Midwest Collectors - How is the economy affecting the hobby?
ndleo
Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭✭
I live in the metro Detroit area and the hobby has slowed down significantly. It wasn't that hot to begin with, but I expect another round of stores, dealers, and hobbyist to cash out. I think the economy is finally taking a toll on non-essential spending like cards.
The decline of the auto industry is obviousily the main cause for this area, but I'm curious to see if other areas are feeling the same thing.
The decline of the auto industry is obviousily the main cause for this area, but I'm curious to see if other areas are feeling the same thing.
Mike
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However, there are collectors out there sitting on mountains of unopened material. I know several collectors in their 50's that are sitting on tons of unopened stuff. Some of them are slowly unloading their inventories and others are sitting on them for whatever reasons they have. There are also vintage collectors that are sitting on some really quality vintage cardboard as well.
Hobby on a smaller level may be declining, but for those w/ wallets and inventories that demand big $$$$, hobby is as strong as ever.
IMHO
Julen
RIP GURU
I live in the Northern Virginia area and the economy is still darn good. Unemployment is 1/2 the national average
here. However, card collecting as a whole, is in decline. I just returned from the hobby after 10+ years and
prices are NOTHING like the early 1990s. That being said, the vintage and high quality will always sell, but
they are in the minority. We need to get the kids involved again with affordable packs an fewers sets.
Julen - you are right on about the unopened material. Man, folks still have cases and cases of this stuff. This is
another reason that prices for most modern (post 1980) stuff will remain flat.
I enjoy card colleting so the investment side of it is not a concern.
Tom
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
For example...before the internet, how often did you come across things like 1969 Topps Supers or 1971 Topps Greatest Moments? How often did you see a hat signed by your favorite player? In 1986, it was even difficult to find a new box of Donruss! Yeah, we all saw those things sparatically...but I can search a few sites and find nearly anything I am looking for.
Of course poor economics will hurt any retail industry. The sales of all non-essentials will decline and people will look for more affordable ways to buy what they want.
I would say that 80% of my purchases in the past 5 years have been online.
-The minimum payments for credit cards are going up. Considering the number of people that are barely making it in this country, it could hurt spending.
-Gas prices and inflation in commodities.
-The overall state of the economy. We all know the numbers here. Look at the looming pension crisis.
The biggest problem is working off the excesses of the 80's and 90's boom. The high end stuff will still do well. But the post '80 market will feel the worst of it.
SD
<< <i>I have little interest in politics...but how can we get rid of George W?
You won't have to do anything...he's doing that to himself. Just look at all the major scandals erupting around him (de lay, frist, cheney)...add in the fact he's going insane and back to drinking, he'll have a breakdown soon.
Onto the economy question.
Many businesses will notice a slight downturn when fuel goes up and some may even fare worse.
In my neighborhood, I have noticed that people decrease their spending when gas goes up.
mike
I think the middle market, where most of us reside, is going to get hammered. Before people would just buy less or move down market (PSA 7 instead of an PSA 9), but I see less activity across all levels. I think the market will come back, but I'm not sure we have it bottom yet.
I think the modern market is going to get killed. I can't see the $100+ boxes and $500 packs selling well. I wonder if the card companies are going to reduce production. I doubt it since they owe payments to the greedy leagues and players (that is the biggest reason for all of the yearly products). Topps has been getting by with all of the retro style products, but I don't know how many vintage issues they can use before it loses its steam.
"The hurricanes barked, but they didn't bite," said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit. "Obviously, what they gained was a result of higher oil and gas prices, which more than offset the impact of lower (production) volume."
The oil companies have finally figured out the magic formula to make more money with less product. Hell even drug dealers can't increase profit without selling more product.
Think about that next time you fill up and can't buy any more cards.
Think the leagues will lower their licensing fees to keep Topps and UpperDeck competitive during the next downturn?
I'd be curious as to why you think the hobby is slowing down here. I can only assume you're referring to a decline in attendance at the Gibraltar shows, in which case I think the problem may be with the Gibraltar dealers and not with the hobby at large.
The problem with Gibraltar is the dealers. They basically split into two camps: a) guys selling VG-EX 50's and 60's star cards, or b) guys selling crappy modern inserts and autos (Dan Gladden autos, Mark Eaton jersey cards, etc.). Last time I was there I was looking for a Lebron RC. ANY Lebron RC. And you know how many I found? ZERO. Not a single dealer had a RC of the hottest basketball player on the planet. Also, nobody had any RC's of Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Josh Smith, Dwyane Wade, etc etc. Believe me when I say the list goes on.
When I look at the dealer's stock I'm struck by the notion that what we see here is are essentially the parts of different collections that people are willing to part with. There's no sense that anyone is giving any thought to what the customer may want, and is stocking their showcases accordingly.
Your point about poor inventory is valid. I was looking for Kevin Jones and Roy Williams cards at the start of the season and there were very few to be found. The problem with Gibralter is that buyers won't pay for quality cards, so dealers end up moving them thru the internet or to other markets were people pay higher prices. The poor economy in Detroit probably contributes to the unwillingness of buyers to pay top dollar.
Personally I think one of the Gibralter shows will go away.
A) There's just simply too much product out there...the shelf life of new wax is about a month...if that...
C) the vintage market and unopened market has been and will continue to be the strong hold of the hobby!! The market is only as bad as the people in it....with a down economy, how many people spent 1,000's of dollars this month with the 70's Special??? How are the strong auction houses making all time high numbers, if the hobby is in such decline??
D) Yes, the 1980's were banner years for most..but honestly..that product overload deserves to die!! I know people who spent HUGE money "investing" in late 1980's material. These are the same people who still come in my store and tell me how bad cards stink and what a horrible marke it is.....NO, they just made bad desicions!!
E) Gas and heating bills...credit card debt....oh yah...we are ALL here on this one. But honestly, if my heat bill here in MA goes from $1000 a season to $1500...is that $500 the downfall of my collecting and spending habits?? NO WAY....it just means I spend a little less, or pull a set out of hiding and let it fly...
F) with the steriod scandal, people are saying the market is doomed.....yes, it has taken a hit...but in reality, the stars that are affected are the mid-80's to present cards, that are massed produced anyways...they deserve to take a hit! You could've gotten 1986 Topps Traded cases for $800 just over 2-3 years ago...now with Bonds reaching huge numbers...they soared..add the controversy...slam...they should be back down..yes, alot got ripped to grade...but there are still tons of cases out there. As is the case with most newer product. Don't shoot me here...I know there are alot of good products ot there...2000 SP Authentic FB, for one....1993 + 1994 SP baseball...
G) shows and local shops are affected by the internet....if a shop isn't on the net, then shame on them and they have no excuse to cry. A good dealer will use this to his/her advantage and sell to all parts of the country and beyond. Yes, to run a local store is TOUGH..but to think you can make it on just that alone..heck no!! I recently opened a store...mainly for storage and hoping that having the doors open will bring on some good material to buy!! My email and online business is now out of my house and I'm not tripping on packing material and over 5,000 ct boxes anymore. But do I think this store will make it soley on it's own?? NO WAY!! It's hard to sell to 50-100 customers coming in the door each week..you HOPE you have what they want..and you hope to see more kids too!! But you can't look at that 50-100 people and pray to make a living...they are in the same economic spot as you.....you have to reach out to thousands...and still pray....lol
F) the shows in general in all areas are tough..I've walked many many a floor with thousands of dollars in my pocket..and left without spending a dime. Some shows have almost gotten into a flea market atmosphere. There are still good shows around....but it comes down to the fact that these same dealers ARE selling on the net..or grading those hard to find cards...the only thing left to sell is the middle of the road stuff. Unless, you hit major show and have a few nationally known dealers there with the right stuff..the local shows are spotty at best.
Now if any or all of these reasons bring people to the point where they think the market is doomed...I say, do a little more research...look at product and spending habits just llike the stock market....and re-adjust your strategies!!
We all know people who we dream about having their stock...and people say that if they had it they would sell it immediatley. I've been trying to buy one guy out here in MA for 10+ years now. I've spent endless weekends poking through product and cases and cases....box after box...set after set...
He hasn't sold but $10K in the last 10 years, but is probably sitting on a million $$ plus AND still paying $600 a month for storage. He doesn't want to let it go yet....for what reason(s), only he knows. I know he has little into it...is past retitirement age...and constantly complains about the cost of the warehouse each month..the cost of fuel to heat the place..the cost of fuel to drive there...no time to sort it...and so on and so on.
At last tally, I had offered him $300K...and he balked.....
With that said.....I'm starting to think that we as dealers/collectors all just like to whine!!??!! Whether it's about the economy..the card market...and the grades we thought we should've gotten...or maybe just maybe about the White whale of a deal that just keeps eluding us....
If anything is driving money away from this industry, it's the fraud and deception that have become so commonplace. Counterfeits, Gem Elite/CSA/Pro 10's, "million" dollar mystery lots filled with 10 cent cards or creased up vintage, high dollar sgc/bgs/psa/gai cards from dealers who have hordes of evidence of trimming's in their submissions almost every time, paper cutouts, embellished or intentionally misleading descriptions, after market cards, dutch auctions, sellers who don't deliver, fraudulent chargebacks, manufacturers promising one thing and delivering another...all these things take their toll. If you scroll through all the different card sections on ebay, it's gradually becoming a 24 hour scam-a-thon.
Not only does the cash that scammers rake in usually not find it's way back in the marketplace, but the "victim" often leaves as well. Then there's also the people who constantly witness this activity and leave out of general disgust. Now, obviously, with some of the examples above, this probably wouldn't apply, but you get the point.
<< <i>Boo - The Gibralter show is one area look at, but I also attend every show listed in the Free Press and some shows outstate. I also talk to store owners in the area.
Your point about poor inventory is valid. I was looking for Kevin Jones and Roy Williams cards at the start of the season and there were very few to be found. The problem with Gibralter is that buyers won't pay for quality cards, so dealers end up moving them thru the internet or to other markets were people pay higher prices. The poor economy in Detroit probably contributes to the unwillingness of buyers to pay top dollar.
Personally I think one of the Gibralter shows will go away. >>
I don't doubt that people won't pay for quality cards. But they will pay for decent cards prices less than 20$. One dealer about eight months ago just cleaned up selling raw 86 TT Bonds cards. Said he'd grossed $800 on those cards alone, since nobody else at the entire show had any.
No 86 TT Bonds cards? C'mon, man. That should just be a staple in anyone's showcase. Yet the Gibraltar crowd just doesn't get that. I'm going to go to the next show, and I'll bet you anything I don't find any Sidney Crosby cards-- not even any $5 cheapies. Those dealers just have to do a better job of putting stuff out that people actually want to buy.