To 70s BB Collectors: Is the '78 Set Undervalued?

jskirwin

I'm doing the '70s and the Topps '78 set was the first set I completed. What I've noticed is that it's price hasn't moved much over the past 2 years since I completed the set.

When I look at the SMR for the stars of the set, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe - just maybe- I should seriously consider picking up some cards while the prices remain where they are. 8s for stars like Brock, Munson and Jackson run about $10-15. 9s of those cards are in the 20s & 30s up to 60 for Jackson. I don't do 10s, but it's tempting when commons show an SMR of 50.

The '78 has other good points. It's a big set full of stars. It's not the most attractive compared to say the '72 (my sentimental fave of all sets) but the quality is better than other sets.

So, do you think the '78 set has potential or do you think it will remain ignored?

Stone193

js
I don't know anything about what will happen to prices or where they will be in the future.

I can only say that the SMR is misleading, IMO, and I have been picking up 63F BB at about 60-70% SMR and sometimes better.

My take? Unless you like to look at stockpiled cards? A well positioned mutual fund with a proven track record is the way to go.

I have little or no confidence in BB cards, graded or not, as investment tools - this is just my opinion.

Every day more and more people are having this stuff graded - in many cases common 9s go for less than the grading fee.

mike

ctsoxfan

Mike is right - especially with any baseball set from the 70's, you had better be collecting for the fun of it, not profit. I started many of the late 70's sets, and have lost money on all of them, but I knew that going in. Nothing from the 70's is "undervalued".

NickM

Most HOFers in PSA 8 from this set go for $5 or less. I've picked up some nice common 9s for less than $5, and HOFers in PSA 9 are routinely available for $10 or so. The only cards I'd personally submit for this set (assuming I wasn't expecting a 10 on them) would be Murray, Molitor/Trammell, and maybe the regular Ryan.

The number of high grade cards available of almost every card from this set far outstrips demand, and it's not likely to change soon. If anything, the prices may drop some more as DSL and 4SC continue to submit cards because they pay lower grading fees and still make a profit on the $5 or even $3 sale.

Nick

softparade

1978 Topps PSA 10's have been selling well on and off of e-bay for at least a year now. I have been lucky enough to make some good unopened purchases that yielded many 10's. The result is ALL of my grading fees and nearly ALL of the cost to buy the unopened have been paid for. In the end, I have many many FREE PSA 9's in my registry set because of this! I tend to disagree with the 70's nay sayers. These 70's sets will become more and more popular IN TRUE HIGH GRADE as we move along. Maybe I am just biased but i see it everywhere I turn.

Dan

Stone193

Dan
I understand and like your passion for the 78T set.

However, the 'feel' of the question, IMO, was looking at cards as an investment.

I don't see myself as a nay sayer of any set, as such, but just believe that the late 70s sets are bad investments. Fun to collect tho.

mike

softparade

Mike,

yep, even I wouldn't suggest these cards as investment material. I also don't think the 78 set is "ignored" as jskirwin may believe. I really do think 70's issues like this one WILL be desirable in HIGH GRADE as we move along. With this said, these sets will never become a focal point to the collector worried about value ..

Stone193

I don't see any set as being truly 'ignored.'

I didn't even really see that part.

Personally? I think it's a nice set - in high grade, the cards look nice - simple and sharp.

One thing is for sure - the question of 'investment' will always be part of the fabric of collectibles.

mike

calleocho

ctsoxfan made a freat point about 70's sets...they are very nice, but they are quite common even in high grade.

Even if demand would to skyrocket...supply would easily catch up driving prices down again.

WinPitcher

One thing about these sets is that if you are a collector of them you can get what you want and not pay through the nose. I hear they may be all over the place but yet at the same time true 10's are not.

I would say that these cards are a great value to those that want them.

You won't retire on them but not many sets can say that either.

If you like them that is all that really matters when all is said and done.


Steve

jaxxr

First off, I am pretty sure none of has a Crystal Ball and can tell the future for sure.......

However, in 1974 Topps stopped producing Baseball cards via the series method, and issued them all at once. In 1981 Topps lost its monopoly and other companies began making major baseball card sets. The time span from 1974 thru 1980 is the last of the single rookie cards and is considered by some to be the real end of anything remotely felt to be "Vintage".

Those seven years of baseball cards are not overly rare or truly hard to find, yet they are not part of the following mass overproduced glut starting in 1981 which may neve become worth too much. That time span features rookies of Winfield, Brett, Molitor, Ozzie and Hendo, along with very popular issues of Ryan, Rose, Schmidt, Reggie, and so on.

All cards from 1980 and before are now at least 25 years old ( a benchmark for the general public for Vintage ) and the really big boom in collecting entailing regular price guides, national conventions, and such, had just started. Perhaps in five, ten, or X amount of years, the 74-80 sets will become tough to assemble and rise in value / desireability. It's natural that when most people reach their early thirties, their discrentionary or "extra" income reaches a higher level, that combined with the fact that most people now 35 years of age, or better, were kids in that era and have a natural association with most of the players shown on the cards, they might represent a new influx of interest in those sets fairly soon.

1978 was the original point and has some interesting features. ALL cards made from 74-80 had a bit of quality control problems, as Topps was a bit casual about it since there was no altenative source. While 78s may not be overly rare a well-centerd 9 or 10 is still pretty difficult to come by. A study of the population reports show some real low quantity cards. The rookies of Molitor and Murray, and to a lesser degree Morris and Whitaker should alway create some demand, superstars, specific players, specific teams also keep the interest going. In 78 Topps added 66 cards to the set so it should also be thought of a bit more comprensive and complete when compared to 74-77.

No knows for sure, but if you enjoy the set, it is probably a reasonable venture, and will provide great fun, and frustration as well.

softparade

<< <i> The time span from 1974 thru 1980 is the last of the single rookie cards and is considered by some to be the real end of anything remotely felt to be "Vintage".

>>



I like to refer to them as semi-vintage! This time period mentioned (1974-1980) I have said before is the twilight zone between true vintage and modern cards. It is just very silly to refer to these cards as "modern"

jskirwin

Investment is NOT part of the equation for me. I'm a collector. While I am selling stuff I don't want, I use the $$ to pay for stuff I do want.

I mostly collect raw and good buys on gradeds, and the more I wheel and deal the more I appreciate the '78 set. It's big, full of stars in their primes, and is a pretty sharp set with some solid rookies.

Yet the cards don't sell for much.

So I'm thinking that if I started a graded set, this one might be the one to do. It seems that one could go for 9s and even some 10s without risking divorce.

WinPitcher

A quick look at the registry showed me that around 40-50 folks are building the set. Sounds like it is a desirable issue (at least to them) I would imagine with that many people building the set that from time to time some intense bidding could go on for certain cards. All in all I feel it is a set worthy of building (if you like it) Many of the people that collected that set as kids are now around 35 - 40 yrs old. Not quite at the time of life where disposable income is at its best ( for many). The next 10 years should tell us more in that regard. In any event one can never go wrong in collecting a set that they like. JMO

SD

calleocho

"No knows for sure, but if you enjoy the set, it is probably a reasonable venture, and will provide great fun, and frustration as well."

I just dont buy the whole premise that 74-80 sets will see such an increased demand that sets will ever become rare.

T-206 and 33 goudeys are sets that no one collected when they were kids and they are among the most collected and the ones with the highest apriciation money wise.

70's sets are only rare in top high grade 9 +

they are fun and inexpensive ...but probably they will never be a reasonable venture. (money -wise)

WinPitcher

T-206 and 33 goudeys are sets that no one collected when they were kids

Cal do you mean when we were kids? or when they were kids?

If you meant when they were kids how did all the examples survive? surely some kids saved them.

please expand on what you meant.

Steve

jskirwin

<< <i>I just dont buy the whole premise that 74-80 sets will see such an increased demand that sets will ever become rare.

T-206 and 33 goudeys are sets that no one collected when they were kids and they are among the most collected and the ones with the highest apriciation money wise.

>>



This is one reason whY I directed the question to '70s collectors. There are many in the hobby who don't like the '70s. We all approach this hobby for different reasons, and I respect that.

If I had a T-206 or 33 Goudey collection, it would be consigned so fast it would make headlines. I have no connection to those cards; no desire to own them beyond their $$$ value which I would convert as quickly as possible into cash.

But I have Lou Brock's autograph. I remember watching Pete Rose join the 3000 hit club on TV. The '70s cards are little talismans of time that mean something more to me than $$$ and SMR values.

softparade

<< <i>


they are fun and inexpensive ...but probably they will never be a reasonable venture. (money -wise) >>



true!

I love the 70's Topps issues. In my case, 1978 Topps is my favorite set. The fact that you can still get a hold of unopened product without breaking the bank makes it so much fun. I am a collector who probably will never collect a set that I can't rip packs for. Except the Topps Civil War News set ..... I really like those too!