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Lets take a hard look at the coin market
Bear
Posts: 18,954 ✭✭
Apparently, the two tier market is diverging at an increasing rate.
Average and lackluster coins are soft to down and superb quality
coins are holding up, but are decreasing in availability. This duel
market will tend to cause a shortage of cash for many dealers.
General economic problems ,with fuel costs, devastation af large areas
of the South and increasing cost of loans,will have a significant effect on
peoples spending for things like coins. Financial stress may well cause a
marked increase in the sale of widgets causing a downward pressure on
those coins as well as the market. Reality is slowly catching up with the "What me worry crowd".
Those with cash will be kings and queens in 2006 and beyond. Pay down short term debt, increase
liquid assets and get ready for the inevetable price to be paid for mans stupidity, rapacious appetites
and the cyclic increase of savagely destructive weather conditions.
While I am still buying coins, I am now doing it very carefully and very slowley.
Average and lackluster coins are soft to down and superb quality
coins are holding up, but are decreasing in availability. This duel
market will tend to cause a shortage of cash for many dealers.
General economic problems ,with fuel costs, devastation af large areas
of the South and increasing cost of loans,will have a significant effect on
peoples spending for things like coins. Financial stress may well cause a
marked increase in the sale of widgets causing a downward pressure on
those coins as well as the market. Reality is slowly catching up with the "What me worry crowd".
Those with cash will be kings and queens in 2006 and beyond. Pay down short term debt, increase
liquid assets and get ready for the inevetable price to be paid for mans stupidity, rapacious appetites
and the cyclic increase of savagely destructive weather conditions.
While I am still buying coins, I am now doing it very carefully and very slowley.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
I have to agree with you. But the coin market has had a great run over the past couple years, even with the economy heading south. Like any other market (housing, stock,etc..) they must release a little pressure now and then. I can say (IMO) that numismatics is still one of the best bang for the buck (no pun intended). Besides the stock market numismatics have been the best market to place your investments. Like the stock market, where you place your money can and will determine your profit and loss. You and I know the bank is no place to put your money. Not everyone can afford a home. As for the ones with cash will be the kings and queens, I would say those with the most equity will be in control. Those who have cash in the bank are losing money, but those who invest wisely will prosper. This is my opinion and we all know what those are worth. I hope this made since.
Freak
My translation..... collectors (including myself) have finally wised up and are LEARNING. We are learning about coins,
we are learning what really goes on in the coin game. And we are remembering how we were treated in this "Hot"
market. Translation...... The Party Is Over!!!
is getting smarter and more quality conscious. Many of the excesses of the market
place will decrease as collectors decline to play the games of overgraded coins, AT coins
overpriced coins and widgets that will not increase in value for the next 100 years. As the wealthy
get sated in their lust for top of the line coins at atmospheric prices and dealers find that after they
sell each other expensive coins, they are not able to sell to collectors, a harsh reality will occure. To be
sure, this reality will be temporary, but if one is forced to sell a collection under duress during the reality
period will find that the prices they are offered for marginal coins will be far below the published buy prices. Those who are
prudent, and have learned how to play the great game, will endure and profit. The rest will be sorely dissappointed.
Camelot
People talk about what the housing bubble burst will look like - or what the next coin market downturn may look like. To me it seems like the prices of tangible goods that have seen jumps in recent years are apt level off, but only go down as compared to the value of the dollar.
>>>My Collection
I am ultra choosey right now with my coins, and I will not pay stupid money for anything unless it is absolutely unimprovable and for my core collection. I too am looking forward to the market downturn...I am all for it, I will continue to spend what little money I can on coins, look for bargains and enjoy the coins that I have that I know will always be liquid.
The rich will always have disposable income and they will always want nice coins...no matter what the market is. That is what kind of coins we should all hope to have.
What scares me about this country and economy is that the middle class is shrinking. I personally am very happy that I have no CC debt or other "bad debt". We are selling our house here in Hawaii before this housing market comes crashing down...wait til all the houses go into foreclosure. It wouldnt take much to shock this economy right now...one more major disaster whether it be a terrorist attack, an earthquake in LA or SF...
Let this coin market at least come crashing down...I dont need to sell and I am tired of this "investor" market...
siliconvalleycoins.com
"The partys over" ??
I don't think so, but if some of you want to go home that's fine. I will not leave early.
As far as you gloom and doomers go.....it's way too early to fret.
There is plenty of money to be made all over the map.
"The economy heading south"..... Another thought that will get you nothing.
"Those with cash will be kings and queens in 2006".......only if they already are!
I will be fully invested.... in rare coins and real estate.
As a Real Estate Broker and investor I can tell you that in my part of the country
(South Florida) you have to be a fool not to be using other people's money to own
real estate and harvest the 40%+ appreciation per year.
It's like farming except we harvest money not food. And plenty of it!
For the last 10 years many people here have been saying the RE market was over priced
and ready to burst it's bubble......they were wrong then and they are wrong now.
Sitting on the side lines only protects what you have and does little to improve one's situation.
The party might be over for those that choose to go home but some of us are
still partying our a_ _es off!!!
I am not saying it is going to totally crash, but just wait until interest rates are at 8%...do the math and figure out how much more payments are on a 500K house at 5% and then compare them to 8%...
siliconvalleycoins.com
Have a friend who bought a condo 2 years ago in Hawaii.
Paid $1 million and now is worth a little over $3 million.
The market could turn but don't see how he could ever loose money on this.
"We paid 400K for a 1000 square foot townhome in Kaneohe in February...we just accepted an offer for 485K in September.
You probably didn't make a whole lot after factoring in the costs associated with
buying and selling.
You made my point here about being in the market.
Had you held that property for a longer period you surely could have minumized
your costs to gain ratio and realized a much higher percentage of profit.
"Real estate CANNOT continue to go up at that pace".
Really? When will it stop? Will it stop now that you sold?
No one knows for sure but sitting on the sidelines won't make you money.
My friends 2 million gain in Hawaii gives him plenty of room if the market turns.
If he holds the property for another year or 2 and it continues to appreciate
(at whatever rate) he can't loose.
The longer he holds the more secure his investment is.
coinlieutenant
As far as the interest rates go I think you might be surprised
at the percentage of people that buy with cash and could care
less about the interest rate.
Especially when we are talking about 2nd homes or vacation
homes in desirable areas like Hawaii or South Florida.
I too am from the Midwest and was shocked when I moved to
South Florida.
The number of homes here in the 2 to 10 million dollar range
is staggering! And most of these homes are nothing more than
a get-away place for the owners.
The vast majority of these homes were bought with cash. The ones
that are mortgaged is because that is what the owner wanted, not needed.
I agree that interest rates do effect the overall Real Estate market.
But, when interest rates were sky high, the wonderful Jimmy Carter years,
people were still buying and selling real estate and making money!
Oilydog.
Paper profits???
I don't think so.
If not harvested then of course they are paper profits.
But remember a harvest is to be picked not left to die on the vine.
What we harvest is EQUITY. It is taken periodically and used to purchase
other real estate or for other purposes like SPENDING IT.
Those thoughts had a lot of believers.... and many rode their ponys to the ground. A lot of pain for a lot of people. A good friend of mine is STILL holding on to his Level3 stock that he bought at the high price of $110?, and continued to buy as it slowly ramped down to around $2 or so where it has remained for years.
Sure.... what you say is true. There is MUCH money to be made in these situations. In any boom market (bubble) that is true. In fact, if one does not participate in some way, they can lose wealth. But there comes a point, where it becomes out of contol and the bubble bursts, aka Ponzi style. When that point will be is the tough question. Real estate may continue for many years to flourish.....
Those who have the smarts can certainly make loads of profits during these times. You appear to be one of those. I myself.... I feel for the ones who finally end up holding the bag when the adjustment times come..... the ones that watch their savings evaporate, lose their homes, etc., because they believed the rosey fairy tale of how they can never lose money....
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
The market up, down or sideways does not really affect the coin collector. Outside influences may adjust the amount of disposable funds (coin collectors do not use investment, retirement or borrowed funds) to make coin purchases and will buy what is available in their price range at the time. Too many here IMO are much too focused on treating the purchase of coins as an investment. That does not mean that I don't think you can do that, it just means that IMO there are better vehicles for investment purposes.
Paraphrasing what baseball previously wrote, the value of coins (other than intrinsic value) is at best artificial. Because somebody has the ability to pay millions of dollars for a coin, is that what its "worth"?
Yesterday I bought a 1978 Lincoln Cent struck about 80% off-center for $6.00. I have no idea what it is "worth". I might have been able to buy these all day long for $1.00 for all I know (or maybe I got a "steal"). But it didn't matter to me. It happens to be the birth year of my eldest daughter, it looked cool and I can afford $6.00 easily.
If the "market" goes down, I either get to buy more or get to buy coins that were previously outside my budget. If the "market" goes up, I either buy less or buy coins that were previously less than my budget allowed me to buy. It is as simple as that.
Joe.
<< <i>.... most who post here are not part of the majority that I will refer to as "coin collectors".
Joe. >>
Discuss more please.
I copied this from a post I made in another thread.
The items of decoration that you bought to hang on your walls, worry about the resale value of that stuff? There are many things that one buys that is not vital for one's existence that are purchased without a thought of its potential future value.
If you collected small pewter coffee creamers (like my wife) the thought of future value never enters the picture. They are fun to find and display and to own and that's that. I find it very interesting that when it comes to coins there is always this obsession with "What's it worth?". A question that rarely comes up for my wife's creamer collection .
Joe.
tincup
Good points......
the biggest ponzi skeem of all is the one that is perpetuated by our elected
leaders in Washington.....they just keep spending money they do not have
to assure their re-elections and make themselves feel good about helping people.
They might be temporarily being helping some but at some point "katie bar the door"
There is plenty of blame to go around and both parties bear responsibilty.
My father has been saying for many years he wishes he could live long enough
to see how it will all shake out. It will not be a pretty sight and most people
will not know how to cope.
But when? It has been going on so long it seems there no stopping this tax
and spend society. The people involved in the boston tea party could not
even imagine the way we are taxed today.
If the government wants to help people they should just get out of the way
and stop helping us!!
(South Florida) you have to be a fool not to be using other people's money to own
real estate and harvest the 40%+ appreciation per year.
It's like farming except we harvest money not food. And plenty of it!
For the last 10 years many people here have been saying the RE market was over priced
and ready to burst it's bubble......they were wrong then and they are wrong now.
Sitting on the side lines only protects what you have and does little to improve one's situation.
The party might be over for those that choose to go home but some of us are
still partying our a_ _es off!!!
Substitute the word "Cisco" for "real estate", and we are in 1999 all over again. 40% year-over-year gains are unsustainable--in stocks, coins, real estate, Beanie babies--pick your poison. When the real estate bubbles bursts, and it will like all bubbles do, it will be very ugly. At least with buying stocks on margin, which I would never consider, you had to have 50% of the equity value in your stock account. Investing in real estate with 0% down puts you at tremendous risk for even a small downturn. Look out below!
Paid $1 million and now is worth a little over $3 million.
The market could turn but don't see how he could ever loose money on this.
this kind of reasoning is the same stupid logic that many use with regard to price comparisons of NGC/PCGS coins. in the end, he'll loose money when he sells and tries to buy. things tend to even out.
the best thing to be doing now is as the first page wise-guys have been suggesting. dump the marginal-low end stuff, be ready to put that money in better top end coins or sit out till prices come down. quarterguy, while you may be a marginal RE success, taking that strategy to coins won't lend the same result.
We've been talking about bubbles.... bear's original post is certainly in that realm also. We can all cite the examples in the past that have gone bust..... tulips, beanie babies, gold/silver in 1980, coins (numerous times!!), cabbage patch kids, stock market.... and so forth.
Can anyone name a 'bubble' or investment that has NEVER gone bust at some time?? I know real estate has had a good run lately.... but are there similar runs in the past, and then a bust time happened? Interested in knowing any/all examples!!
quarterguy..... you are right on with the government's role in all of this spending. Both partys are guilty and we will all pay the price somehow. So we need to protect ourselves as best as we can.... whether we choose real estate, coins, silver, stocks, guns.... or just plain cash. Which will turn out to be the best?? Man, if I only knew....!
as for these others-----tulips, beanie babies, cabbage patch kids-----they were promoted, hooked all the foolish suckers and then dumped. not even a close comparison.
I've taken a hard look at the coin market and realize there is rampant speculation in many areas. One of them has NOT been type coins. They have participated in every boom of the past 35 years, but not this one?? Odd, huh? The IBM of the coin market has sat on the bench. The other part of this is that you can't find a decent "earthly priced" type coin at any show unless you "bring it with you" to sell. I reconfirmed that fact once again at the August Baltimore show. Even the major auctions aren't putting out decent type except maybe once or twice a year at the FUN or ANA sales. What gives?
One can submit that speculation in all coins (type included) has occurred just due to the variability and abuses in TPG coin grading.
Can't argue with that one. Consider it as just one of the obstacles to steer around. While crappy MS65 graded bust halves bring $4200 (PQ MS64's bring $3500) and real 65's can fetch $6000-7500, and crappy MS66's bring $7500-8500, one can see through this game. Unfortunately the number of real 64's and 65's continue to shrink (as coins are upgraded) while the quantity of crappy coins rises. Without new investor demand, the supply of crappy coins keeps their prices down. Price guides do not reflect the value of the real coins. In 19th century silver type the ratio of crappy coins to real ones that are available in the market is any where from 4 to 1 to as high as 9 to 1. The majority of them have been taken off the market. The last time they were seen was in 2002-2003. When will they be back........hmmmmm?
The FED and company will continue to help support the inflationary economy. It may well be that houses, stocks, and the US dollar will continue to see movement upward at times over the next 12 months. The actions of the FED and other nations will in all likelihood support continued price increases in "rare coin" demand.
Sounding the demise of the coin market at this time may be premature. Take appropriate safeguards at this point however.
Like Bear and CoinLieutenant have stated, be very selective. If in doubt, pass. There is always another coin and a better deal down the road.
I won't sit on the sidelines for any length of time with cash earning a negative return for the sake of "safety." Better to sit on something liquid that can earn a decent return while waiting such as gold bullion, silver, and $20 classic gold pieces. When the US dollar finally turns the corner for good, then it will be time to retire gold, silver, and other commodities as a hedge.
roadrunner
I always think it is interesting to see how different minds defend the turf they are standing on.
Sometimes it is hard to get away from your own deal to look at the big picture.
Here are some examples:
How long will stock market investors hold on to the idea that the stock market is, and has been, a great investment. This market adjusted even for government “adjusted CPI “
has been in the toilet for 6 years. The S&P has not moved all year, even bank C.D.’s would have been better this year.
How long will the Real-Estate people keep pushing the idea that all these “HOT” markets in Florida and the Gulf Coast can never go down, has anyone been watching the new weather patterns? No Boomers in their right minds are moving to the coast, half of the folks in New Orleans say they are never going back!
There is a reason that there are all these slick finance plans out there for anyone to qualify for a home, that reason is that millions cannot make the payments on standard mortgages.
As for the coin market I agree that the majority of this boom is nearly done. The high end of the market may continue forever there is SO much printed money out there, truly RARE coins may have no top, but I think there is little doubt the largest part of the market must now slow down affected by REAL inflation, and the most expensive coin market in U.S. History.
Likk to Travers 1994 article
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
With so many chasing plastic showing 1 point higher in grading..... seems to me to have gotten some things out of perspective. But then I have never been interested in the Registry set idea myself....
I think we're going to see a lot of activity in modern- issue coins during 1994. By "modern issues," however, I don't mean current coins plucked right out of pocket change; I'm referring to pristine examples of relatively recent issues-- primarily those produced by the Mint from 1934 through 1955. These coins are being submitted with growing frequency to the certification services, and we're learning that they're scarcer than anyone imagined in very high grades such as Mint State-66 and above.
I suggest that you check the population and census reports that are published regularly by PCGS and NGC (and available from those companies) and then seek out the coins whose populations have increased the most. These are the coins I recommend most strongly, since these are the ones most likely to be promoted.
Be careful, though: A speculative bubble could very well develop in this part of the market--and, if so, it could burst. So although there is likely to be a great deal of activity in these coins, there is no guarantee whatsoever that your investment profits will be sustained. If you see a profit of any kind in modern-issue coins, my highest recommendation is to get out, go to the cash window and celebrate.
Wowzer, the guy is an absolute freakin' genius and we need this link at a few other threads this weekend!!!!
thanks, Don. you remain the bomb!!
<< <i>... the biggest ponzi skeem of all is the one that is perpetuated by our elected
leaders in Washington.....they just keep spending money they do not have
to assure their re-elections and make themselves feel good about helping people... >>
Hi quarterguy. But this is exactly what INDIVIDUALS have done with rampant borrowings and heavy mortgages. You blame our elected officials for conduct that you seem to praise in individuals. If you think that I'm wrong, please tell me why. Thanks quarterguy.
How about the classic commems? Anyone have an opinion on these.... will they drop, stay the same, or still looking for more increase?
Well the pewter/puter
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Bust, Seated, and Barber are the 3 torch bearers for 19th century type (all of the gold is of bust design too). Registry sets don't play a role yet unless the series is short and completeable (i.e. enough nice coins around). With Liberty Seated encompassing over 50 years, that's a tough one to complete in gem condition, esp. considering the cost and unavailability of adequate specimens for many dates & mints.
Price rise in type has usually come about by investor/dealer rather than collector demand. The investors and dealers overshadow the demand of collectors. I'm sure a lot of leading dealers have socked away high grade type for themselves and their clients.
Most of Traver's recommendations in that 1994 article were excellent. The whole market was worth 1/4 to 1/3 less as a whole.
Nonetheless he picked out some of the real winners.
roadrunner
Yeah, we all want the blazer, but the prices BEING paid for them is just goofy. People WITH that kind of money ....appreciate..... money. And some must be losing their minds on prices.
I would rather have a FINE 1795 dollar than the equivalent priced gem Barber.
There HAS to be a return on investment BESIDES getting your name in a registry.
Or I'm nuts.
I sorta think coins are entering a phase like traditional art and being accumulated as PORTABLE antiquities.
Or I'm nuts.
<< <i>There HAS to be a return on investment BESIDES getting your name in a registry. >>
I can agree with that tho there are some who don't.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
<< <i>Tincup, if type coins had the REGISTRY demand that any 20th century series currently carries, the prices would be off the chart.
Bust, Seated, and Barber are the 3 torch bearers for 19th century type (all of the gold is of bust design too). Registry sets don't play a role yet unless the series is short and completeable (i.e. enough nice coins around). With Liberty Seated encompassing over 50 years, that's a tough one to complete in gem condition, esp. considering the cost and unavailability of adequate specimens for many dates & mints.
Price rise in type has usually come about by investor/dealer rather than collector demand. The investors and dealers overshadow the demand of collectors. I'm sure a lot of leading dealers have socked away high grade type for themselves and their clients.
roadrunner >>
I suspect that many people would be surprised at the number of truly nice coins dealers have put away for themselves. This may be especially true of smaller store dealers who have been buying from the general public over a long period of time.
One local dealer I know has picked some great coins from the public over the past few years. And rather than turn these over and report a hefty gain he's content to sit on them and watch them go up 10-15% per year (as they have!). He has no use for the money at the moment so why not? As it is often said, dealers are actually "collectors" at heart. Don't underestimate their ability to swing markets based on what they hold and what/when they sell.
roadrunner
<< <i>As a Real Estate Broker and investor I can tell you that in my part of the country
(South Florida) you have to be a fool not to be using other people's money to own
real estate and harvest the 40%+ appreciation per year.
It's like farming except we harvest money not food. And plenty of it!
For the last 10 years many people here have been saying the RE market was over priced
and ready to burst it's bubble......they were wrong then and they are wrong now.
Sitting on the side lines only protects what you have and does little to improve one's situation.
The party might be over for those that choose to go home but some of us are
still partying our a_ _es off!!!
>>
I was selling real estate in California in the late 70s. These were my words exactly. I knew the market was up, up, up and I put all my money into RE.
I lost all three of my properties in 1982.
BTW I have considered a Florida retirement for years. The wife and I have now decided that Hurricaine country is not for us. Good luck but careful not to put all your eggs in one basket.
What you have written above is exactly my point as to the thinking
process of most on this board as regards coin "collecting".
People collect all kinds of things, not just coins, without one thought whatsoever about the investment/resale value of what they purchased. I don't think I'm a fool and I am not filthy rich, but I do have enough disposable income that I don't have to only buy things that will get my money back. If I was in that situation, I would not make a purchase where I needed my money back. Why make the purchase in the first place?
I'm just trying to say that not all people approach coin "collecting" the way it is written about on these boards. There is no one right way to collect. There are ways to collect that will satisfy certain criteria but again the criteria is based on the individual's needs and doesn't have to fit anyone else's needs or even the aggregate's needs.
If your financial situation dictates that you have to worry about the future value of your purchase, so be it. But again, I would suggest that you not make the purchase in the first place.
Joe.
Excellent point!
Excellent point!
Agreed! but there is NO way of knowing what the future may bring. What is fun money today MAY NOT be 5 years from today. Maybe the reason that most of what is in the dealer's cases at shows today is overgraded average junk is that smart collectors have bought smart.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
However, in reality, a collector can buy smart and get a fair deal or a nice coin without necessarily buying for investment. You don't have to be something other than just a collector or hobbyist to have "bought smart".
(i)"Hi quarterguy. But this is exactly what INDIVIDUALS have done with rampant borrowings and heavy mortgages. You blame our elected officials for conduct that you seem to praise in individuals. If you think that I'm wrong, please tell me why."
I have never "praised" anyone for living beyond their means or risking their position on uncertainies. I didn't mean to give that impression.
Investment monies, whether spent on real estate, stocks, or whatever, should NEVER be more than one can afford to loose. It should be money not needed for the necessities of life.
Everyone needs a place to live and I don't think anyone can agree that renting is better than owning. With the interest rates as low as they have been in past years, some have bought more house than they needed but that is not necessarily a bad thing. As long as the borrower is protected with a fixed rate mortgage, he could buy a pricier home for the same monthly payments. With appreciation over the years, the net gain to the owner should be more with the higher priced home. This is a good thing for the average person.
coynclecter
Sorry to hear of your loss in CA.
I understand your feelings about living in hurricane land. At times it does get frustrating thinking about it. But I do not agree what another said here about no boomer in his right mind moving to the south Florida. As a Real Estate Broker I have baises las we all do, but it is a fact that boomers ARE moving here and will continue to do so in the future.
Even as expensive as properties are here, some people moving in from the North East think our prices are low.
I don't see South Florida as any more dangerous living than being in the Midwest dodging tornados or living on the left coast fearing earthquakes. ....and the winters are heaven!!..... where might you live?
in how things interrelate but how things evolve, wax, or wane over time. With everyone doing
what he thinks is best for himself their are many millions of self correcting influences on trends.
We behave like a herd because as individuals we lose sight of the big picture and then always
seem surprised when untenable trends reverse. The stock market was quietly slipping below
800 in July of 1982 and the common wisdom was that it would continue to drift for some time.
After all it had trouble in 1974 and never really recovered and there were no new forces to make
it recover then. But like silver today the market was a coiled spring. The fundamentals were
strong and demographic forces favored a bull market much like silver now. When common wis-
dom is that something is a poor buy then there is little that can happen other than price increases.
If the trends also favor such a move then explosive changes can occur. Similarly in '96 it became
obvious the stock market was overvalued. The common wisdom was that all one had to do was buy
and hold until you raked in obscene profits. Nature even provided some warnings in Oct '96 but
most people just thought of these as buying opportunities. Buying opportunities are for things
that are out of favor, not things that are apparently already fully valued and in full bubble.
It's the same with the coin market. Trends are highly favorable and the collector base is still
growing. There are demographic forces which are also favorable even though these will turn
highly negative in the not so distant future. Yes, there is some speculative activity in the market
simply because there is a lot of concern in collectors and dealers about return and profit. People
tend to pick up things that look cheap even if they aren't needed in their collections. Lots of
people will sock away a roll of this or a box of that because they believe prices are headed higher
and they've got massive paper profits or are heavy in cash.
So is the market about to tank? It seems unlikely. Some of the more speculative areas might
have minor setbacks as collectors pull back to see what's going on but the demand is still growing
so supplies are still dwindling. It's easy to know where the speculation is; look at the coins in
your safety deposit box that you bought because they'd go up. Ask your friends what they've
bought. And, yes, I sincerely hope almost no one said moderns.
But in any case if there's a drop in any of the markets now, it's likely to be short-lived and not
broad based. It won't include ultra moderns or other beginning coins like buffalos and indians.
It probably won't include the true scarcities of the 18th and 19th centuries, and it won't include
many of the coins that haven't participated in the current bull market.
In the long run, I can understand holding on to properties...if you can whether the storm or if you can buy early like your friend did then sure...keep em! I paid 400 per square foot for a place that was worth 100 per square foot four years ago. I dont have (nor do many people that are still buying) that luxury so if I get caught upside down it is ugly.
I am only 29 years old and I havent seen all of the cycles that the generation before me has. That being said, I am smart enough to believe them.
Plus, I am a conservative guy. One has to balance their own comfort level in these areas, and if I am going to be sick to my stomach thinking of what might happen to the market and my family if it turns south, then it might be time to sell. BTW, we used help u sell so the house is costing us a total of 5% to sell...the real estate landscape is changing.
One more btw..., it is LOSE...not loose.
I hope that you do well with your properties...I love to see other people make money and for the middle class to grow. If people are smart, this low interest rate period is a time to do so.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
wonderful Bust Half Collection.
Camelot
game of musical chaires will end, it is obvious that something
unpleasent is about to happen in the not to distant future. While folks
see only an optomistic future, the prudent person acts to hedge their
financial structure.
While many collectors are modest in their purchases,
over a period of time, a coin collection can actually represent a sizable
portion of ones assets. Many peoples sense of security is measured by
what folks consider a secure job or even two jobs in the household, a home
some cash in the bank and all one sees are little bluebirds of happiness flying
over your head. Then all of a sudden, you gey ill or injured and cant work,
your company goes belly up your home is damaged in a manner that is not covered by
insurance, your medical coverage stops and you have to pay mounting bills, your small nestegg of money
is exausted. You turn to your remaining asset, your coin collection.
Let us say that you value the collection
at 20,000 dollars and when you are forced to sell, is in a periodic downturn. It would not be unexpected for your
collection to fall to 10,000 or less or even to find that a portion of your collection will not sell at any price.
As an old timer that has seen much that is bad and has made many poor judgement calls, I find that bad things
happen, at the worst possible times and that misfortune happens in multiples. To hedge ones bets is to consider
the following: Sufficient ready assets to cover living expenses for 3-6 months
At the apparent top of a cycle in coins, sell off a portion and place that money with your ready assets
Do you have a fixed rate on your mortgage? If not why not while they are still at historic lows.
Is short term debt eating up a large portion of your available salery? If so liquidate assets that are profitable
to pay down that debt and hide those credit cards.
Perhaps you dont really need that new truck or car or fancy 3000 dollar TV set. Maybe that expensive vacation
can be posponed to another time. This might not be thebest time to buy that vacation home.
We are living in the eye of a storm , the outlook is dubious at best and those who are smart and prudent will
prepare for the worst while there is yet time. If I am wrong, then I will be most thankfull
However, WHAT IF I AM RIGHT?
Camelot