Low pop cards and the price paid in 2001

2dueces

Just a thought on some modern material and low populations going south. In particular 1990 Score Sup Emmitt Smith. In 2001 a gem mint 10 was $2200. There was just a handful of 10's. But as the price increased more and more boxes were cracked. This was done just because of the price and his popularity then. Now, I dont even have to look at the pop report to know there are plently available and the SMR is $295. Shouldnt this bother every modern collector knowing as the prices of modern go sky high, more and more will be graded and eventually as popularity of the player diminishes, so will the price? Cases and cases of un open matrial just waiting for that hot player to be worth cracking. 1 player comes to mind, Ben Roethlisberger. $525 for his Fleer Hot Prospects card. I guess we can find this thread 4 yrs from now and see. BTW 1989 Score football is another set that has dropped. This product was not over produced, so I dont think modern short runs should be used as a reason for high prices and not many 10's
1989 Score Sanders 2001-$750 today$170...Aikman $500-135...Carter 350-90..
Just my thoughts on a slow day.

Any other high priced cards that are just waiting for a boom to start cracking cases?

Lothar52

AGREED...

and its why in 2002 I decided to start collecting vintage HOFers from Baseball instead of modern football...and then i did set collecting which i have found VERY VERY REWARDING.

Loth

2dueces

Lothar52, Most posters here know that I too collect T206's and vintage baseball postcards of any type. I also have my 60's football and I dont think my PSA 7's and 8's are in too much risk of crashing. These are a joy to collect, but i'm not shelling out mega bucks. I dont want to get into a collecting verses investing post, but thats a mega drop for these cards in just 4 short years.

tkd7

deuces,

I collect baseball stadium postcards myself. I was wondering if you have ever seen vintage Griffith Stadium postcards for sale. I have all the original team's stadiums except Washington, plus minor league stadiums in Los Angeles and Hollywood.

By the way, I've been thinking the same thing about Jeter and Rodriguez rookies, but I think baseball may hold its value better than football.

Boopotts

This problem has been solved (at least in part) by the fact that most desirable cards printed today are serial numbered. It will be very interesting to see what happens to RC's of players that broke into professional sports after 2000. We all have our opinions, but the fact is that nobody really knows. What would a Jerry Rice #'d to 50 RC be worth today? Or an Elway? Or a Clemens?

Additionally, the phenomenon of high grade cards decreasing in value as more examples come to light can also be easily applied to baseball cards printed in 1960 and later. The price for collector grade (8 or better) cards has gone down almost across the board since 2002, and will probably continue to drop as more cards are slabbed.

2dueces

tkd7, Thats wierd because I only collect RPPC's of teams and individual players. I usually pass right by the stadiums cards and crowd shots of games. I will keep a lookout for you for Griffith Stadium.


Boopotts, The serial #d cards are sure to help keep the pops a little lower, but thats also what makes the card so hot in the beginning. Can the card retain its value as the next hot card is printed and the next and 4 or 5 years from now as the new batch of hot cards hit? ALso, the players I mentioned were not specualtive busts, they are all sure HOFer's. Big Ben is far from that yet and thats what is a major problem. Remember Vince Carter craze in 1998? The next MJ. 10's of his SP Auth were $3000 in 2000. Today $200.
I dont know the print runs of SP Auth in 1998 but I'm sure that his card was a pretty hard pull, and a 10 prolly near impossible. I didnt keep up with it then, but I'm sure the packs werent cheap either.

CDsNuts

The Emmitt is an extreme example, but your point is clear. The Sanders 89 Score is more appropriate because Emmitt was about to break the record which is enough to make anyone's cards skyrocket, especially his scarcest and most condition sensitive. Not only did the pop. of this card in high grades increase, but his popularity decreased as he seemed to let his career drag on for a few relatively unproductive years. The major thing about Emmitt was the broken record, because then you get non-collectors buying them up as an investment. It happens every time a major record is broken- Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Manning, Jordan, etc....... Buying a card of a great player in his prime is never good from an investing standpoint- you would want to wait until he cools off (Emmitt now) and brace for the steady climb as the years pass, assuming the market holds. There were plenty of high grade cards to buy in 2001 as an investment, such as just about any non-major PSA 10 from 1975-1987. The twilight of the low pop. cards from the 80s and 90s is quickly coming to an end as more and more product gets broken, ironically because low pop. cards command such a premium. Just compare the pop. from any 80s-90s set in 2001 to now and you'll see what I mean. This phenomenon is going to greatly decrease the supply of unopened material, which is why that is the best thing to invest in right now (if you have enough self-control to not bust it).

As a side note, someone in my brother's fantasy league picked Emmitt for his team. Sometimes it's a good idea to find out who's retired before your draft.

Lee