When does hoarding effect value of a card??

crsportscards33

I collect pretty much all vintage, with one exception, I have always been a huge North Carolina basketball fan. The only modern cards from any sport that I collect are UNC player auto's in their UNC uniform. My question is this: When does hoarding effect the value of a certain card? For example I've got 8 of a certain auto card that there were only 15 copies made. It's of a high profile rookie from last year's team. I've also got lower percentages on other cards, like say 14 out of 50, and 8 out of 20. When does this effect the price at all? More curious than anything, as I won't sell these, just wanted opinions. Thanks.


Chris

MorrellMan

Chris

I know nothing about this particular item, but since you ask for opinions, here's mine:

Value is increased as the demand increases. If the fact that you have control over half of this auto card creates a shortage in the face of demand, then the value increases. Despite what producers of limited edition cards tell you, value is not based solely on supply - it is based more primarily on demand. If nobody wants what you got, it ain't worth much, regardless of what it is (unless it's currency).

crsportscards33

Mark, that makes sense. I also wonder if since it's a relatively new product if maybe people won't realize it's in short supply for a while?

Allen

Never- Just like the guy who had all 30 of the Certified Mirror Golds of that one hockey player.

dgbaseball

I think I probably own just about 90% of all the 1985 Topps Baseball Eric Davis RC ever produced.

Or as I like to call it, my retirement fund.

I'd think if the cards are popular and recognized as unique - and remain popular and show up on registry sets etc - the demand will obviously be there and you'd be in great shape. But scarcity doesn't necessarily = value of course, as noted by others, and it's all about the demand. Limited supply doesn't create either demand nor value in this industry. I'm pretty sure I've got all 10 of 10 obscure issues of something I picked up as a kid somewhere, but since no one else knows they exist, and there are suitable and more desireable similar replacement cards, they're essentially worthless.

MorrellMan

<< <i>I think I probably own just about 90% of all the 1985 Topps Baseball Eric Davis RC ever produced.

Or as I like to call it, my retirement fund. >>



- I've got the other 10% - see you in Miami.

jmbkb4

Case in point.

There is a guy who is, literally, hoarding 1993 Finest Refractors of #3 Bryan Harvey. Harvey is rumored to be a SP card, which means he was selling at $50-$75 about 3-6 months ago. Recently, an eBayer has started to hoard this player (paying over $800 for a PSA 10 and up to $300 for raw copies).

For individuals collecting sets of 1993 Refractors, this will substantially increase the value of Harvey cards from here on out, due to the fact that more and more indviduals will be building sets.

So, if the demand is there and the product is reasonably limited, hoarding can drastically affect an item's price/value.

mikeschmidt

<< <i>

So, if the demand is there and the product is reasonably limited, hoarding can drastically affect an item's price/value. >>



Except if you are the hoarder. Once you decide to sell - you will see that the run-up in prices was artificial, and your net from sales will be less than your net expended on purchases.

rlankhaar

<< <i>Except if you are the hoarder. Once you decide to sell - you will see that the run-up in prices was artificial, and your net from sales will be less than your net expended on purchases. >>



Exactly - didn't the same thing happen with the Andre Dawson refractors? And really, how many people are willing to pay the inflated prices right now on the Harvey? It's the same 3-5 guys who keep bidding the card up. The average refractor seems to be going for $10-$30 right now (side note-for those that follow these, are prices dropping from the mass of refractors on ebay in the last year?). I doubt the average set collector is willing to pay 5x or more than that for something that is artifically inflated.

Tipem

<< <i>

<< <i>

Except if you are the hoarder. Once you decide to sell - you will see that the run-up in prices was artificial, and your net from sales will be less than your net expended on purchases. >>





That statement is about as correct as you will ever read !!!



Vic

onlychild

There once was two men. Each owned the only black tulip bulb in existance. The value of each was high. At some point one man bought the other black tulip bulb from the other. Before the seller could leave, the buyer promptly put the second tulip bulb on the ground and crushed it with his foot. The value was then priceless.

Take your hoard and publically destroy all but one or two.

Kevin

NickM

If you can pick it up without people realizing that you have hoarded the card and without driving the price up much in the process, and then release it slowly into the market, you can take advantage of your control of much of the supply as long as the demand stays sufficiently high.

Good luck.

Nick

crsportscards33

Thanks for the input. Like I said, not wanting to ever sell these, it just got me thinking of other instances. I think the other variable in this equation is the fact that they are rookies. If they start the year on fire, more people will start looking for these cards and won't be able to find them.

jmbkb4

<< <i>

<< <i>Except if you are the hoarder. Once you decide to sell - you will see that the run-up in prices was artificial, and your net from sales will be less than your net expended on purchases. >>



Exactly - didn't the same thing happen with the Andre Dawson refractors? And really, how many people are willing to pay the inflated prices right now on the Harvey? It's the same 3-5 guys who keep bidding the card up. The average refractor seems to be going for $10-$30 right now (side note-for those that follow these, are prices dropping from the mass of refractors on ebay in the last year?). I doubt the average set collector is willing to pay 5x or more than that for something that is artifically inflated. >>


Answer to your side note: Yes. Many sellers/"hoarders" are dumping their collections currently. I'm lovin' it and am making some great buys right now.

jmbkb4

<< <i>

<< <i>

So, if the demand is there and the product is reasonably limited, hoarding can drastically affect an item's price/value. >>



Except if you are the hoarder. Once you decide to sell - you will see that the run-up in prices was artificial, and your net from sales will be less than your net expended on purchases. >>


Your statement assumes that there is an infinite amount of product and that the "hoarder" will resale in a given period of time; eventually, the individuals may be able to "name his price."

For the duration of the "hoarding," individuals who want to complete sets will have to pay dearly for the item in question.

Buccaneer

I agree with MorrellMan - it is the demand that drives up prices, more than limited supplies. Take a look at some of the T-206 (e.g., Plank) or other very rare issues - rarer than the famous Wagner. A more famous very scarce card has a much higher demand than a less famous very rare card.

mikeschmidt

<< <i>
Your statement assumes that there is an infinite amount of product and that the "hoarder" will resale in a given period of time; eventually, the individuals may be able to "name his price."

For the duration of the "hoarding," individuals who want to complete sets will have to pay dearly for the item in question. >>



Absolutely not. If you decide that you want to "hoard" an issue, in the long run it will likely cost you. Let's say that you want to purchase 'all' the 1993 Finest Refractors of Nolan Ryan. You start your quest today. Essentially - with every incremental purchase, you will likely have to pay more and more for each subsequent refractor, as you set the market price the first time you purchase one - and each subsequent one you purchase will likely cost about the same or more. After you start to purchase many of these [let's say 30] - you have now artificially dampened the long-term supply, here by 10-15%, thereby creating increased demand/price for the ones that remain 'on the market'.

Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that you are able to purchase a total of 200 of these refractors. By the time you have purchased that last incremental refractor [#200] - you will likely have paid a dear price for it, and your average price paid will be very very high. All the meanwhile, you have probably driven away other player collectors and set collectors because of the increasing impossibility to complete this set because of said hoarders such as yourself. If and when you decide to sell - since you are no longer in the market from a buy side, prices will automatically be depressed. Then, as you sell each subsequent example, you will realize less and less each time.

Put another way, ceteris parabid [everything else equal] - hoarding in and of itself does not affect the value of the card. It simply cannot. Imagine if you put an ad in SCD that said the following:

"$1 million cash for authentic T-206 Honus Wagners". Since that price is well and above the market value of all the Wagners except for one (or two), let's presume, for the sake of argument that you get a bunch of takers. Let's say 20 in this instance [and assuming that you have $20MM to bankroll this idea]. So now you have 20 Honus Wagner cards. Yes, if another Honus Wagner T-206 comes up for sale in the next few months - it will likely realize higher than the going price before you hoarded. Let's say that it's a PSA 1 and it realizes $175k, with you not bidding on it, because now you're broke.

But if you decide to sell all 20 of your Honus Wagner cards, the price will mean-revert. E.g. the price will go back to exactly what it was (or less) before you bought all the cards - and, in this extreme example, you will have lost serious money, as the card is not a million dollar card.

~ms

eadams24

I always thought if I were a retired athlete with a well sought after card, say Pete Rose, I would slowly buy many of my RCs. Using different ebay names and such, it would be possible to keep it quiet. It'd be a an interesting experiment to see what would happen to the price of the card.

jmbkb4

MS,

If word gets out that someone is attempting to "hoard" a particular card, people will pay/bid more, and this drives the price up. I may not win every auction for the cards I'm "hoarding," but when there is scarcity (even if perceived), people will pay/bid more. This is the nature of the Collecting Beast.

Case in point. The collector who's "hoarding" the Bryan Harvey sets his snipe service at $X for every raw Bryan Harvey. Eventually, people are going to figure this out and bid 1.15X in order to win. There is a perceived scarcity of this card that has driven up the price astronomically.

I never asserted that you could profit handsomely from "hoarding" an item. I did want to make the point, however, that, as the item is being hoarded, prices will rise moderately-to-significantly.

Just my $0.02.

CDsNuts

It depends on what is being hoarded. The Pat Verbeek Mirror Gold is a good example of something not to hoard. If I were going to do this, I would hoard a collectible player from a collectible and limited set that might be a little underpriced. Basically, you want a card that will be demanded by as many different collectors as possible (player, set, team, RC's etc...). 93 refractors are through the roof right now so I'd shy away from them. Maybe something like a 1995 Select Artist's Proof Roger Clemens, or a 1992 Stadium Club Hi Jerry Rice.

As you accumulate, slowly start threads on boards like this about how hard is it to get this card and do you know where to find any. Then other people chime in about how they can't find one either and all of the sudden artificial demand becomes actual demand. Then you can slowly start trying to sell them at an exorbitant price and people will happily pay half that "made up price" on ebay because they saw them before at twice that, leaving you with a nice profit. There's a lot of free marketing through the use of smoke and mirrors at your disposal with this newfangled internet. Good bless Al Gore for inventing it.

Lee

mikeschmidt

<< <i> I never asserted that you could profit handsomely from "hoarding" an item. I did want to make the point, however, that, as the item is being hoarded, prices will rise moderately-to-significantly.

Just my $0.02. >>



I'll grant you that. I guess my comment was this - even if prices do increase in the short-to-medium term, my point was this - the prices are being held artificially high - and the whole pricing structure is dependant on how long the hoarder chooses to hoard. My point was this: If and when the hoarder decides to sell, prices will likely drop precipitously, especially as the hoarder starts selling his last few cards.

abc

what if someone "hoards" a major star player (ex: RC's of high-end lebron, SPA tiger woods, BC pujols), all psa 10's, for long-term (say over 20 yrs). As these cards are popular, numbers are limited, would not the supply/demand cycle WITH TIME favor dramatic long-term price appreciation? Assume the "hoarders" are able to hold onto their cards, thereby denying the market of such cards. What would have been realized prices for a fleer jordan RC if there were only about 1000 copies, and maybe 10% of those in high grade (psa 10). Just a thought.

mikeschmidt

20 years you say...?

I've got a HOARDE of 1983 Topps Traded Daryl Strawberry cards. That's just about 20 years ago. And I remember when in the 1990s these cards would go for mega-bucks....

abc

...things did not end up so well for strawberry... I doubt that will happen to lebron, woods, and pujols...

helionaut

Don't forget the demand part of supply and demand. If you're "hoarding" something that no one else wants, prices won't budge. I'm sort of accidentally currently hoarding 2005 UD Origins Old Judge Gold Parallel #/20 #101 Joe Morgan (god, that's a complicated name for a piece of cardboard). I have 3 of the 20 copies now, and a 4th just came up on ebay. For some reason, it's got a hidden reserve on it (I have haven't paid more than $5 for any of my other 3 copies) so I doubt I'll get that copy, but if I really was trying to get it, I don't know how much I'd pay. However, since no one else seems to want one, prices stay flat.

This also assumes that something is "hoardable." For mainstream cards, there are so many produced that it's almost impossible to accumulate enough to affect the market. Pete Rose rookies, Eric Davis rookies, etc., were produced in 10s or 100s of thousands and it's not realistic to really accrue enough to make them scarce. It is possible to move the market, though, even without shortening the supply if you have a known offer to buy. With ebay, a single sale can be pointed to by people all over the world to say,"that's the new market price." So it is possible that if you started consistently paying, I don't know, $10 for an Eric Davis rookie, people would start listing them at that price, and other people might start paying more than their current value for them in order to sell them to you.

calleocho

Hoarding its a very dangerous game ...unless you get enough cards before demands takes off, you will surely lose money.

However...instead of hoarding some people will put a floor on the price of a card...meaning if they bought a card for $100...they might bid 75 next time the card comes around.

Most likely they wont win it ...and if they do i could turn out to be a good deal down the road.

I personally think hoarding a card is boring ...too many cool cards out there to keep buying the same one over and over