Under what, if any, circumstances, could a new dealer make a very good living?
Bosox1976
Posts: 8,551 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've been asked by a recently unemployed collector friend - who has never even used ebay, nor really ever sold any of his collection - if I thought it possible to make an equivalent salary in the hobby (as a full-time dealer). He made about a hundred grand per year.
I told him that the buy side seemed like it would be harder and more time consuming than the sell side, and that IMHO a 10% profit margin was the best one could hope for, unless already sitting on an unending pile of gold.
Therefore, to buy on ebay and then flip/sell on ebay or at shows, $1,000,000 must be purchased wisely, remarketed, and sold at a 10% margin after fees/card show costs/advertising etc. per year to recompense him at an equivalent salary. Buying a million dollars of underpriced inventory seems like the difficult part, while the sales grind is likely just that - a grind - 20,000 auctions at about $50 each, or 10,000 at $100 etc.
Also, it would seem to be mathematically impossible to do 20,000 auctions (or so) plus buy, bookkeep, bank, and strategize in anything close to a 2000-hour workyear.
Bigger buys & sells would be the logical reaction, but even 1,000 $1,000 buys and sells is no easy task (2 per hour for an entire year??). Seems this is why the hobby/industry is so fragmented, and no 300 pound gorrillas have emerged.
I told him that the buy side seemed like it would be harder and more time consuming than the sell side, and that IMHO a 10% profit margin was the best one could hope for, unless already sitting on an unending pile of gold.
Therefore, to buy on ebay and then flip/sell on ebay or at shows, $1,000,000 must be purchased wisely, remarketed, and sold at a 10% margin after fees/card show costs/advertising etc. per year to recompense him at an equivalent salary. Buying a million dollars of underpriced inventory seems like the difficult part, while the sales grind is likely just that - a grind - 20,000 auctions at about $50 each, or 10,000 at $100 etc.
Also, it would seem to be mathematically impossible to do 20,000 auctions (or so) plus buy, bookkeep, bank, and strategize in anything close to a 2000-hour workyear.
Bigger buys & sells would be the logical reaction, but even 1,000 $1,000 buys and sells is no easy task (2 per hour for an entire year??). Seems this is why the hobby/industry is so fragmented, and no 300 pound gorrillas have emerged.
Mike
Bosox1976
Bosox1976
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There are many available models for buying/selling - but, again, I don't think any are guaranteed winners.
A) Be an auctioneer. The first-rate auction circuit is pretty crowded. And the second-rate people/houses are pretty competitive rate-wise. Too much money chasing too few good cards right now.
Crack-and-sell. On new issues, you have to be very, very quick to make this work. On modern - you have to know your markets wisely, as well as have a pipeline where to buy stuff.
C) Buy and flip on ebay. Very tough to make significant margins. Unless you just accumulate inventory that happens to increase in value.
If he truly loves the hobby - perhaps he could do okay in it. But I think he should try it for a week or two first to see if he enjoys it. I love this hobby a lot - but if I started putting 60-80 hours a week into it, I would be fried on it pretty quickly, I think.
I think most Collectors (myselft included) underestimate the amount of knowledge that a dealer accumulates over time. The learning curve is pretty steep - and the lessons learned can be expensive. You have to know what to buy and at what price. Like most resale industries - your money is made on the purchase - not the sale - and it takes a keen eye (and a lot of luck) to beat the knowledgeable people out there that are doing this as a profession.
There is a lot of money to be made in High-Grade Vintage - 1960s and earlier - the the dollars quickly drop off when you start dealing with newer cards and lower grade stuff.
A good suggestion would be to try it out for a while - (selling and reselling) - as a hobby - then decide if this is the profession he wants to pursue.
This was an idea I flirted with about 3 years ago. I didn't have to replace 100k/yr - but I had a reasonable goal. I started with a decent personal collection of vintage baseball cards up through 1981. I quickly realized that I only had a few truly "valuable" cards - I definately had an owner's bias when grading my own cards - submitting to PSA can be humbling!
I have sold my collection - didn't make as much as I originally anticipated - but I'm still married - and my cost basis was next to nothing because I did most of my collecting/trading in the late 70's.
My dad still has a '55 topps baseball complete set (mid-grade) that he bought in 1980 for $300. That may be my last Baseball card project - but I'll have to wait....
I have learned a tremendous amount from a bunch of these guys - even though I rarely post.
Stingray
Dave C.
The number of card shops will continue to decrease in the future. You could go to the ones just hanging on and cut some very interesting deals. That could be a great niche.
Great businesses are built around solving a problem/relieving pain. What's the pain, the hassle, and the inconvenience that you can solve?
Unlike alot of businesses, you don't need alot of capital to get started. Try low dollar deals for awhile. Analyze the industry and see what the strengths and weaknesses are of the key players.
Come to large Canadian card shows like the Toronto Sports Card Expo and hang out the "buying" shingle. Typically we Canucks simply see Beckett or SMR prices as being applicable in our currency (ie. a person sells a card to a "buyer" for $300 CDN--not $300 US--because CDN is our currency). Only the saavy seller, or the seller with top quality cards, looks for US $. Therefore, one could buy cards at a discounted rate when the exchange is factored in.
I have a friend who would generally spend 5-10K CDN at each semi-annual Toronto show--and he was not set-up at a "buying" booth, but simply a guy walking the floor and buying off dealers!! He would then flip the cards on ebay, consistently doubling his money. He figured that even if the cards sold on the bay for the same price as he purchased them that he would realize a 50% profit (this was back three and four years ago when the US dollar got you 1.50 to 1.60 CDN).
He is very knowledgeable and astute, so it was not uncommon for him to carry out the following example: buy a card from a weekend warrior for $500 CDN and then sell it on ebay for $700 US. Add in say a 50% rate of exchange on the currency difference and, voila, a nice profit of $550 CDN (or over 100%) on the card.
Admittedly this is difficult to pull off now that the exchange is about 1.15, but in the future this opportunity is likely to resurface.
I hope I have explained this clearly.
Eyebone
As far as the 4SC angle goes - does anyone know how low PSA will go on pricing for Bulk Submissions or monster repeat customers?
Bosox1976
BTW, I haven't had a chance to get that $ off this week--busy and all that--but I will shortly. Thanks and LMK when it arrives, if you remember. Merry Christmas.
David (eyebone)
Auctions wouldn't be as hard in terms of listing such quantity. If you can find a local kid who is knowledgable about products you could get him to list auctions as an afternoon job. I've been told SimClassicSports does that on eBay.
It also depends on what your friend wants to sell. Vintage or modern. If he wants to sell wax or single cards.
But the barriers to entry are tough.