The micrograde effect

SYRACUSIAN

Now I know, some members are getting really tired of this, but this was a rare opportunity to pass. The same coin, once rare in unc, appeared 4 times (or more) on ebay, within the space of 8 (eight) days . Here are the results (with ending times):

The coin was a 1957 50 lepta from Greece. If someone has a new Krause and can provide me with its BU price, I will be grateful.

NGC MS63 = $247.50 September 24

NGC MS64 = $380.00 September 19

NGC MS65 = $406.00 September 26

NGC MS66 = $600.00 September 27

Now if you ask me, I have this in MS65 , a very old and inexpensive purchase, and I can tell you, that being a tiny copper nickel coin, there is very little difference between the first(perhaps undergraded?) and last(perhaps overgraded?) example. They're all BU and nice, but obviously this is no longer enough for the buyers who get more and more into the TPG's game. The Greek market is steadily and quickly, absorbing all the bad habits of the US market,but none of the good.

Burks

The price for BU is $200
UNC $100
XF $50

Hope that helps.

spoon

Just for historical curiosity, my 1993 Krause gives UNC at $10! (and all others in the series at $1.5)

SYRACUSIAN

Thank you. The new Krause 1954-73 prices are actually not that far from reality as can be seen from the price of the MS63 example.

I rest my case.

wybrit

I'm in your corner on this. MS63, MS66, who cares? (Except when I'm selling, of course!! )

I recently sold an MS64 PCGS Vicky YH shilling in favor of keeping an MS63 NGC of the same date (it is Charon58's birth year of 1858). Given the discussions from this forum, one probably would argue there was more than one point between them. The 63 is still my signature coin on my website - I love it!!

newsman

What's amazing is how those 1954-73 Greek coins keep bringing strong prices even as the prices bring more slabbed examples to the market. Is the demand really that high?

bosox

Dimitri,

I sat thru much of the Heritage Long Beach auction, but I missed the sale of the 1828 Phoenix (lot #13363) and the 1921-H 50 lepta (lot #13399). I'd be interested in your opinion of these two lots. They seem like top end Greek lots to the layman.

Rob

SYRACUSIAN

<< <i>What's amazing is how those 1954-73 Greek coins keep bringing strong prices even as the prices bring more slabbed examples to the market. Is the demand really that high? >>






Strong prices yes, but not nearly as strong as six months ago.I was lucky to sell all my dupes at prices that were 40-80% higher than the current ones, as they were among the first slabbed examples of these dates. The above example is the scarcest of all these coins, along with the 1959 2 drachmai, so that's why I thought it was weird to see all these slabs for sale almost simultaneously.There's certainly demand for the 1954-59 coins, they were always difficult to locate in unc, but the rest will soon be dead I think, the novelty of owning a coin worth $1, in an MS66-67 slab is already over.

SYRACUSIAN

<< <i>Dimitri,

I sat thru much of the Heritage Long Beach auction, but I missed the sale of the 1828 Phoenix (lot #13363) and the 1921-H 50 lepta (lot #13399). I'd be interested in your opinion of these two lots. They seem like top end Greek lots to the layman.

Rob >>





Rob, these two are indeed truly rare coins.The phoenix , is an extremely popular one year type coin with a mintage of 12000, it's the first silver modern Greek coin and will sell above $1000 in almost any condition. Mint state examples are practically non existant,at least for sale. Only once,I saw an overgraded NGC MS66 on ebay and the seller was asking $10K. It was engraved by a local artist and minted with very old equipment bought at a bargain price, as soon as the revolution against the Ottoman empire was over, as the wise Governor thought that minting new Greek coins that would replace the circulating Ottoman ones, was of the utmost importance for the newly reborn and small Greek state. These coins were all replaced in 1833 with the arrival of a Bavarian monarch and new state of the art equipment.

The 1921 holed 50 lepta is a different story. It's a cupro-nickel coin, that was minted in England in the Heaton (H mm) and King's Norton (KN mm) mints with a total figure of 2524227 coins, the first coin after King Constantine's restoration in 1920. These were very turbulent times in Greece that had been through various wars with its Balkan neighbours to expand its territory to the North, as well as WW1 and was preparing the invasion of Constantinople. As soon as the coins reached Greece, it was discovered that the metal value was higher than the face value and they were immediately melted down with only a handful escaping the melting pot,hence the very high prices. Of the two, the KN is the more rare.

bosox

Thanks, Dimitri. And thank you for your gift to Emily. She loves the sets. I think we have a kid that could be a lifetime collector, because ofthe coins first, and because she sees nice people collecting them second. Thanks again.

bosox

PS - Part of my interest in Greece is that I lived for a year in Turkey in 1977-78 (I know that most Greeks think that is a bad thing). I was in the military and lived for twelve months near Marmari Ereglisi (near Tekirdag) Turkey. When my time was up, my wife flew over and we took the bus to Alexanderopolis and on to Thessolonoki (sp) and on Athens/Pareus. We took rail to the Pelopaneseus and the boat to Corfu and Italy. A great trip. Sorry about my spelling of Greek places.

P.S. Emily decided to like Greek coins for her own reasons, unrelated to any of the above.

SYRACUSIAN

Well, now with Emily's interest, you all have a good reason to repeat that trip.

As for me, having spent many years of my life abroad, I don't think that there are bad countries, I think good people can be encountered everywhere and the differences between various cultures and people are infinetely smaller than their common points.We all share the same anxieties and celebrate similar things that make us happy.Coin collecting is one example. But the majority thinks otherwise.


edited, let me rephrase that: the majority is encouraged to think otherwise.

1jester

<< <i>Well, now with Emily's interest, you all have a good reason to repeat that trip.

As for me, having spent many years of my life abroad, I don't think that there are bad countries, I think good people can be encountered everywhere and the differences between various cultures and people are infinetely smaller than their common points.We all share the same anxieties and celebrate similar things that make us happy.Coin collecting is one example. But the majority thinks otherwise.


edited, let me rephrase that: the majority is encouraged to think otherwise. >>




Another very brilliant post by Dimitri!

cladking

I wonder if, unlike most darkside coins, a very high percentage of the c/n Greek unc coins
tend to trade in slabs. As evidenced by the '93 Krause value these were deemed common
until only recently. Insiders knew they weren't available but there have been and are very
few collectors of almost all post-1950 coinage. It may well follow that these are much more
likely to be slabbed when trading. Modern collectors tend to be younger if not less experi-
enced.

Most of these coins come very nice when you can find them, the problem is finding them.

ajaan

<< <i>it is Charon58's birth year of 1858 >>


Hey, wait a minute there wybrit.

Interesting thread here Dimitri. As you noted micrograding has found its way to Greek coins. I also think British coins can be included. There also seems to be the PCGS/NGC effect also starting to be noticed. Just from my unscientific sampling, it seems PCGS graded coins sell for slightly higher than NGC coins. Is this an effect of more US collectors buying World coins now that US coins are becomming so expensive? I really don't know. No matter what, I think slabbed coins have gotten a foothold in the World coin market and I think it will only grow over time.


On a side note: I nominate this thread, and SYRACUSIAN for a Darkside Post of the Day.

MacCrimmon

<< <i>Just from my unscientific sampling, it seems PCGS graded coins sell for slightly higher than NGC coins. Is this an effect of more US collectors buying World coins now that US coins are becomming so expensive? I really don't know. >>



You are correct Greentoe, PCGS coins have been and still are bringing higher World prices than NGC coins for the same date/grade. Let's just say that presently, in my experience, NGC coins tend to be overgraded much more [often] than PCGS, at least in my experience.

That said, I bought almost 20 NGC coins out of the Cheshire sale, and a little birdie told me that I should send them to 'cross' at PCGS.....maybe so; [again, buy the coin].

If I may posit this observation from auction viewing in the past year; as a coin's preservation tends to the MS66+ - MS68 range, the agreement between PCGS, NGC, and myself tend to converge.

Sometime in the next few months I'll try to assemble the Cheshire price data relative to the NGC grades (actual grades per my opinion), and post for everyone's rumination.

In the meantime, buy straw hats in January.

Edited: the straw hat thing only applies to the Northern Hemisphere. Argentinians and the like should buy straw hats in July

oldshep

Reading this post has, once again, made me appreciate the people on this forum. A thoughtful post with excellent replies. No rants or inappropriate comments.
Good job Dimitri et al; On a side note: I nominate this thread, and SYRACUSIAN for a Darkside Post of the Day
I agree with Don!!!
Shep

SYRACUSIAN

<< <i>

<< <i>Just from my unscientific sampling, it seems PCGS graded coins sell for slightly higher than NGC coins. Is this an effect of more US collectors buying World coins now that US coins are becomming so expensive? I really don't know. >>



You are correct Greentoe, PCGS coins have been and still are bringing higher World prices than NGC coins for the same date/grade. Let's just say that presently, in my experience, NGC coins tend to be overgraded much more [often] than PCGS, at least in my experience.

>>






I think this one desrves its own thread. The truth is that NGC coins have the lion's share of the market still, or at least that's what I see on ebay. PCGS is more specialized in countries such as Canada or Switzerland, but overall a common NGC slab gets more exposure.The big auctions on the other hand, I don't know. I certainly know someone who would have been very defensive of NGC if he was here.

SYRACUSIAN

Modern collectors tend to be younger if not less experi-
enced.




Another very astute observation. Part of the reasons that all these "modern" coins now trend in high grade slabs, is that they are affordable to the novice collector who will prefer them over AU examples of the 19th century. The above example was among the scarcest and most expensive, but there is a multitude of even more recent cu-ni coins that sell for $30-$100 if in slabs and high grades. This is really a new mentality, I never cared for coins after 1966, I was buying them in sets for $10, just trying to choose the best I could, and I still have them this way. The first serious purchases were pre-1910 coins for me and many others and a VF-XF 1833 coin had a much greater appeal than an unthinkable post WW2 slabbed coin back then.

Now, isn't this a scary similarity with the US market?

MacCrimmon

<< <i>I certainly know someone who would have been very defensive of NGC if he was here. >>




My comments are primarily aimed at coinage of Gr. Brit. (primarily the issues of 1816 to 1927), and Switzerland. Frankly, I consider some of NGCs [recent] grading of these British issues as abysmal. They tend to pass far too many issues which are too heavily hairlined, or bagmarked as gem unc. or near gems.

Wybrit's Market comments to NGCs hammer prices, vs. PCGS (the 2005 FUN show) are quite insightful and instructive for those who have not had the opportunity to compare the respective grade ranges [& prices realized] of the two TPGs. NGC doesn't get the short end of the hammer prices for no reason. Again, buy the coin; there are plums everywhere, as opposed to [just] cherries.

As to the potpourri of other Darkside outside these I mention from my experience, I can't say how either stack up.

1jester

Somehow I get the feeling Dimitri is referring to gmarguli.

SYRACUSIAN

Well, let's not get personal here.



Anyway I think I was too quick to judge that the post 1959 slabbed coin market in Greece will colapse in my initial posts. At the contrary, I see more and more young and novice collectors willing to pay an amount for a slabbed MS modern coin, while they could be buying a slabbed XF-AU 19th century, early 20th for the same amount, but they seem to prefer the former. Is this a mistake?It's a new mentality no doubt. Some of our own forum members sell a lot of these coins and every time I say, this is it, this market is running out of buyers but I am wrong every time. Why don't they simply buy them as sets as they're readily available and start the search for older coins, is beyond my understanding despite the fact that I used to think of it as a simple amusing and temporary phenomenon.

newsman

<< <i>Why don't they simply buy them as sets as they're readily available and start the search for older coins, is beyond my understanding despite the fact that I used to think of it as a simple amusing and temporary phenomenon. >>



I think some of those sets aren't so readily available, and neither are the coins.

It seems also that a lot of those new collectors brought into the hobby by recent coinage changes, such as the introduction of the euro, tend to start with what's new and work their way backwards in time. I think the market for the more modern slabbed coins also is bolstered by lightsiders migrating over, looking for undervalued bargains and condition rarities.

cladking

<< <i>

<< <i>Why don't they simply buy them as sets as they're readily available and start the search for older coins, is beyond my understanding despite the fact that I used to think of it as a simple amusing and temporary phenomenon. >>



I think some of those sets aren't so readily available, and neither are the coins.

It seems also that a lot of those new collectors brought into the hobby by recent coinage changes, such as the introduction of the euro, tend to start with what's new and work their way backwards in time. I think the market for the more modern slabbed coins also is bolstered by lightsiders migrating over, looking for undervalued bargains and condition rarities. >>



So far as I know there are no mint or proof sets for most of these coins. This is typical for
most of the modern rarities; if they appear in mint sets, they are not rare. There were few
collectors in those days who would have any interest in modern debased coinage. Many of
these collectors would just take a coin out of circulation for their sets. It is possible to find
AU's of the yougher dates but these, too, are very scarce. After this the coins lie in a bell
curve with a tight spread at about VG. I've seen these in poundage up to a poor XF. It is to
be assumed that these sets also have had extremely high attrition. Up until a few years ago
these coins were considered common because there was such scant demand so when they
appeared in estates and the like, they just might end up in poundage. Even today many of
modern rarities have very low catalog prices.

Almost every unc Greek coin I've found from this era is a nice choice coin. They tend to be
blazing, no question, uncs which are fairly clean and well struck. It may not be necessary to
pay significant premiums for the highest grades if my coins are representative since when all
is said and done there would need to be far higher demand for the higher grades to maintain
much premium.

While it's still entirely possible that a roll or horde of some of these coins may appear, it has
been nearly half a century without seeing a trace of anything. One would think that if these
were around that they'd occasionally turn up in estate sales and the like but they never do.
The closest thing you can find to it is the few and far between fractional aluminum leptas from
the early 1950's.

If there is ever even close to as much demand for the modern coins as there is for the older
ones there will be tremendous changes in the pricing structure for the moderns and most col-
lectors will have to be satisfied with F's and VF's.