Yanks, Matsui reach an agreement
GoYankeesGo
Posts: 226
in Sports Talk
"With 330 RBIs, Matsui has the second-highest total of any Yankee over his first three seasons in the Major Leagues, behind only Joe DiMaggio (432, 1936-1938).
Matsui will earn $13 million per season, making him the highest-paid Japanese player in the Majors. His contract easily tops the four-year, $44 million deal that Ichiro Suzuki signed with Seattle before the 2004 season."
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Don't worry your tiny little head spammy, ichirio will overtake that salary on his next negotiation.
<< <i>Matsui is an all around contributor. Ichiro is a great singles hitter. Porn is good if you like it, but not in the equation. I take Matsui any day. Regards. >>
Oh, I'm not knocking porn per se, but I thought I remembered seeing a blurb on the news about it, and I'm just trying to confirm......
<< <i>Matsui is an all around contributor. Ichiro is a great singles hitter. Porn is good if you like it, but not in the equation. I take Matsui any day. Regards. >>
Let's throw out Ichiro is the game's best leadoff batter right now, a stolen base threat from all those 'just' singles, and arguably one of the best outfielders in the game today.
Matsui is a very good player, but I'd suspect there are a lot more Matsui's out there who can do what he does than there are Ichiros.
Anyways, Matsushi over Ichiro? I don't think so. In general, I think Ichiro is simply the hardest guy in baseball to get out, singles or not, doesn't really matter. He's just flat out the most difficult out in baseball. He's lightning fast and an incredible fielder. I'll admit, I think Matsushi is probably right there in the top five in that regards, and probably the last guy any Red Sox fan wants to see at the plate. But he has far more weaknesses than Ichiro, starting with his fielding and running. I also think Ichiro is a lot like Wade Boggs - if he wanted he could easily hit 25-30 HR a year at the expense of his average, plate discipline, OBP etc - but he realizes that's not his game and his value is best provided in the way he plays.
That's a great point. There are at least a dozen similar players to Matsushi, many of whom are better. There are few if any, players who can match everything Ichiro brings to the game.
Matsui will earn $13 million per season, making him the highest-paid Japanese player in the Majors. His contract easily tops the four-year, $44 million deal that Ichiro Suzuki signed with Seattle before the 2004 season
Wow. You mean the Yankees paid a guy more than any other team? That's f***ing fascinating.
.332 .377 .442
Matsui Career:
.297 .370 .484
Come on Ax. Is Ichiro's superior arm and nominally better OB percentage really enough to blow Matsui's large slugging percentage advantage out of the water?
These two players are very similar in terms of actually helping their teams. Matsui has edges in most objective measures that you usually don't ignore.
<< <i>Ichiro Career:
.332 .377 .442
Matsui Career:
.297 .370 .484
Come on Ax. Is Ichiro's superior arm and nominally better OB percentage really enough to blow Matsui's large slugging percentage advantage out of the water?
These two players are very similar in terms of actually helping their teams. Matsui has edges in most objective measures that you usually don't ignore. >>
Over the course of their careers, the two are in a virtual tie in terms of offensive production (what looks like an edge to Matsui from the slugging % disappears when you factor in stolen bases and GIDP). It is interesting to contemplate, though, that while Matsui has never had a season as good as Ichiro's 2004 season, he was significantly more productive than Ichiro was last season. So, who is better going forward depends a great deal on whether Ichiro is really in decline, or whether he will get his numbers back up close to his 2004 level.
My vote for career best so far would be Ichiro - a tie on offense but a big defensive difference. If I had to pick one going forward, I'd probably pick Matsui based on how they each did last year, but it wouldn't shock me if that turned out to be the wrong choice.
<< <i>... a tie on offense but a big defensive difference... >>
I'd tend to agree that Ichiro may have a slight edge to date, but corner outfielder defense is not a big deal. I'd be surprised if Ichiro's better defense is saving a run a week more than Matsui's stumbling around.
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<< <i>... a tie on offense but a big defensive difference... >>
I'd tend to agree that Ichiro may have a slight edge to date, but corner outfielder defense is not a big deal. I'd be surprised if Ichiro's better defense is saving a run a week more than Matsui's stumbling around. >>
I agree; I believe that in the context of defense the difference is big, but a big difference in defense is only equal to a small difference in offense. I'd also be surprised if the difference was as large as a run per week ; 25-30 runs a season is nothing to sneeze at - that's about the offensive difference between Mike Schmidt and Buddy Bell.
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<< <i>
<< <i>... a tie on offense but a big defensive difference... >>
I'd tend to agree that Ichiro may have a slight edge to date, but corner outfielder defense is not a big deal. I'd be surprised if Ichiro's better defense is saving a run a week more than Matsui's stumbling around. >>
I agree; I believe that in the context of defense the difference is big, but a big difference in defense is only equal to a small difference in offense. I'd also be surprised if the difference was as large as a run per week ; 25-30 runs a season is nothing to sneeze at - that's about the offensive difference between Mike Schmidt and Buddy Bell. >>
Your right I'm sure. Maybe a run a month on average.
<< <i> Matsui will earn $13 million per season, making him the highest-paid Japanese player in the Majors. His contract easily tops the four-year, $44 million deal that Ichiro Suzuki signed with Seattle before the 2004 season." >>
So what, that just shows how the Yankees continue to overpay veterans. A mediocre starting pitcher can earn $13 mill per on the Yank-Mees.
I'll laugh my a$$ off if they sign Damon for 7 years at $12 million per. He'll be barely walking the last 3 years of that contract!
Let's just ignore stolen bases (that turn singles into doubles...and distracts the pitcher). Matsui has seven in THREE YEARS, Ichiro averages 40 a year, taking his 27 doubles and turning it into 67 doubles per year.
Let's also throw out that Matsui strikes out 25 times more per year than Ichiro.
Let's also throw out that Ichiro has already broken an 82 year old record for hits in a season, has won an MVP award, is the first player to ever start his career with 5 straight 200+ hit seasons, and that he's arguably one of the finest defensive outfielders in the game.
I mean really, Matsui averages 23 home runs a year, a .297 BA, and a .484 SLG. He doesn't hit for average, and he doesn't hit for power in great numbers...he has a lot of RBIs (obviously a result of playing on a yankees team loaded with talent). What's this guy's ability? If he can't hit for average, and can't hit for excessive power, he doesn't steal bases, he's not considered an elite fielder. There must be 100 guys in the bigs who can hit less than 25 home runs a year, and about .300.
And THIS guy is considered to be 'about' the same as Ichiro?
But, those 100 plus less strikeouts amount to the value of about two home runs.
Taking his 40 stolen bases per year does NOT turn 27 doubles into 67 doubles. Two reasons. 1. A single, then a subsequent SB, does not produce the same amount of runs as a straight double. A real double advances base runners more than a single and a stolen base. 2. You can't just provide the stolen bases and ignore the caught stealing. A caught stealing is much more devastating to a team than a stolen base is advantageous. Typically it takes two successful stolen bases to equal the negative value of getting caught once.
Distracting the pitcher. It MAY, in some cases distract the pitcher, but that is usually overblown at the MLB level. If there is a case of that happening, that overall benefit is usually off-set from the batter having to take a strike.
Total hits is not the way to go in evaluation. I didn't look it up, but Ichiro may have led the American League in outs made last year. That's the negative side of swinging away all the time, you make a lot of outs.
Typically it takes two successful stolen bases to equal the negative value of getting caught once
Well that is some classic Skinny-math there. I love it.
Anyways, I agree entirely. I think Ichiro is one of the 5 top hitting talents in baseball, as far as raw hitting ability goes. Even without the speed and defense, I'd take him over just about any other hitter in baseball not named Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols or Vlad Guerrero. Again, I mean as far as evaluating raw hitting talent. There are certainly guys who have put up more productive numbers in the past, but starting from scratch, Ichiro is the guy I take 4th.. Of course if someone values HRs more and considers Ichiro nothing more than a singles hitter, you could certainly make a good case for Matsushi, if that's important to defining a good hitter. Personally I think his ability to just hit the ball so effectively more than makes up for any gap in power. Or if you're Skinny, you can even try to level and equate all the stats down to the same baseline and try to prove it with numbers. Either way, we end up at the same place.
Distracting the pitcher. It MAY, in some cases distract the pitcher, but that is usually overblown at the MLB level. If there is a case of that happening, that overall benefit is usually off-set from the batter having to take a strike
I think Dave Roberts and Mariano Rivera might disagree...
Here is a look at what actually happened with these two players in THEIR games. Lets look at their at bats with a Man on 3rd, and less than two outs.
Name.......AB.......K......AVG
Ichiro.....111......12.....378
Matsui....102......13.....451
Even though Matsui has struck out overall more than Ichiro, it makes only a very tiny difference in the value of them as players, mostly because striking out only matters(in relation to contact outs), in very few instances, and most of that is the Man on 3rd less than 2 out instance.
Looking at those above numbers, Ichiro's ability to just make contact doesn't really give him much value over Matsui, in fact, practically zero extra value. So the focus should be put on the items that truly do define the value of the player.
Dg, the example of Dave ROberts/RIvera is a good start, but the thousands of other instances can't be ignored
Edited to add: If somebody were to show that Ichiro advanced 30 or 40 runners from first to second, or second to third(on outs), then hey, he should get credit for that(so should Matsui on his), but that usually isn't the case. The difference between the best strikeout guy vs. the worst is usually not much, but it somebody can show it, sure give him credit.
<< <i>And THIS guy is considered to be 'about' the same as Ichiro? >>
He is about the same as Ichiro. For once it is you with the blinders. Ichiro has an edge, it is not a large one.
Don't go labelling me a Spankee fan either, I've been hating them since '76.
<< <i>Typically it takes two successful stolen bases to equal the negative value of getting caught once. >>
Skinpinch, I have always thought - with absolutely no evidence whatsoever, just a gut feeling from watching - that the ratio was more like 3:1 or even 4:1. Is the 2:1 figure generally accepted by stat-nerds (dg's phrase, but I like it), is there a definitive study on that issue, in short - where did that figure come from?
I can understand your case (although I still don't agree) about strikeouts regarding a player like Bill Buckner. However I think one of the "very few instances" when it does matter is when you're talking about a leadoff hitter as fast as Ichiro, who can seemingly single to third base as easily as he can to right field. And I mean lead off as in his place in the lineup, not that he leads off each game once every night. There's a ton of inherent value in a guy who puts the ball in play and does not strike out with his speed in his spot in the lineup. The value he provides by putting the ball in play as often as possible, with a high likelihood of getting on base ahead of the sluggers (if there is such a thing on the Mariners) makes it significantly more than "very tiny difference".
I understand you're talking about an out vs a strikeout, and that they are effectively the same except with man on 3rd yadda yadda. My point is for a player like Ichiro standing in the batters box (in whatever situation, bases empty, men on, first inning, ninth inning whatever), a strikeout is indeed significantly worse than any other kind of out he can make. The fact that he does not strikeout much, and by that he brings the potential of a hit or infield hit or hurried throwing error to the plate each time is very significant in assessing his value. That's what makes him so special.
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<< <i>And THIS guy is considered to be 'about' the same as Ichiro? >>
He is about the same as Ichiro. For once it is you with the blinders. Ichiro has an edge, it is not a large one.
Don't go labelling me a Spankee fan either, I've been hating them since '76. >>
OK I won't label you as a spankee fan, but I will label you as not knowing the relative worth of the 2.
I don't see how you can't see Matsui as anything other than a mediocre batter...it would be one thing if he were averaging 35 home runs, batting over .300, and actually making a big difference in the lineup. He gets a ton of protection in the lineup, and if weren't playing on a team of all-stars, I suspect he'd be even less effective.
Ichiro, on the other hand, is a difference maker, and is the premier leadoff man in all of baseball. This has nothing to do with 'homerism', it has to do with objectively looking at the statistics. Ichiro is worth a great deal more since he is not easily replaced, where Matsui is.
<< <i>
I understand you're talking about an out vs a strikeout, and that they are effectively the same except with man on 3rd yadda yadda. My point is for a player like Ichiro standing in the batters box (in whatever situation, bases empty, men on, first inning, ninth inning whatever), a strikeout is indeed significantly worse than any other kind of out he can make. The fact that he does not strikeout much, and by that he brings the potential of a hit or infield hit or hurried throwing error to the plate each time is very significant in assessing his value. That's what makes him so special. >>
To me your giving credit twice. His speed and ability to avoid striking out is rewarded with a higher batting average. Combined with the tendency of score keepers to give hits on just about everything where the runner is safe at first I just can't justify giving him too much additional credit.
Anyhow, they are both fine players who I would LOVE to see manning the corner outfield spots for the Twins.
Dallas, the SB, CS is very solid. A SB is worth around .20 runs, while a caught stealing is 'worth' about -.43. Those are what they are worth in the 70's-80's environment. I believe a caught stealing in this more high octane offensive era is a little more costly, maybe up to -.45 or something.
The quick and dirty method is that if a guy is stealing at a rate of 66% he is basically spinning his wheels.
<< <i>OK I won't label you as a spankee fan, but I will label you as not knowing the relative worth of the 2.
I don't see how you can't see Matsui as anything other than a mediocre batter...it would be one thing if he were averaging 35 home runs, batting over .300, and actually making a big difference in the lineup. He gets a ton of protection in the lineup, and if weren't playing on a team of all-stars, I suspect he'd be even less effective.
Ichiro, on the other hand, is a difference maker, and is the premier leadoff man in all of baseball. This has nothing to do with 'homerism', it has to do with objectively looking at the statistics. Ichiro is worth a great deal more since he is not easily replaced, where Matsui is. >>
Try not to think of me as saying Matsui is the greatest thing ever. I just don't think he is that much different than Ichiro. Neither you or I are alone in our positions, but it just seemed to me like you usually leaned towards the "stats-nerd" side of the arguements when dealing with Yanks fans.
Matsui like you say is what he is. Ichiro on the other hand could improve a ton with just a little bit of patience and power. Definately higher upside with Ichiro, but to this date I just don't see their performances as that much different.
Maybe I'm slanted because I had to spend the season watching the Twins chase bad pitches and hit no homers and I'm sick of guys like that.
<< <i>Sagard is correct, Ichiro's contact ability in terms of generating hits is already measured in his batting average.
Dallas, the SB, CS is very solid. A SB is worth around .20 runs, while a caught stealing is 'worth' about -.43. Those are what they are worth in the 70's-80's environment. I believe a caught stealing in this more high octane offensive era is a little more costly, maybe up to -.45 or something.
The quick and dirty method is that if a guy is stealing at a rate of 66% he is basically spinning his wheels. >>
Thanks for the information. And I hadn't thought about the ratio getting higher as offense increased. Sounds like the "spinning wheels" level has climbed to about 70%.
I don't know if anyone here remembers him, but the Astros had a worthless POS named Gerald Young in the late 80's - early 90's; hit about .250 with absolutely zero power. But there were a ton of fans who loved him because he could steal bases - over 60 one year if memory serves - and they just didn't seem to notice how often he got thrown out (which was a lot!).
When a Vince Coleman steals 100+ bases with 80%+ success, then I think some of the arguments about distraction and intangibles might start to have some merit - but Gerald Young on the bases was a joke. He was just "spinning his wheels" and everybody (but the fans) knew it.
Pun intended?
There, I said it. Don't try to tell me none of you guys were thinking it.
<< <i>Matsui will earn $13 million per season, making him the highest-paid Japanese player in the Majors. His contract easily tops the four-year, $44 million deal that Ichiro Suzuki signed with Seattle before the 2004 season.
Wow. You mean the Yankees paid a guy more than any other team? That's f***ing fascinating. >>
Exactly. Who really cares, anyway? You knew the Yankees were going to pay Matsui stupid money - more than any other team would pay him by far - because they couldn't bear the PR of losing him to another team. He is a very good player, but in no way, shape, or form warrants that kind of contract based on what he has done given the lineup protection and support he gets.
The comparison to Ichiro is ridiculous as well. Ichiro is a unique player in today's game, and he might very well be the toughest out in the league. Try to replace him, and you simply cannot. Try and replace Matsui, and 20 names come to mind (many of which could be had for a lot less money).
<< <i>Ichiro is a unique player in today's game, and he might very well be the toughest out in the league. Try to replace him, and you simply cannot. Try and replace Matsui, and 20 names come to mind (many of which could be had for a lot less money). >>
This was my mindset from the outset....that Matsui is by no means unique, and therefore, should have no premium attached to his contract. but again, this is the yankees, so the same team that will overpay all their players, will overpay for this guy, too.
Ichiro is unique, and is irreplacable. Not only by his fantastic play in the field, but also the fanatical fans in Japan who follow his every at-bat.
<< <i>Ichiro is a unique player in today's game, and he might very well be the toughest out in the league. >>
Several posts have made reference to Ichiro being "the toughest out in the league"; can someone explain what you mean by that? I mean, opposing pitchers are able to get him out with greater frequency than they can get out Jeter, Pudge, Giambi, Martinez, ARod, Delgado, Ramirez, Olerud, Sheffield, Hafner, Guerrero, Bernie Williams, and probably a few more whose names aren't coming to mind. Or do you mean that even when they eventually get him out, he works the at-bat for a lot of pitches? I'm not saying he's not a tough guy to get out - he's very tough to get out, but so are all the other guys I mentioned. In what sense could he be considered the toughest?
Never heard the term "tough out"? In this case, people believe he's the toughest of them all.
The fact that you consider Bernie Williams a tougher out than Ichiro makes any explaination fruitless.
I also believe Ichiro is miscast as a lead off hitter. Since his OB% is driven mostly from hits rather than walks, he seems to be a player that would benefit a team more if he had more runners on in front of him. Being that his SLG% isn't super, then third or fourth in the lineup don't fit.
How good would the Mariners be if they had a lead off man who had an OB% over .390 (high ratio of walks), then they had Ichiro batting second with his OB% being above average, but generating a lot of runner movement across the bases with his many hits? They would be in good supply of first and third situations, with their middle of the lineup coming up(as long as Adrian Beltre doesn't consist of the middle
Everyone is enamored with Ichiro's uniqueness, but being unique doesn't equate to creating more runs(possibly could if used in above example). However, if guys like Corey Patterson took on Ichiro's approach, they may turn themselves into better ballplayers. Patterson has a horrible OB% because he hacks at everything and thinks he could hit 40 home runs. As a result his 20 home runs mean very little when his OB% hovers around the body weight of Frank Thomas.
<< <i>as long as Adrian Beltre doesn't consist of the middle
Come on...trying to slam Beltre? He had to adjust to a new league, new park, completely new atmosphere...if he has a bad year 2, then consider him a bust.
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Everyone is enamored with Ichiro's uniqueness, but being unique doesn't equate to creating more runs(possibly could if used in above example). >>
It's his job to be the table setter, to be the guy who gets driven in...yes I'd like to see him get more walks, but hell, there's no one else I'd rather have leading off.
Matsui, if compared to cleanup hitters doesn't rank as high, and I think that is what you are getting at, and I believe that has some validity, though not to the extreme that it seems to be taking. Lead off hitters who have an exceptional OB%, and clean up hitters who have exceptional SLG% do carry a small percent more value than what their total suggests. Though Ichiro really doesn't have an exceptional OB%. Matsui certainly doesn't have an exceptional SLG%
<< <i>The fact that you consider Bernie Williams a tougher out than Ichiro makes any explaination fruitless. >>
Oh come on, dg, give it a try.
Matsui doesn't excel in any areas; he's a good player don't get me wrong, but he brings nothing that is (a) irreplaceable or (b) worth $13 million a year.
<< <i>Here is what I mean by strikeouts. It is already known that, man on 3rd < less than 2 outs, is the time where striking out truly does matter. All other situations striking out doesn't amount to a hill of beans(compared to a contact out), and the contact significance is actually dwarfed by the increased double plays that come with contact outs.
Here is a look at what actually happened with these two players in THEIR games. Lets look at their at bats with a Man on 3rd, and less than two outs.
Name.......AB.......K......AVG
Ichiro.....111......12.....378
Matsui....102......13.....451
Even though Matsui has struck out overall more than Ichiro, it makes only a very tiny difference in the value of them as players, mostly because striking out only matters(in relation to contact outs), in very few instances, and most of that is the Man on 3rd less than 2 out instance.
Looking at those above numbers, Ichiro's ability to just make contact doesn't really give him much value over Matsui, in fact, practically zero extra value. So the focus should be put on the items that truly do define the value of the player.
Dg, the example of Dave ROberts/RIvera is a good start, but the thousands of other instances can't be ignored
Edited to add: If somebody were to show that Ichiro advanced 30 or 40 runners from first to second, or second to third(on outs), then hey, he should get credit for that(so should Matsui on his), but that usually isn't the case. The difference between the best strikeout guy vs. the worst is usually not much, but it somebody can show it, sure give him credit. >>
Oh my.
Whatever happened to watching the game and being able to tell that one player has a more profound positive or negative effect on his team and opponents?
Juggle the numbers all you want. Let's frigging play ball.
Ichiro is now and throughout his career, the better player...and I am a closet Yankees fan.