P in 67FB only. Why? First of all, I had barely enough money to buy all the other dimes or just buy the famed trio I really wanted but not enough money for both. I wanted only the famous mercury dimes that not only were the key mercury dimes but also famous coins in their own right regardless of whether the person owning the coin was a mercury dime collector or not. I figured, if I was going to spend that much money (even in 1995) I did not want to risk myself financially without the double protection of acquiring a coin that was attractive to even non mercury dime collectors.
Furthermore, I went on a rampage and have nearly completed a grading set of 1945-P mercury dimes in FB which had eluded me for over 25 years. I just love those 1945-P dimes in FB. Yet the 1942/1 dime with all the fame on the obverse of the coin makes the FB designation totally unimportant to me. I bought my 1942/1 when it was a top pop in NB back in the mid 1990's. Based on what I see in MS-66 NB nowadays, this coin will upgrade to 66 and possibly even 67.
Quite frankly, mercury dimes are sleeping right now as a set. Collectors are falling all over themselves for the lincoln cents and to a lesser extent, the washington quarters which both were comatose prior to 1999. Mercury dimes, except for the later 1941-1945 era had been strong in the 1997-2003 era and quite frankly, desperately needed a breather.
I have noted that for the past 40 years, that no more than two or three 20th century sets are ever "hot" at the same time. Think about it. I pleaded with a well known collector NOT to sell his lincoln cents when he did a few years back to go into another set. He did not listen to me and later admitted that he should have.
The fact that the later 1936-1945 common/type mercury dimes have fallen so much in price in FB since 2002-2003 may ultimately be the most bullish sign for the mercury dime set in the coming years. Up to a few years ago, pop top and near pop top mercury dimes in FB were simply too expensive for the starting collector to get into mercury dimes vis a vis cents, nickels, and quarters. Only the walking liberty halves were more expensive to get into at the time. However, since then things have changed. Now, lincoln cents have become the #1 20th century set to collect, followed by the washington quarters and the walking liberty halves which have both cooled off a bit as well.
So why is the price drop in mercury dime common/type coins bullish for the mercury dime series? Young collectors will once again see this as an pretty as well as attractively priced series to get into even in FB in the next few years. The lincoln cents, buffalo nickels, washington quarters and liberty walking halves have gotten too "pricey" in relation to the mercury dimes. These newer collectors will be the "seed" of the newer generation of a few "needed" collectors that will eventually blossom into full blown mercury dime collectors. It will take another 2-3 years but that time is coming. In essence, the mercury dime series is looking more and more like the Morgan silver dollar series back in the very early 1970's!!
Just some of my thoughts.
<< <i>their pics really sucked,so that did not help my collored coins which were most of them... >>
I have a hard time believing that folks would consign to Heritage knowing how crappy their pix can be. If I was putting up a set like Larry's I mite make it part of the deal that the pix had better be to my liking. I guess Heritage [and TeleTrade] are still fine if yer buying and not so fine if yer selling. The good coins usually look better than the pix and the bad coins worse than the pix.
Serious collectors shouldn't be buying serious coins off pics.... so what does it really matter?
Serious collectors shouldn't be buying serious coins off pics.... so what does it really matter?
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thats true of course, but since the OP made it a point to mention it, he must have been unhappy about it. In most collections there are serious coins, and probly a few or a fair number of less serious coins; so if one was to consign a whole collection to Heritage then the less serious coins would likely get screwed due to the poor pix. Serious coins generally sell themselves.
<< <i>I have a hard time believing that folks would consign to Heritage knowing how crappy their pix can be.
Serious collectors shouldn't be buying serious coins off pics.... so what does it really matter?
TDN...Geez.... Not everyone can (or will) travel everytime a coin they want comes up for sale. You made it sound like a non-traveler is not a serious collector. Also some collectors want to make decisions on their own so please do not say that a third party can view coins for the non-traveler.
Face it....Heritage Pictures Suck and they need to do something about the problem so both consigners and collectors can get a fair shake.
Ken
Anybody spending serious money on coins [serious for their own situation] who makes decisions solely off an auction picture [no matter what the company or quality of image] is making a mistake.
edited to add: I can't count the number of times I've seen what appears in the auction image to be an extremely attractive and PQ coin and Laura in person has X'd it out or called it 'product'.
How does getting additional information from someone who has seen the coin live preclude you from making a decision on your own? No auction picture is a replacement for viewing a coin live.
Sounds to me like gambling with 50% of the coin's value in order to save 5%.
TDN said:
<< <i>Anybody spending serious money on coins [serious for their own situation] >>
A very simple and profound definition of serious money.
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
<< <i>Also some collectors want to make decisions on their own so please do not say that a third party can view coins for the non-traveler.
How does getting additional information from someone who has seen the coin live preclude you from making a decision on your own? No auction picture is a replacement for viewing a coin live.
Sounds to me like gambling with 50% of the coin's value in order to save 5%. >>
This would probably go back to another discussion that was about PQ. If the third party looked at coins exactly like the purchaser then I will grant that it would be money well spent to have a coin viewed. Basically I do not think this is how it happens.
Do you and Laura always agree ? If so you both view coins exactly the same and you are one lucky collector to be able to have your desires viewed through two sets of eyes that think and see the same.
Ken
It takes some work on the collector's part to find a representative that can view coins 'in the collector's eyes'. A possible alternative is to establish a relationship with the auction companies [or perhaps another collector] whereby you can get lots of interest sent to you in order to view them in person.
Do you and Laura always agree ? If so you both view coins exactly the same and you are one lucky collector to be able to have your desires viewed through two sets of eyes that think and see the same.
No ... but we view coins sufficiently the same to make the representation work. AND PLEASE DON'T ACCUSE ME OF THINKING LIKE HER!!!!!!!
If you bid on Heritage auctions based on their pictures, and if you don't like it, simply return it and pay 5% re-stocking fee.
Sometimes, I don't know why auction agents charge 5% on $1000 coins and the same 5% on $1,000,000 coins. Don't you think the commission should have a cap, so is the real estate commision. When housing price is low, real estate agent asked for 6%. RIght now, most of them ask for 5%, 4.5% or less.
I got 15 of Larry's and 5 other mercs.
It was a great op for finding upgrades and comparing like graded coins.
Also getting a good feel what the current MS65-MS67FB PCGS mercury dime standards are.
I got Larrys 1919 64FB, which had by far the best bands of the 1919d's in the sale.
I got some good deals and had to pay premium on others.
The show was great and in three days I still didn't see every table.
Picked up a couple of nice mercs at the show including a super nice 1939-s 67fb on a older holder.
I would be surprised if this provision applies to Signature Sales ... but I could be wrong.
I would be surprised if this provision applies to Signature Sales ... but I could be wrong.
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They do discuss returns for Sig auctions on their website, but its hard to tell from the presentation just how they would apply the policy to a routine purchase from a sig auction.
<<I disagree, as far as the 1921-P and 1921-D dime. I believe they have been supplanted by the 1942/1 and 1945-P in FB.>>
oreville, the last coin you mentioned is not commercially recognized to the extent of the former coins by the non-numismatist general public. Heck, just about anyone you talk to about the 45-P says(dealers and collectors alike), "I've seen it before in other denominations...with such a high mintage there are still hoards of these things out there and someone might have a rolls and rolls that are FB". And a lot of people still don't buy in to the strike designation bit (e.g. FB) because grading by TPG's is so inconsitent.
On the other hand people know that the 42/1 is scarce because there were probably no more than 10,000 made, and the 21-P and D have a very low mintage and were massively circulated.
I just walked in the door from my week in Orlando.
I will give a full recap by monday for sure...
I am VERY happy with the prices realized from the 65% of the coins that sold..way beyond what I thought.
Before the sale,I had offers for the whole set from 2 guys,and many guys wanted first shot at the dimes that didn't sell.
I put the reserves where I wanted them,not Heritage.
I was NOT going to lose money on any coin putting them up for auction with no reserve.
When a set goes up with no reserve,funny things can happen during bidding...
I did NOT want to play that game.
A few things I need to say about my set....
My set...77 coins and the Non Band set 77 coins were all I really wanted to give Heritage..
That is 154 coins.
These were my Set coins..
The rest were dupes,and just plain dimes that I bought when I purchased full sets just to get a few coins.
Heritage wanted these coins,even though I really didn't want them to be next to the nice ones.
If you take out the extra coins,the 154 out of 255 coins were pretty darn nice.
I had at least 5 Merc experts.....dealers,pcgs graders,and guys that have spent years putting together their sets tell me how nice my # 1 set coins were..
Yes there were a few not so nice coins there,but I will match my top 100 dimes up against anyones..
This was not a quick slapped together set if you count only the top coins...
For those who only saw it on the registry in the last year and a half..My dime sets were under different names up until then.....
Just like my type sets..I have been working on them for at least 6 years either not on the registry,or under a name other than mine
To me,3 solid years traveling around the country to every show I could attend,having major dealers and collectors sending me dimes just about every day to look at....Making my own dimes etc...
Yes if I had another 5 years to do it,every coin would be great...
Even Barry in the # 1 set has some not so nice coins in his set after many years doing both sets.
Full recap with stats when I get back to normal...
Larry
POB 854
Temecula CA 92593
310-541-7222 office
310-710-2869 cell
www.LSRarecoins.com
Larry@LSRarecoins.com
PCGS Las Vegas June 24-26
Baltimore July 14-17
Chicago August 11-15
Welcome home, and thanks for your comments. Now get some sleep and rest up.
That is 154 coins.
These were my Set coins..
The rest were dupes,and just plain dimes that I bought when I purchased full sets just to get a few coins.
Heritage wanted these coins,even though I really didn't want them to be next to the nice ones.
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How did Heritage know about these and why did they consider it any of their concern?