Dallas, I would say you nailed the jist of my posts! Yes, the misassigning of those winshare in Murray's case is an example of what I mean...especially at Murray's peak, as those men on numbers are Ruthian.
I'm still not sure if I am clear enough on what I mean by the late inning example. Even so, it is still only going to be a minor difference.
jax, lineup protection could exist when an extreme hitter is behind you. Usually it amounts to a tiny amount of difference.
-Speed of the runner in scoring positions makea difference if looking at RBI total, but if you are giving a neutral environment, it doesn't matter, because it doesn't affect whether or not you get the hit, only if the run actually scores(and that part is out of the htters control, so why assess the hitter on it?)
-weather, day after night, yes it is possible that if warm weather guys are playing at home in april and cold weather guys are at home in april, it could affect hitting. But it could be warm in april one day, and cold the next. In the end, it is usually pretty clsoe to equal for all guys. That stuff can be tracked. It would probably not amount to much though.
-The key is to evaluate players based on a neutral environment.
Those things aren't invisble, but they don't usually add up to much.
<< <i>Just to enter into the statistical mazes many have expounded upon..............., no mention has been made of stats AFTER a team has clinched its divison, they can't possibly be as important as those while still in the race. .......no mention of the quality of the pitcher whomever faced while obtaining any specific stats,...........how about stats derived when playing in day games following a night game or the second game of a doubleheader. they must be tougher than in regular games or games after an off-day,.......what about the guy who follows in the lineup, Babe Ruth had Lou Gehrig "protecting" him while Ernie Banks had Lee Walls, Walt Moryn ?? following him,..........what about weather conditions, what about the speed of the runner in scoring position, what about maybe several hundred other variables which make any and all stats somewhat subject to interpretation ??? >>
I think you nailed one of the biggest problems with MVP voting - and also HOF voting - with some of your points. The strength of the player behind you, the speed of the runners on base, facing higher quality pitching because the pennant race is still wide open, etc. are all factors which will tend to favor players on great teams. And players on great teams are perceived to be better than they really are because of these factors (among other reasons).
That is exactly why the contributions of Bill James, SABRE, and other stat nerds are so vital; they can look beyond a batting average or an RBI total and see what the player's contribution would have been in a more neutral context. No system is perfect yet, but if we can stop automatically giving the MVP every year to the guy with the most RBI and the CYA to the guy with the most wins - then those systems are worth their weight in gold.
Now, if they can just get the world to understand that batting right-handed in Fenway (or left-handed in Yankee Stadium) is like having a 10 meter head start in a 100 meter race, then James et. al. will have earned their own place in the HOF.
This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
Comments
I'm still not sure if I am clear enough on what I mean by the late inning example. Even so, it is still only going to be a minor difference.
jax, lineup protection could exist when an extreme hitter is behind you. Usually it amounts to a tiny amount of difference.
-Speed of the runner in scoring positions makea difference if looking at RBI total, but if you are giving a neutral environment, it doesn't matter, because it doesn't affect whether or not you get the hit, only if the run actually scores(and that part is out of the htters control, so why assess the hitter on it?)
-weather, day after night, yes it is possible that if warm weather guys are playing at home in april and cold weather guys are at home in april, it could affect hitting. But it could be warm in april one day, and cold the next. In the end, it is usually pretty clsoe to equal for all guys. That stuff can be tracked. It would probably not amount to much though.
-The key is to evaluate players based on a neutral environment.
Those things aren't invisble, but they don't usually add up to much.
<< <i>Just to enter into the statistical mazes many have expounded upon..............., no mention has been made of stats AFTER a team has clinched its divison, they can't possibly be as important as those while still in the race. .......no mention of the quality of the pitcher whomever faced while obtaining any specific stats,...........how about stats derived when playing in day games following a night game or the second game of a doubleheader. they must be tougher than in regular games or games after an off-day,.......what about the guy who follows in the lineup, Babe Ruth had Lou Gehrig "protecting" him while Ernie Banks had Lee Walls, Walt Moryn ?? following him,..........what about weather conditions, what about the speed of the runner in scoring position, what about maybe several hundred other variables which make any and all stats somewhat subject to interpretation ??? >>
I think you nailed one of the biggest problems with MVP voting - and also HOF voting - with some of your points. The strength of the player behind you, the speed of the runners on base, facing higher quality pitching because the pennant race is still wide open, etc. are all factors which will tend to favor players on great teams. And players on great teams are perceived to be better than they really are because of these factors (among other reasons).
That is exactly why the contributions of Bill James, SABRE, and other stat nerds are so vital; they can look beyond a batting average or an RBI total and see what the player's contribution would have been in a more neutral context. No system is perfect yet, but if we can stop automatically giving the MVP every year to the guy with the most RBI and the CYA to the guy with the most wins - then those systems are worth their weight in gold.
Now, if they can just get the world to understand that batting right-handed in Fenway (or left-handed in Yankee Stadium) is like having a 10 meter head start in a 100 meter race, then James et. al. will have earned their own place in the HOF.