Okay Merc Dime People -- I'll put it back

fcloud

The question went something like this.

I saw Larry's MS66FB 1916-D in a Heritage ad in Coin World.

When top sets such as this sell at auction does it help the market, hurt the market of doesn't matter?

(I dropped the question yesterday because of the lack of interest on this board.)

Fairlaneman

I am not so sure a high grade set will impact the market prices very much. What I think I have been seeing is lower Mint State and AU stufff that is going for very strong money and quickly. The demand for the lower graded stuff, both Raw and Graded seems to be very strong. In my strools around Ebay the fairly priced higher graded coins just seem to sit there with no takers.

Cheers.

Ken

mercurydimeguy

Tony, don't get frustrated if people don't respond to your post right away...I saw it last night but wanted to spend some time with my wife instead of being on the PC

Also, some people go away for the weekend

...and now the long winded answer, Tony:

Ken, you are right. People look to buy the lower graded stuff. The nice for the grade, higher end stuff just hangs out.

Personally speaking, I think the Merc market peaked (other than the 16-D, which will ALWAYS be a strong coin). I've done my darndest to bring lots of new Merc collectors in to the market, and I guess I've done OK. However, once the thrill of buying 50% of your set at less than $250 per coin wears off and someone needs to spend $750-$1,000 for a P.O.C. ( I abbreviated as not to be profane) key/semi-key coin because a nice one will cost $2.5k, or when they really need to hit the keys and find out 65FB's just don't exist nice for the grade, or if they are nice for the grade they will cost $3k-$10k, and oh by the way there are about 15 coins like that, most people get disenchanted.

There are only a few dozen people out there that have the stomach and the cash to build a complete Merc collection in FB, and then keep it for any length of time (the emphasis on the latter and not the former). Most get burnt out because of one reason or another, but that's a different topic/thread.

So the market (or exit) for high end Mercs, is .... well, I can probably name the 25-35 collectors by name and that's about that. You can't exit to dealers because they want to buy key date Mercs at sheets (some blue / some gray)

In context that I LOVE Mercury Dimes and KNOW this series (stated so as not to be taken out of context), most people don't like Mercury Dimes because no one really knows how to grade them or should I say grading of Mercury Dimes is perhaps one of the most challenging arts. The other reason many don't like them is because the FB designation adds so much juice to the piece of plastic yet a number of the dimes already in plastic aren't FB. So a would be collector gets spanked on 2-3 grading submissions and then sees coins just like his/hers in a VERY HIGH GRADE plastic at a show and decides that collecting Mercs is not for them (it has happened to me in the past -- I admit -- and countless others).

And finally, if you want to build a whole FB set with a grade of 65.00 or higher (I finished mine at 66.44), you better be prepared to step up with $100k++. And that in itself is a problem. For me to have moved up .75 in grade across the set would've taken yet ANOTHER $100k++ just for that (a mere 5-6 upgrades of an already 100% completed set)! So at the end of the day one needs to have $200k++ to have a competitive set that has the staying power to stay in the top 5. And all it takes for someone to trump your many-year-journey is to take out $350k and all of a sudden they become the real collector, with a great eye, yada, yada, yada, yada.

So I commend Larry for deciding to take the chips off the table while there are still people who are building the high-end sets and need the coins.

As for the market for high-end keys/semi-keys, it will be minimal once the 25-30, or so, here complete their sets and realize that to get a 1 point upgrade of some coins will cost them $30k. How many non-PCGS registry set collectors will buy a maxed out (I'm not referring to Larry's coins of course...just speaking in general) 19-D or 24-S or 26-S for CRAZY $$...I don't know, Tony. But I can tell you not me I can also tell you that I know about 9 of the top 30 Registry Set collectors and they're burnt out, financially speaking, and they haven't even hit the BIG $$ coins...if you know what I mean.

So the market for high-end/key Mercs...it goes flat to down once the guys here fill their big $$ holes...because walking the floor at major coin shows only a few dealers even want to look at/carry Mercs at all...unless it's the 16-D, 21-P/D or the overdates.

Not to be doom/gloom...just what I'm seeing out there...

Mike.

fcloud

Mike,

Thanks for your comments. Here in the midwest it has been tough to find. The dealers I have talked to all seem to be impressed that I put together a fairly tough set. I still have a couple long term upgrades.

I seem to get ripped when I send in a group for grading. I sometimes wonder if I need someone else to send my coins in--maybe that way I will get a fair chance at a decent grade. I agree and think they simply don't know how to grade. A mark free--hairline free--fully struck coin comes back 64, and a beat up coin that should be no better then 63 comes back in the same submission with the same grade???

Fairlaneman

Mike I hope you are right about the Merc market at a peak. I for one would be back in the game possibly.

I personally think some people have just hit the sidelines for a spell. Prices have easily doubled on some of the coins while other coins have languished unchanged. It just so happens that the coins that have doubled are the coins everyone wants. Untill price structure drops they will sit or just maybe get a buyer after a period of time. The dimes sure do not move like they did 3 years ago on Ebay. Some web sites seem a little slow also.

Tony when I had my almost complete set a dealer or two out here were awed. Complete Merc sets are just not seen in this area. If they are around here people keep them hidden I guess. I believe its the former and not the latter though. Why I say this is because dealers will not spring for a bunch of Mercs at once because of few or no buyers. Sure they will take a couple but thats it.

Ken

mercurydimeguy

Tony, I just had a coin I sent in as a setup coin upgrade and the coin that should have HANDS DOWN been graded higher was not.

They are just smoking crack, or simply don't care. Probably the latter. The problem is that in what we collect, the not caring sometimes means a $5k hit. The widgets that we collect increase exponentially in price...these aren't the kinds of coins that go up $300-$500 on a 1 point move. Some coins go up $30k. With these kinds of stakes, they need to be a bit more "engaged" when grading Mercs.

I know I get soaked for 4-5 grading fees sometimes before I get the coin in to the right holder...thank GOD I at least have the resiliance to stick with it

fcloud

Ken,

I guess the way to sell must be at auction. Maybe you take a hit on the common stuff, but the stuff that is hard to get, is hard for everyone.

Mike,

I have a coin in for presidential review right now. It is one of those coins that blow your socks off when you see it. No hairlines, not a single ding, nick or scratch, and have a small crescent rainbow. They said 64.

marcmoish

When top sets such as this sell at auction does it help the market, hurt the market of doesn't matter?

imho it neither helps or detracts...regardless in the past few years for sure all the great collections up to and including Morse a few nites ago sold on there own merit period. Buyers and collectors are picking up choice well graded and well preserved pieces and not just the plastic. Time will tell if Larry's dimes bring strong money - as the same M.O. will be applicable to that collection too.

I also truly believe the market for merc's for that matter is NOT at its peak. What you may see in lower prices perhaps as I have are for inferior examples of which many have surfaced recently all hoping to gain from the huge demand. But collectors and buyers are smart - this time they are not just buying plastic.

Marc

Mercfan

I appreciate your thoughtful, "long-winded answer," MercuryDimeGuy!

My selfish hope is that you're correct that the Mercury Dime market has peaked (for now). I'm in this for the long haul, and a significant dip in prices over the next several years would be a huge help to us collectors with limited bankrolls.

Grading nuances and difficulties aside, the little ladies are visually special (like the SL quarter and the WL half), made of a precious metal, and much more affordable (than the SLQ and the WLH). Because of those characteristics, I suspect that their collector appeal will grow significantly over the next two decades. Even if the key dates remain too pricey in MS for all but a few collectors, a lot of people can have a ball pursuing and admiring complete short sets, late date sets, non-FB sets, and Merc proofs in MS grades.

Show me some weakness in pricing and I'm going to load up the wagon. You can't be too healthy, too virtuous, or own too many MS-65+ PCGS Mercs!