Are modern coins officially dead?
Mistercoinman
Posts: 1,820 ✭✭✭
I have been tracking the auctions of modern coins and have noticed that prices are in a steady decline. I was just wondering if any one else has noticed or really cares. That part of the market was how I funded most of my collection, and will put a damper on my future spending. I have especially seen this in the Kennedy and Roosevelt series!!
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Russ, NCNE
WS
My opinion is moderns are on the decline because they are getting impossible to collect. Pcgs isn't grading any more pop tops whatsoever, all the previous graded ones are in collections, and whenever one does get sold, it's an overgraded piece of junk compared to how pcgs is grading now.
Edited for spelling.
after being suppressed for the last year and a half or two. That price decline was probably
caused by a large influx of supply as speculators and a few tired bulls dumped material into
a very strong market. While the market was (and is) very strong, it is still very small compared
both to the other coin markets and the original mintages of most of the moderns ('65-'98).
The stirring now are interesting since one is left to imagine that the supply is mostly exhausted
and there are virtually no raw moderns left and, more importantly, no supply remaining in the
hands of speculators.
It should also be remembered that while wholesale prices of these raw coins are lower than in
the past, that larger and larger percentages are trading at retail prices. Selling such coins at
retail was virtually unheard of a few years ago but now the only sellers who seem to be able
to maintain inventory are selling at double bid or more. When (if) the market can no longer sup-
ply these dealers the price increases will be dramatic.
And if you want to check if an area is off just try buying a PCGS MS66 or MS67 Washington from the late 1980's or early 1990's. The PCGS price guide for these shows thay are woth $25 to $30 in MS66 and the last couple I tried to get I was outbid in the $80 range.
So are moderns dead? No, but they are from time to time on the sickbed. Remember average Joe is the biggest collector of moderns. You see, average Joe can't afford the classics no matter how much he admires them. And things like back to school costs, gas prices, vacation, and Christmas are things he has to spread the costs out over the months.
You cant say that's dead.
">Franklin Halves
">Kennedy Halves
Demand continues to outweigh supplies.
So modern coins in my eyes,
are not dead.
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You need to look at your history to understand what is happening.
Here is an example of what happened to the prices of the 1932 to 1940 Washington quarters series when they matured from modern coins to classic coins.
Please note that I have used the "Red Book" by R.S. Yeoman to provide a consistent comparison.
1951-2 Red Book, 4th Edition / Unc. Note: the 3rd edition Red Book was the 1949 Red Book!!!! At this point the 1932 to 1940 Washington quarters ranged from 11 to 19 years old. Thoroughly modern George!
1932-= 1.75
1932-D 32.50
1932-S 17.50
1934-= 2.75
1934-D 2.50
1935-= 2.50
1935-D 2.00
1935-S 3.25
1936-= 1.75
1936-D 9.00
1936-S 2.75
1937-= 1.50
1937-D 1.50
1937-S 3.50
1938-= 1.50
1938-S 2.50
1939-= 1.50
1939-D 1.50
1939-S 2.25
1940-= 1.50
1940-D 2.25
1940-S 1.00
Now look at the values of the same series subset in 2005. The Washington quarters are no longer "modern" as they now range between 65 and 73 years of age.
2005 Red Book, 58th Edition / MS-65.
1932-= 400.00
1932-D 24000.00
1932-S 6500.00
1934-= 125.00
1934-D 1500.00
1935-= 120.00
1935-D 900.00
1935-S 300.00
1936-= 90.00
1936-D 1500.00
1936-S 400.00
1937-= 100.00
1937-D 150.00
1937-S 300.00
1938-= 250.00
1938-S 225.00
1939-= 60.00
1939-D 100.00
1939-S 300.00
1940-= 75.00
1940-D 300.00
1940-S 70.00
Take a look at the 1934 -P and 1937-S and compare them to the 1934-D and 1935-D. The 1934-P and 1937-S were semi-keys back in 1951 and were more expensive than the 1934-D and 1935-D but have faded badly from the scene. The 1934-D and 1935-D have come on strong in the last 20 years.
It takes years for modern coins to sort themselves out. What was rare and expensive in 1951 was not necessarily so rare and expensive many years later. Collectors need to be aware of this "sorting out process." Values will rise and fall within specific dates in the series just as in the moderns. But dead? Hardly. Will they appreciate? Some or most yes; some or most may not. That is the trick of figuring out which ones will do best over a 50 year span.
*****The key is sticking around that long to find out !!!!*****
Your post makes good sense, as do most post here. It seems that the answer to the question is NO!! They may be a liitle sleepy but far from dead. So what's everyone collecting these days?
Dan,
I'm glad to see a Roosey buddy in here, I see you have made some upgrades lately to your set!
No Way are moderns dead. As a matter of fact, I collect Modern as a series, and all other high grade " key " coins as type.
Doing it this way, I make money EVERYTIME that I buy or sell.Trying to put together a " sludge " set of traditional coins , that I can't give away later on has ceased to be my objective.
All anyone has to do is look at COMPLETE sets of large cents or morgan dollars in the registry. They almost don't exist. I must admit,I did the same thing, until I learned better.
It's ok to collect that stuff in low grades, if you don't care if you ever get your money back . However, collecting the " keys " as type, and modern as a series has produced a profit Everytime.
<< <i>AHH the price list. A lot better than the old one, but still needs tweaking from time to time. And as the red and green arrows show, they are doing just that. Roosies as an example.. Old list showed 1970 ms66 at $15.00, they sold for $100.00 - $175.00. I lost a bid at $150.00 won another a few months later at $115.00 and was very happy. Now the list shows $70.00, and even with a couple more being made, that seems like a fair price. I now have 4 since I submitted three myself a while back. And by last count 7 of the top 15 Registry sets, including the # 1 and # 3, had lesser grades for 1970 than ms66. But prices being as soft as they are Roosevelts, I won't put them up for auction and give them away. With my income I have no choice but to recover the costs involved with buying the rolls along with submission and shipping costs. Not to mention ebay costs, and paypal taking a bite.
So are moderns dead? No, but they are from time to time on the sickbed. Remember average Joe is the biggest collector of moderns. You see, average Joe can't afford the classics no matter how much he admires them. And things like back to school costs, gas prices, vacation, and Christmas are things he has to spread the costs out over the months. >>
Great post!
I have countless Roosies to send in to be graded, but I get HAMMERED every time! I was told by a good friend to lay off sending in Roosies for now until PCGS loosens up. Now that seems like a bad thing to do, but here is why I've decided to hold for now:
I had a 1966 PCGS MS65FB, and up-graded to an MS66FB. So what to do with the undesirable 5FB, I sent it to my "Friend" and it was seen as a great up-grade potential. It was "Cracked-out" and re-submitted raw. Guess the grade...yep MS66! "Where's the beef?"
By the way, making 3 1970's in 66 is quite the "make" Best I could do is a few 65's.
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
If PCGS stays tight on the pre-'64 coins, I think these coins will at least hold their own.
William S. Burroughs, Cities of the Red Night
Like she said in My Cousin Vinney.."that's a BS qauestion"
It assumes modern crap ever was alive.
Something's are better left unsaid. With a sign line like that it's obvious to all what your comments are worth!!
if all collectors could set their bias---i really mean hatred!!---aside about the Modern market and comment/study/watch with the same intelligence and keen powers of observation as they do with other segments, the entire hobby would be better informed and well rounded.
Ira
<< <i>He's a lawyer and likes to throw his weight around on this forum. >>
And, he has a LOT of it to throw around.
Russ, NCNE
Remember collect what you like, thats what keeps it fun.
IMHO...I don't think "modern crap" is dead at all. I continue to collect high grade modern material, it too will be "old high-grade crap" someday.
xXx
People can only be shat on so many times before they give up and switch collecting gears.
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
<< <i>PCGS's inability to consistently apply strike superlative's is a big part of the perceived weakness.
People can only be shat on so many times before they give up and switch collecting gears. >>
It's unbelieveable, isn't it? You should join the new, "Well Struck Coin Galaxy" club! So far, there are 3 members that belong to the club. CladKing, myself and my cat! Last week I bought him some glasses and a typewriter and made him secretary of the club. So don't look for the first club newsletter too soon but if you would like to join, just say aye!
Leo (former President of the WSCG)
Was this last post off the wall or what?
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>The stirring now are interesting since one is left to imagine that the supply is mostly exhausted
and there are virtually no raw moderns left and, more importantly, no supply remaining in the
hands of speculators. >>
I can't begin to imagine.
How nice is it?
Here is where the controversy occurs. Although general guidelines have been published defining the various grades of uncirculated, it is probably impossible to consistently interpret grade differences and when this fact is combined with personal preferences and experience, a nickel's (coin's) grade can be seen differently by different collectors and dealers. (And the argument continues today!)
Even the commercial coin grading companies vary in their standards, (they even contradict their own published standards) and so we see the phenomenon of the same coin, sold for different prices depending on the grading service that assigned the grade.
I could insert my own opinion but instead I will leave it to the numismatic fraternity to argue about it. One thing is certain- ultimately the determination of grade and price is between the buyer and seller, and if both are experienced, ultimately the price is the indicator of how nice the coin is.
I believe this statement could be the belief behind the "Well Struck Coin Galaxy" club, WSCG! Thank you XXX for joining up!
Regards, Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
If you think modern collecting is a dead horse maybe you should try buying a 1975 No-S Proof Set. And if you were lucky enough to own one, I'm sure you'd find a buyer should you want to sell it.
I am really into searching thru rolls for Lincoln cents right now and occasionally buying a coin for my Kennedy collection. It's all modern stuff and not particularly high grade. I have no problem with that because I have found some really nice modern stuff. I cherrypicked a 1960 lg/sm date Proof cent at a local shop, I found a 2005P Top Pop Lincoln business strike cent, I found in a box of cereal a promotional sacagawea dollar and cent set, I found a nice Kennedy DCam in a sms set and none of them cost me anywhere near what they are worth. I get a lot of satisfaction out of finding these coins myself and I'll either sell them or add them to my collection so I can look at them or show them to other people from time to time.
If you ask me, modern coins are NOT officially dead and NEVER will be!
My EBay Store/Auctions
modern commemoratives will become similar to the commemorative halves from the first half of the 1900's and the Columbians
ignored the moderns and they wish the coins would go away. They deluded themselves into belie-
ving the coins had gone away for generations and then they all suddenly came rushing back. Most
believe that every cent spent on a modern coin comes straight out of their pocket and overlook the
fact that many of those buying moderns today will be virtually the sole source of the demand for clas-
sics in twenty years. They believe the money going to the graders is subtracted right from the value
of their coins and overlook the fact that their coins are highly dependent on third party opinion be-
cause of counterfeiting and other problems unique to classic coins. They fear changes to the grading
system because they know their coins are dependent for sale on independent evaluation. They be-
little and mock those who collect these coins and forget that they won't exist in the future at all if they
aren't collected today. They resent collectors being able to find valuable coins in circulation or in deal-
ers' stock for a small fraction of its value.
It's ironic that some of them go out of their way to bash the moderns in threads and conversations
whilr forgetting that it is not a given that the next generation of collectors will have much interest in
the old coins. It's especally ironic since in a side by side comparison of classics and moderns as a col-
lectible it is the moderns which win on almost every point.
Neither classics nor moderns are ever going really to die but they will wax and wane separately for
another generation until their fates are linked together inexorably.
My EBay Store/Auctions
When I was a 10 year old collecting in 1967, 1932-D quarters were "only" 35 years old. They were Modern Crap in their own right at that time!
Now, 1970 coinage is as old (35 years) as the 32-D was at that time. Now I'm not saying anything more except that 1932-D quarters are a thousand times more common than a 1970 Roosevelt with Full Bands.
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
Another reason why some folks openly denounce moderns, it's the stingy trait of being egotistic to hive off the competition. This scheme is dependent on the flavor of the collector. There will always be this division or constant debate. To each his own. Simple education would help the problem but it's not all that entertaining,
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Yeah man, we all want our 1804 silver dollars in PCGS MS69 holders. And while we'er at it, a cool 1884-S Morgan would be nice in MS69 Satin Finish.
$1 2001S PR Sacagawea
$5 Gold Jackie Robinson
$50 2004 PR Platinum Eagle
These are examples of modern coins which were bought at low levels compared to there value today. The 2004 Platinum $50 sells for over $1500 raw and was originally bought from the mint at about $450 it is only one year old. So the answer is no.
Heck, I'll raise the bid to $2,000 sight-seen for the raw coin resulting in a 300% move up on that coin in less than 9 months (better return than Google) LOL Just PM me this week if you want to sell any!
Wondercoin