MTG: Purchasing Booster Boxes for investments...

AlphaInvestments

Hey ladies and gents!!!

I decided im going to do some diversifing on my magic card investing...I decided to start buying newer SEALED booster boxes....my theory is as follows...

I noticed over the past 5-7 years that after certain expansions or sets go out of print their prices either creep up slowely or they spike and then plateau...

For example...the urza block i used to have about 20 sealed boxes of these 3 sets (saga/legacy/destiny) i sold them all back in the day for around 100.00 each...

Im just saying i notice that booster box prices seem to shoot up and level out and then creep up...this seems to be the pattern i notice...

nesxt question is how do you identify and pick out which sets will do this next...i feel its to late to buy an urza's saga box (350.00 range) and expect it to gain value over the next 3 years...

Any thoughts???

Im currently considering buying...

20 boxes of Unhinged
20 boxes of 8th edition (maybe....?)
20 boxes of each of the Kamigawa set (champions/betrayers/saviors)

and some other ones i can find good prices on...

whats everyone think?

Tromagic

i think for investment maby but for enjoyment ...
+ i don t think it will go up as fast as the old set will.
Bastien

AlphaInvestments

I also can not believe the price of Unglued booster boxes...that is crazy....

GoblinOutpost

Are these ebay prices or store prices?

It's true that the prices do creep back up from my observation also. But the storage space is quite high IMO. 3 cases each new release and you will be looking at a pretty tall stack.

-- Joe

AlphaInvestments

well the spcae factor doesnt bother me at all....but im going to give this a shot....

these are both prices....ebay mostly though

ebay and online prices are the most accurate prices around....

of course local prices will always be higher...due to actual storefront location and a target market.

Ive already ordered 4 boxes so far

-Rudy

tmmoose

Depending on how much risk you want to take, this might be a better investment.

8708014807

Anyone tempted? :-)

Tromagic

Item number: 8708014807
1-There is no picture ... ok he said he can send it but why there is no on ebay ? Because he is afraid some of us see it was pictures taken from an other auction and report him and they close his auction ?
2- He live in USA . Why did he post the auction on foreign ebay ? Because it won t sell for a good price in USA (i doubt on this) ? Because the more far is the buyer the best it is for him ?
3- he don t want paypal, why ? why he want only unsafe payment ? a payment where you can t do nothing if you get robed ?

I would like to see his answers if you offer him to go to his place and open the box in front of him

99.9 % sure it s a scam and 0.01 % he is crazy

tmmoose

I don't think it is listed on a foreign ebay - I just linked to it from ebay.co.uk as that's the site I use to search from.

While I agree it looks a bit suspect, there are reasons why people don't offer paypal on large auctions. Some reasons might be: to avoid large fees on large sales by getting people to pay via bidpay.com or money transfer presumably the buyer has to pay the fees rather than the seller; problems if people decide to call their credit card company to reverse the charge paypal will reclaim the money from the vendors account or freeze the account (see that site I posted on a different thread!). There are some reputable sellers who don't accept paypal from international buyers (e.g. dacardworld.com!). So that isn't a complete deal breaker for me.

As for no picture - that is a bit odd, particularly as on their other auctions they have extremely high res pictures of everything they've sold.

I've dropped them a mail asking for a picture and some of the other questions you mentioned to see what they say! (Not that I'm particularly likely to fly to the US to pick up a box of Magic boosters!)

I never follow these sorts of auctions to see if the seller ever actually gets good feedback or not after the end of the transaction or of they jut mysteriously disappear.

I've certainly seen, looking back through my feedback, people with very high feedback ratings suddenly get a string of negatives and then get chucked off ebay, presumably after someone steals their account or some other problem, so remain very skeptical about buying things like this from people I've not dealt with before...

I'll let you know if I hear anything back!

GoblinOutpost

Looking at some of the recent auctions for the seller of the Beta box, here is a bit of humor for the group. Wouldn't it is NICE if all sellers are stocked up on dual lands to give away.

Auction is for Magic the Gathering UNLIMITED Collection! 780+cards mtg

Q: Hi, if i win the bidding at about 280 $ or more (since it's a lot), can you please throw me in a couple of dual lands or psionic blast or stuff like that?...more
22-Jun-05
A: I have included all the Unlimited cards I own that I have not already sold. I forgot to include that there are no land cards in this collection, so im...more

I had to laugh at whoever made that question.

-- Joe

tmmoose

You never know, maybe if we all asked that a little more often we'd have a lot (no pun intended) of extra cards.

Tromagic

oh yes sorry ... i though it was only in the uk ebay
But still i can t beleve it s real ... he will sell it at low price with no picture and the way he want get paid ...
The only way to get this box is to travel to his place i think
Bastien

AlphaInvestments

yea that is sooo a scam....the guy responded to me saying he cant get me any pics for about 5 days.....

in other news....

anyone know why Unhinged booster boxes are so cheap???? 45.00 shipped a box????

-Rudy

GoblinOutpost

The hype was pretty good on Unhinged, so I would surmise that plenty was printed and ordered. The initial prices were excellent I recall. Then after the fanfare has subside, people moved on to the next set. I think that is 9th Ed. And guess what, Unhinged is not tourny legal, so the demand would surely plummet. On eBay I think I see complete sets for about $40. I remember the best card in Unhinged commanding that price by itself early on (can't remember the card name).

Not many people play ultra-casual MTG. It is really a very small niche.

Anyone else care to venture their view.
-- joe

Tromagic

I think i anderstand the trick for the Beta booster box ... There is no picture of it for one raison i think : What he sell is foreign "beta". It could be with what he say in the text.
Bastien

Osguard

<< <i>GoblinOutpost: Not many people play ultra-casual MTG. It is really a very small niche. >>


I agree with Joe that this has a lot to do with it. Add to it that a "casual" player isn't going to generally shell out large amounts of cash.

I think when we're talking about those novelty sets, it truly has to be a rare run to have any value because I think the numbers of magic "collectors" is very small relative to the number of players. Since anything post-Legends has had very large print runs compared to the number of collectors, the boxes/sets that have increased the most in value are those that have the largest amount of broken or powerful cards in the set.

I haven't looked at box prices in a while, but Urza's block is in that category. It is considered one of, or the most powerful block and tends to fetch the highest prices in sets and boxes. Collectors are too few to have an impact on these prices, it has to do with "players" demand for the cards.

Set prices tend to be high when a set is first released to fill the players playsets, then they drop quite a bit and then stabilize for maybe years. If a set has powerful cards, it then rises slowly after that. Boxes, unless it is a completely horrible set of non-playable cards generally make slow, steady rises over years as stock of the large print runs finally diminishes. If it is a powerful set (Urza's), then it rises faster.

If I were going to invest in boxes, the main thing I would look for is a set that the player community generally considers very powerful relative to the magic universe (all the better if cards quickly appear on the restricted/banned list), buy them from distributors at the lowest box/case price and then sit on them for 3 or more years.

-Tony

Osguard

Has any one verified Bastien's observation that the seller of that "beta" box is being purposefully ambiguous in his description? Does anyone else find it annoying when cards are posted as "Beta" and then hide the "foreign" in the small print? Or do you consider that "marketing?" It is always refreshing to me when people have auctions that are clear and descriptive and not misleading - Steven's and Len's auctions are great examples of that.

Speaking of "foreign BB", I'll ask in a new thread if any of the rest of you gotten into any "foreign BB" collecting.

-Tony

Tromagic

Once you know the trick you look not to get robed
I think it s normal that they put beta in the title for BB foreign because the guys looking for beta can also look for foreign BB, not me though
But of course in the item description if they don t say it s BB foreign then the seller try to rip off buyer.
Like for the auction that Len puted on ebay : there was a time walk Becket 9. In the title they was no PSA. Me when i look on ebay put PSA and look PSA item. Becket is interesting to me. But i would not have seen the becket time walk if there was not the other psa and i did a view other seller item and saw the time walk becket 9.
I think you can miss lot buyer like this.
There is not mislead if you say clearly what you sell in item description.
Bastien

Tromagic

i just recieved this mail from Michael :

Hi Bastien,

I was looking through the PSA message boards today and had another look at
the Beta box on ebay. I think you're probably right about it probably
being foreign.

I had a look at some of the other images stored on the sellers website and
some of them are black bordered foreign cards, see:

http://us.share.geocities.com/aicforme/ebay29.jpg

for an example.

Anyway, just thought I'd let you know. I can't post to the PSA message
board as I didn't bring my username / password with me. (And there is no
way I can remember the password they gave me! :-)

Michael

GoblinOutpost

I took another look at the auction description. Yeah, the seller is very smooth and never claim what language version it is. So really, this is a buyer beware situation. And it must be suspicious that the seller cannot upload but can email the scan. eBay does allow for 1 free pix upload for each auction.

Going off topic (actually to another thread), the issue about using credit card to pay via paypal, ebay actually has the policy that if you are in dispute with a seller and you end up filing claims with ebay, you are supposed to file with your credit card company also. So I guess ebay is expecting the credit card company to cough out the dough first.

-- Joe

Tap4black

Personally I would not invest in any newer releases in the hopes of them moving up any time in the next few years. Several sets are well under cost but there are so many boxes available that it will take a very long time for them to move up, if they ever will. I personally think that boxes in the Invasion block have the best upside for near term increase. These sets will be the cornerstone of the new "Extended" sets and feature some of the most dominate cards of that format (Spiritmonger, Deed, etc..)

The best set for investment in my opinion is revised due to Wizards decision to sanction type 1.5 (Legacy) for their pro tour circuit. I think Dual Lands, especially anything with blue, will continue to climb in price and sealed boxes are getting quite hard to come by as they are now over 10 years old. I personally would rather put the money into better singles as they are still showing tremendous upside as the world of Type 1 magic continues to flourish worldwide. Staple cards like Moxes, Mana Drains, etc that every type 1 deck uses are always going to be in demand.

Len's professional 2 cents.
Tap4black

Thulnanth

Hey Len,



Leave it to the dealer to hit the nail on the head when it comes to the best place to put your money . On a similar note, what do you think of the potential for foils down the road? They don't seem too popular when compared to the non-foil cards - is this once again a symptom of the "player driven" market vs the collector in MtG?

Take it easy,
Jared

tmmoose

Hi Jared,

I was a bit surprised at that myself, I can't remember the stats off the top of my head, but aren't they 20-30x more rare than non-foil cards?

It depends a bit just how many of them there are floating around, but I could quite easily see that in 5 years time, assuming Magic is still going strong, there would be a fairly sizable premium being paid by collectors for older foils. Presumably in much the same way as people who were A/B/U players in their youth have 'grown up' (if that's the right term) have have decent jobs / now collect these high value cards, the same will presumably happen to people playing the more recent sets.

Anyone care to estimate what the number of rare foils of a particular card might be?

If I had any sense I'd start building foil sets now, unfortunately sense was never one of my strong points.

- Michael

tmmoose

Well, that infamous beta box seems to have ended early without sale.

- Michael

Thulnanth

Hey Michael,

I think you are on the right track with the whole rarity/collectability down the road thing. I'm not sure, but if people in a few years decide to put together foil sets, you'd think that they would go up in value, right? At the current time, I just don't think there are enough set collectors to make a difference, even factoring in rarity - that would have to change for the value to go up. I am currently trying to fill out my raw set and got to looking at foils because of that. Whether or not they increase in price someday, I will try to "foil" my sets - they just look cooler .

Of course, now that I've brought it up, everyone will want them and I'll end up paying 10x as much...

Take it easy,
Jared

Tap4black

The novelty of the foil cards wore off quite fast. Originally, foil sets of Urza's Legacy and Destiny sold for upwards of $2000. Anyone remember Ring of Gix? Used to be a $100 foil until people realized that there were a HELL of alot of foils out there. These days, unless a foil card is used in someones type 1 deck (see Goblin Welder) the card is not worth much at all.

Alot of dealers value "junk" foils, even rares, at no more than the price of a non foil equivalent, IF they are willing to purchase them at all.

I do expect Ravnica Foils to do reasonably well though as there are alot of really good usable cards in the first set. The Duals should command $50 forever and you can never go wrong with a Bird. The rest of the set will depend on what type of synergy it brings to the tournament scene as players are still trying to "PIMP" out their decks.

Len
Tap4black

GoblinOutpost

Wow, Len. That is high $$ for Urza back then. Boy am I glad I don't have a huge craving for that (yet).
At first I thought foils are so much more scarce than non-foil rares (1 foil rare per box => roughly 1-to-35 ratio), but after hearing what you said, yeah, there'd still be plenty around with the huge print runs.

-- Joe

MrMoo

I don’t know if it has already been said but I would not buy any of the sets you listed in bulk. They are sub par Magic sets and I doubt that they will increase in price. If you are looking for one to invest in Ravnica is a very strong set. I look for it to be very popular in the future.

Tap4black

Ravnica is indeed flying off the shelves but do not look for it to leap in price for well over a year. As the base set for a block, it will be in print through the entire expansion run. The middle set (Guildpact? Feb 2006 release) is the one that will dissapear from suppliers first and is the most likely for a quick upswing in price IF the set is decent. I would not expect Ravnica to fall below cost like some of the other sets have done recently (8th, Unhinged) to the bargain levels they are now as the set is just too good. At the levels the single cards are selling for today it is almost a money back guarantee to shred boxes IF you have an outlet to move them as we fortunately do. Only time will tell where the market will settle at as more and more of the cards are sold through Ebay.

Len
Tap4black

GoblinOutpost

Here is a comparison of set prices (median) between a Scrye Mar, 2000 issue and a Sep, 2005 issue for those interested. Be aware that Mercadian Masques is as far as the Mar, 2000 magazine goes up to.

2000 2005
$899 $1035 Arabian Nights
$275 $485 Antiquities
$900 $1025 Legends
$135 $120 The Dark
$45 $48 Fallen Empires
$162 $125 Ice Age
$95 $60 Chronicles
$52 $47 Homelands
$150 $95 Alliances
$170 $135 Mirage
$145 $100 Visions
$$100 $80 Weatherlight
$225 $200 Tempest
$150 $98 Stronghold
$150 $115 Exodus
$237 $295 Urza's Saga
$100 $115 Urza's Legacy
$140 $115 Urza's Destiny
$250 $150 Mercadian Masques

I was quite surprise to find that all sets older than Standard format (The Dark thru Exodus) have fallen in prices. Would be nice if someone has a 2002/2003 issue to see if prices have tanked and recovered in 2005.

-- Joe

GoblinOutpost

And for booster box price comparison,

2000 2005
4500 9175 Arabian Nights
900 1725 Antiquities
1080 1695 Legends
312 430 The Dark
60 115 Fallen Empires
97 160 Ice Ages
100 195 Chronicles
65 90 Homelands
140 205 Alliances
85 160 Mirage
125 185 Visions
82 155 Weatherlight
92 345 Tempest
85 150 Stronghold
90 200 Exodus
91 340 Urza's saga
90 320 Urza's Legacy
92 270 Urza's Destiny
93 130 Mercadian Masques

Here, surprise, surprise. Everything has gone up.
-- Joe

tmmoose

For my own entertainment, I worked out what the averega year-on-year return has been for each of those booster boxes. Interesting that pretty much all of them have done better than cash in a bank account.

Presumably if you had yearly information you could see whether particular years were better for particular sets and/or when the growth in value actually happened.

2000 2005
4500 9175 Arabian Nights 15%
900 1725 Antiquities 14%
1080 1695 Legends 9%
312 430 The Dark 7%
60 115 Fallen Empires 14%
97 160 Ice Ages 11%
100 195 Chronicles 14%
65 90 Homelands 7%
140 205 Alliances 8%
85 160 Mirage 13%
125 185 Visions 8%
82 155 Weatherlight 14%
92 345 Tempest 30%
85 150 Stronghold 12%
90 200 Exodus 17%
91 340 Urza's saga 30%
90 320 Urza's Legacy 29%
92 270 Urza's Destiny 24%
93 130 Mercadian Masques 7%

- Michael

Edit: Attempting to sort out formatting - gave up.

AlphaInvestments

Very VERY interesting...

you guys rule....

GoblinOutpost

Hey Rudy. You are the finance guy. Give us some insight here.
-- Joe

AlphaInvestments

Well all those numbers above are quite accurate...

So far I went ahead and purchased 3 booster boxes of the following sets....

4th edition
5th edition
6th edition
7th edition
8th edition
9th edition

Ice age
Chronicles
Stronghold
Exodus
Unhinged
mirroden
betrayers
saviors
champions
Alliances
weatherlight
fifth dawn

im still missing some sets but i havent found good prices on a few others.

I will not be buying the urzas block sets...i feel they have already spiked and leveled.

Every couple years since the dawn of magic...at least 1 out of print expansion takes a spike in price while the others will creep up about 5-10% a year.

Oviously the key is knowing which set is going to spike....

Well in my opinion i decided to eliminte the risk of picking and purchase all lower priced boxes i feel have possibilities of a spike.

Even if all 16 of the 18 sets ive purchsed only increase 5-10% a year...

For example unhinged 45.00shipped i paid in 1 year its worth 49.50 thats still a 10% gain TECHNICALLY (not factoring in indirect costs)

BUT holding assests that have low SAFE risk is not stressful. BUT all it takes is 1 expansion to go from 75.00 a box to 100.00 and youve got a 25% 1 year return.

If you avg the probabilities of 16 sets getting 7.5% and 2 sets getting 15% return your getting a SAFE almost RISKLESS investment

In conclusion...

Combine this with

PSA 10's
Real estate
Individual stock
Mutual Funds
Treasury Bonds
and Certificates of deposits

and you cant lose......

and if some of this sounds a little fishy its b/c i just got done celebrating my 21st birthday partyyyyyyy

lol

-Rudyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy hehe

Spacebaby

Fellas,

I've just listed some alpha, arabians, and beta auctions on ebay. Half hit ebay on Friday and the other half list Sunday. There's some neat stuff, including some spicy psa 10 rares... LOOK a PSA 10 BETA SERRA, MASK, and MOTI! Please look, shop, and let me know if you want to reserve anything. I'll be listing a few more cards over the next two weeks. Lots of nice OLD cards. Take a look:



thanks!

-------------------------
Steven Karpman
SPACEBABY'S AUCTIONS

Spacebaby

I can't resist.

Investing in magic cards is HIGHLY speculative and risky. I personally don't see it as a place to put wealth, I mean real wealth. While the return on investment may seem high, the tracaction costs to realize gain, coupled with very volitile supply chains and consumer demand, create a unpredictable return. I value my cards for the monetary value AND ownership value. Monetary value is not enough for me to consider magic cards a good investment.

Like any highly speculative investment it should make up a very small part of any portfolio. Perhaps one should consider these:

1) Tax free canadian energy trusts - these trust provide a very steady dividend yield with moderate price volitility. most importantly, the dividend income is tax free for us investors. These have done extremely well over the last three years...Where do you think the price of energy is going?

2) Guaranteed Benefit Annuity Contracts - Besides maxing out any 401k or 403b opportunities, purchase tax deferred annuity contracts. Here's an example:
Manulife Financial - Scudder Wealthmark GRib III - allows for tax deferred investments in a series of mutual funds with 3 distrubution options at maturity:
1) cash investment value
2) GRIB value - every aniversary date it sets a GRIB value. If the value of the account declines, the pevious higher GRIB value is used. It goes to 100,000, then drops to 20,000. You can annuitize it at the 100,000 GRIB value.
3) guaranteed 6% per annum growth --- your mutual funds loose, loose and losse...you get 6% guaranteed

3) ROTH IRA - Like the account above, these provided tax benefits. They should be maxed out every year. After tax dollars produce TAX FREE returns. Yearly contributions are capped and maximum income levels apply. They should be maxed as long as contributions are allowed.

4) BUY A HOUSE...If you dont own one, get one. If you got one, get another.The primary residence capital gains tax deduction for a married couple is $500,000. The Bush administration is considering changes to the taxation of real estate and othe assets. Changes in the captial gains rates, limits etc may be forthcoming. Whatever occurs, previous tax status is likely to be grandfathered to current homeowners.

5) as far as stocks... Since 9/11 one thing is for certain. Defense and infrastructure stock are very bullish. Anyone really looked at Haliburton (HAL)... General Dynamics, Boeing, etc. The war on terror has diverted massive resources to defense. Those companies positioned well with needed capabilities are performing well. Irakistan ain't gonna be over soon. We need more bombs.

6) Credit - build it. The finance charges on debt and premiums for insurance are all tied to this. Minimizeng the cost to borrow money and insure assets casn create dramatic cash flow opportunities. All these are based off your credit score. Get rid of consumer debt before you do anything else. It'll save you literally tens to hundreds of thousands on debt that matters (mortgages). It's kind of neat to borrow a quarter of a million dollars at 3.25%...dont you think?

There are lots of places to put money before magic cards. Trust me, I don't intend to retire on the proceeds of my beta set. Although, I will enjoy it in the nursing home.

Peace!

AlphaInvestments

annuities!!! i forgot about those...

wait a second Steven did you say Serra Angel!!!!

OMG finally!!!!!

Ive been waiting like a year for one of these.

where is she!!!

*looks under bed*

must have!!!

Osguard

<< <i>...I don't intend to retire on the proceeds of my beta set. Although, I will enjoy it in the nursing home. >>



Whew! At least I'm not the only one...

GoblinOutpost

Happy Bday Rudy.

Not only are you older, but your MTG collection just ballooned by another 30K (54 boxes worth). We know who to talk to if we want to do some 1.5 drafting.

Did you get all those boxes in one batch? If yes, I'd be interested in knowing what kind of S/H you paid on them?

It'll be nice to see in a few yrs how this investments of yours will pan out.
-- Joe

GoblinOutpost

Hooray, Steven is listing again. More goodies for the rest of us.

Is this sale from your recent submission? In fact, anyone got their submission back yet?
-- Joe

Borst

Alpha,

You just turned 21 and still in college and have all this money to invest in all the PSA 10 Alphas and buy all those unopened boxes?? How do you afford all that?

AlphaInvestments

I started saving money since i was 18 and now im a server on weekends in an elegent resturanat here in Florida, im in class full time during the week and i take all the extra money i make and invest it and slowely snowball it into more and more...and i love real estate. :-)

The girl i used to love for years left me for someone 2 times my age...so anotherwards i have very little expenses and no kids, or major bills and i dont waste money. youd be surprised how much money youll have without that stuff....

and like Steven said....credit and credit cards it KEY....

at least once every other month one of my credit cards rewards me with around a 100.00 cash back....

I charge everything and have incredible credit b/c i pay everything off monthly and reep the rewards of credit cards...and equity

AlphaInvestments

o and shipping is free...

most of the boxes came from DAcardworld/ dealer account/ free shipping

you get beat there best price planet boxes with free shpping.

-Rudy

AlphaInvestments

o and 1 last thing...

last week for example:

2 boxes chronciles on ebay @ 140.00 a box Shipped
2 boxes stronghold on ebay @ 110.00 a box Shipped
1 box exodus on ebay @ 135.00 Shipped

i very happy!

And right now those 2 boxes of revised on ebay...

those babies are gonna be mine....

-Rudy

DelawareDoons

The man is a prophet.

LarkinCollector

There have been just as many false prophets, pumping their wares.

flcardtrader

@LarkinCollector said:
There have been just as many false prophets, pumping their wares.

Enter @Crisser in 3 - 2 - 1...........