Does the OGH Myth apply to Morgan DMPLs?

DennisH

I'm an avid Morgan collector who is very much a cynic about the myth that coins in PCGS Old Green Holders are often undergraded by current standards. While I can't speak at all for other series, I agree it might be somewhat true for CC Morgans. But for everything else in the Morgan world I think it's just a bunch of B.S. whose purpose is to sell coins.

So I'm thinking of conducting a test.

A few years ago I bought a group of eleven 1883-O/O VAM 4 Morgans in PCGS old green holders that, according to Condor's slab book, date back to 1995-98. (A twelfth coin, the nicest of the group, has been reholdered and is in my VAM Registry set.) All are graded MS63DMPL. Based upon their near-consective serial numbers (330xxxx, 751xxxx, and 753xxxx ), they clearly appear to have been graded in three separate batches.

I'm not a fan of DMPLs to begin with, since they almost always look a point or two worse to me than they're graded. Between the mirrors magnifying fields scuffs and numerous frost breaks on the devices, lower grade DMPLs usually strike me as having the eye appeal of roadkill. Eight or of these coins look like 62s to me; one looks like a 61; a couple look like 63s. I was eventually planning to send them in and get VAM attributions put on the holders, but maybe this is the time for a test... an OGH Myth test.

Grey Sheet price for a non-VAM 1883-O in 63DMPL is $60. In 64DMPL it jumps to $214. As VAM 4s I estimate the values at $125 and $300, respectively. The cost of having VAM designations put on the holders doesn't count, because I was planning on doing that anyway. But the cost of this test would be $18 per coin to have them Economy regraded at the same time. If one coin went up I'd almost break even. If none went up (as I expect) I'd have a hundred and ninety-eight bucks of additional OGH cynicism. (I drop off and pick up in person at PCGS, so there are no shipping costs involved.)

Does this sound like anything more than a waste of $198? Should I do it? Does anyone want to predict what the results will be? Will the Morgan world suffer by having 11 fewer OGH coins in it? Any other comments?

Merry Christmas everybody.

RW

I don't know much about the OGH myth but...

Eight or of these coins look like 62s to me; one looks like a 61; a couple look like 63s

...How good are your grading skills?

Hadleydog

The services have never been tougher on dmpl's than they are now. Lot's of coins that are already housed in pcgs plastic would not make the designation today, so I would have to say the OGH myth does not apply to dmpl's.

rkfish

DennisH,

It's my opinion that a high percentage of these DMPL's would not make todays standard of DMPL........so be careful if you plan to crack them.

Steve

TwoSides2aCoin

Dennis, RW makes a good point. But consider the PCGS guarantee. And why would it cost $198 for re holder? You say you've already factored the VAM attribution costs..... You weren't thinking of cracking out, I hope.

I personally like the new holders and you already indicate you want the VAM designation. I'm not understanding the "cynicism"...especially if you can "drop-off". Most of us do not have that liberty, not to mention the beautiful weather that comes with the location. You save on shipping and insurance if you can PICK UP.
Submit them in their holder with RE-GRADE/ VAM ATTRIBUTION on the submission form and box. I think you may find a surprise .

Merry Christmas to you and yours, too.

My prediction : TEXAS 38 USC 44


oh, prediction for the OGH's.... I say they cross with no problem and if you get them there soon, they may go up a notch at year's end. (it's the EGG NOG theory). Office parties and such if ya know what I mean.

DennisH

I think my grading skills with Morgans are pretty darn good, and these coins aren't knock-your-socks-off cameos with black mirrors. They're borderline IMO.

If I were to send them in, they would only go in as regrades in the holder. Eleven times $18 per Economy regrade is $198. I'm totally ignoring the additional VAM attribution fee of $15/coin, because it has nothing to do with the regrade experiment.

Hadleydog

Give the money to charity and leave the coins in their present tombs...........you might get back a bunch of 63 pl's, and that's gonna cost ya too.

DennisH

HadleyDog:

Sending in the coins as regrades in the holders means they are guaranteed by PCGS to not come back at anything less than 63DMPL.

Hadleydog

Sending in the coins as regrades in the holders means they are guaranteed by PCGS to not come back at anything less than 63DMPL.
The only way to do this experiment with no prejudice is to crack 'em out first and send them in raw. Otherwise, the grade guarantee you refer to will influence the graders decision.

jdsinva

I suspect that you have a pretty good eye for Morgans since that's what you mostly collect so I would follow your advice in that it's a waste of money just to get the VAM designation on the label. Maybe for the experiement, you could put them all into a bag and grab out 2 or 3 to send in for a test rather than the entire lot. That should suggest whether it is myth or not without going broke to prove it.

DennisH

HadleyDog:

It appears you don't understand how the regrade process works at PCGS. After the coins are logged in by the Receiving Department, including their original grades, and taken out of their holders, they go into the Grading Room just like any other coins. The graders have no way of knowing whether they are raw coins or regrades, because they all look the same. After they've been graded, the Finalizing Department compares the original grades to the "new" grades, and the highest one goes on the holder.

Hadleydog

Perhaps I am missing something here, Dennis. In the thread regarding crossing anacs to pcgs, you said I should add, however, that my "crossover" results have been significantly better when coins were submitted raw as "crackouts" instead -- but that takes considerable gut$, as your chance of getting something back in a bodybag goes from zero to who knows.
Why would your results be any different if they follow the procedure you just outlined?

DennisH

Crossover, crackout, and regrade are all different things.

Crossover means sending in a coin (still in the holder) that has been graded by another company.

Crackout means me taking a coin out of anybody's holder (including PCGS) and sending it in as a raw coin.

Regrade applies to PCGS coins only, which are sent in still in their holders. PCGS itself takes them out of the holders and submits them to the graders as raw coins.

My proposed experiment involves regrades only, not crackouts.

In my experience with buying ANACS coins and putting them into PCGS holders, I always submit coins I have any worries about whatsoever as Crossovers. For coins that I am absolutely certain are problem-free and solid for the grade (or I think have a genuine chance at upgrading) I always crack them out and submit them as raw coins. I have never taken a PCGS coin out of its holder and resubmitted it for grading as a raw coin.

Hadleydog

That makes more sense.
I am no expert in the plastics game (as you can obviously tell), but I think I see the light!
Thanks, Dennis

michael

Does the OGH Myth apply to Morgan DMPLs?


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


if the myth says that if cracked and regraded most will not go into dmpl holders again

ajia

Just had a conversation with another board member on this OGH 'myth'.

My take is that most 'PQ', or undergraded coins in OGH have been cracked out & sent in.
This was probably done so many times when PCGS went from green to blue holders (maybe fueled by Scott Travers book on how to make money......) that OGH got the reputation of instant upgrade.

Now, the majority that remains in OGH are those that were graded correctly or are overgraded.
The vast majority of OGH coins I have do not seem to be any better than those in NBH (New Blue Holders) & in some cases look overgraded.......IMO.

DennisH

Ajia:

I very much agree with you.

Coxe

Older certifications admitted PLs as DMPL that would probably fall short today. A fraction of the older PLs are also one-sided PLs in the older holders. For rarer dates, the difference is not as pronounced as for common dates in my experience. I think PCGS (and others) has been variable when is comes to recognizing DMPLs from the 20th century dates. Many of them from 1901 on are silver DMPLs with marginal contrast if any.

In time, this OGH stuff will go away. The material that will remain in the OGHs will be that which won't upgrade. An OGH MS63 should bring better money in a new MS64 holder than with an OGH tag and speculation. Rattlers might be a bit slower to fade. I submitted many VAMs for variety attribution that had green and yellow tags, some PQ for sure, knowing they would return in the same grade with a new blue tag. Maybe I will send the PQ ones back through for upgrade consideration later, probably will. Nonetheless, many of the buyers of that stuff buy the coins despite the tags.

Bear

I just bought a MS-66 PL Morgan Dollar from Legend.

Laura weatched another dealer crack the coin out of a

MS-65 DMPL PCGS Holder trying for an upgrade. The coin,

while lovely, was downgraded from DMPL to PL.

while upgraded to a MS-66. That had to hurt

on a 1884-CC Dollar.

Sunnywood

As I have said on here many times, most collectors have NO IDEA how very many times most coins are cracked out and resubmitted for upgrade. Upgrade is the ONLY thing that many dealers care about, especially at the wholesale level. Any coins left in old green holders have either been off the market, in which case they may still represent upgrade potential, or they are deemed to be generously graded. Otherwise they would already have been cracked out and resubmitted.

Ditto for crossover. You can bet that most NGC coins have already been tried at PCGS at some point. Either they didn't cross, or they graded a point lower. That doesn't mean NGC overgraded the coins. In some cases, PCGS is too tight on coins with beautiful eye appeal and luster ... PCGS is more focused on strict technical grading, while NGC seems to give a little leeway to coins with aethetic appeal. in this respect, NGC is a bit closer to "market grading."

Unfortunately, neither service is consistent (how can they be? it is all subjective). Therefore you can find undergraded and overgraded coins of any vintage (green label, blue label, NGC fatties, etc). You better learn to grade for yourself !!! It is especially bad for Registry collectors, who want that plastic grade so bad that they don't like to turn down a high-grade coin, even if it is obviously over-graded.

I have some drop-dead gorgeous well struck, beautifully toned lustrous type coins in MS66 holders. If I ask PCGS "Why not MS67?" someone will point to an irrelevant microscopic pinscratch. However, I have also been sent other examples of the same dates and types in PCGS MS66 holders that have recently been "made" by crackout artists. Under magnification, I found substantial digs and gouges, even on Miss Liberty's portrait. Believe me, there is NO CONSISTENCY even on the strict technical grading. And that is no surprise ... it's just humans, looking at thousands of different coins.

One thing seems to be for sure, if I sent in a coin with those digs and gouges, it would come back MS64. I can only imagine how many times the crackheads had to send it in to get the MS66.

Sunnywood

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>Unfortunately, neither service is consistent (how can they be? it is all subjective) >>



And this is only compounded by the fact that coins aren't "created equal" either. A lot has happened to some of the Morgans in the last 125 years thats for sure. Its a matter of getting the right graders on the right day when your coins finally hit the grading room.