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Spacebaby: Why collectors should invest in PSA vintage MtG Magic Cards!

Greetings and Salutations all,

I have thouroghly enjoyed reading everyones comments about MtG over the last few weeks. PSA finally got my password corrected and I want to chime in. I admit that I am a ludite when it comes to blogs and instant messenger. Since this is a topic I am obviously passionate about, I wanted to state clearly why I feel that the premium Magic sets will be truely prized sets in the future and may become one of the most important non sport sets produced. If my comments seem long winded, they will hopefully make alot of sense when I am done, so bear with me please.

Having dealt with almost all the collectors who have posted on this subject, I assume that I am older than about half of you and of similar age to some. The appeal of magic sarted much earlier than 1993. As a teenager in the mid seventies, I remeber being introduced to Dungeons and Dragons before there was even a Players Handbook. As we all know, D&D blossomed into a huge franchise and spawned a whole new genre: the fantasy role playing (frp) games. Thoughout the late seventies and eighties the whole gamer scene was thriving. The con circuit was driven by role playing games. These were the beginnings of magic, as pretty much all true magic collectors are gamers at heart.

Along came the nineties with cheap gaming consoles, pc's and the internet. Zelda morphed into the world of warcraft and the FRP game started their long decline. Yet, these electronic fantasy and scifi games lacked a certain element that was a critical part of the success of FRP games that old school gamers craved: human contact. Many would rather spend and evening gaming with friends face to face that isolated in the digital world of diablo. Now this is where the genious of Richrd Garfield comes in.

Now we gamers have a new game; Magic. It involves a very similar feel ad old D&D but with a fresher newer twist, it was a card game. For the young wizard to memorize that level 9 magicians spell (oh lets say ancestral recall) you had to have the card. That means you had to buy product. All of us can attest to the lure and draw of MtG from a gamers point of view. If I can amass more spells and power, then I win...hahahha...right. Magic gave us a refuge from impersonal video games and unlocked the true imagination of face to face gaming. Based on the growth of magic, it was a successful formula. Those collectors who are not gamers will have a hard time comprehending the metoric rise of MtG prices, because they dont truely understand the gaming aspect.

Ok, now I can get to my serious arguments. First, Non sports sets prior to MtG we for the most part strictly commerative in nature. One collected them because they were interested in the theme or individual. They had no other use besides being memorabelia. Look at the number of different non sports sets and non sports franchises created after 1993. The creation of a whole new genre of gaming we now call customizable card games (CCG's) owes their lineage to Magic. It was the first. It will always be the most prized. Look at pokemon cards values. They fell as yugi oh replaced it. Teenagers all acroos america know magic. They all have heard about the legendary black lotus. How many of them have heard of the 3 stooges??? So as long as CCG's increase their market shares, the grandaddy of them all will be just fine.

Second, because MtG is a game, cards have an intrisic value beyond the physical. Gamers want power, therefore the most powerful card will command a premium. Would you rather have a Birds of Paradise or a Living Artifact? They are both rares. Obviously the Birds win because they are very powerful and useful. Much of the value of the card is based on the relative strengths of the cards within the context of the game. Non gamers need to understand this.

Third, Like any collectible, limited production helps the vintage sets. Jared posted the print runs through arabians. There just are not that many alpha black lotus' created. Additionally, since the most powerful cards were played, this further limits those cards that are desirable for grading purposes. Ask yourself, why is a sol ring so valuable and hard to get in minty condition? Afterall it's an uncommon. That's because every deck needs one. If you owened several, then they were in several secks. These two factors make the vintage magic cards the cream. By the time we get to the Dark, the print runs were starting to get huge for rarity to drive prices.

Fourth, since the base prices for Magic cards are driven by gaming not pure collecibility, the general Magic public is clueless about what true baseball card collectors know very well. Condition matters. It matters alot. Hell, a psa 8 beta rare get me no premium over scrye value. Yet we have all seen cards sold on ebay as mint or gem mint that were far below the condition of a psa 8. I've seen ungrade cards sell on ebay for more than I get for a psa 9 version of the same card. Those buyers are idiots. As psa awareness spreads thoughout the Magic collecting public, the masses will see what mint really means. This in turn will drive up the relative prices of psa graded MtG cards as more people truely understand how had Gem Mint is to truely find.

Finally, the Magic franchise and CCG's as a whole are gaining market share of the card collecting world. It has pumped more life into an industry that was declining. The whole card and toy world has taken notice. Didn't Hasbro buy Wizards of the coast for over $300 million dollars a few years ago? Thats alot of money that says these CCG's are here to stay. And in the end there can be only one beginning: Magic the Beginning...oops..gathering. Economics tells us if the demand for an item increases and the supply remains fixed, the price must rise. Every day more and more people get exposed to magic and games like it. Once the grow up and have disposable income, more and more will want a piece of the original. As far as I know, they aint makin any more beta shivans.

Whew, that's why I have so passioately assembeled my vintage sets. I find them to be a somewhat risky investment with an incredible upside. So lets shuffle the decks and see where they take us.

Hope I haven't put you all to sleep. Good night.
Steven Karpman
"spacebaby" on ebay

Comments

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    image

    and thats a wrap ladies and gentleman....

    imageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimageimage
    Owner of the only solid PSA 10 alpha set BUT only 23% Complete...(not including duplicate 10's)

    Currently 95 Alpha 10's so far...

    8 x Alpha PSA 10 Hypnotic Spector
    3 x Alpha PSA 10 Icy Manipulator
    2 x Alpha PSA 10 Demonic Tutor
    1 x Alpha PSA 10 TimeWalk
    0 x Alpha PSA 10 Black Lotus image
    image
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    Finally, the Legend emerges from his silence...image



    Steven, I am so pleased you finally joined our little party. For anyone out there who never has had the pleasure, Steven (Spacebaby) is one of the good guys!!! Of course, that might also depend on if he is bidding against you at the time - image

    I too remember the good old days playing D&D; we even had a club sponsered by our school where a teacher DM'ed campaigns after school... ahh, the good old days. As a GenCon vet I also remember the craze when this little game of ours broke - everyone was playing it. 50,000 people and you couldn't find an open spot on the ground anywhere in the convention center or neighboring buildings - people playing, trading and sorting cards as far as the eye could see!!! It was a sight to behold.

    There is more I would like to elaborate on in Steven's post, but I'll have to get back later... things to do now - image

    Once again, welcome image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Steven. You are making me feel very VERY old. But it is a joy to read your post. image

    I too remember the good old days of D&D (ok, for me, it is AD&D). I only got into PC gaming (no console for this guy. I want the power from a full fledge keyboard.) Ultima is my all time favorite RPG on the PC. I remember spending hours slugging out on DOOM. Physically dodging the oncoming attacks, as if that will really help. And going to sleep with little flashes of light swirling in my head. I'm almost tempted to go buy DOOM 3 to reminisce the past.

    All I can say is, our little MTG discussion is really looking to be more interesting by the day.

    image

    -- Joe
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    Jeez i feel like the little kid around here...im a 21 year old senior at UNF. i feel like the kid of the group!
    Owner of the only solid PSA 10 alpha set BUT only 23% Complete...(not including duplicate 10's)

    Currently 95 Alpha 10's so far...

    8 x Alpha PSA 10 Hypnotic Spector
    3 x Alpha PSA 10 Icy Manipulator
    2 x Alpha PSA 10 Demonic Tutor
    1 x Alpha PSA 10 TimeWalk
    0 x Alpha PSA 10 Black Lotus image
    image
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    21? ...I remember 21 ...barely. image

    Good times... yep, good times indeed image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    You gotta give the kid credit. He is the only one ABSOLUTELY gunning for perfect 10s.
    -- Joe
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    image
    Owner of the only solid PSA 10 alpha set BUT only 23% Complete...(not including duplicate 10's)

    Currently 95 Alpha 10's so far...

    8 x Alpha PSA 10 Hypnotic Spector
    3 x Alpha PSA 10 Icy Manipulator
    2 x Alpha PSA 10 Demonic Tutor
    1 x Alpha PSA 10 TimeWalk
    0 x Alpha PSA 10 Black Lotus image
    image
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    Hi all,

    I have a two questionsimage

    1) As you have probably seen, I have graded quite a bit of Arabian cards. Almost all of them were 9's or 10's. Many people have emailed me to purchase or trade the cards. While I am not going to give them away, I do want to help fellow magic junkies further their sets and keep the pricing fair and competitive. I have sold more than most on ebay and have a pretty good idea about pricing. In fact, all of you have bought from me before, so I value your opinion. My question is this:

    What is your input on relative pricing multiples for psa 8, psa 9 and psa 10 cards relative to medium scrye value.

    While the multiples for a cheesy common is quite high, and the P9 are much lower, I'm think about the average playable card in the $10- $50 range.

    2) Who will trade me a psa 10 Library of Alexandria? I do have deep pockets and will reward hansomely whoever steps up to the plate and, of course, will include a psa 9 library to replace the 10.

    Will somebody help me out?







    image
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Oh yeah, one more question?

    What do you think the asking price for a complete arabians set with an 9.36 GPA (i will add a psa 9 mountain to complete it?

    null
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Hello Steven,
    I have been busy last week ... i had to send lot cards for grading to enjoy the 5 USD low rate this month ... So i had no time left for the chat image
    I still have the ugly passeword that PSA gave me i got to find it each time i want reply i should ask to change it too image

    first welcome on the chat image

    I started play D&D when i was 8 years old. A friend came back from the USA with a new game call : D&D and then i played role playing game a lot ... The best thing i have ever tryed is real role playing game.
    You go with 300 poeples near a castle. You make weapon that don t hurt to much (at least you try image ) and the guys making the game make a back ground for the game. Each player play the role in the story they made.
    You stay in the game for 3 days and 2 nights arround and when you come back to reality it s like you have made a long dream or you come from an other planete image
    I did this 4 times it was best gaming experience.

    When magic came, i was into the game but there is an other side of magic ... The business side. You buy you sell and try get some money out of the game or try to increase your collection at no cost. It s little bit like a game but it s little bit like a business too ! I remember i was in a place open from 11 am to 4 am. Poeple were playing and trading. Sometime i sold a card in the morning at a price and buy it back at night for half the price i paid on the moring ( i saw it was the card i sold on the morning because of the wear on the card ). Or i remeber i traded 2 cards for 1 cards and then i turn on my chair to the table behind me and i trade one of the 2 card i just got for the card i just gave + some money to buy me a burger ).
    Of couse, it was little money. going to work was making lot more money than this little business. But it was fun image

    I sold everything when they edited collector edition ... I was thinking magic will loose all its value if the edited the old edition again. But i was wrong image

    I have played the massive multiplayer online game 2 years. This is an other kind of game. It takes lot time, a little like the role playing game but it s more addictive because it never stop ... You know when you log out the game is still going on and you loose some power (or don t increase you power) while you sleep or do anything else image
    I was playing the game 14 hours a day.
    And each time doing something in the game take lot time (3-4 hours minimum for any quest, hunt with the other player or fight for the realm)
    I stoped this was not good for real life image

    MTG has changed the cards game, for this, it will aways be the king of the CCG's. And of course i think the set before dark will always get more and more value because they are the original, the more powerfull and the rarest !
    With grading the cards it give a new rule to the game. Before i know this PSA things the best condition cards got lower value because poor or mint is like far or close in the mind of poeple. PSA say what is what. So now the condition get a scale and the value for the best condition came with it.

    I think gaming on computer won t decline. They will have more and more poeple playing it. They just change. You jump from one game to the new one. They last arround 10 years for the best massive multiplayer online game and they die and new one born image
    For the human contact i agree it miss but still you know the guys in your guild very well (if you play with them 14 hours a day for 2 years you bet !). You know there mind very well but your are right the fact that there is a screen between player you miss a big part of what you share with them. In this field the best game it the real role playing game : you share everything (food, fight, drink, bed) for the best and the worth LOL !

    To end Magic is nice to collect and play but i think i need to stay not focus only on this (i think i spend little too much time on this atm LOL ). If you get too much addicted you end up like Gollum.
    By the way the psa 10 Library of Alexandria is My Precious image

    Bastien


    Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.
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    Hey Steven,

    I have thought about this very topic at length, and the whole pricing multiple is really tough to hammer down. Your observation about cheap vs expensive card is so true and the first trick to overcome - cards worth less than the price of grading raw are worth large multiples in PSA 10, while high buck cards are worth relatively small multiples. The next trick to overcome is the base from which to start. I find Scrye to be the most accurate price guide out there. That being said, Scrye's prices are often way off of what the cards are actually selling for. Looking over the Arabians, I think median Scrye is around 50% over what the cards in your price range ($10-50) are actually selling for on eBay, save maybe a couple of the hottest cards. Given all of this, I still think my general rule of thumb applies here:

    PSA 8 = highest price the typical raw card sells for (factoring out those few bid up by us "gem 10" hunters).

    PSA 9 = 1.5x PSA 8 price, given a relatively stable Population of 9's/10's

    PSA 10 = 3x PSA 8 price, again given a relatively stable Population of 9's/10's

    I specify a relatively stable Pop. because if a card is the 1st Gem 10 or there are no 10's and only a few 9's the price will go considerably higher (aka "The Spacebaby Effect"). This is a definite factor for Arabians, where the Pops are still rather low, considering the demand. That being said, I think it would be fair to use full median Scrye as your base, rather than the 50% discount that eBay is currently giving the cards. Thus, I would price your 9's at 1.5x median Scrye and your 10's at 3x median Scrye, or at least that's my opinion image .

    PSA 10 Library? I only wish I could help you there image

    Price for a full set of graded Arabians? Wow, that could take a while to figure out - unless you want to sell it to me, then $100 tops image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    I forgot to say (OMG ! he is back again):
    what i feel on the value of the card: i think there is PSA 10 and PSA 8-9.
    PSA 10 is perfect (PSA say it is). So even if the card is PSA 10 + or PSA 10 - it won t change the value of it. And collector look for those.
    PSA 8-9 is nice but there is better that s the Big Deal image
    So i am sure PSA 10 will worth more and more while PSA 8-9 will increase lot less.

    If you ask me what i would like in mtg cards if every thing was possible i would say alpha set PSA 10.
    But it doesn t exist and i don t think it will ever exist.
    Second choice then : Beta set PSA 10.
    It exist but unless you offer 100 000 + USD to Steven i don t think he will sell image
    So i guess i will take the unlimited LOL !

    That s what i finaly did 9 month ago. The choice was easy : PSA 9 Beta or PSA 10 unlim.
    I started PSA 9 beta but then i decide to go for PSA 10 so i went on unlimited. PSA 10 unlimited is more rare than beta PSA 9. So it will worth more and beside the rarity there is the fact that it s the best grade so even if there was same number or little more beta PSA 9 i think the PSA 10 unlimited will worth more. When i started no one care of the unlimited ... The only thing that made me paid 61 USD for a PSA 10 dual land unlimited was because Steven puted 60 on it. the next after Steven was 40 USD. Now i don t think it will sell for less than 150 USD on ebay so it was the good time to start this set.

    If for a long time poeple didn t make much difference between unlim and revised, now they make it more and more. The player pay more for unlim. the dual land unlim sell arround 30 and 20 for revised in exelent condition.

    And one last thing : it s better to be the rich in your village than the poor in town. So i think if you can t make it in the beta, just go for the unlim !

    Legend now poeple still not care too much and antiquities even less ... I think it s the good time for those 2 sets for arabian i think it s a little burned already image when i see the low value unco PSA 10 that sell for 180-200 USD image
    6 month ago i over bidded Steven on a City in the bottle PSA 10 that i got for 72-73 USD ... I was thinking i paid too much but now i don t think the same way image

    Anyway what ever you collect. Even if you loose little bit of money when you sell it back 10 years later if you enjoyed it for 10 years then it s cheap. How much worth 10 years of enjoyment ?

    So just enjoy,
    Bastien
    Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.
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    Here is my take on pricing for PSA 8-9-10.

    Currently, I think Jared said it very well.

    But down the long horizon, it will mimic PSA sportscards and CGC comic books. Which from my recent observations, 2x PSA8 > 1x PSA9. This will also mean cards with little value like a $1 card will not sell for $5 in PSA 8. As supply becomes more abundant and available, it will have an impact on prices.

    Many of us here are probably holding a huge cache of cheap Beta commons; waiting for the value to rise high enough to justify slabbing them. Until then, all each need is just 1 to satisfy our own set registry. :-)

    Low grade demand, the lower grades right now (7 and under) are just crap from a collector perspective right now when one can easily get a 8 or better. When more collectors jump in, they will squeeze supply, therefore raising the prices, and the end result is the low grade stuff becomes appealling from an affordability perspective. There will be a bunch of collectors like me who are just happy to own a Lotus (even if it is marginal in quality). Just look at the demand and $$ for PSA 1/2 for Mickey Mantle sportscards.

    -- Joe
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    Wow, who could be asking for a full set of AN. Could it be our celebrity Poker friend. :-)

    How much should it be? I'd hate to guess. And since Steven is the price guru, I'm sure you already know what it should be.

    I see Bastien is another game junkie like me. I really like the REAL RPG experience he went thru. That sounded awesome to try. Imagine late at night, the enemies storming a wall, bodies are falling everywhere. The defenders far away from the action will soon shift position to support the fight. Meanwhile, a small elite team sneak in from another penetration pt, moving from shadow to shadow, takes out the royal guards and slay the king. Victory!

    I have a question. Any recommendation on PC RPG that can run on WinXP. The game should play more like the old Ultima and not so linear like Dungeon Siege. No online games, I dont want to pay a monthly fee. Are there such games still kicking around. It doesn't have to be recent. I would play Ultima 9 but reviews on Amazon is bad and I don't know if it will run on WinXP.

    -- Joe
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    Hey Joe,

    Long term I definitely think you're right - cards worth less than $3-4 raw in PSA 8 won't even be worth the grading fee, and in 9 you'll most likely just break even. There will be enough of this stuff around to satisfy collectors, so I can't see any sort of long term price increase. High demand cards, on the other hand, will be worth grading no matter what (like Mantles).

    You guys still have the time and money for computer games? The last one I got was "Dora's Lost City" - my daughter gives it two thumbs up image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Joe,
    Don t say on the chat PSA 8 common no worth money ! I sell a bunch of them and they end in 9 hours LOL !
    I will say like Rudy in his auction : If you don t buy my card now i will sell it twice this price in the vacation time image
    Or i could my loss is your gain ! buy them while they are cheap !
    Oh well ... ok, my loss is my loss then
    Bastien
    Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.
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    I didn t play ultima but i had a good friend that was spending his day on it ...
    Oh well i need a second life to try them all image
    Bastien
    Collecting MTG cards from Alpha to Antiquities.
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    Bastien.

    Don't worry. Your cards will sell. There's not enough to satisfy people's set at this time. It is down the road that prices on cheap common will drop. But by then, a lot more people wil have graded more cheapos to make that happen.

    -- Joe
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    Yo,

    I dont think psa 8 cards will fall below $5.00. Thats because all of us understand that $5 is the best grading price and is a sunk grading cost. While we wont pay a huge premium above that for a psa 8, if you have a hole and can pick up a card for just the grading costs its a value. When I look at selling prices, especially on psa 8-9 uncommons and psa 8 uncommons, I basically look at the selling price minus grading minus transaction costs.

    example psa 9 beta common sells for $15 = 15 minu 6 (grading and 2 way shipping) minus 2 (paypal and ebay fees) = $7.00 ... if its a $3.00 common I neeted a 133% increase ove median scrye value... now could I have sold that on ebay raw for $7...probably not.

    psa 8 common sells for $8 = 8 - 6 -2 = $0 --- i dind't even net the cards scrye value. However, I did get my grading costs back to get another card graded and keep the process going. pehaps the next one will be a 9 or even better a 10. That's why you just cant submits common 8's, they'll break the bank.

    Anyway, I'm painting a bathroom and it needs another coat...catch yall later.
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Sorry, Steven. The $5 barrier is broken. An unavoidable consequence of economics with insufficient contributions from fellow serious bidders. It wasn't easy but I already owned 1 such, and soon will have 3 more in possession. image

    If prices like this persist, I may end up owning a set by accident.

    -- Joe
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    Hey Guys,

    Yeah, $5 for PSA 8's is not going to happen long term. I have several I got for under $5, and more keep coming all the time. The sportcards guys, who have been at this quite a while, generally agree that with low value modern product:

    PSA 10's - always worth grading, will make money
    PSA 9's - most likely get grading fees back, that's it
    PSA 8's or less - lose money on grading.

    Of course, 8's will do well if the card is high demand (popular card) or if the Pop is low in any/higher grade. Right now there aren't many MtG cards graded, so 8's do occasionally sell well. Long term, as more and more cards get graded, they will be the "throwaway" cards when you get your submissions back.

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Joe,

    My views are colored by the fact that I really only look at A/B/U in general. My comments are about those cards and to some extent arabians. While there are always some sellers who will always sell for less, they tend to set prices at the low end of the price range. Jared is a a very price conscious buyer. Conversely, you like the lower grades becuse the grading premium is lower. Just because you have have purchased cards below $5 doesnt indicate that that is the norm. Sure some sellers will choose to allow product to go that low. Many other sellers will not sell for below a certain price. I have sold and will continue to sell psa 8 commons for $5 or more. There are people willing to pay that price or more for the cards. While the overall prices of psa 8 common are dropping, it is possible to establish price floors. I have not and will not sell a card for less than the grading costs. So far, I have always been able to find a buyer for that price or higher, even if that buyer is not you. Again, these thoughts pertain primarily to A/B/U.

    Additionally, as we extrapolate these pricings to later sets, the analogy to sportscards becomes far more accurate. I agree that I'd loose money on a psa 8 4th edition benalish hero. We have yet to see where psa 8 commons of AQ and Legends fall out. However, that same psa 8 in alpha will still be worth more than grading. Isn't that what we're talkin about; vintage magic cards. To look at pricing trends of non vintage sportscards and compare it to vintage magic cards doesnt correlate. Perhaps one should look at the pricing of some of the vintage and highly sesirable baseball sets from the fifties for example to find more correlation.

    I find these conversations kinda funny as we see two different camps emerge. It seems to me that there are those who want to see prices fall so that the costs of acqusition fall. There are those who want to see prices rise because they have the cards and want to see bigger returns. The balance is somewhere in the middle.

    I'm not trying to be obnoxious here. However, it is up to the sellers to establish price floors not buyers. I know we all benefit from price appreciation. Looking at Jared's postings of the prices paid for different cards, most are worth more than the purchase price. It will still be possible to find deals below $5.00. I for my part will endeavor to keep the price above $5.00. Either way, I'll still ask $9.00 image
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Hey Steven.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not hoping prices will fall. I'd rather Beta common prices go thru the roof as I have a nice stack lying around that might be borderline to get graded. It's just that the market of late has soften up for low grade MTG cards. Therefore breaking the $5 barrier and allowing people like me to capitalize on the opportunity. Whether this will persist is anyone's guess.

    I agree not all sellers will sell below $5. I wouldn't either unless I am in need of $$. But there will be a few sellers along the way who just rather liquidate now and take the loss. They might even consider it an opportunity to sell the cheap goods and buy quality goods at also reduced prices. So when the upswing continue, the better stuff will yield a higher return. A sound business strategy in my book.

    I still believe about my comment regarding graded card prices falling in line with guide prices. But when that occurs, years from now, it's good odds that the same cheap MTG card would have appreciated in value due to pent up demand with a lot more collectors jumping in. In fact, the rise in price will most likely make both our pts stick, $5 entry pt and prices match guide value. Of course, I am talking about the day prices actually reflect graded cards, not raw cards like today.

    Until then, I'll just hang onto those cheapies. Patiently waiting for the $5 horizon to arrive. Then watch me flood the market ....

    -- Joe
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    Hey Steven,

    You could be right - I'll be the first to admit it is pure speculation at this point where the market will be in 6 months, let alone 6 years. If PSA 8's become the floor at $6-8 each I would actually be VERY happy, for many of the reasons Joe stated. I personally just don't see that being the case long term - my opinion. Perhaps, if this takes off in a very big way, or the Pops of graded cards just don't materialize, it could come to pass. I think right now it just a guessing game for all of us.

    Interesting side note - did you know that in the coin market, there really isn't ANY premium paid for graded coins? Sounds crazy, but it's true. Coins have been graded for so long now that it is the NORM for a coin to be graded and as such, no premium. RAW coins sell at a discount, if at all - unless it is at a show, shop or from a very reputable dealer. Joe alluded to this in his post, and I too can see this day for MtG, way down the road. Perhaps at some point Scrye will list cards by their PSA grade? You never know image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Hi Jared. Thanks for the info on the graded COINs. It helps reinforce my believe but a LONG LONG way to go still.

    As for thinking A/B commons reaching $5-6 each. Its not far fetch. Alpha is almost half way there. Some of the basic Beta commons have gone up in prices since early last yr. Plus we have not factor in the graded effect on price list yet. Didn't you know there is a reason I ask for the land counts on A/B/U. You yourself provided the production count for the rares/unc/com. Just look at those numbers, as long as the game continue, even at a snail pace of growth, each year the older crowd will lose some playa and the newer guys jump in. Some of these dropouts and in-play older guys will end up being collectors like us when they have a decent job with good $$.

    With the strong interest in Legacy game play, expect more people to jump in and squeeze the current supply. I expect the Legacy crowd will be far bigger than the Vintage crowd. Case in pt, Legend Reset.

    If we believe the market size of this collectible field is in its infancy, then surely we believe the market size will increase (which also leads to more stores catering to graded goods). So with both stores and collectors holding graded MTG cards, think of what that will do to the stock available.

    And the real kicker is that this is a world market since the game has world appeal. Few coins or sportscards have this huge potential audiences. How many people in Europe or Asia you know wants to buy a Steve Young football card? And here we have our in-house inter-continental friend tmmoose from UK.

    Len and Steve are probably in the best position as they both buy/sell frequently. Assuming we are businesses and the prices are on a upward trend, the ideal situation is to sell as much as one can acquire replacements ($ wise), we buy them cheap (store buy price) and sell them high (store sell price). As long as stores can replace sold stock, it is in their interest to sell. In many cases, the frequent transaction profits far outweigh holding the good for 1 big gain. And transactions are what help get customer to come back again and again. (This is a very theoritical situation as the available supply diminishes due to collectors taking cards out of circulation.)

    -- Joe
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    tmmoosetmmoose Posts: 253 ✭✭
    Hello all,

    tromagic has been encouraging me to pop in and say hello - so I thought I would. (Especially as my ears were burning!)

    Brief introduction to me: Starting playing MtG around the time of antiquities/revised (well about the time AQ was disappearing from the shops anyway) and was fairly keen collector / player then. I used to play with friends at school a lot, and at a local club. I seem to remember being someone obsessed with getting OOP cards even then and traded about 20 legends for a Black Lotus and a set of Mox. The person I traded off was being advised by his 'expert' friend who seemed to think he was getting a good deal. I just figured Legends weren't really playable because their casting costs were so silly. I guess I got the better deal :-)

    I also seem to remember having fun throwing my Chaos Orb up in the air and hoping it wouldn't land on any of my cards. Given the opportunity I'd still stick one in a deck - sadly no one to play with these days!

    Anyway, when The Dark came out I decided that all the jokes we used to make about MtG literally sucking the money out of your pockets was true and that it would be impossible to afford to keep playing if WOTC kept bringing out new cards (what was wrong with just leaving it as it was!?) and sold all my cards off to a shop for about $1,300 and moved on to other things. I toyed with the idea of getting back into magic at various points since then, but never did (for fear of the money sucking!) but earlier this year decided it would be great to own a nice set of P9 cards as a remember of those giddy days so set about collecting those and the rest is history. Now currently trying to beat off the competition and complete a PSA 10 Unlimited set and toying with the idea of collecting some of the earlier sets. Would also quite like a decent set of AN/L/AQ but don't care much for more recent sets. I guess I would if I actually took the time to learn what the cards did.

    I think the chosen title for this thread is quite interesting - Do people view their cards as an investment or as something they've spend money on which is now 'gone' like a table or a TV i.e. a purchase?

    I tend to think of my cards more as the latter - something which I've spent money on which is effectively gone, but I have something I value as highly (if not more highly). I am not a fan of buying cards and then locking them away never to be seen again. Although my cards are secured in case of burglary, I do like to take them out and look at them regularly so that I can appreciate them. I often look at cards and spot new and intersting things in the artwork that I've never spotted before. That's part of the fun of having the cards.

    On a separate note, I suspect the UK and European market will be very slow to take off until PSA or some other grading company gets themselves a place where you can send cards in the UK/Europe to get them graded. I am very reluctant to send high value cards 5,000 miles (or further) and back again to get them graded. In addition, there are other 'frictional' costs associated with buying in the UK such as Import Duty an Sales Tax which you have to pay when you import purchases from the US which can add up to 30% on to the cost. I suspect the situation is similar for people in mainland Europe buying from the US.

    I suspect if I sent cards worth $2k to PSA to grade, the UK would try to charge me 30% on that when the cards came back in, just to get my own cards back! I haven't tried this yet for fear or bankruptcy. :-)

    Anyway, that's my thoughts on the market on this side of the pond. If anyone has thoughts on how to create a more liquid market I'd be please to hear them!

    - Michael
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    Does anyone get my icon. Nobody has commented about it.
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Hey Steven,

    Karpman... Cartman??? image

    "YOU WILL RESPECT MY AUTHORITY!!!!" in PSA graded Magic cards image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Hey Michael,

    Thanks for joining in - always great to get a new voice in the choir, especially one from "across the pond" image .

    Your question on this whole business being for pleasure or profit is definitely a good one. I guess I would like to think I am only doing it for fun with money I can burn, but I think somewhere along the way I crossed the line image . I try to think of it more now as a very serious "grown-up" hobby. I have spent WAY more than I should have - one of the reasons why I've slowed down in my acquisitions as of late. In the long run, there are more important things in life than pieces of chipboard encased in plastic. That being said, I have always dreamed of having a killer set of these cards ever since I first saw them way back in 1993. I think there is tremendous upside to these cards, and I want to get them while I'm still able. I figure at this point 3 things can happen:

    Cards go up over time - grumble about having to pay more, but be thankful for what I already have.

    Cards stay level - be happy I paid off some bills and saved a little; start buying again.

    Cards drop in value - grumble about money I "wasted", gleefully pick up missing cards at a "bargain"

    So really no matter what, I can't lose, right? image

    Take it easy,
    Jared
    "You consider me the young apprentice,
    Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
    Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
    Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting

    Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
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    Hey, did Jared guess right about Steven's icon? I just thought Steve is a South Park fan, that's all. But Jared's stab is humorous. Chuckle.

    Michael, I know how you feel about getting taxed. I'm not in USA and am in constant fear of paying extra. So far, I've been pretty lucky as packages are coming in without taxes (except 1). It turns out out what is declared matters quite a bit. All the pkgs declared as "trading cards", "game cards", and "magic cards" seem to get pass custom without taxing. The 1 that got taxed is declared as "magic the gathering collectible cards". My best guess is the word COLLECTIBLE is the trigger here. As it conveys arts and antiques. Of course, we do have the wonderful NAFTA which may have reduced the tax already. So not sure how much of this will apply to UK.

    I wonder how it might change if the content is declared as "evaluation" and still allowing for full value declared (for insurance). CGC (the comic side equivalent of PSA), has some advice on sending stuff to them for grading from foreign country. You might gleem some strategy from that to help reduce your tax burden legally.

    -- Joe
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    Eric Cartman is my cousin. We are the Karpman clan. Jared is correct. I thought it was amusing.
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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    Fellas,

    I've just listed some alpha, arabians, and beta auctions on ebay. Half hit ebay on Friday and the other half list Sunday. There's some neat stuff, including some spicy psa 10 rares... LOOK a PSA 10 BETA SERRA, MASK, and MOTI! Please look, shop, and let me know if you want to reserve anything. I'll be listing a few more cards over the next two weeks. Lots of nice OLD cards. Take a look:

    spacebaby's auctions

    thanks!
    Steven Karpman
    "spacebaby" on ebay
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