Is Nomar still a HOF candidate?

ndleo

I just read an article about the top free agents and Nomar was ranked #1. I was surprised that he is 32. His stats are surprising low, probably due to injuries: .320-1395 hits-191 HR-740 RBI.

Assuming he has 3 peak years and 3 ok years, I don't see him getting much more than Don Mattingly type numbers.

I think his only hope is a few MVPs and maybe a WS title.

fsjeter

If he can stay healthy and get a WS title, he still has a shot IMO.

Scott

Brian48

Nah.

Stone193

He's still young.

mike

ndleo

Was Nomar ever associated with roids? His decline in production (even in limited seasons) is significant. I know he had a few legs problems, but I would still think he could be a .300 batter. His average has fell off the cliff since his peak years.

dgbaseball

HOF, yes. Steroids, no. Primed for a monster 2006, quite likely.

Being my second favorite Red Sox of all time, the last few years has been like watching my dog die a slow and painful death. From the contract, to the trade, to the nastiness with the Boston front office, to the Sox winning without him, to his injury, he's been a walking Murphy's law. I'm really hoping and expecting he'll put up a huge 2006 season (unless he winds up playing 2B for NYY, in which case I hope he goes the way of an old sick dog) and get things back on track. He's already had about as many full and productive seasons as Mattingly, so that comparison should dissolve if he can bang out 5-6 more .330/30/110 seasons. He's certainly got the raw talent, just needs to stay healthy.

mercurynut

I am a Nomar fan and I think he has no real shot at the hall because of missed time due to injuries!

eyebone

The Hall may, unfortunately, be out of range for Nomar at this point. When healthy he is scary good though.

Eyebone

phreakydancin

STATS

A .320 career average is impressive, but 10 years into his career he's not even at 1400 hits. If 3,000 is the magic number, he'll need to stay healthy and keep going at the same pace. So far he has averaged only 107 games per season.

dgbaseball

A .320 career average is impressive, but 10 years into his career he's not even at 1400 hits. If 3,000 is the magic number, he'll need to stay healthy and keep going at the same pace. So far he has averaged only 107 games per season.

And if he stays healthy, career numbers in the ballpark of 450 HR, 3000 Hits, .320 BA are not unattainable. Of course, health is the big question mark. And I'm not sure I'd consider his 1996 September call up a season in calculating your averages. He might be averaging 107 games per calendar year, but that's because he's lost so much continuous time to significant injuries. It's not like he prone to injury. When his wrist isn't shattered or muscles aren't torn from his leg, he's batting 600-700 times each season and cranking out 200 hits, of which about 30-40% are for extra bases.

DeutscherGeist

He really needs to prove himself and not just fill in seasons to get some career totals.

Guys, there is no comparison with Mattingly. Nomar has to be compared to other shortstops of his era and see how he ranks against them.

Garciaparra vs Mattingly
Black ink numbers 15 23
Gray ink numbers 78 111
Hall Monitor (HOF>100) 115 133.5


He has not accomplished what Mattingly has. Let's be honest here.

dgbaseball

He has not accomplished what Mattingly has. Let's be honest here

Agreed. He's been much better.

MPeter

Is Nomar still.........................was he ever?

1420sports

was he ever?

I never considered him as having a HOF career pace ... mainly due to injuries. Chances are against him that he will even get 2000 hits, as I see him as getting injured next year again. Three, four more years tops.

Raymond

<< <i>
And if he stays healthy, career numbers in the ballpark of 450 HR, 3000 Hits, .320 BA are not unattainable.

<< <i>

You can't be serious...

ndleo

I think there is a little revisionist history going on here. Nomar through the age of 30 was just as solid a HOF candidate as anyone in the game. You can try to use any comparative stat you want, the bottom line is that before the injuries, Nomar was in the same league as Jeter and A-Rod.

Nomar reminds me a lot of Mattingly before the injuries happened, here are their stats through 30 yrs old, before the injuries cost both of them a lot of games.

Nomar .323-1231 H-685 R-173 HR-669 RBI
Mattingly .314-1570 H-719 R-178 HR-827 RBI

Mattingly has 1200 more at bats at the same age. Factor in the position (1B vs. SS) and batting position, and they both are in the same category. When Donnie was 30, I think everyone thought he was a lock for the HOF. Nomar was approaching that status before his recent decline.

That said, he will turn 33 next year. The best way for him to get in is 3000 hits, personally I don't see him reaching 3000 unless he has a Paul Molitor like run after age 36. He would have to average 200 hits for the next 9 years, and with his legs gone, he is not going to get enough at-bats to do it.

Skinpinch

Hi ya'll.

The Nomar/Mattingly comparisons are valid in the sense that they were both clearly on a HOF path before the decline hit. The stat comparisons that were used to describe them had one major flaw, not adjusted for different era's, but the premise was right on.

In all, Nomar has had about three or four HOF type seasons. They aren't Koufaxian type seasons, but HOF type nonetheless. There are a number of guys in history that have accomplished that level of play during their primes, only to be looking outside the Hall of Fame. Mattingly had about three or four type HOF seasons too, but three of his WERE Koufaxian!

If Nomar's last 600 plate apperances are indicative of the futre, then he has a lot of league average hitting years ahead of him. Lucky for him, 600 plate apperances aren't enough to make that assumption. Only time will tell on that.

Unless he kicks his level of play back up, then he isn't going to make it.


The guy in history that Nomar reminds me of value wise is Bill Madlock. Madlock's numbers are a little lower in his prime because he played in a much tougher era to hit in, but when you look at it correctly you see this...

Madlock OPS+ 124,141, 150, 111, 144, 116, 105, 154, 135, 127. That was age 23 to 32
Nomar OPS+...123, 142, 152, 158, 114, 132, 121, 112, 99, ????.....That was age 23 to 32. I didn't look at their part season rookie years. (Madlock 170, Nomar 81)

Looking at that, Madlock was more advanced at this point than Nomar is now. One can do this exercise with a number of players in history who never made the Hall. Then there is my favorite WHAT IF player, a player was indeed excellent as well and that was Fred Lynn. He also reminds me a bit of Nomar as well in terms of how their career went. Then there is my all-time WHAT IF player...WHAT IF as in "what if the general fandom actually knew how to correctly measure a players value," and that is Ken Singleton.

Then take a look at Dave Parker . There are so many players that were outstanding that don't make the Hall, partly because they fell short of an arbitrary milestone.

Steroids...I would not dismiss him at all as a candidate to be a user. I remember when his muscles were extremely well defined, especially the year he posed on the cover of a magzine with no shirt on. Right when I saw that picture one of my eyebrows were raised for sure.


How about Pedro Guerrero? Boy he was a monster, but dropped off early at age 36.

dgbaseball

You can do whatever comparisons you like, speculate whatever you want, project whatever statistics you want. Bill Madlock? Are you kidding. Nomar's not declining. He didn't hit a wall. He had his wrist basically shattered and the muscle torn off his leg. Consequently, he's missed a lot of playing time. Yes, he has to come back and prove that he hasn't lost it. But he's still one of the most talented pure hitters in baseball today. He's been seriously hurt and hasn't played much yes, but it's not like his knees or ankles are going and he's on the decline. He's recovered and should return to form. HOF form. And if he doesn't, well then the answer to the question is no, he's not a HOF cantidate. But there's no way to logically predict that based on his past HOF level performance.

WinPitcher

DG be grateful Nomar was not compared to Andre Thornton. Bill Madlock by the way was no slouch.




SD

rbdjr1

SOLD!

1984 OPC #8 DON MATTINGLY RC BGS BVG 9.5

edit: P.S. Well, if Nomar doesn't make it to the Hall, his old lady did!

rbd

dgbaseball

Definitely another plus for Nomar. Hot wife. Believe me, she is. Saw her in person up close a few times at Fenway, and was amazed how much better looking she is in person than you'd think. Plus she would hang out up behind homeplate in the grandstands drinking Fenway beers wearing jeans and t-shirt with her friends, not sitting in a luxury box sipping c()cktails in an evening gown with the rest of the player wives.

Hm, maybe another reason Nomar's teammates didn't like him...

I can't believe the filter prevented my post and highlighted the first part of the word c()cktails. Geesh.

Skinpinch

Bill Madlock could flat out rake!

Dg, everything you said is what I said. I added the comparisons to players in the case he does not step up his production again. Plus to highlight some guys who get forgotten just because they aren't Hall of Famers. Your reaction to Bill Madlock kind of highlights that.


No WIn, it should read, "Luckily he wasn't compared to Bill Buckner" Then it would be a faulty comparison.

Brian48

Hmmm. I never knew she actually changed her last name. I always figured celebs kept their original names for marketing reasons.

bobbybakeriv

Candidate? Yes. Legitimate chance? No. Mattingly was better than Nomar IMO and Madlock was a very good hitter. I agree, he was no slouch.

phreakydancin

Cocktails!

jayhawke

No chance.